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The Spectacle Blog
While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has secured the needed 60 votes to bring his health care bill to the Senate floor after Thanksgiving recess, there’s still a long road to go until President Obama can sign legislation into law.
The optimistic take for Democrats today is obviously that health care legislation has cleared another hurdle. And it must be said that however many ups and downs there have been throughout the process, at each stage Democrats have found a way to move the ball down field. They managed to get bills out of committees, cobble together enough votes to get the bill passed in the House, and today, to get the bill to the Senate floor. Comprehensive health care legislation has never come this close to passing at any time in American history. Thus, there’s good reason to believe that somehow the Democratic leadership, along with the White House, will be able to iron out their remaining differences, twist enough arms, and dole out enough goodies to get past the goal line.
With that said, there are plenty of ways for everything to completely fall apart for Democrats in the coming weeks and months. Though Reid was able to unite his caucus for tonight’s vote, at least two Senators — Joe Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln — have unequivocally said that they would block any bill that still included a government plan at the end of the upcoming amendment process. Sen. Mary Landrieu said that Reid wouldn’t have 60 votes unless Democrats agree to weaken the government plan so that it is triggered if private insurers don’t reach certain benchmarks. Sen. Ben Nelson has said he wants more restrictive abortion language in the bill. That doesn’t include other Democratic Senators whose votes could be in doubt depending on how the amendment process goes. It’s worth keeping in mind that once the bill reaches the floor, Reid will need 60 votes to make any changes. It’s really difficult to see how there could be 60 votes in the Senate to go as far as the House did to ensure that no taxpayer money covers abortions. And it’s also questionable whether there are 60 votes to remove (or at least weaken) the government plan.
Even if Reid figures out a way to get his caucus to fall into line and squeaks the bill through the Senate, the Senate bill would still have to be reconciled with the House version. And anything that gets negotiated in that conference (on abortion language, the government plan, etc.) could upset the delicate balance that enabled Speaker Nancy Pelosi to pass the House bill by a narrow 220 to 215 vote margin.
Another thing to keep in mind is that with the bill first going to the Senate floor on November 30, this process is now all but assured to drag into next year. And there’s a reason why the White House had been emphasizing the need to get health care done by the end of the year. The longer this drags on, the more pressure there will be on Democrats to do something about the unemployment crisis, the more President Obama’s popularity can decline, the more chance there is that unforseen circumstances can get in the way, and the closer they get to the 2010 elections.
So, on one hand, Democrats scored a big victory today, but on the other hand, if it was this difficult to keep their caucus together on a vote to bring the bill to the floor, it may not bode well for the much tougher votes ahead.
UPDATE: As expected, the motion passed with 60 votes along straight party lines, shortly after 8 p.m. The Republicans had 39 votes against it — George Voinovich was the only Senator who wasn’t present. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, he was back home observing the 30th anniversary of being elected mayor of Cleveland, with his old team.
View all comments (64) | Leave a comment
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Pingback| 11.21.09 @ 4:25PM
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DrTomVoter| 11.21.09 @ 6:42PM
This was scripted political theatre bordering on art. Does any self-respecting political junkie seriously believe that Reid scheduled the vote without knowing for virtual certainty that he had the votes? The “undecideds” took the stage in intervals, least to most vulnerable (Nelson, Landrieu, Lincoln) allowing the curtain to come down between acts long enough for the media to publicize their individual righteous agonizing about their decision.
Excuse me, I have to get some popcorn before the last act starts.
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Jim O'Brien| 11.21.09 @ 9:03PM
Forcing citizens to buy medical insurance under threat of fines and jail time is unconstitutional. Congress lacks that authority. How can Congress force me to buy a product that I don't want? If the government can do this, then it could do far more. For example, the government could decide that it is "essential" that all Americans take a certain drug, and impose fines, penalties, and jail time if we refuse to take the drug. How about dictating (limiting) family size also, to "save the planet"?
Similarly, how can the government force me to contribute toward the cost of providing abortions? Isn't this a matter of individual conscience? Isn't abortion-on-demand the same thing as wholesale "legalized" murder?
Aside from the above issues, expanding government spending by trillions of dollars to pay for this idiotic legislation, coupled with all the other spending and huge new taxes, is likely to Sink Our Economy into a Depression. The government right now is duplicating the very poor decisions made by Presidents Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt. The expansion of government programs and spending, combined with higher taxes, trade tariffs, and war against private enterprise, made the Great Depression last a decade. Unemployment actually increased from the early 1930's to the later 1930's. Obama and the Congressional Democrats are simply repeating all the mistakes made by FDR.
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Lazy Jack | 11.21.09 @ 9:52PM
Abraham Lincoln called it a lullaby during his campaign against Douglas. What he meant was the political promises contrived to make people feel comfortable enough that they would sleep through the important debates (then it was slavery) and allow the back room deals to be made. In this case the democrats are allowing the lullaby to lure them into voting for healthcare legislation that will indenture every man, woman and child in this country with little or no demonstrable return to the people.
The democrats have allowed themselves to be convinced that they must pass this legislation now or be caught on the wrong side of history. What they really fear is depth-charging a President and a white house chief of staff who painted them all into a corner on healthcare legislation. What they really are doing is CYA for Pennsylvania Avenue and pretending they are doing great things. Yes, pretending, as in fiction.
