Political Hay
Political Phalanxes
A report from the political battlefield, as currently construed.
It was just a skirmish, two reconnaissance parties meeting in advance of the main forces. Still, the outcome was so different from their last encounter, that both sides are now reassessing the prospects of the next engagement.
We are not talking about war, but the recent elections and their national ramifications next year.
Inarguably, conservatives exceeded expectations. In fact, conservatives did so even when Republicans did not. A case in point was the special election in NY-23. Here the Republicans lost the congressional seat for the first time since the mid-19th century and their formal candidate finished a distant third in the race.
However, the Conservative finished with 45.2% of the vote, losing by just 4.1 percentage points to the Democratic winner. The Conservative Party candidate polled less than 2 percentage points lower than McCain had done in last year’s presidential election. In contrast, the Democratic winner polled 3 percentage points behind Obama’s 2008 total.
In the two gubernatorial elections, the swing was even wider. In New Jersey, the Republican Christie took 48.8% of the vote to Democrat Corzine’s 44.6%. Obama took New Jersey 57%-42% in 2008. That translates into a 6.8 percentage point Republican gain and a 12 percentage point Democratic drop-off from 2008 to 2009.
In Virginia, the Republican McDonnell took 58.7% of the vote to Democrat Deeds’ 41.3%. In 2008, Obama won the state 53%-47%. The 2008-2009 swing is an 11.7 percentage point Republican gain and a Democratic drop of 12 percentage points.
Even in the little-noted CA-10 special election, the same volatile swing was evident. In 2008, Obama had won the district with 64.7% of the vote versus McCain’s 33.2%. In the 2009 special election, the Democrat won with 53% to the Republican’s 43%. Even with a double-digit margin, the Democrat vote percentage dropped 11.7 percentage points and the Republican’s gained 10 percentage points.
Moral victories are not necessarily political victories. For that reason, Republicans walked away with only two wins in these four races. Yet for those who are more focused on next year’s races than this year’s outcomes, the larger story of volatility is clear.
The following table gives a range of American politics. Most elections take place in Tier One. In definitive outcomes, they move into Tier Two. In rare instances, they extend into Tier Three.
AMERICAN POLITICAL RANGE
Tier One: Both parties motivated
Tier Two: One party only motivated
Tier Three: One party motivated and expanded
Tier Four: Alternating party motivation and expansion
What made 2008 so unusual was the fact that Obama not only motivated the Democratic voting base, he expanded it. At the same time, the Republican base shrank. These two divergent movements created the appearance of a landslide. In terms of the preceding table, it was a rare Tier Three elections.
The recent 2009 results raise the possibility that the 2010 outcome may be equally volatile… in the opposite direction. If such were to be the case, the result might not simply be another Tier Three outcome — noteworthy enough in itself. It could presage a new cycle, a Tier Four period, whereby the electorate swings widely back and forth.
What is the rationale for such a possibility? For one thing, Obama again will not be on the ballot in 2010 — helping re-create the 2009 dynamic. He presumably will be in 2012 (potentially re-creating the 2008 surge) and then will not be in 2014 and 2016. If his presence and absence causes the electorate swings seen in 2008 and 2009, these next four elections could be extraordinarily volatile.
The palpable anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction in the electorate only adds fuel to this fire. A recent 10/27 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (conducted 10/22-25 with1,009 adults with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%) showed only 41% of respondents said their representative deserved re-election, while 49% said it was time to give a new person a chance. Seventy-six percent said that “only some of the time” or “never” did they trust “the government in DC to do what is right.” Eighty percent said they were “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with “the state of the US economy today” and 55% thought the economy would “get worse” or “stay same” over the next 12 months. Sixty-three percent expected unemployment to increase.
The recent rise in the national unemployment rate to 10.2% underscores the economy’s continuing negative impact on the electorate. The fact that many estimators don’t see the rate falling much below 10% through next year is another warning sign for politicians. At the same time, controversial issues in Washington are likely to extend into next year — health care and climate legislation both have the potential to exercise the electorate rather than calm them.
