Six weeks out from Election Day, the presidential race isn’t the only one that’s heating up. Republicans aren’t just campaigning to secure a second Trump term — they’re also hoping to win enough Senate seats to flip the upper chamber and secure a congressional majority.
Too Close to Call
After the much-hyped “red wave” failed to materialize in the 2022 midterms, Republicans need a win. With a third of Senate seats on the ballot this November, the GOP can count safe wins in Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.
Florida, too, will likely remain red, though Sen. Rick Scott is facing a close race against Democrat challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, whose campaign has received funding from the Democrat’s “$25 million push for voter outreach in Senate races.” Mucarsel-Powell, a one-term congresswoman who served in the House of Representatives from 2019 to 2021, lost in the 2020 election to Trump-endorsed Republican Carlos Giménez. Trump currently leads Harris in Florida polls by 4 points.
Republicans are looking to easily flip the West Virginia senate seat previously held by Sen. Joe Manchin. Recent polls show Gov. Jim Justice leading his Democrat opponent by more than 30 points.
On the other side of the ticket, Democrats are expected to win easily in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington. In Maine and Vermont, independent candidates who caucus with Democrats show significant leads over their respective Republican challengers.
The Senate majority comes down to a handful of more competitive races across the nation. Less than two months away from the election, Democrats are worried. The Atlantic explained:
Democrats are struggling to keep their 51-49 lead in the Senate … Democrats likely need to re-elect all of their vulnerable incumbents in order to control 50 seats and retain the majority (and win the White House, given that the vice president is the tiebreaker).
Incumbent Democrats Face Republican Challengers
In Montana, incumbent Senator Jon Tester has fallen behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in recent polls. Sheehy leads by a narrower margin than Trump, who is up by 14 to 20 points against Harris in the state. In previous elections, Tester has defeated Republican candidates by narrow margins: less than 4 points in 2018 and 2012, and less than 1 point in 2006. Yet, he maintained his seat in 2012 even though Mitt Romney comfortably won Montana’s popular vote.
Montana is one of the GOP’s best opportunities to flip a seat. Sen. Steve Daines, Montana’s junior senator, is the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and has been working to address the fundraising disparity between Republican and Democrat campaigns in battleground states. Though Democrats plan to spend $348 million on Senate races across the country compared to the $255 million spent by the GOP, Republicans are outspending Democrats in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Ever the battleground state, Ohio is home to one of the most prominent Senate races in the country. While Trump is enjoying a comfortable lead in the Buckeye State, Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno continues to trail incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown. This week, Republicans boosted spending in the state by more than $40 million, according to Axios.
In neighboring Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Dave McCormick is seeking to unseat Democrat incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. After losing a primary race against Mehmet Oz — who was then defeated by Sen. John Fetterman — McCormick is neck-in-neck with Casey. A poll by the Washington Post shows the two candidates even, while others show the sitting senator with a slight edge over McCormick.
Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is facing a close challenge from Republican candidate Eric Hovde. Baldwin hasn’t lost a single election in her 38-year political career, but Hovde is within striking distance. Polling shows the incumbent leading by 3 to 7 percentage points, though the race is too close to call.
In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen is leading Republican challenger Sam Brown by a handful of points. Support for Rosen mirrors Harris’ polling data in the state, with both candidates hovering around 45 to 50 percent support. But the polling gap between Trump, who is receiving 44 to 49 percent according to recent polls, and Brown, who hovers closer to 40 percent support, is cause for concern.
Republicans have been burned in Nevada before. Though Republicans had hoped that the promised “red wave’”would flip the seat in 2022, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Adam Laxalt by fewer than 8,000 votes
Trump could provide an additional boost to Brown when ballots are cast, but Rosen has been favored by nearly every major poll since the primary election.
Republicans Look to Win Open Seats
Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema’s decision not to run for reelection gave 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake an opportunity to run for the open senate seat. Facing off against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, Lake is currently trailing Gallego — but barely. Polls conducted in September show Gallego leading by 4, 6, or 8 points.
One of the leading ladies of the MAGA movement, Lake’s fate is closely tied to the outcome of Arizona’s presidential election. Current polls show Trump and Harris in a near tie, with the former president leading by 0.6 points.
Though former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan was recruited heavily by Republicans to run for the state’s open Senate seat, he is currently trailing Democrat candidate Angela Alsobrooks. As the popular Republican governor of an otherwise liberal state, Hogan’s ability to generate split-ticket voters was part of his appeal to Senate Republicans hoping to flip the seat.
To his credit, Hogan has succeeded on this count. While September polls by Emerson College and Morning Consult show Harris leading Trump by 28 or 32 points, respectively, the same polls show Alsobrooks leading Hogan by a much slimmer margin — only 6 or 7 points. For a chance at victory, Hogan needs to convert more moderate voters even as Maryland Democrats emphasize the national implications of the state’s Senate race.
Following the retirement of Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan seat is up for grabs this November, too. Republican Mike Rogers is facing off against Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who currently represents Michigan’s 7th District. Trump has endorsed Rogers, who is somewhat of an underdog in the race. Slotkin has led narrowly in polls throughout the election cycle. And, despite Trump’s 2016 victory in the state, Michigan has only elected one Republican senator since Jimmy Carter’s presidency — and he only lasted for one term.
If Republicans can only flip Manchin’s West Virginia seat, the Senate will be evenly split between parties, increasing the stakes of the presidential election. But if a Republican challenger can unseat one incumbent Democrat — or win another seat left open after a retirement — they’ll finally regain the congressional majority that eluded them in 2022.
Mary Frances Myler is a contributing editor at The American Spectator. She graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 2022.
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