The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : Study Forecasts Potential Shift of 131 Mln to Government-Run Health Care

Text Size

The Spectacle Blog

Study Forecasts Potential Shift of 131 Mln to Government-Run Health Care

By Philip Klein on 4.6.09 @ 5:52PM

One of the major fights in the upcoming health care push will be over whether the legislation should allow Americans the option of enrolling in a newly created government-run plan. President Obama said that the so-called public option was a way to "keep the private sector honest" and Howard Dean, among others within the movement, has argued that this should be the hill to die on for progressives. "If Barack Obama's healthcare plan gets changed to exclude a public option like Medicare, then it is not healthcare reform," he declared in launching a new health care grassroots effort.

But an analysis released today by the Lewin Group, a health care consulting firm, confirms what conservatives have argued all along - that the creation of a public option would shift more and more people from private health care to government health care, thus creating a single-payer, or socialized health care system, over a period of time.

The group considers several variations of a public option. In one case, it would be open to everybody, including large businesses, and in another case it would be restricted to individuals and small firms. Either way, the results are alarming:

If as the President proposed, eligibility is limited to only small employers, individuals and the self-employed, public plan enrollment would reach 42.9 million people. The number of people with private coverage would fall by 32.0 million people....

If the public plan is opened to all employers as proposed by Senators Clinton and Edwards, at Medicare payment levels we estimate that about 131.2 million people would enroll in the public plan. The number of people with private health insurance would decline by 119.1 million people. This would be a two-thirds reduction in the number of people with private coverage (currently 170 million people).

If private reimbursement rates are paid to doctors and hospitals rather than lower Medicare reimbursements, the shift to the public plan would not be as dramatic.

However, if government uses its bargaining power to restrict payments to doctors and hospitals as it does under Medicare, Lewin estimates that doctors' pay will shrink by $33.1 billion in 2010 and hospitals' earnings will drop by $36 billion.

As Heritage notes, as it is, more and more doctors are opting out of Medicare because of the low reimbursement rates. What will happen if 131.2 million more people start paying at the same reduced rate?

View all comments (12) | Leave a comment

jharp| 4.6.09 @ 6:20PM

Ahhh. A little competition for the health insurers. I welcome this change.

It's almost like you believe the government plan is going to be a much more attractive option.

And if you don't like it guess what? Stick with the plan you have now.

Now that isn't so complicated, is it?

johnnysquares| 4.6.09 @ 9:01PM

Yeah, competition between a (relatively speaking) flexible private entity and a beauracratic quagmire that pays doctors less for the same service given 2 similar patients.

This is a sure fire way to create 2 America's. One where middle management and above get private health as part of their benefit package and everyone else is consigned to the discount bin.

jon| 4.6.09 @ 9:51PM

Why did you not mention that the public plan would be over 20% cheaper? Why do you want people to be force to buy more expensive private health care? What is the point of having a "free market" if the market produces a more expensive inferior product.

Big Leo| 4.6.09 @ 11:08PM

jon,
Since doctors are opting out of Medicare in favor of treating patients with private insurance, the pool of doctors for all the government patients will be too small. The best doctors will choose to take less patients for more money. That's what the free market will do-- create a shortage of doctors for cheesy government care and a good supply of doctors for higher paying private insurance-- just like Britain. As always, the free market produces the better product.

Patty McCredie| 4.6.09 @ 11:16PM

Why do most doctors support "Medicare for all"? Because they are spending so much precious time dealing with the bureaucracy (and paying others to help them), and they are tired of having insurance companies tell them what they are allowed to do for their patients. I am not so cynical that I believe that at least half of doctors care more about their patients' health than their profits. Or, at least as much.

Why are we stuck in the position of having to beg private insurers for our health? Are the private marketeers afraid of competition?? I too welcome this change.

jharp| 4.6.09 @ 11:20PM

Big Leo| 4.6.09 @ 11:08PM

"Since doctors are opting out of Medicare in favor of treating patients with private insurance, the pool of doctors for all the government patients will be too small. The best doctors will choose to take less patients for more money. That's what the free market will do-- create a shortage of doctors for cheesy government care and a good supply of doctors for higher paying private insurance-- just like Britain. As always, the free market produces the better product."

Then stick with the health insurance you have now.

Why are you even the slightest bit concerned?

After all, according to George Bush everyone is covered now. All one needs to do is go to the emergency room.

Big Leo| 4.7.09 @ 1:01AM

Patty,
If you think doctors are tired of having insurance companies telling them what to do, just what until they have government telling them what they can do. That's why so many Canadian doctors have emigrated to the United States.

Dr. Bob| 4.7.09 @ 9:32PM

The ultimate result will be rationing of health care with bureaucrats making the rules. Disaster for all patients.

MT| 4.8.09 @ 1:29AM

The elite will still have good medical care--they always take good care of themselves. Slimeballs.

jim| 4.8.09 @ 11:17PM

What a biased report, Lewin Group is FULLY OWNED by UnitedHealth Group.

Frances Griffin| 4.10.09 @ 6:10AM

Wow. I checked it out. It is true. Lewin Group is owned by an PRIVATE INSURANCE COMPANY. Wow, could they possibly have a bias against the public option?
As for worries about government taking over healthcare: Newsflash! Insurance is not healthcare!
Blue Cross and Aetna do not perform surgery! Public option Medicare docs do not work for the government. They are in private practice.