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Political Hay
It Won't Work
Successful political messages are simple, and by succeeding with the simple message of Change and Hope, Barack Obama has at least spared us the usual post-election complaints of Democrats that they lost because their message was too "nuanced."
Victory, however, creates a new problem for Democrats -- governing. This problem is especially tricky now because Democrats won't be able to blame their failures on Republican scapegoats.
Democrats will hold at least 256 House seats when the 111th Congress convenes, the largest Democratic majority since the 104th Congress ended in 1995. As liberal blogger Matthew Yglesias says, this renders House Republicans irrelevant in terms of shaping the legislative process.
The situation is only marginally better in the Senate where, with Sen. Norm Coleman apparently a recount survivor in Minnesota, Republicans will have 42 seats, allowing at least the theoretical threat of a filibuster. Given the number of moderates and mavericks in the Senate Republican caucus, however, that threat is likely to remain theoretical.
Such powerlessness will be discouraging to the GOP, but if there is a bright lining to the dark cloud of Republican irrelevancy, it is that it puts Obama and congressional Democrats on the spot. As of Jan. 20, Democrats are in charge of the legislative agenda and, for the first time since the early years of the Clinton administration, they won't be able to use Republican opposition as an all-purpose excuse for failure.
Failure is a foregone conclusion for the Democrats' economic agenda, and Republicans seeking a coherent conservative response can boil their message down to three words: It won't work.
Infrastructure "investments"? It won't work. Pump-priming "stimulus" payments? It won't work. More taxpayer-funded bailouts? It won't work. Go through the familiar liberal litany of economic prescriptions that Democrats are now suggesting, pick any proposal, and the message is the same: It won't work.
The unfortunate truth, as sober economists freely admit, is that there is no easy cure for the financial mess caused by the collapse of the housing bubble. Contrary to John McCain's now-infamous September declaration that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," the fact is, as Michelle Malkin said, the fundamentals suck.
Whatever policy Washington pursues, a quick and painless recovery is not going to happen, and the only real question is whether Democrats will delay recovery by implementing liberal policies that make a very bad situation even worse.
Predictably, Obama's choice as chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, has already claimed that the crisis justifies "big, bold things" -- and nationalizing America's health-care system is surely high on the list of "big, bold" plans Democrats have in mind. But whatever the arguments for a government health care takeover, such a move will do nothing to promote economic recovery. It won't work.
Obama himself is already seeking to lower expectations, telling Tom Brokaw the recession is "a big problem, and it's going to get worse." In the same interview, however, Obama argued for "a strong set of financial regulations" and neo-Keynesian "investments" in deficit-funded infrastructure projects that he called "down payments on the kind of long-term sustainable growth that we need." It won't work.
Some Republicans will reject that message as too negative, arguing that the GOP needs to offer its own "positive" policy alternatives. Bobby Jindal, for instance, has declared that Republicans "can't be the Party of No." Well, what's wrong with "no"? Practically powerless to stop the Democratic agenda, and even less able to enact their own agenda, why should Republicans entangle themselves in the details of specific alternatives, when they can reap a bounty of political capital by repeating the simple truth?
This is not to say that no Republican alternatives should be proposed. Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert's idea of a federal tax holiday is exactly the right kind of "libertarian populist" alternative, with an ideological appeal to limited-government conservatives and a common-sense appeal to independents. Democrats are sure to oppose it, but they will have a hard time explaining why Washington can't get by with a dime less of tax revenue while ordinary Americans everywhere are tightening their household budgets.
Ordinary Americans are already telling pollsters that they oppose a bailout of the Detroit automakers -- a bailout that Democrats desperately want as a sop to their union supporters. Most industry analysts, however, don't think Detroit can survive without major restructuring, and thus a bailout will merely dun taxpayers to waste billions in a futile delay of the inevitable bankruptcy. It won't work.
