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The Public Policy
The Jobless Recovery and Its Structures
The liberals in power face an economic problem that could become a political one as well.
When the Democrats took control of the White House in 2008, they inherited, along with the burden of a deep worldwide recession, the enormous promise of the political capital guaran-teed to accrue to whoever presided over an economic recovery. Indeed, many forecasters are tentatively predicting such a turnaround. Even assuming the rosiest projections come true, however, there remains a looming threat to the incumbents’ agenda and reelection chances, not to mention the country’s well-being: the jobless recovery.
Barack Obama and company would not be the first political victims of a jobless recovery. When Bill Clinton successfully framed his 1992 campaign’s rhetoric with “it’s the economy, stupid,” the country was actually no longer in a recession, gross domestic product (GDP, a measure of a country’s total production) growth having resumed in March of 1991. The fact that the recovery was “jobless,” meaning that unemployment stayed high long after GDP began growing, undermined George H. W. Bush’s chances. The Obama administration knows that, despite recent improvements in the economic outlook, a jobless recovery will have Obama facing the same criticisms Bush I faced — and also that if recent history holds up, a jobless recovery is likely.
The past two recessions have broken previous downturns’ patterns of GDP growth and unemployment. In 1962 the Yale economist Arthur Okun developed a rule of thumb, soon known as Okun’s Law, that every 2 percent decrease of GDP from potential output (what the economy could produce if it were functioning at full capacity) is related to a 1 percent increase in unemployment. From WWII through the late 1980s, this relationship held fairly closely.
The recovery from the 1991 recession, however, featured an employment outlook that actually worsened as GDP grew: it was not until more than four years after the official end of the recession that there were more Americans employed than before the recession began. The recovery after the 2001 recession was similarly jobless. Unemployment did not peak until the recession had officially ended, and remained high even into 2004.
The current downturn, which began in December 2007, is the third consecutive recession to defy Okun’s Law. Unemployment has increased at a faster rate than the law would predict, ballooning to 9.8 percent without a correspondingly huge drop in GDP. And even as most economists believe the recession is over or nearly over, job losses continue to pile up. Assuming that the turnaround is for real and we’ve escaped the worst of the recession (no small assumption), the question isn’t whether we’ll have another jobless recovery, but whether it will be even worse than the previous two episodes. The situation hasn’t escaped the political radar of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who in October told the press that the “number-one subject on the minds of the American people” was “jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs.”
The most recent unemployment statistics must terrify the president, especially because his policy options are constrained by economists’ lack of understanding of the causes of jobless recoveries.
There are a few competing theories. Economists of a statist or Keynesian bent tend to posit that modern managers are quicker to fire employees and squeeze extra productivity out of their remaining workers, and then explore why that might be so. For instance, executive compensation schemes have changed since the 1980s, resulting in more incentives for managers to keep profits high by laying off under-exploited workers. Another example: highly trained workers are no longer as important as brand image, technology, and flexibility, and consequently they are the first asset to go in a downturn.
There is a more compelling, more market-based explanation that borrows insights from Austrian-style economists like Joseph Schumpeter and Chicago business cycle theorists like Fischer Black. It focuses on the changes that the modern labor market has undergone, and explores the possibility that recessions now cause structural, as opposed to cyclical, changes in hiring. Cyclical changes are responses to the business cycle: companies across all industries tighten their belts and start laying off employees when austerity threatens, but then rehire the workers they laid off when good times roll again.
A structural change in the labor market, on the other hand, occurs when hiring patterns change not as a function of economic fluctuations, but because of shifts in the economy’s production that reallocate workers among industries. In other words, a mismatch between what consumers demand and what producers are making necessitates a shake-up in the mix of industries. Perhaps the most familiar example of a structural change is the Industrial Revolution, when, starting in the 18th century, Great Britain’s labor force transitioned from manual labor to machine-aided manufacturing jobs in great numbers.
This hypothesis makes sense intuitively, because it is much easier for workers to slip back into their old jobs than to find a new line of work. The employment recovery following a downturn will be much slower if, to expand on the Industrial Revolution example, the laid-off worker has to pack his bags and leave the farm, move to the city, and learn how to operate and maintain a steam engine.
The difference between Okun’s days and the present is that we now have recessions with structural shifts. Two reasons for this come to mind. First, modern technologically advanced firms do a better job calculating their optimal amount of labor without resorting to temporary layoffs — if they downsize, they downsize permanently because their industry is shrinking. Second, thanks to wiser officials and the lessons of time, the Federal Reserve is less likely to mismanage the money supply and create recessions entailing mass temporary layoffs owing to an artificial scarcity of money. Of course, the Fed still can only do so much to anticipate real scarcity and structural changes.
The beauty of the structural change theory of jobless recoveries is that it is testable. If hiring is determined by shifts in what the economy produces, then the data will show that permanent layoffs outnumber temporary layoffs — that is, workers aren’t returning to their old companies. Also, there would be noticeable differences in hiring and firing patterns between different industries before and after the recession. The market would determine in which activities firms were overinvested, and which were ripe for further growth.
The data does seem to conform to the theory. In a 2003 study, Federal Reserve economists Erica L. Groshen and Simon Potter found that in past recessions, temporary layoffs spiked. They also found that the two recent jobless recoveries involved clear winning and losing industries, a conclusion they arrived at by looking at payrolls in different industries before and after the recession. The industry that best exemplifies this trend is the dot-com boom of the the late '90s. During the recession of 2001 it became clear that there was a bubble in web companies, and the industry began rapidly to shed trained workers. The extreme over-investment in the dot-com bubble is an identifiable reason why the job reports were so bleak so long after the end of the downturn. It simply took a long time for the economy to shake out where the former dot-com workers belonged. One industry, notably, that did take off in the wake of the ‘01 recession was…housing.
