Political Hay
The Republican Recovery
Whether the GOP wants it or not.
On the heels of two disastrous election cycles, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans were doomed to wander in the wilderness for decades unless their party underwent serious changes. Even on the right, there quickly emerged a cottage industry of conservative self-help books dedicated to helping the GOP rebuild and rebrand.
The prescriptions varied depending on the authors’ policy prescriptions: embrace big government or repudiate compassionate conservatism, rethink the national security policy of the Bush years or return to the approach of the first Bush term, jettison polarizing social issues or use them to build bridges into minority communities. But there was some rough consensus that the party needed to formulate an economic agenda for the middle class, come to terms with its past failures and find its voice on issues like health care.
Republicans have done almost none of these things. No promising national leader has come forward with a stature approaching Barack Obama’s. Quite the contrary, Republicans have recently watched the implosion of South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and the resignation of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. The party remains much more readily identifiable by what it is against rather than what it is for, and moderate figures like Colin Powell continue to lament its capture by “a very far right wing” base.
Beneath the prognostications of doom and gloom, however, Republicans are showing real signs of life. The GOP is heavily favored to take the governorship in New Jersey this year, where Republican Chris Christie leads by double digits in some polls. Republicans are slight favorites in the Virginia governor’s race, despite an increasing Democratic trend in the Old Dominion over the past few elections.
If the 2010 elections were held today, Republicans would pick up a Senate seat in Connecticut (if the Democrats don’t get Chris Dodd first) and have an even shot of reclaiming Arlen Specter’s in Pennsylvania — the latter by running a former president of the Club for Growth. Republicans would even win a one-on-one race against Gov. Deval Patrick in Massachusetts, one of the nation’s bluest states.
According to both NPR and Rasmussen Reports, Republicans now lead in the generic congressional ballot. National Republicans have succeeded in getting their top choices to run for Senate in Illinois and Florida. Delaware may not be far behind. Just this week, they managed to nudge their most vulnerable incumbent, Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, into retirement, improving their chances in that state.
House Republicans are faring even better at candidate recruitment. They have a target-rich environment, as the Democratic majority is padded with the votes of red-state congressmen who in 2006 and 2008 won districts where Obama was unpopular back when his national approval ratings were above 60 percent. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas), chairman of the GOP’s congressional campaign committee, boasts that he will make a play for 80 Democratic-held seats next year.
Congressional Quarterly’s analysis makes clear that Republicans are longshots to retake even the House at this point. But unlike many of the Democrats representing districts carried by John McCain, most of the 34 Republicans holding seats in Obama districts have weathered tough election cycles before; 2010 will be a very different climate than 2006 or 2008.
That’s why the Democrats’ best pickup opportunities are in Obama districts where the incumbents are not running for re-election: Mark Kirk in Illinois, Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania, John McHugh in New York, and maybe soon Michael Castle in Delaware. There are many more Walt Minnicks and Frank Kratovils — junior Democrats representing conservative-leaning areas — in the House than Joseph Caos.
Far from heeding the centrists’ advice, Republicans have followed a strategy of opposition to most of Obama’s major initiatives: the stimulus, cap and trade, health care, and even Sonia Sotomayor. In the Senate Judiciary Committee this week, Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) voted against a Supreme Court nominee for the first time in their careers.
With a stimulus that has failed to stimulate, a health care plan that is starting to tank in the polls, and politically tone-deaf Democratic forays into racial politics, opposition has so far been a profitable strategy for Republicans. It may continue to pay dividends. Whatever yesterday’s deal between Henry Waxman and the Blue Dogs does for the prospects of health care reform, pass or fail it makes Democrats in marginal districts vote on tax increases, a bigger budget deficit, and mandatory abortion coverage.
The danger of an opposition-based strategy that doesn’t address any of the GOP’s long-term problems is obvious: if the economy begins to recover, if Obama’s approval ratings improve following a major legislative victory Republicans are still powerless to deny him, if the party peaks in 2010 and forces the president to tack to the center before running for re-election, Republicans won’t be left with much to say.
Bill Clinton’s liberal overreach doomed the Democrats in 1994. Triangulation, and a Republican Party that couldn’t find more inspiring leadership than what Bob Dole had to offer, saved them in 1996.
Yet even with those risks, it is possible that the Republican Party’s epitaphs following 2006 and 2008 will look as premature as the talk of a permanent Republican majority was after 2004.
About the Author
W. James Antle, III, author of the new book Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?, is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and a senior editor of The American Spectator. You can follow him on Twitter @jimantle.
Steve| 7.30.09 @ 8:02AM
Don't worry I hear the Repub.'s will nominate McCain for president and Lindsey (milquetoast) Graham for vice president in 2012.
Bill| 7.30.09 @ 8:34AM
Like hell they will
Tim| 7.30.09 @ 8:44AM
There are many fine septuagenarian Senators to choose from.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 9:11AM
Part of Rahm Emanuel's strategy in growing the Democrats was to bring in conservative/"Blue Dog" candidates in conservative districts, i.e., the broadening of the party. With the actions of the Blue Dog's in holding back the healthcare plan, some on the extreme left want to back ultra left wing candidates to run against these Blue Dog's. This will destroy the Democrat majority just like social conservatives have destroyed Reagan's coalition. These races will be won or lost by those who can attract the political middle. It has always been this way and will continue to be so.
Furthermore, Antle, you are basing your assumptions on the fact that the economy is not doing well. If we see signs of a turnaround, all of these gains will quickly disappear as people vote their pocketbooks. It is highly probably, from an economics point of view, that the economy will turn around by next summer/fall. The lag time between being technically out of recessions (which is now) and job growth is typically about a year to 18 months.
Negative positions work when they correspond to perceived economic realities. Negative campaigning is working temporarily, but there is a huge amount of time between now and the 2010 elections from a political perspective. If the economy turns around, then campaigns based on these negatives will not work. That's what's wrong with this short term strategy.
Robert Rosencrans| 7.30.09 @ 9:30AM
We're technically out of a recession? Glad to hear that. Last year at this time unemployment weekly claims were at 350,000. Not they're at 585,000 or so. So glad to hear that's an improvement. I am relieved.
Turk| 7.30.09 @ 9:34AM
Having resigned my position on my county central committee I have given up on the repub party (for now), though some happy surprises have happened lately (Grassley/Hatch). In many places, however rino/country clubbers continue to run the party into the ground(ie Fla where they have endorsed and support a rino to end all rino's) Here in Ohio we have a party controlled by those who "me too" the leftist dems. Sen Voinavich destroyed the U.N. appointment of the most sterling appointment by GW, John Bolton. His co-hort(at the time) was the dweeb Dewine who was a member of the gang of 7 with McCain/Graham et al. Dewine, having been tossed out, now runs runs runs for state AG. Pathetic! Yet they still admire the likes of closet dems like Powell/Specter et al. The Republic is in danger, not because of the leftist dems but because they have ineffective opponents(ie Graham-S.C. and his ilk). They have the example of the founding fathers and their determined reach for Liberty, and they fall woefully short.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 9:37AM
Well, Rosencrans, I think it's time to learn something about economics. Recession is defined in terms of GDP growth. Job growth has little to do with this. Job growth always lags because market growth causing increased demand takes time to ramp up to the point where new hiring takes place. Historically, this has been a year to 18 months. Your comment shows an extreme lack of understanding of economics.
My point was that by the time the election occurs at the end of next year, we should be seeing some job recovery. If we do, this will help Democrats and hurt Republicans.
Indiana Alex| 7.30.09 @ 10:18AM
Mark Kirk voted for cap and tax. Great to have Reps like that in the Senate, hun?
randyinrocklin| 7.30.09 @ 10:23AM
Mark Kirk for Senate in IL, Mike Castle in DE, and Crist in Fl, what a winning team....not....we dont need anymore rhinos running for the senate we have enough of them already.