However, polls also show most voters are confident that Obama can fix the economy, which is actually bad news for Obama, since nothing he does can bring recovery before the 2010 mid-terms. And if he pursues the big-government interventions favored by liberal Democrats in Congress, the smart bet is that we won't see a recovery by 2012.
In the short term, Obama's charisma and a "honeymoon" with the Washington press corps will shield the new president from blame for the economic slump he inherited. Yet not even the media's leg-tingling infatuation will protect Obama forever.
Just as the failure of the Democratic economic agenda is a foregone conclusion, their political agenda -- expecting voters to wait patiently for the delivery of the promised Hope -- will meet the same nuance-free fate: It won't work.
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ddc| 12.8.08 @ 7:12AM
And we know that the above policies won't work because the current administration has tried them repeatedly.
Robert| 12.8.08 @ 8:00AM
"It won't work!" Since when has this admonition stopped a Liberal boondoggle government program? 'At least Republicans won't get the blame,' you say? You bet they will from day one until Obama is re-elected in '12. It will be the mantra upon which a successful re-election campaign will be built. "The Republican neocons got us into such a mess only a second Obama term can finish cleaning up their mess!"
The thrust of a successful Republican resurgence will have to be based upon another slogan. Considering the illiteracy of those who voted for the empty suit full of promises, for it to work, the message will need to be as vague and meaningless as those words which installed The Messiah in the White House.
blackelkspeaks| 12.8.08 @ 8:42AM
For the life of me, I can't imagine what lies ahead for this country. The problem Republicans have now, and have had for many years, is that they have become no better than the Democrats in being shills for the welfare state. All of the yeoman's work done by the great 20th Century economists, such as Hazlitt, Von Mises, Hayek, Friedman, Rothbard, etc., to explicate the terms and conditions of a properly-functioning free market system have now been jettisoned for Marxist and Keynseian approaches, which have an unbroken record of failure after numerous attempts to implement every sort of variation on the Marxist theme throughout the world. Yet, the Republicans have failed utterly to justify, let alone institute, free market policies when they were in the driver's seat. This country is in the grip of a world-wide madness that will lead to nothing but bad outcomes for many years.
Charles Jackson| 12.8.08 @ 9:08AM
Before declaring, "it won't work," Mr. McCain should give the Dems a chance to prove it. The last eight year haven't been exactly a textbook on how things work and our response to it was the guy who shares Mr.McCalin's last name - who happily for us all is back where he belongs.
J David| 12.8.08 @ 9:21AM
IT IS NOT SUPPOSED TO WORK!!
To enslave a people the crisis is always the best tool in the tool box. The commie-lib Dems are EXACTLY that, and use their failures, all accomplished with professed "best intentions", to continue to enslave the people since "uncle Joe" Stalin's bestest buddy FDR started the US toward communism with a Depression and WWII. Welcome to the United States Socialists Republic.
I Love America| 12.8.08 @ 9:35AM
Did you guys hear Obama smokes? I hate him! How dare he! I bet he is going to smoke in the White House, then accidentally set it on fire, rebuild it with taxpayers' money, only this time he'll call it the Black House! I hate him! He is so evil!!
Dustoff| 12.8.08 @ 10:28AM
Ahhh, Yes. The dem's wish to return to the FDR days again. Soup lines, the rich still remaind rich, middle class took in the shorts and the poor really got the shaft. But hey, they will vote dem's because the soup lines arn't that bad.
Hang on folks, but I'm sure well see a change in congress after two years of zero growth.
Michael Roush| 12.8.08 @ 11:02AM
Dear I Love America,
Does your mother know you are using the computer?