With economic “green shoots” — encouraging signs — cropping up even as the employment outlook languishes, the current recession seems to follow the precedents set by the past two. As for structural changes, no one knows what the next big thing will be, but it doesn’t seem to difficult to guess which industries will be pruned, most apparently the housing industry. John Cochrane of Chicago memorably suggested that the recession meant that the construction industry should contract: “People who spend their lives pounding nails in Nevada need something else to do.”
If the recessions of 1991 and 2001 are any indication, unemployment will be a serious problem for a while. Furthermore, the current recession includes a banking crisis, which will likely create difficulties that we were spared in the previous two jobless recoveries. With the financial system still in disarray, lenders and borrowers are less able to get credit to new engines of growth and employment that need financing. Edward Knotek of the Kansas City Federal Reserve estimates, based on a review of the past two jobless recoveries and recoveries in countries that simultaneously suffered a banking crisis, that a middle-of-the-road projection has unemployment increasing beyond 10 percent and remaining at that level through 2011.
About the Author
Joseph Lawler, former managing editor of The American Spectator, is editor of Real Clear Policy. Follow him on twitter: @josephlawler.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (112) | Leave a comment
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Pingback| 12.14.09 @ 6:59AM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : The Jobless Recovery and Its Structu links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
J. Kelley| 12.14.09 @ 7:35AM
The question has to be, do they want the economy to recover? They have not done anything to make it recover. If nothing had been done we would be in recovery now.Perhaps they want the system to decline so much they can create a new Central system with Democrats in power with Show elections. This is the plan of many of Obama's friends. Or it might be they don't have a clue about economics, it has to be one or the other.
SpiralArchitect| 12.14.09 @ 11:31PM
When there is no emergency or peril for the hero to step in and save everyone from the next logical step is to create said situation.
Next time something bad happens, everyone will eagerly seek out the hero to again save the day.
Mattled| 12.14.09 @ 7:48AM
This has to be purposeful. No one in their right mind expects this administrations policies to work in the real world.
Government jobs grew by 9.9% in the last year.
More folks on the Gov teat, the better for Chairman Zero.
Zero didn't expect this kind of push back, backlash and unpopularity. He's accustomed to leading an incomprehensible insularity unlike ever seen before since the Soviet days.
Now he goes on 60 Minutes (unchallenged) and claims it's the banks "fat cat" attitude holding us back.
Yeah, right.
He's the Fat Cat and the sooner someone does a photo shop of him as the fat cat, the better.
He takes his voters for morons (they are) and CBS takes it's viewers for imbeciles (they are).
Mattled| 12.14.09 @ 8:00AM
The Won stated last week that the Republicans couldn't find one economist who disagreed with his job creating/economic policies (something like that).
May I suggest Thomas Sowell---and Walter Williams?
Of course he will look at them in disdain as being sellouts to their race.
With a -19% approval gap, I look forward to Dear Leader being in the 30's by early next year again exceeding my wildest expectations.
You go Boy-Woman Dear Leader!!
Sue| 12.14.09 @ 8:35AM
Good grief! A lot of words. I give you two thoughts - "What's in the pantry? Do I need to go to the grocery store?"
Inventories and production. That's it. If you have too much that's not moving, you don't produce. If you have too little that is moving, you produce.
Profit - what a company will pay you to produce;
Company profit - what a company can obtain byselling what you produce.
Inventory - product a company holds for selling.
It's not rocket science.
Services industry - wealth-killers and prosperity destruction.
No country can survive on a "service" industry no matter what snake-oil this president tries to sell us.
SpiralArchitect| 12.14.09 @ 11:27PM
Rocket science ?
No.
I remember years back, the Testers company made many (toy) rockets. It would seem that all we have now are a bunch of " Testers Reps ".
JP| 12.14.09 @ 9:01AM
Lawler hit many of the points concerning recovery, or lack thereof. In the high tech field, advances in bandwidth capabilities, easier to manage networking software, as well as the availability of low cost information workers in Asia have decimated a field that once held great promise. On the one hand, many small to medium sized business can either manage thier own IT infrastructure or outsource the work to a large IT outfit in Asia.
But IT is not the only field seeing these changes. Construction, manufacturing, finance, distribution are just a few of the areas seeing jobless growth.
Fortune 1000 firms are currently under great pressure to recoup at least some of thier 2008 losses. As a result, they are moving more and more of thier operations overseas where the labor force is cheaper. I also might add, many are anticipating significant increases in the costs of doing business here in the US. Whether it is ObamaCare or Cap and Trade, these companies have read the tea leaves and are moving large chunks of thier business elsewhere.
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 9:21AM
Well Sue,
Perhaps it truly is "rocket science".
Having run two very large companies...then starting up two very successful companies from scratch, I do understand the billions of variables.
Just to name a few key things that are totally out of whack....
1. A government totally hostile to growing businesses.
2. An imbalance on adhering to the "laffer curve" of revenue rates vs. revenue collection.
3. Government trying to usurp the means of production...of goods AND...services.
4. A huge percentage of our population on an inter-generational or multi-generational...dole.
5. A total imbalance between paper shufflers, versus paper manufacturers due to over-regulation and government reporting requirements.