Steve| 7.30.09 @ 10:28AM
Bill, I was being facetious. The Repub.'s will put up Rommey who is for the Free Trade Agreement with Brazil. That will allow Ford to move their auto plants and parts plants down there and destroy another 200,000 jobs in America. Since the 1930 when Henry Ford purchased 1000s of acres of land in Brazil, the company has been waiting for this. They just built a billion dollar plant on the land and are just waiting for Free Trade Agreement to go through. Remember George Bush II was talking about the Brazil deal was a good thing for the working people of America. He said 80 percent of goods shipped from the US to Brazil would be tariff free and only 20 percent would have tariffs on them. What King George forgot to tell us is, 80 percent of what we send to Brazil falls in the 20 percent that still has tariffs. I am sure it was just an oversight on the Kings part. And 95 percent of goods coming from Brazil would be tariff free including the cars and trucks that used to be made in the US.
Stan Redmond| 7.30.09 @ 10:37AM
Until the Repulicans play in the mud like the Alinsky democrats they won't win. Having liberal republicans like McCain run against the professional hard-core leftists like Obama is a losing strategy. Why go for lib-lite when you can get the supersize liberal. It's sad the only reason the republicans 'seem' to be stronger is because the democrats are pushing so hard and so fast to socialism and the "blame Bush" cry is wearing thin. Until republicans put up someone who can educate the population and get air-time they won't win in 2010 or 2012. There are too many ignorant voters who just blindly follow whatever spews out of the one's mouth.
And Bob makes an excellent point about job recovery. I don't believe there will be a market driven job growth period because I'm in the manufacturing industry and there is zero growth planned for a long time. We are hunkering down until this clown is out of office or we at least know what our taxes will be so we can avoid them by sending projects overseas (harsh reality time). But rather any new job growth this term will be a "stimulus" pork job program. Americorp and ACORN will suddenly get that $100,000,000,000 check and surprise, there's instantly 1 million new jobs just in time for the 2010 census and midterm elections. And what's this? Another big check for Americorps and ACORN just in time for the 2012 election that created another 1 million jobs. The only realistic way of defeating the democrats is democrats defeating themselves and their disastrous foreign policy of coddling the world's tyrants.
JAH666| 7.30.09 @ 10:40AM
While the Dems always seem to have coordinated and strong short-medium-long range agendas; why is it that Reps always seem to be struggling for any coordinated strategy to even hold the ground they stand on? Even if this is just wrongly perceived on my part, the dispiriting aspect of a lack of coordinated strategy only hepls the Dems look more unified in their goals.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 10:55AM
Stan, most of the job growth will be in the service industries, and not manufacturing. We haven't competed in manufacturing for a long time now. Remember that 2/3rds of the economy is consumption, not manufacturing. Currently, we are seeing some job growth begin in financial services after the huge layoffs directly related to the bailouts. Credit is beginning to loosen up for qualified applicants. In about a year you'll see lots of new local services replacing some of those that went out of business.
We must find a way to increase the amount of manufacturing in this country. Unions, healthcare, lawsuits, etc., make this an unfriendly country for manufacturing except where you are shipping large, heavy items like cars where the expense of shipping is greater than the cost of anti-business policies.
Hardius| 7.30.09 @ 11:12AM
If what I am reading here is true then the Dems have the wrong plan and the Reps have no plan.
I think I will vote Libertarian because I want a different outcome then what I have seen since the 80's.
The Dems attack my gun rights and the reps attack my privacy rights.
The Dems tax and spend and the Reps borrow and spend.
Time for a new plan.
Len| 7.30.09 @ 11:46AM
WOW!! GREAT!! WONDERFUL!!
So this means that we are going to end up with a true federalist, US constitution, rule of law party?
C'mon, what does it matter if there is a republican recovery in numbers of elected officials, when their core approach to government is still statist-lite?
Until the repugs get serious about basing their approach to government on natural rights at all levels and most importantly at the federal level carrying out their responsibility to govern for the benefit of the states, in the three areas of common defense, regulating commerce (COMMERCE, not business, or managing the economy), and maintaining harmony between the states so that they may according to their distinct societies govern for their people as they best see it, not as other parties would have it.
Doctor Right| 7.30.09 @ 11:49AM
So CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY thinks that the Republicans' chances of retaking the House in 2010 are slim?
I disagree.
Obama is barely six-months into his "Presidency", and his approval ratings at this juncture are the 10th lowest of the last 12 Presidents, and dropping like a stone. He is an idealogue who won't compromise on his socialist agenda, meaning he's incapable of triangulation like Clinton was between 1994-2000.
His Party's leaders in the House and Senate are unpopular hacks who push the socialist agenda to please their hard-left constituencies of unions, gays, far-left lunatics, ignorant college students (DAILYKOS, anyone?) and illegal immigrants.
The "agenda" of the left is beginning to implode. The Dims would like to remake our nation in the European mode, but Americans are NOT sheep-like (as are most of the Europeans). We don't like socialism or big government, and when we get a taste of it, we will utterly reject it.
Even some of Obama's supporters have reversed course since November, having realized that the stooge-Emperor truly has no clothes.
If Republicans and Conservatives are starting to feel upbeat (and we are) at this stage in Obama's "Presidency", and if OBama continues to push his socialist agenda (he will; it's all he knows), then things will only get worse for the left, and they know it, which is precisiely why Obama constantly insists that everything on his agenda must be done "In a hurry".
So I think the Republicans chances of retaking the House in 2010 are no worse than even...And the odds get better every day that the public sees more of Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et al.
To paraphrase Admiral Yamamoto:
"Obama has awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve."
Michael Tomlinson| 7.30.09 @ 11:54AM
Despite my distaste for some GOP politician’s policy decisions (most recently Graham’s decision to support the incompetent Sotomayor) one thing I'm thankful for is they aren't two-faced "blue dogs" (Reid, Pelosi and Obama's bitches). That is the most useless and self-serving group of politicians in America. Despite all the ink and verbiage spewed about their fiscal and social conservatism they are good liberal lap dogs and will roll over and vote for what their masters tell them to vote for and when it comes to earmarks in our bloated budget they are pack leaders in begging. Of course, no one holds a candle to earmark King Ron Paul.
As for Bob's prognostication about Obama’s economy it’s magical thinking. The real engine of the American economy, consumer spending (70% of GDP), isn't chugging and as unemployment continues to rise it likely won’t. If the economy takes till next summer or fall to turn around, as Bob opines, Democrats will be in even worse shape than they are now – it takes time for voter sentiment to change. This is best illustrated by Obama’s poll numbers still barely averaging above 50% while solid majorities of Americans are suffering from and oppose his ludicrous and insidious policies. By this time next year if the economy is still in the doldrums Republicans have the potential of doing far better than even today’s rosy scenarios, but from a purely political standpoint it would be best if the Democrats held onto both Houses by slim majorities so they can get all the blame they richly deserve for hurting America.
In the area of ideas Republicans aren’t rushing to merely throw something up against the wall and see if it sticks and resonates with the public. They’re taking their time to develop thoughtful and workable alternatives to Democrat insanity. For instance they’ve just unveiled a major health care reform bill that isn’t a sure to fail government run bureaucracy aimed at rationing and denying medical treatment to ill Americans at higher prices.
As for a “leader” we don’t need a “leader.” Republicans are individualists and we’ll choose our party standard bearer in the primaries – a more youthful, conservative and attractive candidate than 2008. Let the brain dead Democrats live by the neo-fascist idea of the “leader” or cult of personality they’re merely sheeple waiting to be sheered.
Al Adab| 7.30.09 @ 11:58AM
Once again we see that the problem with Republicans is the Republicans. It was the Conservative movement which brought them success in 1980, 1996 and they took themselves down in 06 and 08.
There is too much attention given to the "Who" rather than to the "What" in discussing candidates.
Those who stand for nothing (in principle) will stand for anything. The so-called RINOs ARE the Republican party. Twice we followed them to defeat. Whether the Conservatives and Constitutionalists can again make that party their home remains to be see, but they need to be somewhere.
Unfortunately the stakes are very high both for our country, our children and grandchildren and for the very future of mankind. If Liberty is lost, future ages will curse us for our failure while they suffer under a long, dark night of tyranny.
W. James Antle III | 7.30.09 @ 12:15PM
"Furthermore, Antle, you are basing your assumptions on the fact that the economy is not doing well."