Anthony| 12.8.08 @ 11:30AM
Of course it won't work, socialism never does, but that's not going to stop Obama from going retro with his New Deal work programs. Republicans have a great opportunity to end this leftist, redistributionist, dogma, once and for all. Government cannot create economic wealth, only the private sector can, but Obama and the Dems are wedded to the Keysanian and radical enviornmental no growth insanity that will plunge our economy into a depression. Problem is, the Republican establishment is weak, scared, inaffective, and only interested in staying in office, as the minority. As Bush told the NRO in an interview, the conservative movement will rise again, stronger than ever, but with new leaders, leadership, and re-dedication to conservative principles. Cleaning up this mess will take decades; perhaps a mother of 5 with executive experience will clean house, once and for all.
Laurence| 12.8.08 @ 11:35AM
We need to divorce politics from economics so that politicians will feel less inclined to get involved when markets soften.
Governments have little ability to fix an economy but extensive ability to screw one up. The Federal Reserve has been arrogant enough to think that a cheap money policy can negate the fact that markets are based on both profit and lose and business is cyclical. For decades, whenever the economy slowed down, the Fed made money cheaper, encouraging debts over savings. This cheap money policy lead to a series of unfortunate investments, including the DotCom and housing bubbles.
Reining in debt will cause a recession but is the only way to insure long term growth.
Of course, instead, we will encourage more debt and cheaper money so that when the real downturn finally occurs, it will be even more devastating..
Michael Roush| 12.8.08 @ 11:51AM
Anthony,
Isn't it amazing how practically everyone from Wall Street bankers to auto industry CEOs to the guy on Main Street who just lost his job are looking to government as the solution, not the problem, in this crisis. And you are blathering on about Republicans having an opportunity to end "leftist, redistributionist dogma." When economists across the political spectrum are debating the size of the government stimulus package we need (not the need for government stimulus) you parrot the old, tired right wing bromides about Keynesian economic policy. While the current President has been AWOL throughout this entire crisis, you look to another ill-informed, inarticulate political hack as our potential savior. You, sir, are a perfect example of the type of person Republicans love to refer to as "the base." God help us.
Bob| 12.8.08 @ 12:06PM
Well, RSM, on the wrong side of the argument again? If you want to prove that this party is anti-intellectual and just plain dumb, then your "It won't work" approach is perfect. Republicans had the chance to prove the point with the Bush administration. Let me give you the news: "IT DIDN'T WORK!"
The reason this is a poor strategy is that no matter what Obama does, in a few years the economy with either get better or at least stabilize. Democrats will say that it took 8 years for the Republicans to ruin the economy and it will take a few more to fix the problems.
Jindal is absolutely right in his approach to turn Republicans from the party of "No", to the party of fiscal restraint, competence, and good policy. We ought to be presenting better ideas.
Of course, the risk is that the economy does get a bit better and then there is nothing you can say that will convince voters that Republicans have any ideas. If you add to that "the party of No", you are making the situation worse, not better.
Again, let me say this plainly -- THE ECONOMY WILL GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT 2-3 YEARS BECAUSE OF SIMPLY CYCLICAL REASONING. If you say "No", then you will just look stupid. In fact, that's how you look right now....
Gazinya| 12.8.08 @ 12:26PM
We could try believing in our Motto. That will work.
Dustoff| 12.8.08 @ 1:30PM
I say NO Bob.... if the gov takes over healthcare and raises taxes. we shall remain static. No growth at all. If Reid get's his way and we stop drilling and go green. Were doomed even more.
Wind farms just can't do it, know matter how it makes you feel.
Bob| 12.8.08 @ 2:27PM
Dustoff -- you can't make an argument based on feeling -- that's what RSM is doing and it is wrong. You also cannot put forth all or none propositions like "the gov takes over healthcare and raises taxes". Obama will accomplish a tax cut immediately for all people below $250K. Are you going to argue against that? Obama will approve the SCHIP program and place universal electronic medical records as part of the "infrastructure" spending. That will lower medical costs according to both liberal and conservative economists. You are buying into the AmSpec/Limbaugh stupidity of demonizing the other side. That's not intelligent and if the party objects to that they are idiots.