6. Gazxillions of man/woman hours spent commuting to and from offices at the same times rather than flex time combined with tele-commuting.
7. Working capital and growth capital being siphoned off to provide for the dole.
8. Exporting our manufacturing jobs overseas combined with importing labor to build and maintain ...everything.
9. Preventing resource development due to the whack-job greenies following...their very crafty leaders.
Well, we all get the drift.
The most insiduous problem of all though is the quiet drift among so much of our population to risk aversion encouraged by our would-be masters.
c. j. acworth| 12.14.09 @ 4:50PM
Ken: As I read the article the thought that came to me is what you have as #1 on your list. With all the new taxes and mandates for energy and health care in the wind, what manager in his right mind is going to hire new workers. This administration holds business in contempt and has not a clue the damage the mere threat of their program is doing.
Thank you Joseph Lawler| 12.14.09 @ 10:06AM
Your story is a great example of a good partisan piece that deals with the issue at hand & gives solid facts, unlike all the other right-wing propaganda .
Dan Hirsch| 12.14.09 @ 10:07AM
If Fisher Black's 'structural change theory' is correct, by gutting the financial services, mortage banking, automobile, electricity, and health care sectors of our economy President Obama and the Democrat House and Democrat Senate are basically throwing those industries into re-organization. So those industries are undergoing permanent shrinkage while Federal Government is up dramatically.
I used to be disappointed that my kids all headed into government jobs - now I feel that they will do better than I did. Unless, of course, the whole thing collapses under the weight of the currency printing presses feeding blossoming entitlements and exploding debt.
Just how smart is this fellow Obama, anyway? Or is this what he wants?
Dan H.
Paris, WI
theory is correct
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 10:08AM
Oh, I forgot to say, " Goood Mooorning OooooL Texicaaaan."
=)
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 10:18AM
J. Kelley| 12.14.09 @ 7:35AM
The question has to be, do they want the economy to recover? They have not done anything to make it recover.
------
That cost money. Are you prepared to live with the price that the government will pay in borrowed cash to accomplish your goal, or are you just looking for ways to disagree.
The conservatives seem to have something gain if Obama choose to do nothing. They also have everything to lose if our unemployment starts to lower.
JP| 12.14.09 @ 11:36AM
Marcell,
Have you not noticed that Obama and the Dems have already borrowed and spent over $1.5 trillion since Jan 2009. And since Jan 2009 over 4 million jobs have been lost.
Here's a hint the govenment doesn't create wealth; it only consumes it.
Stephen Zierak| 12.14.09 @ 10:32AM
As many of us conservatives and libertarians are re-reading Atlas Shrugged, perhaps the Obamamessiah should read it as well. He would love, love, love Directive 10-289. This would be right up his alley, and the Dhimmicrats and RINOs would just love a government policy that stabilized things so nothing could change. No messy creative destruction, no further layoffs, time for the economy to just catch its breath! Ayn Rand has the solution for the government lovers! How paradoxical! And, of course, there are really not any John Galts around, are there? Well, are there?
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 10:39AM
Fortune 1000 firms are currently under great pressure to recoup at least some of thier 2008 losses. As a result, they are moving more and more of thier operations overseas where the labor force is cheaper. I also might add, many are anticipating significant increases in the costs of doing business here in the US. Whether it is ObamaCare or Cap and Trade, these companies have read the tea leaves and are moving large chunks of thier business elsewhere.
-----
I believe that the playing field has long been set up for large businesses to export our jobs over seas, because our society believes that we should have benefits like retirement plans & employer based health care packages. Might I add, we also want to get paid enough to live lavish, once we get our expensive college degrees.
I must say, "What a clever way to attack ObamaCare or Cap and Trade."
JP| 12.14.09 @ 11:32AM
Nice strawman Marcell. Businesses do not leave because they have to offer health care benefits or 401k plans. They do leave because they can no longer compete in the global market. You seem to forget that in some markets (ie automotive), the US actually benefits from Asian in sourcing. But in the highly competitive markets such as consumer electronics, telecommunications, finance, and manufacturing, the US is no longer where it is at. Corporations are not established to lose money or turn 1% margins.
Face it Marcell, you Libs have gotten what you wanted for decades. The US is fact becoming just another France or Great Britain.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 12:14PM
Are you saying that the cost for labor doesn't play a major role in the reason why companies move overseas where their labor costs are far far far far far lower than our in the U.S.?
JP| 12.14.09 @ 12:47PM
Marcell,
You ever hear of TCO or ROI? Labor costs are only one parameter as the US firms who outsourced toothpaste and drywall have found out.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 1:04PM
Why toothpaste and drywall Outsourced?
-----------
The Theory / Law of Global Trade Deals
From a Buddhist point of view, mathematics and science explain how things happen, but not why. Like science, Buddhism acknowledges the law of cause and effect in nature and physics, called niyamas (see footnote), but also includes the mental law of cause and effect.
This law works exactly like gravity or inertia. It is not run by observant gods punishing or rewarding people. If your friend jumped off a cliff and died, you wouldn't look up to the sky and cry out "Curse you gravity for killing my friend!" Similarly, if you constantly cause harm to other people and constantly have bad luck, there is no point blaming the gods or even the law of cause and effect itself.
You make your choices (likened to seeds in Buddhism). You bear the results (likened to fruit).
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 1:13PM
We both know that a business can maximize their profits by lowering their production costs, so don't act as if the wages for the people doing the work does not play a major role in why businesses move over seas.