Bob, read the third-to-last paragraph of the column. I specifically note how all of this could come apart.
Robert Rosencrans| 7.30.09 @ 12:29PM
If 2/3 of the economy is consumer driven and jobless claims are twice as high now as they were last year then any claims of success must be viewed with suspicion. GDP is expected to fall throughout the year and low paying service jobs require additional government spending. Indulging in joy and alluding to technical non-existent recoveries would seem to me to indicate lack of knowledge, lack of experience and a belief in the technical correction fairy.
William| 7.30.09 @ 12:39PM
The corpse still twitches but the GOP is dead.
Red Phillips | 7.30.09 @ 12:47PM
If conservatives are going to gripe about RINOs like Crist, Castle and Kirk, as well they should, then they need to field some opposition. Crist has Rubio (maybe?) and DeRosa in the Constitution Party. Last I checked, Kirk did not have much rightist opposition and I don't think Castle does either. Kirk has some opposition but it mostly seems to be from rather non-ideological good government types, not specifically conservative opposition. I could be wrong about that. I would be happy to hear from someone more familiar with IL and DE if they have any intel.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 1:06PM
Antle, it's nice to have an "out" in your verbiage, but the thrust of your post is certainly that Republicans seem to be doing well. When Republicans get some leadership and realize they must expand the party, they will make some headway.
Michael -- Reagan went down to 40% in his second year as the economy worsened. He turned out all right as the economy got better and so will Obama. Most people don't care about politics, they care about feeding their families, putting a roof over their heads, buying some stuff, and keeping their families safe. If they think their job is secure and their future is positive, they'll like the President no matter who he/she is.
Rosencrans, please show me some economic forecasts where GDP is expected to fall in the coming months. Here is the CBO chart where the nominal GDP shows growth.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10014/AppendixA.7.2.shtml
This is certainly less optimistic than the White House, but is consistent with both liberal and conservative economists. From what personal orifice do you get your data?
Red -- conservatives need RINO's to win just like Democrats needed DINO's (Blue Dogs) to win. That's just the name of the game. Those on the extreme left hate Blue Dogs as much as your extreme rightists hate moderates. However, you need us more than we need you.
Pingback| 7.30.09 @ 1:51PM
The Republican Recovery « Thoughts Of A Conservative Christian links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Stroctor | 7.30.09 @ 1:58PM
I keep hoping for Dems losing seats on 2010. That will be the test that decides the direction of our country. I fear that Obama will come to the center like he did during the general. I see red every time some morron says, "wow, i'm so surprized Obama turned out to be a lefty." There were so many red flags running up to the election. The MSM will still be in the tank for Obama, and the sheeple will continue to vote for the Dems.
randyinrocklin| 7.30.09 @ 2:02PM
Castle and Kirk voted yes on cap and tax, and Crist supported porkulus and higher taxes. Are they really what we need in the Senate?????? They should change parties since they voted against core conservative prinicples.
Robert Rosencrans| 7.30.09 @ 2:05PM
Using that link to CBO indicates that real GDP will fall 3% in 2009. That doesn't sound very good to me. A recession is defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP and that's precisely what we had in the first two quarters of 2009.
Here's another CBO entry where the projections are broken down and discussed further "as historically low" referring to the future of GDP for many years to come. That's not good for anyone and certainly not good for politicians pissing away a trillion dollars.
As far as GDP projections these projections are being made by the same groups who missed the downdrafts in GDP to begin with. Perhaps if we checked our orifices we could get more accurate information. At least that's the way it seems.
As far as being less optimistic than the White House, the White House is filled with politicians who by their very nature are liars. That type of information is rarely useful and less so then ever from the Obama White House since Obama never stops lying.
In fact, this CBO blog from March 2009 paints a rather negative picture of the future. In the meantime I will be checking orifices for more accurate information. I aim to please.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?m=200903
For the next few years, CBO projects faster growth than the Blue Chip, as the economy grows back toward CBO’s estimate of potential GDP (which corresponds to a high level of use of labor and capital resources). Still, the CBO forecast assumes that the gap between actual and potential output closes more slowly than in previous recoveries because of a persistent drag from financial markets, households’ loss of wealth, the overhang of vacant houses, and weak economic growth overseas. Therefore, CBO projects that the economy does not return to its potential level until 2014.
In the 2015-2019 period, the projected rate of real GDP growth averages 2.4 percent. That rate is lower than during the period from 2010 to 2014, largely because there is no longer any gap to close between actual and potential GDP.
Projected growth from 2015 to 2019 is also below historical average growth rates, a difference that is more than accounted for by slower growth in the labor force because of the retirement of the baby boom generation. Over the postwar period, the labor force grew at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent; by contrast, we project it to grow only 0.4 percent per year in the period from 2015 through 2019. As a result, potential GDP grew 3.4 percent per year on average in the postwar period, but CBO expects that it will grow by only 2.4 percent annually (allowing for a tad more productivity growth) in the 2015-2019 period. That demographic trend is reflected also in the Social Security Administration’s projections of the labor force, available here. CBO published its own analysis of demographic trends; while the numbers have changed a little with new information since then, the general story remains the same.
To be sure, all economic forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty, as we emphasized in our report. But I hope that this discussion of the logic behind the latest CBO forecast is helpful to readers of that report.
L. Ross| 7.30.09 @ 2:16PM
Hi Bob:
I will admit, I don't have a degree in economics, but I do have some common sense. Here is my concern regarding the long term recovery of the economy.
To me, it all comes down to real estate. Admittedly, I left one of the worst hit areas in the nation 18 months ago, and moved to another of the worst hit areas, both in California, one of the worst hit states. No doubt, that colors my preception of the real estate market to a degree.
However, when housing prices are down significantly, and even a small percentage of people are upside down, some of those people will make the rational decision to walk away from their mortgage. This will have a cascade affect, lowering the values of every home in the neighborhood, causing more people to be upside down, etc. The bottom will be reached when a home's value is equal to the value of the permits, land, materials, and labor to replace the home. Assuming, of course, that builders haven't overbuilt the neighborhood to the extent that there are more houses than people who wish to live there.
The point here is that everyone in this kind of neighborhood loses a lot of home value, and for most American's, the value of their home is their number one investment.
Now you mention that credit is loosening for "well qualified investors". Yet, how could housing prices begin to recover if investors have to be "well qualified". The median home value where I live was $400,000 just 18 months ago. How many families can cough up an $80,000 down payment (20%)? Even if they are not underwater, chances are they aren't far above the waterline. And they are not going to take the cash out of the stock market. Not until it is at least above 12000. People don't want to take that large a hit.
I'm sorry, Bob, but I don't see the bottom being hit in the housing sector until about 2012 (5 years after they began to tighten up loan requirements). After that, I'm afraid with the agregate losses in home values throughout America, it will be very, very difficult for people to come up with solid down payments which banks have again begun to demand. The demand for those down payments will keep home values low for a very long time.
If people are saving money for a downpayment, they are not spending it in the economy. They will be putting off the purchase of new cars, computers, all kinds of things which they said yes to when the value of their house was skyrocketing. This will savings will slow the recovery to a crawl for a very long time.
I know, Bob, I know. I didn't study economics and I don't know what I'm talking about. But, I bet I'm right.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 2:40PM
Rosencrans -- we already hit the mark on the -3% so the rest of the year will be up according to the forecast. Nice try, but wrong again.
L. Ross -- you are not wrong from a local viewpoint. For the hard hit states like California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, etc., the recession will last longer and be deeper. However, most other areas of the country are turning around right now. It will take time for jobs to turn around, but consumer spending, on average, will increase.
The California market is going through the end of the delay cycle on defaults and Alt-A's still must hit the market. I would expect downward pressures on home prices in California to continue for at least another year as you have stated. In my analysis, California prices are still too high on average for most buyers given the more restrictive credit standards. I know a lot about the California market because my sister is a broker and my kids are searching for new homes.
