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While Democrats still have the power and the momentum in the health care debate, and the odds are in favor of at least some form of legislation getting passed, there's also an increasing possibility that this whole thing can come apart, and I think a good parallel is the Bush administration's push for comprehensive immigration reform.

Obviously, there are significant differences in the circumstances, not the least of which is President Obama's clout. But the dynamics are similar in this sense. During the immigration debate, you had Democrats in Congress who weren't eager to give President Bush a legislative accomplishment on a significant issue and then the conservative base was angry about what it saw as a Republican sell-out on an amnesty bill. Eventually, everything unraveled.

As I reported last week, we've moved beyond the happy talk stage of the health care debate and some of the familiar fault lines are beginning to form. The American Medical Association has come out against a government-run plan (at least in its pure form), business groups are worried about the employer mandate, and Republicans are starting to raise a fuss about how Democrats are trying to ram through legislation. So, if Democrats want to pass something, it's quite likely at this point that they'll have to drop the government-run plan (which Democrat Sen. Kent Conrad, chairman of the Budget Committee, said they don't have the votes to pass). However, from the mindset of liberal activists, including those who plan to spend $82 million to push for health care legislation, if Congress ditches the government plan, they'll be left with legislation that provides subsidies for individuals to purchase private insurance. To liberals, this isn't real reform, but merely pumping more money into a broken system. If Democrats try to reassure the base and urge liberals to accept the best deal that can pass, those lawmakers will sound a lot like the Republicans who tried to convince the conservative base that the comprehensive immigration reform didn't represent amnesty and would be a step forward on border security and enforcement. So, if you combine more or less unified Republican opposition with an uprising among the liberal base over a compromise on the government plan, you begin to see how this health care push can explode before it even comes to a vote.

View all comments (7) | Leave a comment

rssg| 6.15.09 @ 1:09PM

I agree. Barry al Hussein's plans may, repeat, may fall apart as more and more Americans start to pay attention to a potential full government "comman and control" of healthcare.

al Hussein is a uber government planner. Command and control is what he's all about, for that's "social justice" to him. Equally outcomes.

Stephen Morgan| 6.15.09 @ 1:21PM

Just Like everything else he's destroyed, Barry Sotero is trying to "Ni$$er rig" the health care system

JP| 6.15.09 @ 2:05PM

In its current form, at least 2 Democratic Senators said they would vote against Obama Care -Senators Mary Landrieu of LA, and Senator Bayh of Indiana. Senator Casey of Pennsylvania is up for re-election next year, and Virginia Senator Webb has his Blue Dog creds to protect. As it stands now, the GOP could successfully pull off a filibuster if need be.

Poll after poll indicate that at least 60% of the insured are not willing to give up thier coverage in order for Obama to guarentee everyone coverage. Americans have been down this road before, and they do not want rationing.

I always thought this was a politcal mistake for Obama. All of the so-called grass-roots momentuem for Universal Health Care was manufactured in liberal think tanks. Obama could get his first defeat this summer and his has only himself to blame.

betwyan| 6.15.09 @ 2:40PM

As said above, the Alien in Chief is a big time "central planner". That's who and what he is.

If central planning works so well, why did the USSR go kaput? Why did Red China (partially) turn to a more market oriented system? And why does Cuba have 1959 model year cars instead of 2009 models?

Barry is an academic, who led a priviledged life, never really worked in his life, never worked for a job that wasn't a taxpayer funded, government job.

All of that, plus he is a quasi Muslim with sympathies for our adversaries. Smart, really smart to elect an anti-American, socialist, muslim to the White House. Can you say self-hate?

L. Ross| 6.15.09 @ 3:45PM

Betwyan:

Amen, brother. Amen.

jacksmith| 6.16.09 @ 1:03AM

AMERICA’S NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY!

It’s official. America and the World are now in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. A World EPIDEMIC with potential catastrophic consequences for ALL of the American people. The first PANDEMIC in 41 years. And WE THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES will have to face this PANDEMIC with the 37th worst quality of healthcare in the developed World.

STAND READY AMERICA TO SEIZE CONTROL OF YOUR NATIONAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.

We spend over twice as much of our GDP on healthcare as any other country in the World. And Individual American spend about ten times as much out of pocket on healthcare as any other people in the World. All because of GREED! And the PRIVATE FOR PROFIT healthcare system in America.

And while all this is going on, some members of congress seem mostly concern about how to protect the corporate PROFITS! of our GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT NATIONAL DISGRACE. A PRIVATE FOR PROFIT DISGRACE that is in fact, totally valueless to the public health. And a detriment to national security, public safety, and the public health.

Progressive democrats and others should stand firm in their demand for a robust public option for all Americans, with all of the minimum requirements progressive democrats demanded. If congress can not pass a robust public option with at least 51 votes and all robust minimum requirements, congress should immediately move to scrap healthcare reform and demand that President Obama declare a state of NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY! Seizing and replacing all PRIVATE FOR PROFIT health insurance plans with the immediate implementation of National Healthcare for all Americans under the provisions of HR676 (A Single-payer National Healthcare Plan For All).

Coverage can begin immediately through our current medicare system. With immediate expansion through recruitment of displaced workers from the canceled private sector insurance industry. Funding can also begin immediately by substitution of payroll deductions for private insurance plans with payroll deductions for the national healthcare plan. This is what the vast majority of the American people want. And this is what all objective experts unanimously agree would be the best, and most cost effective for the American people and our economy.

In Mexico on average people who received medical care for A-H1N1 (Swine Flu) with in 3 days survived. People who did not receive medical care until 7 days or more died. This has been the same results in the US. But 50 million Americans don’t even have any healthcare coverage. And at least 200 million of you with insurance could not get in to see your private insurance plans doctors in 2 or 3 days, even if your life depended on it. WHICH IT DOES!

Contact congress and your representatives NOW! AND SPREAD THE WORD!

God Bless You

Jacksmith – WORKING CLASS

roy aldrie| 8.4.09 @ 4:04PM

"If congress can not pass a robust public option with at least 51 votes and all robust minimum requirements, congress should immediately move to scrap healthcare reform and demand that President Obama declare a state of NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY!"

Amen to that !!

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