Make no mistake about it, Donald Trump’s win in New Hampshire is actually a big victory for his now-sole challenger, Nikki Haley.
A few days ago, Trump was looking like he would run away with the Republican presidential nomination, especially after Ron DeSantis left the race and endorsed him. But instead, it looks like DeSantis’ supporters bolted not to Trump but to Haley.
Last week at this time, the RealClearPolitics polling average had Haley doing respectably well against Trump in New Hampshire, but not close enough to lay a glove on him. RCP’s final polling projections for New Hampshire predicted Trump defeating Haley by 20 percentage points, roughly 56 percent to 36 percent. But now that the votes are in, we’re seeing that Haley increased her number substantially, and Trump came down a point or two. She landed a gut punch, coming within 11 percentage points of Trump, and maybe single digits before all the votes are counted. She scored quite a blow yesterday. No one expected it to be that close. That includes Donald Trump.
Our Dan Flynn noted this morning that although Trump won, he “strangely adopted the caustic tone of the loser.” He spoke in “dark hues,” wielding a “brickbat” at Haley, implying that “something hidden in Nikki Haley’s background might elicit law enforcement interest.” He cursed and couldn’t resist griping about how Democrats stole the presidency from him because they hate America. “Losers paint in dark hues,” observed Flynn. “Trump won but spoke like he did not. People who act like losers do not ultimately win.” Dan noted that Haley received a much higher percentage of the vote than Trump did when he won in New Hampshire in 2016 and exceeded the portion of the vote won by Eugene McCarthy against LBJ in 1968 and Pat Buchanan against George H. W. Bush in 1992.
Donald Trump blew an opportunity to appear presidential last night, akin to how he lost the presidency in 2020 with his utterly stupid, uncontrollable behavior in the first presidential debate against Joe Biden. As Dan Flynn noted, Trump can be his own worst enemy.
Trump’s typical braggadocio and swagger last night belied what he was really feeling, namely: He did not expect Haley to do that well. He’s surprised, surely stunned.
“This race is far from over,” declared Nikki Haley last night. “There are dozens of states left to go.” She’s right about that. That’s not political hype.
It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings. Or, in the case of Nikki Haley, to borrow from Trump’s insults, ’til the Bird Brain sings. This morning, Bird Brain is chirping, smiling, and The Donald, despite talking smack on Tuesday night, is sweating.
The next big primary contest to watch is South Carolina, home state of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. A week ago, Trump was projected to deliver a knockout punch to Haley on her home turf. RCP currently has Trump way ahead of her in South Carolina by 30 percentage points (roughly 52 percent to 22 percent). I would still expect him to beat her there, but not by the margin we expected before.
Politics, like sports, is a game of momentum. In football, your team can jump out to a quick 14-point lead, with the home crowd roaring, but if the visiting team scores two quick touchdowns, things change quickly. In football, they call it a momentum swing. In politics, it can be the same thing.
Nikki Haley was considered all but dead a couple weeks ago, with pundits saying she badly needed something to energize her campaign. In New Hampshire, she got it.
Haley will now pick up supporters who had thought this contest was over and she wasn’t worth their time. She will open eyes not only among Republican voters nationwide but among the folks — the delegates, the guys in the smoke-filled rooms — selecting the next Republican nominee in Milwaukee in July. If Haley goes into the Republican National Convention decently close to Trump in delegate votes, the guys and gals in Milwaukee might well turn to her.
Personally, as I said in my previous column, I’m not playing favorites. As I said, I’m an American spectator here, sitting back watching. Honestly, in this column, I’m trying to call balls and strikes as I see them.
South Carolina will be crucial. If Donald Trump trounces Nikki Haley there, well, she’ll be on the ropes and maybe down for the count. On the other hand, if the momentum continues for her, Trump could be in trouble.
This game isn’t over, folks. Get out the popcorn.
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