This table shows the average prices for homes across the U.S. You'll see a bottom in the first quarter of 2009. Interestingly enough, if you take a look at the housing bubble longer term, you'll see we are ending up right where we should be given the slope of the longer term line:
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/
L. Ross, you are certainly not off base with your perceptions for California -- they agree with mine. But this does not apply to the country as a whole.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 2:41PM
L. Ross -- I forgot the reference to the table:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/cenc25/c25q07
Robert Rosencrans| 7.30.09 @ 3:08PM
It is rather amazing that some people can look at facts, declare they're meaningless, then declare their facts meaningful.
Only someone intellectually bred in a burceaucracy would engage is that type of behavior. It explains why nothing is ever accomplished inside the beltway except finger pointing and circular social events whose costs the taxpayers get to pay.
Charming!
Michael Tomlinson| 7.30.09 @ 3:13PM
Bob as you note things turned around after Reagan's 2d year when he was working to reverse the Carter depression and wring out massive inflation caused by his Obama like policies. Yet, in the mid-term elections Republicans were slaughtered, because like Democrats today they were the party in power . . . Presidential standing has little impact on mid-term elections. The only modern exception was 2004 when President Bush, who had coattails in 2002, not only helped Republicans hold onto Congress, but increased their majorities. Republicans only suffered losses when too many conservatives started doing the Democrats dirty work for them. You know the myth that Republicans could throw away an election or two or “losing was really winning.”
One thing you fail to appreciate is that the Democrats believe in the policies that are devastating the country and will continue to devastate it. Not only is unemployment going to continue going up, but in the future we have the potential for hyper inflation thanks to Obama Democrat’s unchecked spending and deficits. You can also look for Republicans to remind people Democrats are going to allow their personal income taxes to go up by not extending the generous George W. Bush tax cuts.
While Obama’s rich supporters have stayed loyal to him (54%) the middle class are abandoning him in droves (only 49% approve of his leadership). Among the vaunted independents he's down to 42% approval. Those under 50 are deserting him too. He is down by 7% with Hispanics and that number will continue to rise as unemployment continues to climb and linger as it is predicted to do well into next year. In fact, if we have a jobless recovery watch Democrats suffer more as their class warfare rhetoric comes back to haunt them and only the rich (primarily Democrats) do well in America. Among the 50% of those who disapprove of Obama disapprove strongly -- a group that is not going to be easily turned around in its opinion.
As a lifelong pragmatic Reagan/Bush conservative and son of a Goldwater conservative I don’t hate moderates. In fact, on many issues I appreciate their votes for tax cuts, conservative judges like Roberts and Alito and willingness to defend the US from Muslim extremists. I do get frustrated when they are so easily seduced by media fawning and the ideal of political civility with two-faced lying Democrats. But face it Ronald Reagan the father of triumphant conservatism made more deals with Democrats than George W. Bush ever thought of.
There is no such thing as a DINO. Pelosi and Obama's bitches or blue dogs are just liberals, who like to talk about being fiscally and socially conservative, but vote for massive spending, higher taxes and stand by with their heads up their butts while their Democrat party eviscerates the nation’s social policies and values.
Finally, Robert nice economic analysis, but be careful checking orifices if you look up a liberal politicians ass you’ll probably run into a journalist or Muslim terrorist. If you get lucky to look up Obama’s you’re going to find he’s hollow.
Tim| 7.30.09 @ 3:58PM
Bob:
"It has always been this way and will continue to be so. "
If the subject was your smugness I'd agree...
W. James Antle III | 7.30.09 @ 4:40PM
"Antle, it's nice to have an 'out' in your verbiage, but the thrust of your post is certainly that Republicans seem to be doing well. "
Because they are doing well at the moment. We're looking at a snapshot in time here, subject to change if the surrounding events change. That's not an "out," that's just reality.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 7.30.09 @ 4:57PM
http://aja.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/21/3/164
The purpose of this retrospective study of 116 dementia patients with and without accusatory behavior was to determine its frequency and evaluate its relationship to individual characteristics, behavioral and psychological symptoms, and certain dementia-related domains, namely, cognitive impairment, stage of disease, language difficulties, and functional disability. Little more than one third (38%) of the patients studied had accusatory behavior. The average age of the patients with accusatory behavior was 74 years, and the male to female ratio was 2.6:1. Accusatory behavior was more prevalent in the higher stages of dementia by 2- to 3-fold and was positively associated with hallucinations. Three patients with accusatory behavior had delusions of infidelity. There were no significant associations between accusatory behavior and other categories studied. This study raises a caveat of issues and, more important, whether the different themes relating to accusatory behaviors are true delusions, persecutory ideation, misidentification, nondelusional suspiciousness, or other. It is suggested that it would be more useful to relate them as symptoms.
Bob| 7.30.09 @ 5:02PM
Rosencrans, if you understood the underlying mathematics of the numbers you tried to use, you'd realize you were wrong. But I know, that's a tall order for you.
Michael, you are absolutely correct that in mid-term elections, the party out of power picks up some votes. I've already acknowledged that, but you also have factors working in the opposite direction -- the largest of which are the changing demographics. I expect the Dems to lose a couple of seats, but not as many as Republicans here think. My point was simply the timing is in favor of the Dems if jobs start to grow in the summer of next year as history shows. If jobs do not grow, then the Dems will lose a few more seats. The next vote will depend more on the state of the economy than the ideology of candidates.
Antle, how did you get so level headed? If what I believe comes true, and if Republicans run ultra right wing social conservatives for openings in split, or mostly liberal districts, in the end, they will not gain any seats. If they come to their senses and run people who are ideologically consistent with their moderate constituency in those districts, they have a chance to pick up some seats. In the past, you supported the latter notion. Do you still support it?
Robert Rosencrans| 7.30.09 @ 5:21PM
As was noted earlier, those who use information from groups who misinformed you previously may be misleading you now. Was it Albert Einstein who stated, 'If you do the same thing every day and expect different results, that's the definition of insanity."
In essence, choose your economists and predictions wisely. Here are a few further illustrations to ponder.
http://mises.org/story/3582
Forecasting the economic future means forecasting decisions on investment and consumption that are as uncertain as the whole future. The professional forecasters pretend that they have a sort of monopoly of clairvoyance in this respect. They forget, however, that it is precisely the main occupation of entrepreneurs to predict future demand in order to adjust their production to it. What leads to the maldistribution of demand — called the business cycle — is that the majority of entrepreneurs are at times too optimistic or too pessimistic; that they either invest too much and too soon, or too little and too late. Now there is not the slightest reason to assume that in the game of forecasting future demands correctly the theorists will be on the average more successful than the businessmen. On the contrary, it can be assumed that the businessmen will on the average do better. They are more responsible. For businessmen suffer losses when they err, whereas the theorists can forecast with no risk — not even to their prestige, it seems.
Thought for the day:
Ludwig von Mises: "Plato was anxious to find a tyrant who would use his power for the realization of the Platonic ideal state. The question whether other people would like or dislike what he himself had in store for them never occurred to Plato." - The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science
Xavier Cugat| 7.30.09 @ 5:32PM
Where's the Birth Certificate?
sceptic| 7.30.09 @ 5:42PM
I think the new Republican candidates should all pledge to vote for a constitutional amendment for congressional term limits. This will have a galvanizing effect on the election. I'll bet very few incumbent Democrats would back that and the voters are so disgusted with most politicians they would vote for anyone promising that.
Hill Staffer | 7.30.09 @ 5:48PM
I have noticed a number of prominent GOP legislators and executives that fit the mold, in my opinion, for a presidential run in 2012.
Rep. Paul Ryan has been an outspoken voice against ObamaCare. His showing on MSNBC yesterday was fantastic. He is young, charismatic, well-spoken, and fairly moderate (he supported the stimulus, I think, which of course would be an issue in any primary).
Bobby Jindal, gaffes aside, is still a great candidate. Like Ryan, he has put forward viable alternative plans to the 'public option,' and also like Ryan he is young and charismatic. Forgive my crassness, but the GOP also needs to establish its minority creds.
Sen. Jim DeMint, I think, has the ability to galvanize conservatives of all stripes. His new book makes a compelling case for a GOP message of liberty that can encompass all conservatives, from libertarians to foreign policy hawks to the religious right. That said, in trying to reach out to the center he may not be the best choice, given his recent quarrels with congressional Dems and the White House.
Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana has one of the most impressive resumes of any chief executive. His work in balancing the budget while maintaining--even enhancing--state-run programs could serve as a model for market solutions (or at least non-governmental solutions) to many of America's problems. His heartland roots would also strike a chord with Middle America.
Thom| 7.30.09 @ 5:59PM
Having started my study of economics in 1970 under Keynesian’s theories when the word “stagflation” did not exist and was considered an economic impossibility (oops) and ended up with Samuelson and Freidman by the late eighties I learned after all that study that economics, particularly macro is not a science and some people put way too much faith in the micro environment combined with the macro environment responding in precise scientific ways. Since the beginning of the formal study of economics there have been just as many two handed economists on each side of an argument as now and two thirds of them end up being wrong.
I have in front of me the 1936 Social Security Administration’s statement as to the tax rate growth (includes the fiction of there being an employer and employee portion) and maximum income range (adjusted for inflation) subject to that tax and includes the phrase “That is the most you will ever pay”. No actuary math in the world and an honest economist would stand behind that statement but I suspect many did knowing the math did not add up even in 1936. Next to that is the projection of Medicare/Medicaid growth from its inception till 1990 (adjusted for inflation) and likewise that estimate was missed by cost of the F-22 fighter program. These programs are setting at 1.2 trillion today and by 2016 the current 15.3 tax rate won’t pay their outlays short of Obamacare finding a way to kill a bunch of boomers off early or send us all to Cuba for “free” care.
So all those that put “faith” in statistical projections by the CBO, which is about as accurate as the two above projections of cost, have at it. The error introduced in the first assumption in any statistical projection produces the largest long term error and given the numbers we are talking about and the wide swings in the projections I wouldn’t trust any agency in the Federal government at this point to project what it spent yesterday a year from now. And to the person that can’t figure out that markets are driven by risk vs. reward tempered by F.U.D. I’d be a little “conservative” in my optimism about the future GDP given all the F.U.D. being proposed and voted on in the later half of 2009. Markets like certainty; There is little of that in the positive direction right now. In a market trending up over a long enough time an idiot can throw darts at it and make money; In one trending down only experts can make money on niches; In one subject to wide swings most people can’t make money and that is key to long term growth and getting people to invest and spend more money than they are now. I didn’t ride this puppy down and got out when it dipped below 13,000 going down. Most of my boomer friends didn’t and have no hope of recovering their lost wealth before retirement in this market.
It’s interesting to argue over which two handed economists is right or who has the most degrees in economics but the psychology of the market and consumer spending is not trending toward a general uptick. We are entering the 4th quarter where a blind fool can usually make money but most investors know what follows the 4th quarter. My money is on the overall economy staying choppy with a pretty shallow growth trend for years to come. Some things are going to have to get off the political table before enough people are willing to put their faith in the market again and start borrowing and spending like they did in the past even at a more rational level. My corporation of 120,000 employees is looking at everyway possible to cut expenses and unnecessary employees to offset what are projected to be increased cost of doing business and taxes in 2010 and beyond. This is echoed across the Nation. If economics were a discipline subject to strict scientific rules we wouldn’t be in the mess we are and all the rest we’ve been in where one group or the other two handed economists thought they had it all figured out.
Been there, done that.
JimBeam| 7.30.09 @ 6:17PM
The GOP will win some "Blue State" governorships in 2010, but until the Republican Party jettisons its "crazy wing" these folks will not give the national party another vote in Congress.
Lincoln Chafee had over a 60% approval rating when he lost. The reason he lost was because the people of Rhode Island didn't want to give the Republican Party another vote in the Senate. It should be noted that the more conservative Don Carcieri was re-elected as Governor on the same ballot.
Massachusetts had four consecutive Republican governors, but they didn't even send one Republican Congressman to Washington.
When New Jersey elects another moderate Republican named Christie as Governor this November, this does not mean that they will elect any to Congress next year.
I expect Republicans to gain at the state level, but the gains at the national level will be minimal.
L. Ross| 7.30.09 @ 6:26PM
Thom:
I couldn't agree more. I have written many times on this site, "If you can't apply the scientific method (repeated experiments, controlling for one variable change at a time to observe results) it isn't a science. It's all conjecture. That is why the economists are on all different sides of the economy issue. They are full of conjecture, usupported by scientific data.
Thom| 7.30.09 @ 6:33PM
L. Ross, I had some tough teachers who generally weren't interested in the politics of economics and most made the point repeatedly that all this study can do is give you a snapshot of the a dynamic process using static data.....Like Climate and Weather models that don't work too well either there are simply too many variables in play to predict all the interactions and their consequences. Economics can only deal with what is considered rational behavior and as we've seen time and time again their are other factors in play that override that from time to time.
L. Ross| 7.30.09 @ 6:33PM
Bob:
Thanks for referencing the housing price website. I do appreciate it. It would be nice if one quarter of climbing home prices led to another, but I'm no so sure. . . .
George Bruce| 7.30.09 @ 6:45PM
I don't see an economic recovery happening. Oh, the rescission will bottom out. Many people who put off replacing worn out sofas or refrigerators will pick up the buying as time goes by, if they still have jobs or pensions. But, with the proposed tax increases, the increases that will necessarily happen, new taxes on payrolls and other costs being shifted to business, I just can't imagine who will be fool enough to invest new money in any enterprise that is not subsidized by the government. Those who have the capital invest will seek instead to protect it from risk and taxes, (good luck to them on that.)
So, the economy will stabilize and even bounce a little, but then nothing. Looks for 10+% unemployment for as far as the eye can see. When tax receipts remain depressed because of, not in spite of, higher rates, and government outlays continue to soar, we will see deficits that are higher than current forecasts. When the Chinese decided they have enough green pieces of paper from us, inflation will hit with a vengeance. High unemployment will be combined with high inflation and the government will print money to keep ACORN subsidized and avoid technical default on existing debt.
The Republicans can benefit from this, but unless we get true conservatives who will roll back government, instead of just slowing the increase, it won't matter. The McCain, Graham and Crist types may keep their hold on the party and pick up seats in 2010, but without a sharp downsizing of our bloated federal government, and massive tax relief, it won't matter. The Republicans will only position themselves to share the blame for what happens.
JimBeam| 7.30.09 @ 6:53PM
Jim DeMint is much more vulnerable than you think. He's losing independents and moderate Republicans in South Carolina with his very polarizing stance on health care.
Jindal has drained Louisiana's swamp (Louisiana was the one bright spot in 2008 for Republicans.) but he is vulnerable like any Southern Republican. Although he is Indian, he is still far more socially conservative than most Americans.
Mitch Daniels is probably the best choice for Republicans, although if the economy has recovered by 2012, Obama will be unbeatable.
EAC| 7.30.09 @ 8:01PM
"If conservatives are going to gripe about RINOs like Crist, Castle and Kirk, as well they should, then they need to field some opposition. "
Indeed. I'm sick of people griping about candidates for whom they cannot even vote (or vote against). If the Florida voters pick Crist, it's their business, just as it's your business to vote for and support conservatives in your own districts! I'm fortunate to be represented by conservatives (in Alabama), but I'm under no stupid illusion that Jeff Sessions could be elected in the northeast (or Florida - much of which is simply a tropical annex of the northeastern US).
You conservatives spouting off about RINOs all the damn time with absolutely no understanding of how local elections work really irritate me - and I say that as a conservative. Political ignorance and "purity" tests from all sectors of the GOP base are a big reason why the party of Pelosi has been winning - it's not JUST the do-nothing Republicans we elect! Pull your heads out and quit helping the opposition!
Chromehawk| 7.30.09 @ 8:03PM
For most of what he says Bob is right.
Unless this turns out to be a jobless recovery ( it does happen ).
People do tend to vote their pocket books from the middle.
In fact the middle tends to vote in the following order ...
A ) Are things workingÉ
B ) Are you honest or a crookÉ
C ) Are you likableÉ
D ) Telling us what we MUST do whether we like it or not.
if things are working, and someone has their hands in the cookie jar ... maybe the middle will stick with the crook they know versus the one they do not.
