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CBO Estimate on Revised Kennedy Bill
The AP is reporting that a new estimate of the health care bill coming out of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee has a price tag of $600 billion, while covering 97 percent of Americans -- a stark contrast from the $1 trillion estimate that covered a smaller number of Americans. However, the story is based on a letter from Ted Kennedy and Chris Dodd reporting the CBO findings, but not any CBO report itself.
As liberal health care reporter Jonathan Cohn acknowledges, the $600 billion number does not actually include the expansion of Medicaid, which is expected to add about 20 million people to the program's rolls. Add that, Cohn writes, and you're likely looking at a bill that costs $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion over 10 years. He suggests that it will be deficit neutral once you factor in proposed cuts to Medicare, other savings, and tax increases.
The problem is, there's a big debate over how to raise revenue. Obama's proposal to cap the charitable deduction on wealthy Americans is not popular on the Hill, while the idea of taxing employer benefits has drawn fire of unions. That said, I'm going to reserve further comment until I can look at the actual CBO findings.
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hsr0601| 7.2.09 @ 8:25PM
The independently-funded healthcare policy research organization, The Commonwealth Fund, compared possible savings 'a health insurance exchange' could bring under three different scenarios. One would include a Medicare-like plan along with private insurance. Another would instead offer only a government-run plan with rates somewhat higher than Medicare. The final one would be private insurance with no government plan at all.
Commonwealth's study found cumulative health system savings between 2010 and 2020, compared with projected trends for that period, would range from $3.0 trillion under a Medicare-like plan along with private insurance paying providers at Medicare rates in competition with private plans, to $2.0 trillion for a public plan paying providers at rates between Medicare and private plan rates, to $1.2 trillion in the private plan-only scenario. All three options would help insure nearly all Americans, it said, with the number of uninsured dropping to about 4 million people by 2012. 'Such an exchange' would offer a central point for consumers to shop for and compare health plans.
Under the Medicare-like plan along with private insurance, all U.S. residents would be required to obtain health coverage. The plan would establish a new government-sponsored health program for people younger than age 65 who are not eligible for Medicare. More than 40 million people would be expected to enroll in the program, according to Cathy Schoen of the Commonwealth Fund.
The government-operated insurance exchange would be similar to an existing program in Massachusetts and would allow people to compare coverage offered by private insurers and the new public program. In addition, the plan supports wide adoption of health information technology, better disease prevention efforts and 'changes to the insurance payment system' that promote efficiency. Health spending would continue to increase under the plan, but at a slower rate than current projections over the next 10 years. The Commonwealth Fund said the plan would reduce annual health care spending growth from a projected 6.7% to 5.5% and save a cumulative total of about '$3 trillion' by 2020, adding a national health insurance exchange program that includes a federally managed health insurance option could potentially save $1.8 trillion more than a plan consisting only of private plans.
The group's analysis assumed other changes would also be made to the U.S. healthcare market. These include an expansion of existing government coverage and new regulations that would require insurers to cover a wider range of consumers. Hospitals and doctors would also see their revenues grow with any of the three exchanges but at a slower rate, the report said.
The proposal's advocates have argued that a government-sponsored insurance plan would offer the 46 million uninsured Americans an affordable alternative to costly private insurance, adding that It would provide a strong incentive for private plans to strealine, innovate and compete.
Thank You !
Jim O'Brien| 7.2.09 @ 8:48PM
The Democrats' estimates of how much more their socialized medicine plans will cost are totally bogus. First, they deliberately low-ball the numbers; i.e, the lie about it. Second, no one knows how much all this "free" medical care would cost. Most likely, even the highest current estimates are far too optimistic. But one thing is certain: there will never be enough taxpayers to pay for it all.
We have too much government involvement in medical care already. What we need is more free enterprise, which always results in more choices, better quality, easy access, and lower prices. Government is the problem, not the solution.
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