At Large
No Sales Days in the Afghan War
The costs of doing business in Afghanistan.
It seems inconceivable that the gorge known as the Khyber Pass which was such a danger to British supply lines in the 19th century days of the Raj is once again just as dangerous in the 21st century. The trucking companies complain they are forced to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in ransom yearly to Taliban kidnappers of their drivers and their rigs. They say it would be a higher price if they didn’t also pay for protection by the Afghan police and Pakistan border guards.
One way or another these amounts and most of the rest of the very expensive NATO presence in Afghanistan are paid for primarily by the American taxpayers and to a lesser, but important, extent by their British counterparts. Herein is the key obstacle to any strategic, and necessarily costly, plan to secure Afghanistan against the Taliban. The multi-billion dollar expenses involved in all aspects of this conflict do not have an ascertainable end point in a war of occupation in which replacement of U.S./UK and other NATO forces is to be accomplished by an as yet mostly nonexistent fully functional Afghan Army.
The principal supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan is the 1,260 mile trip from Karachi, Pakistan to Kabul. The one thing that can be guaranteed regarding this treacherous pathway is that it has brought economic rewards to Pakistan as well as the Taliban. It doesn’t take much imagination to see that that the American commitment to Afghanistan is a valuable asset to the economy of the region even as the civilian casualties mount in the battles with the Taliban.
Adding to the complexity of the character of this conflict is the highly questionable trustworthiness of the Pakistan and Afghan police forces, both charged with the responsibility to ensure the protected flow of commerce. One could say, of course, that there is no reason why the gendarmerie shouldn’t benefit when everyone else does.
It became apparent last year that transiting through Pakistan on the Karachi-Peshawar-Kabul route via the Khyber Pass was increasingly uneconomic, militarily and commercially. Over 300 petroleum tankers and new military vehicles reportedly were destroyed on this roadway between the end of ‘08 and the spring of ‘09. While such losses can be, and were, counted as acceptable combat casualties, when the cost of this destruction is added to insurgent, police, and plain criminal extortion, the economics of maintaining the supply lines to fight the war becomes an influential consideration.
Spreading the wealth as well as seeking a more secure supply route has shifted over a quarter of the ground shipment of NATO military requirements via the north through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. While this longer and more expensive route tends to avoid Taliban tithing, it still must take into consideration “transit fees” through tribes in their northern political alliance. It all adds up.
The argument has been presented that, like it or not, the ransoms paid for lives and property actually are a competitively economic way to broadly disperse financial aid. Of course, this is the same argument put forth relative to opium poppy cultivation and trafficking. While this might make sense in regional terms, it certainly doesn’t play well in Washington or London — to say nothing of Peoria.
These tactical factors of the economics of war fighting were not part of the requirements laid on General McChrystal in the preparation of his operational plan for pacification of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Nor was the fact that along with fighting increasing thousands of Taliban, U.S. and British forces will have to deal with the oft times deadly rivalries between and among Pushtun tribes.
This problem of internecine conflict within the Pushtun tribal structure has been a recurring issue since the first American and British special operations forces launched their efforts in 2001 — and long before. Payoffs early were part and parcel of counter-Taliban operations. This is traditional anti-insurgency tradecraft, but it has grown from specific operational rewards to continuing economic, social and political subsidization.
One of the “new” ideas being considered as a strategic alternative is to pressure provincial leaders into competing for funding rather than having Kabul direct the financing. This is seen as a way to take away the influence of corrupt central government authority while the Afghan Army takes over greater responsibility for security.
Two problems: The Afghan Army is years away from reaching a combat level equal to taking on the Taliban. And who says the provincial governments aren’t as corrupt as the one in Kabul?
Bottom line: There’s no inexpensive way to fight a war in Afghanistan either in lives or money.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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1FreeMan| 11.20.09 @ 10:38AM
Two years ago I personally stood at Torkham Gate, the boarder on the Jalalabad road where Khyber pass is located. I have driven in armored vehicles from Torkham to Kabul. With that said:
1) The current administration's failure to support mission commander’s request for troops is part of this problem. The highway (if you can call that two-lane dirt / asphalt path a highway) can not be secured with the number of troops we have there now.
