Democrats can be forgiven for panicking at reports that Team
Obama is trying to figure out how to win in November without
winning Florida. Or Ohio. Or even Pennsylvania.
Admittedly, it was an “alternative” scenario that Illinois Sen.
Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe discussed with
activists Friday at the Capitol City brew pub in Washington.
“You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe said, according
to the Associated Press. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one
state on November 4th.”
Plouffe’s remark may have been nothing more than an expression
of his candidate’s “organize everywhere” philosophy.
Yet if it was more than that — if his comments signaled a
willingness of the Obama campaign to cede major battleground states
to Arizona Sen. John McCain — Democrats could be in for their
third consecutive presidential disappointment this fall.
As a matter of mathematical calculation, winning the White House
without the major “swing” states is possible. As a matter of
practical politics, however, it’s not bloody likely.
A QUICK LOOK at the latest Rasmussen Electoral College poll shows why. As of Monday,
22 states with a combined 174 electoral votes were rated “safe” or
“likely” for the Republicans, while 14 states and the District of
Columbia with a combined 185 electoral votes were rated “safe” or
“likely” for the Democrats.
With 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory in November,
this means that — barring a surprising loss of either candidate in
one of his party’s “safe” or “likely” states — Obama must pick up
some combination of the remaining 14 “swing”states with at least 85
votes to win the White House.
McCain, starting from a lower base of “safe” and “likely”
electoral votes, would seem to have the tougher row to hoe in order
to reach the magic 270. However, Florida is the biggest prize of
the battleground states, and it’s ranked by Rasmussen as “leans
Republican.”
Polls show McCain well ahead in Florida, a state won by Sen.
Hillary Clinton in a primary that was disallowed by the Democratic
National Committee, which has stripped the state’s delegation of 50
percent of its vote at the party’s August convention in Denver.
Given how Democrats screamed about “disenfranchisement” during the
long 2000 Florida recount, Obama could have a tough time competing
in the Sunshine State this fall.
If Florida could be counted securely within McCain’s column,
that would put the Republican at 201 “safe” or “likely” Electoral
College votes, and put his Democratic opponent at a serious
disadvantage.
Then there’s Michigan, also stripped of half its Democratic
convention votes by the DNC. Though Michigan is rated by Rasmussen
as “leans Democrat,” some polls in May showed McCain with a
slight lead there.
If Obama has to fight McCain for the 17 electoral votes of a
traditional Democratic bastion like Michigan, that’s a significant
advantage for the Republican.
OBAMA LOOKS COMPETITIVE in three western states — Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico — won by President Bush in 2004. But
those states combined have only two more electoral votes than
Michigan alone.
Mounting a serious campaign in those states would be a
logistical problem for Obama, drawing the candidate away from the
key battlegrounds of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
If Florida proves to be out of reach for the Democrat, Ohio’s 20
electoral votes will become almost essential, as they were in 2004.
Most polls in recent months have shown McCain
leading in Ohio, although he’s far from a cinch.
Ohio, like neighboring Pennsylvania, was carried by Hillary in
the Democratic primaries, with exit polls showing weak support for
Obama among working-class voters. Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes
haven’t gone to a Republican since 1988, and the Real Clear
Politics average has Obama comfortably ahead there, in a
state ranked “leans Democrat” by Rasmussen.
As recently as April, however, some polls showed McCain leading
Obama in Pennsylvania, and it would seem far more likely a
Republican could win the Keystone State than for the Democrat to
win in some of the states named as possibilities last week by
Obama’s campaign manager.
Plouffe was certainly correct in identifying Virginia as a
battleground for 2008. After decades as a GOP bastion, Virginia has
recently trended toward Democrats, and one recent poll showed Obama leading 49-42 percent
in the Old Dominion.
Yet Bush beat Kerry 54-45 in Virginia four years ago, and the
McCain campaign is prepared to fight to keep the commonwealth in
the Republican column.
BEYOND VIRGINIA, HOWEVER, Team Obama’s ambitions for a
“fundamentally different” electoral map seem grandiose.
According to the Associated Press, Plouffe thinks Obama could be
competitive in Georgia, and said that the campaign would “keep an
eye on” Mississippi and Louisiana.
Bill Clinton twice won Louisiana, but no Democrat has
Mississippi since Jimmy Carter, and Clinton only carried it once,
in the fluke 1992 election. Real Clear Politics poll averages show
McCain with double-digit leads and above the 50-percent mark in all
three of those states.
While Obama certainly can expect to benefit from a
larger-than-normal turnout by black voters in the Deep South,
Democratic victories in such Republican strongholds are possible
only in the case of an unimaginable McCain meltdown this fall.
Unimaginable meltdowns can happen, but it’s far easier to
imagine a meltdown for the novice Obama and his relatively
inexperienced campaign team, which recently talked up plans to send
their candidate on a summer world tour, rather than campaigning in the
battleground states.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s supporters have coalesced into a
PUMA (“Party Unity, My Ass”) coalition, which on Monday sent an
angry letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean,
complaining that “the party’s nominee was selected…by means of a
series of inappropriate actions and inactions.”
Amid such troubling omens, enthusiastic talk of remaking the
Electoral College map — coming from Obama’s strategists in their
first try at running a national campaign — should scare the
Democrats witless.
Team Obama’s new map could very well lead Democrats down the
familiar well-trodden path — to defeat.