2006 + 2008 was a not only are things NOT working BUT your hands in the cookie jar ... FIRED.
We do not like being told we MUST accept ( passing same-sex marriage via Court Ruling versus passing it via a Ballot proposition. The left finds ballot repulsive because you do not put a right up to a vote ... but the process IS better than saying we are shoving this down your throat ).
All that aside ... if unemployment is 6-8% then the dems will do fine.
If it is 10%+ then Joe the Plumber could beat Obama.
If it is 8-10% or even lower, but quite a few people are getting $12 per hour ( in service sector jobs ) versus $18 per hour ( in mfg ) -- dems are toast too.
WhyÉ Because of pocket book. Making 70 cents on the dollar of what I WAS making is NOT recovery to ME.
And I will vote the bums out.
ben| 7.30.09 @ 8:09PM
I see a lot of people talking about how the Dems are digging their own grave with their policies and Repubs are going to rebound because of it. This should be true but there is one variable no one is mentioning - the media. As long as the media (music, movies, tv shows, magazines, novels, "news", etc) keeps propping up liberalism and pushing conservatism down, we are swimming upstream. They have the audience which is all of us, and they have the coverage to push their propoganda upon us almost constantly. The media controls the minds of the masses and with them actively fighting for liberalism we conservatives have a very difficult road ahead.
Thom| 7.30.09 @ 8:11PM
Chromehawk|, which one of these cost Clinton both the House and Senate in 1994?
A ) Are things workingÉ
B ) Are you honest or a crookÉ
C ) Are you likableÉ
D ) Telling us what we MUST do whether we like it or not.
From what I hear all the time the economy was cooking under Clinton then.
JohnR| 7.30.09 @ 8:16PM
It's Romney in 2012. He's really the most logical choice because:
1. The strategy must be to win back the swing voters, while energizing the Base.
2. Obama's most likely weakness in 2012 will be economic issues, particularly if unemployment is still high. Even if unemployment drops, Obama is still vulnerable on his insane deficits. Romeny has rock solid economic credentials.
3. Romney has the money, has been fully vetted, has very low negative ratings, and is a generally inoffensive guy. He's not somebody who will energize Leftist opposition; let's face it...he was pretty Liberal in a lot of areas as Gov of MA.
But, almost all Presidents who seek reelection wind up winning. It will be very difficult to defeat Obama in 2012.
Dai Alanye | 7.30.09 @ 8:19PM
I see Boob is again… Excuse me. I meant BOB, of course.
Bob is still attempting to justify his incredibly stupid vote for B H Obama by claiming the economy is roaring out of its hole, and that voters remain in love with Blessed Handsome.
Sure, I can see the typical out-of-work over-taxed American checking his copy of Business Week in October 2010 to see if the GDP is high enough to require another vote for the party of America's Half-blood Prince.
I'm personally in fine shape. When the pink slip came I went to my accountant—an Obama voter—for advice. Taking his cue from the Messiah, he advised me to empty my bank accounts, max-out my credit cards, and cash in my 401k. I did as he asked, spending it all on infrastructure improvements.
I now have a fine new driveway, improved landscaping, a small pagoda in the back yard, and have started remodeling of the bathroom and kitchen. By the time all the money is spent our family's prosperity is sure to be right around the corner.
Jim O'Brien| 7.30.09 @ 8:42PM
The Republican Party is a hopeless joke. Even though Judge Sonia Sotomayor is opposed to the rule of law, Republican Senators Lamar Alexander (TN), Lindsey Graham (SC), Dick Lugar (IN), Mel Martinez (FL), Olympia Snowe (ME) and Susan Collins (ME) approve of her becoming the next Supreme Court Justice. If these Senators don't think the rule of law under the Constitution is important, then what if anything matters to them? The Republican Party might just as well not exist, unless it wants to adopt a new name: Socialist Lite Party, to distinguish itself from Obama's Socialist Party.
Jimmy McNulty| 7.30.09 @ 8:54PM
So THIS is where all the disgruntled white guys hang out........see ya in about 2024.....
JimBeam| 7.30.09 @ 9:07PM
Thom, IIRC, a few Democrats in Congress had their hands in the cookie jar in 1994. Also, Congress and the President did a lot of telling people what they MUST do, even though they didn't like it. Finally, a lot of "blue dogs" retired that year, and Republicans took the open seats.
Chromehawk, For all the praise Reagan gets for being the great communicator, he won two landslides by asking the same question twice: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
In 1980, the answer was no.
In 1984, the answer was yes.
In 2008, Obama won on this question, and I believe on this question alone. (Despite Obama's talents, in any other year, McCain would have wiped the floor with him.) The answer to this question will determine whether he wins or loses in 2012.
Louis Acker| 7.30.09 @ 9:58PM
Democrats have been making hay for years by telling people that government is here to take care of their needs. Republicans cannot get anywhere by just saying "No it isn't" and "It's too expensive." Republicans need to become the party of FREEDOM. Democrats have abandoned that concept and now the field is wide open. Freedom is a powerful concept. It was what animated our ancestors to create this great nation, even at the cost of "our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor." The hope of freedom is what is driving Iranians today into the guns and clubs of the Basij. The policies of the Democratic party are easily shown to be inimical to freedom. It is an issue just lying there in the dust, waiting to be picked up. It can remind us who we are. Freedom from excessive government can restore our prosperity. To champion freedom in the world can restore our pride and sense of purpose. Say it and then do it: The Republican party wants to empower you to be free!
Pingback| 7.30.09 @ 10:12PM
Watchtower Headlines – July 31, 2009 « All Along The Watchtower links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
André Kenji | 7.30.09 @ 10:39PM
"Bill, I was being facetious. The Repub.'s will put up Rommey who is for the Free Trade Agreement with Brazil."
Don´t worry, I live in Brazil and this kind of Free Trade Agreement is widely unpopular here. Sure that´s bizarre because the communists that are the biggest opponents of this thing here.
Anyway, I´m rooting to see the Asians building plants here. The cars produced here(Fiat, Ford, GM, Volkswagen) are crappy and expensive.
André Kenji | 7.30.09 @ 10:42PM
" To me, it all comes down to real estate"
No, the problem is the high level of debt, both public and personal in the US. The problem of real estate was that people simply bought houses just to have more debt for consumption.
That was insane and Obama is doing nothing to deal with that. I´m really afraid about the return of stagflation.
mad_as_H| 7.30.09 @ 10:59PM
Someone destroyed the economy on Sept 18 by withdrawing 500 BILLION in money market from Atlanta Federal Reserve bank in 2 hours (Soros?).
Its true - Google it.
This set in motion a rapid decline in the economy which propelled the MARXIST LIAR non-Citizen to the Presidency.
Since becoming "President," OBAMINATOR has destroyed the Democratic Party and nearly the entire US economy. If we don't take a stand now, we will NEVER recover in several generations.
YOU MUST FIGHT FOR YOUR FREEDOM NOW!
Several helpful things to vent your anger (at the right people and place):
1. Cancel all newspapers and turn TV OFF until 2010 election is over (propaganda).
2. Attend TEA PARTIES or organize one in your area.
3. Avoid purchasing non-essentials.
4. Save as much money as possible.
5. Attend local government money and FORCE them to stop accepting matching Federal Funds for projects they can't afford.
6. Call your Senators and Representatives EVERY time you are mad about something. Tell them we don't need them if they let OBAMA run the country.
7. Tell all your friends and relatives to do the same.
8. Subscribe to power organizations like NRA, HERITAGE FOUNDATION, and TEA PARTY PATRIOTS.
9. Vote Independent and Republican (where you can stomach the candidate). Vote with a HEAVY BIAS against Democrats and LIBERAL Democrats especially.
10. Contribute MONEY to defeat Reid, Pelosi, Schumer, Dodd, Frank, Waxman and their ilk in 2010 and beyond.
11. Learn about the Climate Change HOAX and GREEN SHOOTS HOAX. Challenge everyone to become informed. Google Milankovitch Cycle.