2) Follow the money. As long as bribes and greed and corruption continue to pay the officials in power in Afghanistan will do nothing. Why ruin your own paycheck? The Taliban are making bank and that cash flows to Pakistan. This needs to be stopped or they will continue to use the money to fund terrorism.
3) Khyber pass is, indeed, dangerous... but the article goes a little overboard and has exaggerated the risk a little. Are shipments being hijacked? YES. Are people being killed on that route? Yes, on occasion. Is it lined with pirates every day shooting and killing passing convoys? No. Did I see burned trucks and overturned containers on the road? Yes.
It is complicated and Obama needs to get out of the parties and go to his office and do something!
Pingback| 11.20.09 @ 11:22AM
The American Spectator : No Sales Days in the Afghan War links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Dixie Pixie| 11.20.09 @ 12:46PM
As the last remaining Taft “Isolationist”, I would like Obama to explain after a estimated 2 Trillion dollars in expenses why the continuing Iraq and Afghan fiascoes should be continued and for how long????
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.20.09 @ 1:57PM
Pixie
Obama cannot explain it, but I can. My question to you: Is that a merely rhetoric question ?
It seems so, but I am giving you the benefit of the doubt. I look forward to the discussion. We can do it here, or you can contact me at kbjudgeroybean06@gmail.com privately.
You have my word of honor in that case that our discussions will REMAIN private. Rip my guts out here if I break my word.
Dixie Pixie| 11.20.09 @ 5:54PM
To: Ken
The question is only partly rhetorical.
Make no mistake. Both the Iraq and Afghan Wars are Obama's wars
Don't you think it would be nice to see a summons from a Defense Subcommittee for Obama to explain his war policy's. Obama pinned down and forced to explain his policy's publicly would be a sight to see.
After 8 years and a estimated 2 Trillion dollars of borrowed dollars it is way past time to either win and get out out or just get out. To keep both fiascoes going with neither winning or losing is beyond stupidity.
Dixie Pixie| 11.20.09 @ 7:02PM
To: Ken
Thanks for the offer of a private contact point.
However I have always felt if you can not stand in the middle of the street at high noon and slap rhetorical leather for your beliefs then what good are you. If a person can not do that then they should not be on a public post.
1FreeMan| 11.20.09 @ 2:44PM
Dixie Pixie,
Because people are suffering. Because the governments of those countries and of Iran and Pakistan are a threat to the world and are using Iraq and Afghanistan to fund their attacks on the rest of the world.
Because innocent blood has been spilled and if/when we leave before securing that part of the world millions more will die.
Liberals want to kill unborn babies but provide healthcare for the poor. Liberals want to charge me more tax so they can give it to the poor. Why, then, is helping establish freedom in Afghanistan and Iraq so different? Hungry, sick, impoverished people crying out for the helping hand of the United States and liberals oppose it? Proof of the sickness that is attacking our nation!
If anyone doesn't get it, it is me; a soldier who has gone forward and held the sick and dying children in my arms. I just don't get the liberal mind set.
Dixie Pixie| 11.20.09 @ 6:34PM
To 1FreeMan
Great post.
There is only one problem. Where is it written in the US Constitution or Federal Code the People of the USA are responsible for the worlds problems. The US government duties and responsibly should end at the US border baring treaty obligations.
I would like to remind you that Bush and the Rummy brought Freedom and Democracy to Iraq. The inhabitants promptly used their newly found freedom to loot and pillage each other. Then the Iraqis turned to killing each other with the gleeful joy of religious fanatics.
So pardon my confusion, exactly which conservative doctrine or dogma does it state where conservatives must journey to foreign lands to hunt for dragons to slay. What Law states we must try to save any foreign child from their countrymen.
I await your next post. I must have missed some major part of Conservative Theory.
