By Ben Stein on 1.30.09 @ 6:07AM
Times were harder then -- except in one fundamental respect.
Recently, I met a young woman at The River shopping center in
Rancho Mirage. She was celebrating her 30th birthday. She was
also lamenting the fact that she was now 30 and telling me how
hard it was to be 30. Not so hard, I thought, for a man who is
64, but I patted her on her head and wished her well, and then I
started to think about the passage of time and chance and thought
about measuring what we've gained and what we've lost, to
paraphrase a great songwriter.
Thirty years ago. Early 1979. If you think we have it bad
economically now, with our bank crisis and our recession, think
about 1979. Yes, unemployment was about one and half percentage
points lower, but it was rising fast. We were well on our way to
the worst recession in postwar history, far worse than the one we
are in now, at least so far. But inflation -- that was the
killer. On the heels of the radical revolution in Iran and a huge
jump in oil prices, we had inflation in 1979 of over 13 percent.
The misery index -- the total of unemployment and inflation --
was about 19.5 percent, compared with about 7.5 per cent now.
Times were hard.
We got through it, and went on to record-shattering prosperity.
We got through the bleak days to "it's morning in America." There
is hope today, too.
Think the stock market is bad now? We thought it was bad in 1979.
It has risen since then -- even with the recent crash -- by
almost ten times. Not ten percent. Ten times. Think real estate
has dropped now? It has but it is still about four times what it
was in 1979 here in Southern California. Things look bleak now,
and they are, but they are a lot better than they were in 1979 in
many, many ways.
We will get through this. I wish I had bought more stock in 1979,
and more real estate, too. But here's what I really miss about
1979: both of my parents were alive. I could have spent as much
time as I wanted with them, I could have learned from them,
shared with them. Loved them. Let them love me. I desperately
wish it were 1979 again, not for Jimmy Carter and the bargain
stock market, but for missing my parents, whom are both long gone
now.
I don't know if it's a good time to buy stocks or real estate or
what the inflation rate will be next year. I do know you won't
have forever with the people you love. Be with them now. That's
your best thirty-year investment. You cannot lose.
topics:
Financial Crisis, Stagflation