Define: TCO
Total cost of ownership (TCO) is a financial estimate. Its purpose is to help consumers and enterprise managers determine direct and indirect costs of a product or system. It is a management accounting concept that can be used in full cost accounting or even Ecological economics where it includes social costs.
Define: ROI
A performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit (return) of an investment is divided by the cost of the investment; the result is expressed as a percentage or a ratio.
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 10:42AM
Well Stephen,
Heh...two problems with precisely "going galt".
First...Galt had an "engine" that was a thousand years beyond it's time.
Second, there were no sattlelites in his day that had mapped every inch of the globe...so no "hidden valleys" now.
Having said that, there are a bunch of us Galts out here. Please see my on the blog about...
Warming taking water here today. A doable variation on going galt.
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 10:49AM
O heck,
I will shamelessly copy my comment here once again.
The twits got busy Friday mouthing off, and I wrote :
Ladies and gentlemen,
I cannot express my delight well enough. I don't have the words.
When these little twits throw stuff at me, each of you get a deeper and deeper understanding of how confused they truly are.
Each of you begin to understand that they have no clue about what happens if they actually get their fantasies come true, and we productive citizens are successfully harnessed like mules to do their plowing for them.
When, like the stubborn mules we are, we sit down in our harnesses.....they literally starve.
Let me repeat that. They may literally starve to death.
They are nothing more than parasites on our society, and if they got their way, they would kill the very "mules" that sustain their non-productive little lives.
Fortunately for America, they are a small lunatic fringe. It is simply beyond them to ever understand the complex, fragile, economic infrastructure upon which they rest their weary little heads.
It is simply beyond them to even imagine the "Mule" truck driver not delivering their food on time, or the mule farmer refusing to plant a crop for a year.
In their wildest imaginings, they cannot picture what their world would be like if the “mules”in the oil fields simply closed the valves, and the mules in the coal mines parked their equipment....for even a month.
As I sat quietly last evening I found myself weighing and balancing government power versus the power of we who know how to do all the things that the twits do not:
. ...planting...harvesting...engineering...building...wiring...practicing medicine ...delivering ...milling ... etc. ad finitum.
Do they really believe we will do all these things we know how to do… at the point of a gun?
For many years in our country, small groups practicing civil disobedience have caused some serious “inconveniences” across the country.
The twits still do not understand that we "mules" will, sooner than later, run out of patience. We won’t even have to indulge in civil disobedience on any large scale. We will only have to take a month’s vacation with our feet up…and watch the lights, (uh electricity), go out coast to coast, while we watch the food-store shelves gradually empty.
So, in the final analysis, if the twits got their fondest wishes, they would be the twits ground under the consequences first…and worst…by their own best buddies in the gubmint.
As I cast my final thoughts into the future last evening, I realized once again that next November, (2010), if the communists manage to rig the elections, or indeed somehow make them irrelevant, then DECEMBER is the very best month to put our feet up, or to use an earlier metaphor…simply sit down in our harnesses for a month…with a long cold winter on the way.
You know…I slept very well.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 11:21AM
Atlas Shrugged is a novel by Ayn Rand, first published in 1957 in the United States. This was Rand's fourth, longest and last novel, and she considered it her magnum opus in the realm of fiction writing.[1] As indicated by its working title The Strike, the book explores a dystopian United States where leading innovators, ranging from industrialists to artists, refuse to be exploited by society. The protagonist, Dagny Taggart, sees society collapse around her as the government increasingly asserts control over all industry, while society's most productive citizens, led by the mysterious John Galt, progressively disappear.
-------
Conservatives are strange people, because they buy in to any conspiracy that fits their hate for government or those whom they fear. I know that we can fix our minds to believe anything, & it is just as easy for me to be well informed & gullible to any liberal idea as it is for you with conservatism. But, at some point, we have to wake up & smell the coffee by using the same lens that we use to judge others to judge ourselves, & our heart felt causes, or we will become victims of our own circumstances, thus we become gullible.
I have wondered / obsessed on finding the reason why you conservatives believe the way you do for years. Because, it is fascinating, & it helps me understand you. I also believe that most of you conservatives are victims of an industry that is flourishing from its manipulation & control over your thoughts, meaning control over you. The same is true for many blacks who buy into Black Nationalism.
Exhibit A | 12.14.09 @ 9:30PM
I also believe that most of you conservatives are victims of an industry that is flourishing from its manipulation & control over your thoughts, meaning control over you.
------
Newt Gingrich: Impeach judges - Crush and Replace the Left - 2012 "Victory or Death!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjfMjjce2Y
Pingback| 12.14.09 @ 11:37AM
how to get rid of greasy hair FOREVER? | Hair Care Beauty Wisdom links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 11:44AM
cannot express my delight well enough. I don't have the words.
When these little twits throw stuff at me, each of you get a deeper and deeper understanding of how confused they truly are.
Each of you begin to understand that they have no clue about what happens if they actually get their fantasies come true, and we productive citizens are successfully harnessed like mules to do their plowing for them.
When, like the stubborn mules we are, we sit down in our harnesses.....they literally starve.
Let me repeat that. They may literally starve to death.
They are nothing more than parasites on our society, and if they got their way, they would kill the very "mules" that sustain their non-productive little lives.
------------------
I asked myself, "What is the best way to discribe my impression of your true thoughts."
Here it goes:
This is what will happen to our society if conservatives allow the liberals culture to flourish is your communities.