Ancient Greece’s citizens fought each other in phalanxes; modern America’s do so in political parties. Yet, the outcomes are not dissimilar. Tightly packed and well-organized, phalanxes were comprised of heavily armed soldiers that fought in close formations with spears pointing outward. Moving in unison, they collided amidst great din and exertion but inflicted and suffered relatively few casualties in most battles…as long as the phalanxes held. Only when the ranks weakened and then disintegrated did carnage ensue.
Each party’s ranks have alternated between strengthening and weakening in the last two elections. If this continues, the political battlefield is likely to be bloody indeed.
About the Author
J.T. Young served in the Department of Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.
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Shamus| 11.17.09 @ 8:05AM
This analysis does not include the effect of the legislation Democrats are attempting to pass. The health care bill could cause a great deal of pain for the the electorate if it passes, and this is a pain they will share with its authors.
Democrats plan to cut funding for Medicare, raise the cost of insurance to unaffordable levels, and increase taxes and spending. It would be a huge surprise if Medicare beneficiaries agree to cuts in this program, so it's a bit odd that this would even be broached by a party in power. Pain inflicted by the health bill starts right away, while benefits wait for 2013 to come into effect. The likely outcome is that people will lose their insurance over the next few years as they are priced out of the market by added costs but receive no help in meeting these costs. People will think that the health plan has failed because prices have increased and the numbers of uninsured have grown.
Howard| 11.17.09 @ 9:07AM
Interesting points. The Democrats took over Congress in 2006 based on Iraq going south, and the GOP being tagged as big spenders out of touch with the people. In 2008 Obama wins due to Bush & GOP fatigue, as well as McCain being a very weak candidate, Palin aside. So, now the question is how motivated will the Democrats be to keep their large margins (presumably quite motivated), vs. the GOP/conservatives motivation to turn back Obama and his leftist policies. A Battle Royal is coming!
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 9:12AM
Bloody indeed, Mr. Young
Especially in 2010 we must make it so.
The Roman legions figured out how to KILL a phalanx.
One softens the center of one's lines, takes the hammer blow delivered by the hammer's head, then attacks from the rear to roll up the flanks.
OOPS!
Inadvertantly to be sure, the RINOS provided the softening center last year. We at TEAM AMERICA are even now curling around the communist, (pardon the shorthand), rear.
While Mr. Obama prances blithely at the head of his phalanx, we are hamstringing his weakest
ranks.
I freaked when Obama talked about "guns to a knife fight". One of my favorite movies ever was "The Life And Times Of Judge Roy Bean" with Paul Neuman.
If you will recall, the "baddest guy in Texas" came to have a stand up gunfight with the Judge. The Judge shot him in the back with a buffalo rifle from the loft of his barn.
I wish I could remember the Judge's exact lines when one of his deputies whined about the Judge "back-shooting" the man. Something to the effect: 'Of course I shot him in the back, idiot! I didn't go looking for a gun fight! He did. I'm the law! He ain't. Bury him!
I will say the same things right now. We are on the side of the "Law" (The constitution), and Mr. Obama has very clearly stated....he ain't! Bury him!
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 9:47AM
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 9:19AM
www.myteamusa.org
Mr. Young, that post will surely get me on a "list".
Nevertheless, for clarity I will state right here...
I WAS EXTENDING A METAPHOR. I MEAN TO HELP BURY HIM POLITICALLY!
Indiana Alex| 11.17.09 @ 9:18AM
Obama will increase particiapation in 2012, but he doesn't seem smart enough to take a strong turn to the right like Bill Clinton did, and remain in office. The Left was drilled in 1994, as it will be next year, over a governemnt take over of health care and general leftist over-reach both times.
Clinton was smart enough to realize that no matter how much he had the media he would lose the electorate if he didn't take a strong turn to the right and take up welfare reform, and such heady issues as teen smoking. He ended up signing way less in terms of spending increases than he wanted, and had to resort to shutting down the government to get the country to agree to spend more. (Yet still he gets credit for balancing the budget?)