As for drilling, the current low price of oil can't make those drilling ventures profitable so it is a moot point on pulling for more drilling. That's just a fact. It's far more expensive to drill for oil here than in Saudi Arabia or most other places. As I understand it, our reserves are mostly heavy sour crude while what you need to gas up your car is light sweet crude.
The Obama crew is not as dumb as you make them out to be. They are choosing cabinet members that are more centrist and he will govern to the center. Why? That will ensure his place in history and put the Democrats in the majority for a generation. Right now he is angering the left far more than the right.
Dustoff, you need to look at facts. That's why the Republican's anti-intelligence bent that you see here in these blogs is the kiss of death.
J David| 12.8.08 @ 3:02PM
Looks like the Obamunist retards are a bit concerned yet, about the success of their Communist leader, as they are still traveling over from the NYTimes, HuffPo, and DKos to educate the dumb-ass hicks they claim are too stupid to learn anything. Wow! Now that is really bright!
Dustoff| 12.8.08 @ 3:50PM
BOB... Maybe you missed the story.
Obama has shut his mouth about tax cuts. Bud your the one living on feelings, NOT FACTS.
But keep it up sport.
PS... if you even think fuel will stay low in cost, you need to lay off the booze.
Thomas| 12.8.08 @ 4:02PM
I have to say that I do not think that current government bailouts, or those planned for the near future, will have much effect on reversing the current recession. The only new wrinkle in the current government recovery plans, over those of FDR, is channeling recovery money through existing businesses rather than through government projects. But, placing government in control of private sector businesses is going to cause long term problems for the economy.
By the way, this is neither a Democratic nor a
Republican problem. It is OUR problem. The government bears the lion's share of blame for causing the current financial crisis and now is going to lead the rest of us out of the quicksand that they created. Right. Just remember that WE are the economy and We are going to be the ones to suffer. I don't really have too much faith in the current elected officials in Washington.
Bob| 12.8.08 @ 4:10PM
Dustoff -- as far as I have heard, the tax cuts are still part of the stimulus plan:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28015345
Can you find any link that indicates he is not going to include them? His latest statements did not address any change in the policy above, they only defined additional components. You are still living on FEELINGS.
Regarding the cost of oil, much of it was, indeed, speculation. Yes, it will rise, but it needs to get over $100 per barrel before it makes economic sense to drill. Right now, it's not even close. The Saudi's have a breakeven of $55 (it only costs them $2 per barrel) so they will reduce supply until it gets to that level. Please use some analysis and not feelings to come to conclusions. If that is the level of analysis you use, it is not surprising that you would like know nothing Palin as your candidate...
Rick| 12.8.08 @ 5:05PM
Can it be?
The extent of Obama's success with the economy will depend on to what extent he uses supply side economics.
This is too good.
Paul Dreyfus| 12.8.08 @ 5:53PM
And you have better ideas, I assume? And, are you suggesting that our current administration's approach to health care and economic issues are working? And you are thinking that simply allowing more accumulation of wealth, more greed, and more support for those at the top end of the economic spectrum are going to help us somehow?
Debbieqd| 12.8.08 @ 6:17PM
"It won't work" is a cute quote. What do you think of "You'll be eating crow?" The problem with all the right wing-nuts is that they actually want President Obama and the country to fail. What a sad lot you are!
Lashire| 12.8.08 @ 7:06PM
Debbieqd,
Isn't that what the dems have wanted for the last 8 years?