1FreeMan| 11.21.09 @ 1:54AM
Dixie,
Please read the inscription on the statue of liberty. Also remember she stood there and watched the world trade towers fall as they were destroyed by Muslims.
As you are a self professed "Isolationist" I know you are beyond reason. So let me appeal to the selfish liberal part that always asks "What's in it for me?" How about the safety and knowledge knowing that these extremests are no longer able to AGAIN bring death to the door of Americans?
Where is the law that requires me to help the elderly? Where is the law that tells me to comfort the sick or help the poor? The same law that guides me in these questions guides me to save forign children from disease and suffering. A person who selfishly turns their back on the suffering of their fellow man is a disgrace to humanity. In this case, that is you. You must be so very empty inside with the knowledge that you want children, the sick and innocent to suffer because you don't like the cost of helping them become free. May the shame of the world press on your shoulders. Sit there and do nothing. As for me: today I recieved orders to again deploy and honorably serve my Nation. I pray God will forgive you your inhumanity and selfishness.
Margie| 11.21.09 @ 12:28PM
Godspeed, 1FreeMan. You'll be in our prayers. I hope you will have opportunity to keep us posted along the way.
I'm so proud of you!
1Freeman| 11.21.09 @ 3:42PM
Thank you Margie. I know His hand of protection will be with me. Your prayers are MOST welcome too.
Dixie Pixie| 11.21.09 @ 10:23PM
To: 1FreeMan
Christian compassion is a wonderful thing.
When the North winds blow and the minutes of the night seem to lengthen when on guard duty, a soldier needs to reach deep inside himself to find the motivation to keep going. Christian Charity is the most honorable of reasons to keep going.
However Christian Charity is not a strategic plan for winning a war. If the goal is not a child crying anywhere, then this war will never end.
Philosophy drives Strategy which wins wars.
The original Strategy was so simple even a Rummy could do it. Bribe as many Afghan warlords into the Northern Alliance as possible. Supply them with weapons, supplies, air support and military advisers. Use the Northern Alliance to destroy Mullah Omar's Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Appoint a new Afghan government controlled by the US by grants, loans and foreign aid. Karzai was the designated puppet who was to maintain control of the warlords by controlling the money pipeline.
Unfortunately puppet strings can be pulled both ways. Mission creep started. Karzai needed support to keep his people in line. Afghan hearts and minds needed to be bought. More military resources must be poured into Afghanistan to keep the government going. More military personal means more targets for the Taliban. More troops are then needed to hunt the Taliban. Around and around the military cycle grows. The US military is now to the point where we have to guard the supply lines going through Pakistan. It is a nobrainer more troops will be needed to secure the supply lines.
Taft “Isolationism” is a lost cause. It is a known fact that southern pixies are attracted to lost causes.
It is also an attractive conservative philosophy from a bygone age. If it had a chance to grow then the USA would not be in the Afghan or Iraq fiascoes.
My questions are simple. What philosophy gets the USA out of the Afghan war. What is Obama's strategy. Does he even have one.
1FreeMan| 11.22.09 @ 1:39PM
Clearly your last post was posted by someone other than the "Dixie Pixie" (above), OR you are playing both sides against the middle. Clearly whoever wrote this last post has exposure to the issues and the military or the term "mission creep" wouldn't be in your vocabulary.
Never in the history of the US have we been attacked and failed to respond. Isolation is not, nor has it ever been, an option. The ostrich approach has been debated for decades and it has NEVER been considered as a National Strategy.
How do we get out of the mess? First we remove the indecisive leadership in D.C. Then we directly address the bully in Tehran and force the issue with Pakistan. I suspect you already know that direct eradication of the poppy fields in Afghanistan will do more harm than good. Blockade the middle east? Possibly. I’d be willing to entertain the idea.