GHOST RIDE IT
The people in your PURE comminitees will become idiots & it will look like this after they repugnant liberals take crontol over your wealth.
Ghost Ride the Farm
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 11:46AM
This is what will happen to our society if conservatives allow the liberals culture to flourish is your communities.
GHOST RIDE IT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPNJjL9iznY
The people in your PURE comminitees will become idiots & it will look like this after they repugnat liberals take crontol over your wealth.
Ghost Ride the Farm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hcaJNQkj2I
Willie Lynch / Ol Texican | 12.14.09 @ 11:58AM
In their wildest imaginings, they cannot picture what their world would be like if the “mules”in the oil fields simply closed the valves, and the mules in the coal mines parked their equipment....for even a month.
As I sat quietly last evening I found myself weighing and balancing government power versus the power of we who know how to do all the things that the twits do not:
. ...planting...harvesting...engineering...building...wiring...practicing medicine ...delivering ...milling ... etc. ad finitum.
----------------
CARDINAL PRINCIPLES
FOR MAKING A NEGRO
For fear that our future Generations may not understand the principles of breaking both of the beast together, the n-word and the horse. We understand that short range planning economics results in periodic economic chaos; so that to avoid turmoil in the economy, it requires us to have breath and depth in long range comprehensive planning, articulating both skill sharp perceptions. We lay down the following principles for long range comprehensive economic planning. Both horse and n-words is no good to the economy in the wild or natural state. Both must be BROKEN and TIED together for orderly production. For orderly future, special and particular attention must be paid to the FEMALE and the YOUNGEST offspring. Both must be CROSSBRED to produce a variety and division of labor. Both must be taught to respond to a peculiar new LANGUAGE. Psychological and physical instruction of CONTAINMENT must be created for both. We hold the six cardinal principles as truth to be self evident, based upon the following the discourse concerning the economics of breaking and tying the horse and the n-word together, all inclusive of the six principles laid down about. NOTE: Neither principle alone will suffice for good economics. All principles must be employed for orderly good of the nation. Accordingly, both a wild horse and a wild or nature n-word is dangerous even if captured, for they will have the tendency to seek their customary freedom, and in doing so, might kill you in your sleep. You cannot rest. They sleep while you are awake, and are awake while you are asleep. They are DANGEROUS near the family house and it requires too much labor to watch them away from the house. Above all, you cannot get them to work in this natural state. Hence both the horse and the n-word must be broken; that is breaking them from one form of mental life to another. KEEP THE BODY TAKE THE MIND! In other words break the will to resist. Now the breaking process is the same for both the horse and the n-word, only slightly varying in degrees. But as we said before, there is an art in long range economic planning. YOU MUST KEEP YOUR EYE AND THOUGHTS ON THE FEMALE and the OFFSPRING of the horse and the n-word. A brief discourse in offspring development will shed light on the key to sound economic principles. Pay little attention to the generation of original breaking, but CONCENTRATE ON FUTURE GENERATION. Therefore, if you break the FEMALE mother, she will BREAK the offspring in its early years of development and when the offspring is old enough to work, she will deliver it up to you, for her normal female protective tendencies will have been lost in the original breaking process. For example take the case of the wild stud horse, a female horse and an already infant horse and compare the breaking process with two captured n-word males in their natural state, a pregnant n-word woman with her infant offspring. Take the stud horse, break him for limited containment. Completely break the female horse until she becomes very gentle, where as you or anybody can ride her in her comfort. Breed the mare and the stud until you have the desired offspring. Then you can turn the stud to freedom until you need him again. Train the female horse where by she will eat out of your hand, and she will in turn train the infant horse to eat out of your hand also. When it comes to breaking the uncivilized n-word, use the same process, but vary the degree and step up the pressure, so as to do a complete reversal of the mind. Take the meanest and most restless n-word, strip him of his clothes in front of the remaining male n-words, the female, and the n-word infant, tar and feather him, tie each leg to a different horse faced in opposite directions, set him a fire and beat both horses to pull him apart in front of the remaining n-word. The next step is to take a bull whip and beat the remaining n-word male to the point of death, in front of the female and the infant. Don't kill him, but PUT THE FEAR OF GOD IN HIM,
for he can be useful for future breeding.
THERE'S MORE:
Willie Lynch The Making Of A Slave
http://www.thetalkingdrum.com/wil.html
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 12:23PM
Whew,
The poster above must not drink coffee.
I can tell, you see, because he (or she) only breaks paragraphs during bathroom breaks ...heh...obviously few and far between.
I have never read a longer paragraph. I have never read such compressed stupidity either,, heh, but that is another story.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 12:35PM
I can say that Ol Texican is worse than Willie Lynch was, back in 1712. Because, he, Ol Tex, wants us/me to be considered as a non producer.
& you wonder why I call the people that support that notion as racist & un-Godly people.
When I a was younger, I blamed your / the repugs Christianity as the source of your hate. Now that I am older, I just chalk your bigotry up as being anti-Christian, no matter how much you people claim my / our Christ.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 12:42PM
If you don't know history your doomed to repeat it.
Willie Lynch The Making Of A Slave
This speech was delivered by Willie Lynch on the bank of the James River in the colony of Virginia in 1712. Lynch was a British slave owner in the West Indies. He was invited to the colony of Virginia in 1712 to teach his methods to slave owners there. The term "lynching" is derived
http://www.thetalkingdrum.com/wil.html
=)
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 12:50PM
I call this my Ester moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu4DeN8u9cM
=)
Pingback| 12.14.09 @ 1:07PM
The American Spectator : The Jobless Recovery and Its Structures American Me links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 1:10PM
Ladies and gentlemen,
Marcell and his clones are answering each other now...