Anthony| 12.8.08 @ 7:49PM
No, Mr. Roush, it's you that's the economic moron, not me. Ever since you discovered TAS, approximately a year ago, you have posted numerous idiotic, smarmy, suggestions and political dogmas, that many TAS readers have tried to disabuse you of, however, like most lockstep leftists, you are intractable. What you also know about basic human nature can fit into a thimble as well. Simply because CEO's and governors alike, have turned into begging lap dogs, to feed at the trough of government handouts, does not mean they see government as the proper remedy for the economic downturn. Instead, like most opportunists, when money is being passed out willy nilly, why not put your hand out as well? They, like you, care not a whit that the Democrats are causing a massive redistribution of OUR TAX dollars, in order to feed their failed Keynesian economic theory that wealth is created from the bottom up, by government. Unfortuately for you, if that theory worked, reprobates like you would actually be running businesses and creating jobs, however, reality I suspect, proves otherwise. And not all economists are debating just the size of the bailouts; many are disgusted with the very idea that morons like Chris Dodd and Barney Frank are now running the automotive industry, continuing the great job they did with Fannie and Freddie. Bush tried to reign in the Dems, but they would have none of it, and idiots like you would have screamed that poor people deserve homes too. Well, you got your utopian wish, and now the rotting corpse is killing our economy. If you really want out of this problem, unleash the private sector, get hack politicians out of the way, remove the world's 3rd highest corporate income tax rate, get politicians out of the mortgage business, get the radical enviornmentalists out of the energy business, expand domestic energy production, oil, clean coal, and nuclear, get rid of moronic cafe standards that are killing the auto industry. Allow for the creation of thousands of real important jobs, not Obama-Roosevelt, New old Deal make work jobs. But I'm talking to an idiot, why do I bother? Wait a year and see what the great Obama has in store for you and the rest of us. Problem is, you won't even notice. Make sure your bicycle's tires are properly inflated.
stickety| 12.8.08 @ 8:30PM
I live in Michigan. I've watched our INCOMPETENT governor Jennifer Granholm take a weak economy and literally destroy it by raising taxes and increasing governmental bureaucracy. In case you didn't notice, she was re-elected in a fricking landslide, and people in this worthless hellhole of a state STILL think she's doing a great job.
Talk to ANY Democrat in this state, and they'll tell you that the economy is bad because of John Engler (the highly successful governor who reformed welfare, reformed school funding, cut property taxes, cut the income tax, etc.) . They blamed GWB when Michigan's unemployment rate was 8% and the rest of the country was at 4.5%.
With media support and the unending stupidity of the American electorate, I'm sure the left can blame GWB and capitalism for at least a decade or so.
Michael Roush| 12.8.08 @ 10:28PM
Anthony,
You wrote,"What you also know about basic human nature can fit into a thimble as well." If you are a manifestation of basic human nature, I don't need anything so large as a thimble. You are simple minded man fixated on the fear that your tax dollars are being redistributed while willfully remaining ignorant about how your beloved Republicans' policies have already redistributed his money (and his childrens' and grandchildrens' too) to China and the Middle East. If the Obama administration doesn't get us out of this mess, make sure you are ready for the Depression.
kevin| 12.9.08 @ 3:51AM
i find it amazing the obamabots dont realize one thing--economies actually need both recessions and depressions. It is healthy for them and just like they get into them, they come out of them. FDR by trying to intervene worsened the depression. Obama will do the same. Its time we wake up and realize our presidents have little power over these things. Stop wanting a savior and look for a leader and we will all be better off
Daphne Kenward| 12.9.08 @ 11:49AM
Why don't you all ask George W Bush to stay on he is the most popular President in history. He did'nt need to be cleaver, all he needed to be was a drunken alcoholic, who went AWOL, when in actual fact was in a drug reahab.
It's no wonder America is in such a mess, Bush is so popular 25% of the people who thinks he is fantastic write on this page.
75% of the people in America, and 100% of the world thinks this guy is a JERK.
You people should know what his legacy should be. I leave you people to live the American Dream, and the fairy stories.