Mission creep is the result of dedicated forces trying to do everything they can for the good of our country and the good of the people around them in Afghanistan while at the same time suffering from a completely direction-less leadership in Washington. Sure, we want terrorists to stop attacking the world but, gee whiz, are we willing to actually step up efforts to eradicate the clerics and imams scattered all over the world who preach jihad. No. And why is that? Isolationists who tell the world it is Somebody Else’s' Problem (SEP). When we admit that radical muslims are the larger threat to GLOBAL security and the survivability of our species then, possibly, we can begin to make progress. Dixie Pixie, please look up Polio and cross-reference the dominant religion in those regions. Look up mortality and disease vectors and you will readily see that aside from open hatred of everything not muslim that there are other threats from the religion of "peace". Threats caused by the subjugation of freedom, enterprise, education and oppression. Sickness, disease, hatred are all the product of this religion. This has become a global threat and the failure of those global peace, one world government, "coexist" hippies to recognize that the war is in full swing and that it is a global war is the root cause of failure. Dixie, when you begin to wake up every morning to the sound of an Arabic voice calling you to prayer, here in the USA, it will be too late. Why can't you get this? This is the largest threat to freedom the world has ever seen!
Dixie Pixie| 11.22.09 @ 8:30PM
To: 1FreeMan
> You tried to think like me and this is what you came up with. <<br /> > It is like you don't know me at all, mate. <<br />
> Captain Jack Sparrow <<br /> > Pirates of the Caribbean <<br />
Please research the political philosophy of Senator Robert Taft. You may find something to like.
The Taft “Isolationism” is a conservative inside joke because it is not isolationism. It is a philosophic argument against the formation of a American Empire. The label was imposed on Taft's philosophy by FDR liberals to discredit the philosophy. However, Taft's philosophy formed the base of the later Goldwater and Reagan philosophies.
Senator Taft fought FDR policies tooth and nail in the 1930's and 1940's. After WWII was over FDR's minions discovered they had inherited a massive military and a disintegrating British and French Empires. For the Liberals it was natural to replace the fading European empires with a Pax America. Senator Taft foresaw this was certain to drag the USA into a never ending series of wars as we try to protect the periphery against a ever widening list of enemies. He failed. You know the rest of the political / military history.
Now the USA is stuck in a four way Muslim uncivil war. It is ( Wahhabi vs Shia vs Sunni vs Secular Liberalism ) with the USA is trying to impose Pax America on the Middle East. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan are all attempting regional political / religious dominance. This uncivil war looks like a bad rerun of the Thirty Years War (1618 to 1648 Europe). Even if the USA wins there are other regional blocks after the Muslim block. (Latin America, Africa, Hindi, Chinese and Europe / Russia)
The dragons that need slaying are endless. Where does the USA stop.
So let me compress both posts into one simple question and yes there is only one Dixie Pixie.
Under what philosophical system can conservatives derive a strategy to end the Middle East Wars or at least the USA commitment.
I think the philosophic works of Senator Taft are a good starting place.
Best of luck on your next posting. Both literary and physical.
Alan Brooks| 11.20.09 @ 2:47PM
Where's Hot Toddy?
Taking a siesta?
1Freeman| 11.20.09 @ 3:01PM
He's on another thread blasting everyone there. I'm sure he will be back here soon.
Pingback| 11.20.09 @ 3:09PM
The American Spectator : No Sales Days in the Afghan War « Internet Cafe Solution links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 11.20.09 @ 5:19PM
All In One Information » The American Spectator : No Sales Days in the Afghan War links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Dixie Pixie| 11.20.09 @ 8:09PM
What ever happened to >Daphne <<br /> What the TAS Online posts needs is a truly insane Socialist.
Richard Baker| 11.22.09 @ 7:01PM
Dixie Pixie:
My question to you is this. Are you ready to fight these guys in your neighborhood? Our Rules of Engagement have our guys so concerned about civilian casualties that they are not prosecuting the war with the vigor capable of our Force. If we run away from these guys and don't first kill them by the tens, if not hundreds of thousands, then we will eventually be killing them in our streets. Are you prepared to do that? This is not some academic exercise but an easy prognostication.
Dixie Pixie| 11.22.09 @ 9:36PM
Wake me up when we get to the American Reconquista part.
I did my time on the front lines holding back the barbarian hordes.
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