Who does that remind you of?
How many jobs have you created, Marcell?
...uh other than Soros recruits at minimum wage?
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 1:16PM
Every dollar that you & I spend creates jobs.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 1:20PM
Marcell and his clones are answering each other now...
Who does that remind you of?
----------
Please expound... "Fred Sanford."
Pat| 12.14.09 @ 1:20PM
It’s the season to believe in miracles so we may as well pretend we believe our government can stimulate the economy, can direct the economy toward job creation, can increase the velocity of money, can invoke the cube root of M2 through fiscal policy which in turn through a little understood process results in JOBS. Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus and the government really can create jobs.
There are very few Americans living today who don’t believe, or at least half believe, the government can easily influence our economy to create lasting and long-term prosperity – why shouldn’t they, they’ve been given that same assurance since the time of the New Deal. And in addition to formal assurances from the government through their media minions, kids have heard the concept at the supper table from their parents, even if only casually mentioned – our schools have formally taught it – even our professional comics have incorporated it within their funny material. So, why shouldn’t we be upset when the government doesn’t come through for us? Why shouldn’t we feel like we got flannel underwear and a savings bond for Christmas instead of an X-Box or Gloria Beckham designer jeans when the government doesn’t instantly – or at least very quickly – restore jobs whenever the private economy stumbles?
In truth, the government can do only one thing to help – whether it’s Washington or your local government – they can take your money and give it to someone else? Like Old Scratch, this gift that keeps on giving has many guises, the New Deal, TARP, Stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, but in the end they take your money, they give it to a total stranger and then tell you it helps you in some mysterious fashion. And yes, the government creates jobs working for the government, but these are second class jobs, they consume wealth rather than generate it. Government employees don’t create useful stuff, stuff we can wear or eat or drive to work. We can’t export the productive output of our government workers, no one wants it - heck, many of us Americans don’t even want it. So, rip open your present this holiday season but don’t expect to find on of those rare treasures called a JOB.
SteveB| 12.15.09 @ 4:12AM
Right on! The issue I have with the author (Lawler) is that he thinks that the Fed is doing a better job than ever ... when all they have done since the repeal of Bretton Woods is increase the money supply and devalue our currency. Secondly, he is ignoring the fact that the core "inflation" and "GDP" numbers are increasingly cooked - the definition has substantially changed since Okun. The two things have worked in concert to substantially lower our standard of living and will continue to do so.
Do you wonder why in most households today there are two breadwinners? Thank you BIG Gov't and Fed for that one.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 1:28PM
It’s the season to believe in miracles so we may as well pretend we believe our government can stimulate the economy, can direct the economy toward job creation, can increase the velocity of money, can invoke the cube root of M2 through fiscal policy which in turn through a little understood process results in JOBS. Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus and the government really can create jobs.
----
So cutting taxes really does not create growth right?
Plitical Chess: Finding New Jo| 12.14.09 @ 1:34PM
On December 7th, 2009 BLACK CELL said:
I believe that President Obama is the best marketing tool that a person can ever have, because he is well informed, operates good on his feet with a crowd, &, “He's the President.”
I want to begin by asking you to think about how a political fund raiser works. It is an event or campaign whose primary purpose is to raise money for an election, or a cause.
We all know that the President is the most valuable asset the Democratic Party has when it comes to bring in the big bucks for any cause. Yet, we never looked at a fund raiser in the sense of being a room filled with employers seeking to hire employees, & who are also looking for opportunities to market their businesses, or find out more info on all the different tax credits that was unknown to the average small business owner.
I put it in that sequence because I feel that the solution to the problem is to convince our President to use his stature, like he does for his fellow Democrats by giving fund raisers, to come together with business owners who are looking for employees at a national Jobs Fair; in many of the same ways that he has fund raisers.
Instead of the President trying to raise money for
Democratic Party candidates, he should try help finding jobs for the average American. Something like that makes it look like the president has rolled up his sleeves, & is helping the average Joe find a job[s]; the old fashion way, like the average Joe does, & without spending much government money.
When I thought about the national jobs fair theory a few weeks ago, I immediately begin to get embarrassed at the thought of a President having a national convention with employers, who were already looking for employees, & tax credits along with ways to open up more markets over seas for their Businesses.
I thought to myself...
...That's sooo small town.
A Jobs Fair... Dumb idea.
...Yeah, that's toooo liberal as well.
… Might I add ???
If the timing for such an event was staged on a critical date, for an example, the beginning of spring… when people are ready to get out of the house & spend money, it could also encourage others to hire; the people who receive jobs will also inject more capital into the economy, thus adding to the momentum needed going into the 2010 election.
Such an event would make the Repug conservatives jealous, & they are going to want to give their form of Jobs Fairs hoping to create more job than the Dems. They will make sure Palin is the person who will be on the mic introducing all the conservative employers, who will offer more benefits than those at the Democrats national jobs fair, like the true capitalist they are, looking to pay high wages for qualified employees … “NOT!!
ALL JOKING ASIDE
I do believe that the President should use his stature to help connect the unemployed with those who are hiring. I do believe that the issue of finding ways to open up foreign markets with, "Made in America products," is the lynchpin to unraveling the NWO, Neo “Cons,” who call themselves today's, conservatives stronghold on the thoughts of the blue collar worker who support the conservatives & their candidates.
