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Congressman Doug Hoffman?

By W. James Antle, III on 10.26.09 @ 12:00PM

A new poll released by the Club for Growth shows Doug Hoffman leading in NY-23, with Dede Scozzafava in third place:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

Important caveats: The sample size is small, the undecided vote is large, Hoffman's lead is well within the nearly 6 percent margin of error, and the Club for Growth has endorsed Hoffman. But Hoffman is clearly a lot further along than it once seemed likely. Robert Stacy McCain reports on the main site today.

View all comments (3) | Leave a comment

geoff bohne| 10.26.09 @ 12:53PM

Good for Doug! I gave to his campaign from clear over in California because we need more like him in Washington.

Win or lose, a message is being sent to the GOP machine to get their act together. It is time for clear contrasts to the current congress and administration.

SoCon| 10.26.09 @ 1:33PM

You didn't mention that both Scozzafava and Owens are backed by ACORN. I wonder how much of a factor ACORN will be in this election.

Truly heartening news about Hoffman, though; sure hope he wins.

Bob| 10.26.09 @ 4:51PM

Antle, you are right to use the caveat. The Basswood poll is an outlier -- and was an outlier when it was done a month ago. Basswood is part of Red Sea which creates advertising for Republican candidates. Two other polls done within the past two weeks from Research 2000 and Sienna show Owens at 33-35, Scozzafava at 29-30 and Hoffman at 23. I find it amusing how you ignore the less partisan polls with larger sample bases.