12. Avoid buying union made products, especially cars.
13. Pressure your state to FIRE employees BEFORE RAISING TAXES.
16. FIGHT EVERY TAX INCREASE, INCLUDING LOCAL “FEES”.
14. TELL CONGRESS TO bring pending bills home and WE will read them.
15. TELL CONGRESS TO BALANCE THE BUDGET BY FEDERAL FURLOUGHS. If it’s good enough for California, it’s good enough for the COUNTRY.
17. TELL CONGRESS to LIVE BY THE LAWS THEY CREATE FOR US!
Ron Victor | 7.30.09 @ 11:37PM
Great column. When the media brands the GOP as the party of no, it may just be what the doctor ordered. With the dems over reaching, no, may be the winning strategy, rather than trying to be democrat lite.... cooperscopy.blogspot.com
Ron Victor | 7.30.09 @ 11:40PM
go for it GOP
http://cooperscopy.blogspot.com/
Stan Redmond| 7.31.09 @ 12:47AM
Bob,
You're right about service sector jobs being where job growth will occure. And the service sector is the easiest to manipulate. You pump in billions in make-work projects for government service for low paying temp jobs Obama can still claim his stimulus created a million jobs (albeit temp low paying jobs). And the vast majority of people will believe it's actual recovery.
We both agree on manufacturing jobs being essential for America's prosperity. The problem is the government, both Dem and Rep, have made it so incredibly expensive and difficult to expand manufacturing businesses. I am a small time shop employing about 10 people. I could easily stop my overseas sourcing and employ 50 more people manufacturing my goods. The reason why I don't expand here is NOT my greed. It is because the business climate here is so unfriendly and expensive I can't stay in business if I don't ship my assembly jobs to other countries. The quickest way for America to grow her economy is to eliminate the government regulations that make America an expensive place in which to manufacture products. I LOVE my outpost in Bangalore India. I have a pool of qualified people working for my company at fair wages for India. I pay a fair wage and fair taxes. I don't have to worry about union thugs or cap-and-tax schemes taking my profits. YES, I am greedy but all my profits have been put to expanding my business and hiring more people. NOE OF THIS IS POSSIBLE in the USofA under our current hostile business climate. EACH of my Indian employees is covered by my health and safety plan.
If Obama wants to grow the economy he must, lower taxes, eliminate frivolous regulations, and make America a place where it is profitable to manufacture products. I would LOVE to keep my business 100% American made. But doing so exposes me to union thugocracy, massive regulations, and unaffordable taxes.
Obama and the dems will be the death of American manufacturing if they don't change their ways.
Pingback| 7.31.09 @ 2:50AM
The Republican Recovery — W. James Antle, III | The Kansas Progress links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Evangelical| 7.31.09 @ 5:06AM
Does anyone else think the dems are int their death throws. In sixty years They've gone from a permanent majority called the American consensus to a hated socialist pile that exists just because Americans are too timid to decide that the nowx 40 year consensus should be the Republicans. When that happpens the libtards are done.
Michael G. Gallagher| 7.31.09 @ 6:04AM
I don't care about gay marriage.
I think global warming is real.
I love alternative energy.
I don't like abortion, but I'm not going to hunt a woman who has had one.
However, I don't like Obambi and his enormous deficts, which leaves us dangerously vulnerable to China. I don't like his ideas about health care. I don't like the idea of card check. I also think 'engaging' foreign enemies is usually worse than useless. I do like n-power. I don't like Government Motors. I am not a creationist, because I think God can organize the Universe any damn way he likes
But to Republican purists my anti-Obambi feelings mean nothing because I don't follow the paleo-con party line. But without people like me, the GOP will never take back the WH in 2012. Raise a bigger tent or die.
Michael G. Gallagher, Ph.D.
Michael Tomlinson| 7.31.09 @ 8:43AM
AMEN EAC!
Gone Gulchin'| 7.31.09 @ 12:39PM
"The lag time between being technically out of recessions (which is now) [...]
Well, Rosencrans, I think it's time to learn something about economics. Recession is defined in terms of GDP growth."
We've had GDP growth? Really? You're smoking green shoots if you believe that.
This crash is just getting started. Once again, the economic interventionists in Washington are turning a recession into a Great Depression.
GDP: Uuuuggghhhh
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1276-GDP-Uuuuggghhhh.html
"1% isn't so bad - but look at the revision - to negative 6.4%. So much for "final" on the previous release eh?
[...]
Three months of in-your-face falsehoods by the mainstream media have just been destroyed in seconds with one data release..."
More on GDP Revisions…
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/more-on-gdp-revisions.html
Unemployment Report FAR Weaker Than Claimed
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1272-Unemployment-Report-FAR-Weaker-Than-Claimed.html
The Idiocy Of The Media, Fed And Government
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1273-The-Idiocy-Of-The-Media,-Fed-And-Government.html
Bernanke Terrified Over Commercial Real Estate, Seeks Still More Power Over Consumers
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/bernanke-terrified-over-commercial-real.html
I look forward to the day when both corrupt, fascist, perpetual war parties go the way of the Whigs, because together they brought this republic to its knees.
Dr. Marc Faber:
“Nothing has been cleared - it has gotten worse and worse and worse and worse. There is this entanglement between Wall Street and corrupt politicians and the Treasury and Federal Reserve… The doors are open between the three and Goldman Sachs…
This is not the final crisis. The final crisis is the one where the whole system will collapse and the whole system will be cleaned of corrupt politicians and incompetent policy makers!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_5ViZH37ok
At long last!
The 545 People Responsible For All Of U.S. Woes
http://www.apfn.org/APFN/woes.htm
JimBeam| 7.31.09 @ 6:30PM
"Does anyone else think the dems are int their death throws. In sixty years They've gone from a permanent majority called the American consensus to a hated socialist pile that exists just because Americans are too timid to decide that the nowx 40 year consensus should be the Republicans. When that happpens the libtards are done."
The Republicans are digging their own grave even faster, mainly by pandering to the ignorant, the superstitious, the bigoted, and those who are so blinded by ideology that they ignore the plain facts in front of them.
But yes, the Democratic Party is in trouble and has been for years. The Liberals are running the moderates out and the moderates are none too happy about it. And the American people do not want what the liberals are going to give them. When a sane alternative to the Republican Party emerges, the Blue Dogs will join it and they will become the majority for the next forty years.
Jim O'Brien| 7.31.09 @ 6:31PM
Forget about the GOP. Join the Libertarian Party.
Pingback| 8.1.09 @ 11:04AM
Download Broke Down Bitches from Rapidshare at RapidPorn XXX links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Jews Hijack Republicans| 8.1.09 @ 2:04PM
Jeschichte XVIII, 32)
The Jews revolted in Russia in 1917 and established bolshevism under the leadership of Trotsky, Sinojeff and other Jews, a total of 35 million Christians were shot, slayed, tortured, and starved to death. In Hungary, under the leadership of the Bolshevik Jew Bela Kuhn, a horrible massacre was prepared in which tens of thousands of Christians were murdered.
"'The Jewish Establishment": 'In the early 1930s, Walter Duranty of the New York Times was in Moscow, covering Joe Stalin the way Joe Stalin wanted to be covered. To maintain favor and access, he expressly denied that there was famine in Ukraine even while millions of Ukrainian Christians were being starved into submission. For his work Duranty won the Pulitzer Prize for journalism. To this day, the Times remains the most magisterial and respectable of American newspapers. How imagine that a major newspaper had had a correspondent in Berlin during roughly the same period who hobnobbed with Hitler, portrayed him in a flattering light, and denied that Jews were being mistreated, thereby not only concealing, but materially assisting the regime's persecution. Would that paper's respectability have been unimpaired several decades later? There you have an epitome of what is lamely called 'media bias.' The Western supporters of Stalin haven't just been excused; they have received the halo of victim hood for the campaign, in what liberals call 'the McCarthy era,' to get them out of the government, the education system, and respectable society itself. Not only persecution of Jews but any critical mention of Jewish power in the media and politics is roundly condemned as 'anti-Semitism.' But there isn't even a term of opprobrium for participation in the mass murders of Christians. Liberals still don't censure the Communist attempt to extirpate Christianity from Soviet Russia and its empire, and for good reason, liberals themselves, particularly Jewish liberals, are still trying to uproot Christianity from America. It's permissible to discuss the power of every other group, from the Black Muslims to the Christian Right, but the much greater power of the Jewish establishment is off-limits. That, in fact, is the chief measure of its power: its ability to impose its own taboos while tearing down the taboos of others, you might almost say its prerogative of offending. You can read articles in Jewish-controlled publications from the Times to Commentary blaming Christianity for the Holocaust or accusing Pope Pius XII of indifference to it, but don't look for articles in any major publication that wants to stay in business examining the Jewish role in Communism and liberalism, however temperately." (The Jewish Establishment, Joseph Sobran, September 1995 issue)
In Jewish-Bolshevik Soviet Russia mass murders are even now (1997) are being carried out. The executioners are mostly Jewish men and women. In inventing new methods of torture the Jews are past masters. To let Christians die under torture give them the greatest pleasure. English reporters write that the Chinese executioners frequently would not carry out their tortures and executions; they shouldered and could not continue. Therefore, Jews and Jewesses took their place.
