The New York Daily News is
reporting that Rudy Giuliani will not run for governor of New
York, but instead will run for Senate in 2010 with ultimate
designs on running for President in 2012.
Let’s take those issues one at a time. Polls have shown Giuliani
performing better in a hypothetical matchup with Sen. Kirsten
Gillibrand than against the likely Democratic nominee for
governor, Andrew Cuomo. So in that sense, it isn’t surprising to
me that he may choose to run for Senate instead. However, let’s
keep in mind that over the course of his bid for the 2008
Republican nomination, Giuliani moved to the right in an attempt
to appease conservatives. While he remained pro-choice, for
instance, he still moved against federal funding for abortion (a
very hot topic right now), pledged to appoint conservative
judges, and said that overturning Roe v. Wade would be
okay. Such positions —as well as plenty of statements to
conservatives over the course of the campaign — would be very
difficult to overcome running for Senate in an overwhelmingly
Democratic state. While polls don’t reflect it now, Giuliani may
actually have a better shot running for governor, a position for
which he can run on executive competence, then running for Senate
— on which he will get hammered on how he would vote on national
issues.
As for running for president in 2012, that wouldn’t make any
sense to me. Even if he were to win the Senate seat, the battle
for the Republican nomination would begin the morning after.
After repositioning himself as a moderate once again to win in
New York, Giuliani would then have to instantly turn around again
to court the conservative base. And throughout 2011 —
theoretically his first year in office — his potential rivals
would be hunkering down in Iowa, New Hampshire and South
Carolina. If he joins them, he’ll recieve a heap of criticism
back home, and yet if he doesn’t, he’d have no realistic chance
of competing. And without much of a voting record to reassure
conservatives who rejected him in 2008, there’s no reason to
think he’d make the sale in 2012.
I’ll wait to see if there’s any official announcement from Rudy
on the Senate race, but I think he faces an uphill battle.
Pingback| 11.19.09 @ 3:17PM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : Senator Rudy? [spectato links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Tim| 11.19.09 @ 4:14PM
His previous campaign demonstrated for us that he is no strategic planner.
Dennis D| 11.19.09 @ 5:45PM
I think opposing Gillebrand is the perfect spot for Rudy. She is not extreme left enough to be a favorite of NY Liberals yet she has angered taken some positions that have angered some of her conservative supporters by he knee jerk move to the left upon appointment.
Scott Pandich| 11.19.09 @ 6:43PM
Being against federal funding for abortion isn't going to lose him any votes for senator, but I'd rather see him as governor.
Kevin| 11.20.09 @ 1:00AM
We need Rudy in the Senate. I'd love to see him ripping those libs a new one every day. The state of New York doesn't matter if the country is gone.
Pkane| 11.21.09 @ 3:45AM
there is absolutely no excuse when it comes to this NY governor's race. Chickening out just because he's afraid of competitive race? Where the hell is the old Rudy - the warrior who once upon a time fearlessly took on the ruthless Democratic establishment of 1980s NYC??? Now he's afraid to get down and dirty with Sfachime the Younger in a statewide race? Pathetic.
Excelsior| 11.23.09 @ 12:39AM
Not everyone who advises you has your best interests in mind. Run on the first term record, not the second. Think for yourself.
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