Obama believes his press and the people around him and will stay left becuase he thinks it's the right thing to do, and he can get away with it, as always has.
Given this i would say that while 2010 will most certianly be a tier 3 to the right, 2012 would be back to a tier 1, and so long as they don't nominate Bob Dole, "because it's Bob Dole's turn damnit", Republicans should have the white house back.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 9:19AM
www.myteamusa.org
Mr. Young, that post will surely get me on a "list".
Nevertheless, for clarity I will state right here...
I WAS EXTENDING A METAPHOR. I MEAN TO HELP BURY HIM POLITICALLY!
Ammo Guy| 11.17.09 @ 10:00AM
Interestingly enough, as we all know, the routine re-canvass has narrowed Owens' lead to around 3000 votes which means Hoffman is behind by only 2.3% not the 4.1% referenced in this article...with the prospects of more to come as the absentee ballots are counted. Likely not enough to change the outcome, but the margin will be much smaller with Hoffman probably receiving 47% of the vote, not 45%. I know, I know...this post is a bit wonkish, but elections have always fascinated me.
pugsley| 11.17.09 @ 10:28AM
For Ken-here is a close quote. 'Judge it's ashame to end such an illustrious carreer in such a way, being shot in the back, it's not fair. You didn't give him a chance. A chance? If he wanted a chance he should have gone someplace else!'
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 11:49AM
Hey Pugsley,
You made me laugh out loud yet again to those lines. Thank you.
Pingback| 11.17.09 @ 10:54AM
The Cloakroom » Newscall links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Dixie Pixie| 11.17.09 @ 11:37AM
One brief thought, in the 2008 election Obama was a blank slate on which the populace could project their dreams and fantasies upon. In the 2012 election Obama will be a known quantity. He will not be able to pull the same political trick twice.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 11:55AM
OOOOOh! Pixie!
Thank you so much for that reminder. Yes! he is a "one trick pony".
Dixie Pixie| 11.17.09 @ 1:33PM
To: Ken
Glad to see you successfully avoided the attentions of the Secret Service. Nice people but devoid of humor when working. It is best to stay out of their way.
The Obama administration has been a rolling disaster of liberal delusions devoid of adult supervision or wisdom. The Democrats look doomed only if the Republicans can rebuild their political base. That is not a given. My best guess is both the conservatives and independents have left both parties and are looking for a home. John McCain was not it. To me the current situation looks more like a homeless swarm rather than a phalanx.
I await your next quip and/or comments. Less snarky, more humor is the way to go.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.17.09 @ 1:52PM
Pixie...(male or female).
I must admit, I am short of humor these days. Our country is dealing with a December 7th most every day from the INSIDE..........I find myself digging a foxhole....and it is not fun.
http://judgeroy.wordpress.com
Dixie Pixie| 11.17.09 @ 5:35PM
To: Ken
Sorry to hear that.
I suggest libations in moderation, a copy of the “Blue Collar Comedy Tour” and lots of warm blankets.
As for your foxhole problem, look into prefab cold war shelters. They are still available. Outfit it as a rec- room with a complete bar and plasma wide-screen home theater system. Do it right, impress your friends , prepackage your design and create a nice little side business. Six feet of soil, rock and steel will stop any liberal phalanx. Why not ride out the oncoming Obama-riots in style and comfort.
As for the gender issue consider this, if the Obama “Brute Squad “ of the “Office of Suspicious Internet Posts” is after me, I hope they use the following description. Small, fast flying male, diminutive translucent silverish wings, green and sky blue frock, light brown to soft yellow hair, perky nose and puckish nature. With any luck the Brute Squad will pass by with-out a glance.
Best of luck with your website and Team America operation.
Al Adab| 11.17.09 @ 6:49PM
As the latest bumper sticker says,"Pray for President Obama-Psalm 109:8"
Look it up first.
Jane McCallond| 2.5.10 @ 9:29AM
As the latest bumper sticker says,"Pray for President Obama-Psalm 109:8"
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