If the democrats really had any backbone, they would choose this moment to stand athwart this Marxist freight train and push back. Push back the role and obscene cost of government until it resembles something other than a serpent swallowing its own tail; push back until we discover anew the ideal that we, as individuals, can take care of ourselves; push back until everyone realizes that the pervasive influence of government has never been benign and that it’s influence is now parasitic.
What do you suppose are the chances that those democrats will chose to fight for the real needs of the nation (defined as a return to at least one or two of our founding principles), or embarrassing a President who ignores those needs? Thought so.
At a time when the socialists in Europe and China are saying we ought to reconsider the path to socialism, our Democrats, having ruled us for 80% of the time since 1932, are ready to double down all those bad bets and listen to the lullaby.
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Lazy Jack
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factis| 11.22.09 @ 5:15AM
Where do the Democrats think the money to pay for their new Health Care Bureau will come from? Taxes? What taxes? No jobs, no incentive to work, no taxes. Problem solved.
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J. Kelley| 11.22.09 @ 9:38AM
If we can change the Congress in 2010 we can roll this mess back. Because it does not go in to operation until 2014. Taxes begin right away. Our Senator Blance Lincoln is up for re election in 2010. If she is does not get beat with a primary contest, she is done in the general election. Myself and a number of folks are already working to defeat her. Lincoln has always walked the fine line of pretending to be Conservative, but with a wink and nod to the Left. She is out of favor with Labor over the Card Check. The old "Rock and a Hard Place" position.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.22.09 @ 11:45AM
J. Kelly,
We at TEAM AMERICA would like to help you nail down that defeat.
Drop us a comment at http://judgeroy.wordpress.com
Let's throw her out in the primary.
Do you guys have a good candidate yet to replace her?
ivehadit| 11.22.09 @ 12:05PM
My major concern is that the hot topics will be taken out of the bill so that is can be voted out of the senate into conference where the hot topics will be reinstated. After that point only 51 votes will be needed to pass it and Reid has those votes while letting his so-called "moderates" vote against it.
Am I wrong about this?
Pingback| 11.22.09 @ 12:06PM
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J. Kelley| 11.22.09 @ 1:54PM
Ken,(Old Texican) We have 7 Republican declared Canidatesfor the Primary. My choice would be State Senator Gilbert Baker. There are some rumors of a Democrate running against her in a Primary. That would not be good if she lost the Primary. Blanche Lincoln would be the easiest to beat in the General Election. 2010 may be our last chance to save our country. I'am so tired of elected folks saying one thing back Home, then doing what the Democrate Leadership tells to do.
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arlene | 11.23.09 @ 4:24AM
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JP| 11.23.09 @ 9:45AM
The problem with waiting for a post election Congress to roll back ObamaCare is the Senate Republicans. You can count on Senators, Gramm, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Chambliss, and Alexander to cut a deal with the Dems and save the most perniscious parts of the Bill. We've been through this all before. This little kibuki dance we do would be so boring if it wasn't so serious.
Bo Darville| 11.23.09 @ 10:42AM
The Democrats will pass something light and acceptable then change it behind the scenes into the House bill.
MF @ Gatwick Airport | 11.24.09 @ 8:53AM
Another thing to keep in mind is that with the bill first going to the Senate floor on November 30, this process is now all but assured to drag into next year. And there's a reason why the White House had been emphasizing the need to get health care done by the end of the year. The longer this drags on, the more pressure there will be on Democrats to do something about the unemployment crisis, the more President Obama's popularity can decline, the more chance there is that unforseen circumstances can get in the way, and the closer they get to the 2010 elections.
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Henry Massingale | 2.21.10 @ 4:58PM
2/21/2010
Please help the people understand why this force pay within failed insurance groups and there is a better way and this is how, let say that the AARP have 30 million members and the Humanna has 70 million members, so let say that they can earn, AARP $150 million dollars per month and turn over the balance into the United Health Care Forum being built for the people in our Government Health Care plan, In order that the sick can be covered. ..And $ 350 million for the Humana per month. free and clear money.....
now this tid bit of groups, the top ten insurance groups knee deep in suits,and failures
The 10 Largest Health Insurers
(by revenue)
AARP was not on the list for top ten, but did have a great many suits. So why are they in bed with Government Officials ?
1.UnitedHealth Group
2.WellPoint
3.CIGNA Corp.
4.Aetna
5.Anthem, Inc.
6.Humana
7.Health Net
8.PacifiCare Health Systems
9.Oxford Health Plans
10.WellChoice
Hope this helps,
Barnes@MostChoice
http://www.mostchoice.com/health-insuran…
so please tell the people why this dollar is more important than the needs.....
How many people feel that theses officials jump up and down to get your vote and then a nice little pat on the head and permission given to you to voice a opinion in this Health Care Issue ? Somehow that these 60 members of Government feel that " we have all the power " and us little people should be good little boys and girls and let daddy and mama do the job....
Well, over 9 years have past and theses Officials have sit back on their back sides and did nothing until the dog sneaked up and bit them. And now they attack President Obama and call him a terrorist, within the White House.
This Health Care Plan must have a job force up and running for theses issues to work. And this creation of Laws for this issue still is not the voice of the people.
We have built a forum that is the building block of 173 million people, We have placed all within one web site. And I have searched for all the good as well as the bad, and I have not found one insurance company that did not have a suit filed against them from 2003 to 2010
Henry Massingale
FASC Concepts in and for Pay It Forward
www.fascmovement.mysite.com on google
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promdresses2010 | 6.11.10 @ 7:07AM
Where do the Democrats think the money to pay for their new Health Care Bureau will come from?