I know that we liberals have different ways of looking at the world, but keep in mind that the average voter only worries are about paying their bills, & living in our own worlds that we call life in America first.
J. Kelley| 12.14.09 @ 1:36PM
Marcell My commit was The Democrats and Obama have done nothing to make the economy recover. Spending money that we don't have and this money goes to a sluch fund for political hacks harms the economy. The private sector does not know what to do. How much taxes will go up, will the Federal Government take over their companies. Labor Unions run Auto manufacturing companies they helped destroy. And on and on. This tells me they don't want the economy to recover. They could not be that stupid.
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 1:42PM
Just read an article about how the Mocha Messiah is mandating that banks increase lending (responsibly, of course, like in the CRA). Let's suppose that banks allow themselves to be browbeaten (again) into giving loans that don't make financial sense for them - who would want to take on a loan to, for example, start a small business just to have Osama tax them back into the stone age. What a virtuous cycle he is creating. What a guy!
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 2:08PM
Are you saying that we shouldn't be complaining about businesses making mega profits & running up our unemployment rate. Might I add, the same banks that we, the tax payers, bailed out?
Dow Jones Industrial Average 10495.01
Rmm| 12.14.09 @ 2:40PM
This is the same rubbish weve been hearing since O came on the scene. Everyone generally agrees that it is small business's that is the engine of this economoy. IT is time that you and other like minded big talkers take ownership. Face it man, no more blame-game.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 3:36PM
Face it man, no more blame-game.
-----------
Face what?
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 2:46PM
To borrow your hilarious mis-spelling, your post is an "obserdity." Public businesses act in the best interests of their shareholders, or they die (or should die in a capitalist system). Your post is therefore one giant self-contradiction. If these mean, evil corporations (who is the bad guy of the day in liberal land - can't be oil anymore, can it?) were artificially inflating profits by cutting employment in an environment where this didn't make sense due to bleak future prospects (thank you, Osama), their competitors would expand and clean their clocks. The DJIA rise, though still well below its peak and caused by more factors than just the subject of this post, is a clear indication that current cost cutting strategies are correct. If I currently owned a business, I would be going into hibernation - OStupid is raising taxes and spending like a teenager with daddy's AMEX, which will lead to massive inflation in the next few years. Hardly a "gung ho, let's expand" business environment. If you are worried about "elites" stealing massive amounts of money, follow the trail of spending on the "stimulus" package and you will find some real villains.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 3:54PM
Just because the dough dough says that I hate business doesn't mean I hate business, unless he is your God. Their bleak futures has everything to do with what caused the recession, & it wasn't Barack Obama.
I must say that your superior intelect is gave us Bu$h.
P.S. Are you sure that you want to make this: statement:
"The DJIA rise, though still well below its peak"
Dow Jones Industrial Average historical prices
http://www.google.com/finance/.....EXDJX:.DJI
I'd rather make a mistake with my grammar, than purposely misinform people>
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:02PM
Quite sure. Try going back more than a year and let me know what you find.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:06PM
I already know that you are not going to find many days were the dow closed above 10495.01.
Here prove your point.
http://www.google.com/finance/.....EXDJX:.DJI
I dare you.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:09PM
Hush it up, if you don't prove your point, because I am from the REAL show me state.
http://www.google.com/finance/.....amp;num=30
You got your work cut out for you.
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:11PM
Only several hundred. As I said, go back more than a year. Here, try this and let me know what you see.
http://www.google.com/finance/.....c+14,+2009
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:20PM
Awfully quiet in here. Hello? Hello? Echo...echo...echo.... No clever reply? I am done educating you. Time to find a new source for your daily liberal talking points. Adios.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:23PM
I counted 4 over 10495.01. withen one month of growth about 10, 000. Yeah, that constitutes as you said:
"The DJIA rise, though still well below its peak"
... NOT!!
Marcell | 12.14.09 @ 4:24PM
Hello? Hello? Echo...echo...echo
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:28PM
I counted 4 days that the dow was over 10495.01. within one month period of growth that was over 10, 000. Yeah, that constitutes as you said:
"The DJIA rise, though still well below its peak"
http://www.google.com/finance/.....c+14,+2009
... NOT!!
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:32PM
I have no idea what you are looking at but I can't help you if you can't read. Since this newfangled internet thingy is too complicated for you, try looking at this graph. (the same one is at the upper right hand corner of your own link)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart3:symbol=^dji;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
Let your eyes be drawn to the prolonged period of time where the line is above where it is at the far right of the graph.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:43PM
It didn't open so repost it, so I can be educated.
=)
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:50PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart3:symbol=^dji;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
or just look at the graph at the top right of your own link.
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:51PM
Copy and paste the link in your browser address line, since the site apparently doesn't allow such a long hyperlink.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 4:51PM
Hello? Hello? Echo...echo...echo
Please prove your point.
"The DJIA rise, though still well below its peak."
Pete| 12.14.09 @ 4:56PM
The peak, in October of 2007, was just above 14000. Hence my "well below it's peak" comment. Quite accurate. Have a nice night.
Point Made| 12.14.09 @ 5:14PM
You made your point. Thank you.
Ps. Someone didn't want me to congratulate the man (Person) for doing his home work.
To Pete| 12.14.09 @ 5:45PM
http://media.photobucket.com/i.....hics_2.gif
Pingback| 12.14.09 @ 1:47PM
The American Spectator : The Jobless Recovery and Its Structures Divorce on Me links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Tc Patriot| 12.14.09 @ 1:54PM
Someday we will look back at these days: When the thug corrupted Obama administration and his Democrats nearly destroyed America!