"The Jews were now free to indulge in their most fervent fantasies of mass murder of helpless victims. Christians were dragged from their beds, tortured and killed. Some were actually sliced to pieces, bit by bit, while others were branded with hot irons, their eyes poked out to induce unbearable pain. Others were placed in boxes with only their heads, hands and legs sticking out. Then hungry rats were placed in the boxes to gnaw upon their bodies. Some were nailed to the ceiling by their fingers or by their feet, and left hanging until they died of exhaustion. Others were chained to the floor and left hanging until they died of exhaustion.
"Others were chained to the floor and hot lead poured into their mouths. Many were tied to horses and dragged through the streets of the city, while Jewish mobs attacked them with rocks and kicked them to death. Christian mothers were taken to the public square and their babies snatched from their arms. A red Jewish terrorist would take the baby, hold it by the feet, head downward and demand that the Christian mother deny Christ. If she would not, he would toss the baby into the air, and another member of the mob would rush forward and catch it on the tip of his bayonet.
"Pregnant Christian women were chained to trees and their babies cut out of their bodies. There were many places of public execution in Russia during the days of the revolution, one of which was described by the American Rohrbach Commission: 'The whole cement floor of the execution hall of the Jewish Cheka of Kiev was flooded with blood; it formed a level of several inches. It was a horrible mixture of blood, brains and pieces of skull. All the walls were bespattered with blood. Pieces of brains and of scalps were sticking to them. A gutter of 25 centimeters wide by 25 centimeters deep and about 10 meters long was along its length full to the top with blood. Some bodies were disemboweled, others had limbs chopped off, some were literally hacked to pieces. Some had their eyes put out, the head, face and neck and trunk were covered with deep wounds. Further on, we found a corpse with a wedge driven into its chest. Some had no tongues. In a corner we discovered a quantity of dismembered arms and legs belonging to no bodies that we could locate.'" (Defender Magazine, October 1933)
The history of the Jews is written in the blood of Christians.
Wars murder & the Jews| 8.1.09 @ 2:41PM
Jewish Human Sacrifice
The ancient Khazar Jews along with other of that Near East era followed a common custom of human sacrifice. The practice was to burn a young person upon an altar called a Tophet. The Old Testament of the Bible mentions this practice and condemns it. Around the Tophet altar, drums would be beaten loudly to drown out the cries of the children being burned alive. In the days of Ancient Israel the Priests of Baal would blow trumpets to drown out their screams. The Carthaginians also were worshipers of Baal and sacrificed children on a massive scale. When faced with defeat in Syracuse in 310 B.C., they cast the sons of 500 nobles into a fiery pit, or Tophet, from a scaffold shaped in the likeness of the god Baal.
In Excavations at Gezer, the archeologist R.A.S. Macalister notes that the bodies of sacrificed young children are found in every strata of Jewish remains from the earliest times.
Photographs of the children's bodies are published in Macalister's book, although the book itself, like most works which attest to the criminal nature of the Jews, is now almost unobtainable. It is classified as a rare book, and most rare book dealers are Jews.
In the Bible, Isaiah 57:3-5 the prophet, talking of the Jews of his day says:
"But draw near hither, ye sons of the sorceress, the seed of the adulterer and the whore. Against whom do ye sport yourselves? against whom make ye a wide mouth, and draw out the tongue? are ye not children of transgression, a seed of falsehood, Enflaming yourselves with idols under every green tree, slaying the children in the valleys under the clefts of the rocks?"
By the phrase, "ye sons of the sorceress," Isaiah calls attention to the fact that Jewish ritual murder is a black magic rite. It is customary for the rabbi, as he drinks blood, to invoke the presence of Satan, who will then presumably carry out the wishes of the Jews. The drinkers of blood also swear eternal obedience to Satan during the blood rite.
Isaiah also calls attention to the fact that here the children are slain "under the cleft of the rocks." This refers to the Jewish ban against burying the slain gentile child, and to hiding the body in the rocks in the hopes that the gentiles will not discover their crime.
The Jewish Encyclopedia, Vol. VIII, page 653, published in 1904, says,
History of the Jews| 8.1.09 @ 3:28PM
At one time or another the Jews have been expelled from every country in Europe. And in almost every case it was over the charge of Ritual Murder. The most objective book on this subject available is "Jewish Ritual Murder" by Arnold Leese is available from The Truth At Last, P.O. Box 1211, Marietta, Georgia 30061, for $3.50 per copy
Pingback| 8.1.09 @ 6:35PM
Afternoon Info-Warz Roundup « The Western Experience links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Osamas Pajamas| 8.2.09 @ 1:58AM
Who let the bloodsucking Jew-haters in the door here? These propagandists are like flies at a picnic and want swatting.
Bruce | 8.2.09 @ 11:19AM
"No promising national leader has come forward with a stature approaching Barack Obama's. Quite the contrary, Republicans have recently watched the implosion of South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and the resignation of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. The party remains much more readily identifiable by what it is against rather than what it is for, and moderate figures like Colin Powell continue to lament its capture by "a very far right wing" base."
What the hell are you smoking, Antle? Obama's "stature." Colin Powell's a "moderate."
The only stature Zero has is the one in his mind and those of his unhinged followers/disciples. As for Powell - he's nothing more than an opportunist who changes his positions and beliefs according to the way the wind blows. It's all about HIM - not the party. A "moderate" supports and votes for a Marxist like Obama? Please.
I think I find myself in basic agreement with Turk. In my opinion - admittedly not shared by a majority - for the GOP to survive and prosper it needs to divest itself of the "social" conservatives who continue to drag the party into one issue - abortion. The majority of the country is anti-abortion and needs no lecturing to by those who will vote against a true anti-big government, pro-Constitution (original intent), lower taxes conservative solely because they disagree with his porition on abortion. Self-defeating nonsense! People want government OUT of their business and every day lives. They want a party who stands for the founders version of our most precious and envied around the world document - our Constitution. They want a government that keeps its dirty hands the hell out of our pockets and paychecks - the ones we WORK to EARN instead of "redistributing" it per Communist doctrine.
Live and let live. If you want to partner up with someone of the same sex, that is your business - not mine. If you want to murder an unborn child - that is the province of state government and law - not the federal government, nor mine. If you want to smoke, drink, or drug yourself into oblivion- that is your decision and business and not mine nor the governments. In fact - the majority of the imperial federal governments laws and edicts are in direct violation of the 10th Amendment to the Constitution no matter WHAT they assert (refer to the BATFE position on states rights vis-a-vis' gun control). Institute true tort reform and rid of us these blood sucking, bottom dwelling trial lawyers like John edwards and his ilk. Stay the hell out of our personal business. My life is mine to do with what I want - not the governments. If one is stupid enough to not wear a helmet while riding a motorcycle - how is that the province of government? Likewise wearing a seatbelt while driving?
If the GOP gave us a candidate like this they would win every election. Keep giving us useless RINO's like Snow, Graham, McCain, Hatch, and others too numerous to mention and they are doomed to die as a party.
Robert| 8.2.09 @ 12:11PM
Whats up with the antisemetic rant.
Trackback| 12.15.09 @ 4:14AM
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