Oregonian| 12.9.08 @ 3:09PM
Anthony,
Great post! It should occur to Michael Roush that it's better to be the hammer than the nail, but don't count on it! Have you noticed that when you challenge liberal on their parroting of outmoded Keynsian economic dogma, they always respond that you are "simple minded"? It seems that they all believe that quoting articles from Salon or the NYTimes endows them with some form of superior intelligence over people who have come to a different conclusion. I'm not sure that it will take a full year for most of the Obamots to realize that the "Obama administration" is just the same Clinton administration and Congressional Democrat leaderships that gave us "affordable housing" for people who couldn't afford houses.
Here are a couple questions for the economic morons:
How are the auto companies going to sell the millions of new gasoline-powered cars on dealers' lots if they continue to demonize the gasoline engine and constrain America's development of her own oil resources?
How long do you think it will take for the Big Three to completely convert to electric cars; for the U.S to develop the electricity infrastructure to replace the service stations; and for the automakers to sell enough green cars to make a profit without government subsidies to automakers and automobile purchasers?
Have you ever seen an electric 18-wheeler? Have you ever seen a train engine with solar panels? Have you ever seen an airplane with a windmill? Without the ability to move freight at competitive rates, our economy grinds to a halt and there is no one to buy the electric cars but government employees!
Oh, I forgot! The "car czar" is gong to answer those questions shortly after January 20th!
Nick| 12.10.08 @ 2:37PM
stickety is right on point.
I live in the Detroit metro area. And I don't want these thinking disabled libs to have any say in who Republicans pick as their next presidential candidate.
This is why conservatives across the country have to do whatever they can to close the primary process to only Republicans. If your state is like Michigan where everybody can vote in the primary, you have to stop this. Remember "the one" will most likely run unopposed in 2012.
The slogan should be: "It won't work, but here's what will ....."
The house Republicans can do nothing to shape legislation. They should spend the next 2 years targeting every "blue dog" democrat seat they've lost in the last two elections.
In the senate Mr. McConnell has a bunch of Rinos to deal with:
Snow
Collins
Lugar
Specter
Martinez
Alexander
McCain
Grahamnesty (why don't you just shut up)
K.B. Hutchison
Grassley
and squishes:
Roberts
Bennett
Chambliss
The best we can hope for in the senate is to target democrats from red states on floor votes as well as in elections. Every time I think of how much the RSCC spent trying to save Linc Chaffee's seat while not helping senate candidates in the plains states my blood boils.
And hold the squishes, like Chambliss, feet to the fire.
El Gordo| 1.26.09 @ 7:33AM
Maybe these programs are not supposed to create a thriving economy? Maybe they are not supposed to grow the number of financially independent citizens (aka the middle class)?
These are people who are giddy with joy about the possibilities created by the current crisis. When they talk down the economy, do they sound depressed to you? No?
If the aim is to control the economy, destroy civic virtue, create captive constituencies and stay in power, it may very well work.
lloydrmc| 2.5.09 @ 4:15PM
"Obama will accomplish a tax cut immediately for all people below $250K. Are you going to argue against that? "
Oh, really? I'll believe it when I see it. For one thing, letting the Bush tax cuts lapse in 2010 somehow "doesn't count". Also, did you know that the Bush tax cuts applied to EVERY American who paid taxes? Again - EVERY American that paid taxes, paid less under Bush than they did under Clinton. The Obama "cuts" largely consist of credits (read: welfare) to people who PAY NO TAXES at all!
lloydrmc| 2.5.09 @ 4:22PM
"It's no wonder America is in such a mess, Bush is so popular 25% of the people who thinks he is fantastic write on this page'
Oh, really?
Since when does approval of what someone does equate with judgement of their character and/or motives? Has it occurred to you that some CONSERVATIVES didn't approve of what President Bush did (e.g. Medicare Part D)?
Approval ratings mean approximately nothing. Your beloved Harry Truman, who succeeded the orginal New Dealer FDR, had even lower approval ratings.
lloydrmc| 2.5.09 @ 4:24PM
"If the aim is to control the economy, destroy civic virtue, create captive constituencies and stay in power, it may very well work."
Precisely!