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 2:00PM
Marcell My commit was The Democrats and Obama have done nothing to make the economy recover. Spending money that we don't have and this money goes to a sluch fund for political hacks harms the economy. The private sector does not know what to do.
--
Ah, I understand now.
I think you are giving inverters a convenient excuse to not hire new workers, & I understand why you are making your point, because you are hoping that our federal government fails at this point in time. I also beleive that the feds can create a business friendly environment that can profit both the employer & their future employee as well as their subordinates.
I consider it to be a perfect illustration of obserdity to see & hear the conservative big spendering politicians claiming that government spending is hurting business.
They have always made the phony vow to give us lesser government.
Translation: Emotional Babel | 12.14.09 @ 2:03PM
Tc Patriot| 12.14.09 @ 1:54PM
Someday we will look back at these days: When the thug corrupted Obama administration and his Democrats nearly destroyed America!
---------------
This is what will happen to our society if conservatives allow the liberals culture to flourish is your communities.
GHOST RIDE IT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPNJjL9iznY
The people in your PURE comminitees will become idiots & it will look like this after they repugnat liberals take crontol over your wealth.
Ghost Ride the Farm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hcaJNQkj2I
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 2:12PM
What happened to the social costs part of the TCO? It's more like selfish costs.
-------------
Define: TCO
Total cost of ownership (TCO) is a financial estimate. Its purpose is to help consumers and enterprise managers determine direct and indirect costs of a product or system. It is a management accounting concept that can be used in full cost accounting or even Ecological economics where it includes social costs.
ROTFLMAO| 12.14.09 @ 2:20PM
But yooouuu Fred Sanford, You Ol fish eyed foooool.
LMAO!!
Ol Texican makes my day every time he blathers.
=)
jd| 12.14.09 @ 4:49PM
Marcell,
Your posts are idiotic. Believing the federal government can create a friendly business environment is plain stupid. It may suit your personal prejudices but you are a fool beholden to a perverse economic ideology that does not work in the real world. Let me guess, do you consider yourself an "intellectual elite"?! Nothing about your posts is intellectual in the least. Keep on blogging you fool. The more you talk the more contradictory you are for the rest of us to witness. If you are looking for some kind of respect for what you post, you better look elsewhere! Ha!
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 5:21PM
Sounds like you are saying that Obama can use the government to destroy our economy, but government is not set up to help create a business friendly environment through regulations & taxes.
Marcell| 12.14.09 @ 5:29PM
Rush Limbaughs solution to the recession: Bail out the rich and cut taxes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyZ2CqaGjY
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 5:37PM
Hey JD
Did you catch my rather long post above?
Realities like that get the twits foaming at the mouth...or all wee weed up, heh.
Their days are numbered. Computers don't work very well by candlelight.. heh.
Yea, it's over| 12.14.09 @ 6:07PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Irjl6z5SZzQ
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 6:48PM
Hey Twits!
Did you eat today?
did you thank God for truck drivers, and grocers, and farmers, and ranchers, and slaughterhouse personel, and the guys who provided the heat to cook your meal?
Nah!
grow up...or get real hungry.
Marcell | 12.14.09 @ 6:54PM
Military Ghost Ride Montage for Ol Texican.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....0&NR=1
They are taking over with night vision.
=)
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.14.09 @ 7:15PM
Fellow patriots...
VICTORY OR DEATH!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjfMjjce2Y
Ret. Marine | 12.14.09 @ 8:59PM
A lot of excellent comments, many right to the point of sanity. Why would any business take a chance on this economy when the commander of the turd world kenyen economics turns to faulting every one else but the reflection in his mirror.
Translation| 12.14.09 @ 9:17PM
Fellow Patriots...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_mPrhwpZ-8
VICTORY OR DEATH!
=)
George Dinmore | 12.15.09 @ 5:45AM
Well, what can i say to all this. Some replies on here are just promoting other things. Like hair shampoo nearer the top - Please tell me, what in the hell has that got to do with the situation regarding jobs on this planet?
If anyone can answer that, please do.
sako shooter| 12.15.09 @ 9:31AM
I am so tired of reading "The current downturn, which began in December 2007" A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. We did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth until the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The myth that the recession started in 2007 is designed to put the blame on Bush. Now, even conservative journalists are too sloppy or lazy to get the facts and parrot the left-wing myth machine. The election of Obama in the fall of 2008 pushed us into recession. This is Obama's recession and the jobless recovery that his policies are exasperating will be his undoing.
Pingback| 12.15.09 @ 9:47AM
¤ The Current Cash Gifting Programs ¤ links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 12.15.09 @ 12:49PM
Lender - ADB says East Asia’s emerging economies recovering at faster pace - News1130 links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
somnolence| 12.20.09 @ 10:01AM
Marcell is one of the millions of folks who had the audacity to call Dan Quayle a poor speller. But that is irrelevant to me. I'm more concerned about the total lies and hypocrisy of this administration. There are two topics that stand out above all others: transparency of legislation that affects all of us, and real advocacy of job creation. Notice that I said advocacy, and not creation as such. Government doesn't create jobs for the masses; it creates politically indebted bureaucrats.
Pingback| 12.30.09 @ 6:12PM
werewolf » Welcome to the Jobless Recovery links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 4.22.10 @ 10:38AM
It’s Another Blog Post On The Economy, Stupid « Around The Sphere links to this page. Here’s an excerpt: