The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : Study: 83 Mln Would Lose Private Health Coverage Under House Dem Plan

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Study: 83 Mln Would Lose Private Health Coverage Under House Dem Plan

By Philip Klein on 7.20.09 @ 12:16PM

Democrats and President Obama have denied that the creation of a new government-run health care plan would be a Trojan Horse for single-payer health care, but a new report by the Lewin Group (comissioned by the Heritage Foundation) finds that the House Democrats' health care bill would shift more 83.4 million Americans from private health care coverage to the government plan. To put that in perspective, that would mean that nearly half (48.4 percent) would lose their private health coverage. In all, the government plan would have 103.4 million members once implemented, according to the Lewin analysis. President Obama has repeated the mantra that anybody who likes their health insurance plan can keep it, but in reality about 63 percent of covered Americans get their health care through their employers, and if employers decide to drop their current health plans in favor of the government plan, workers won't have any choice but to sign up.

Here's a Lewin chart titled, "Changes in Sources of Coverage under the American Affordable Health Choices Act Assuming Full Implementation in 2011 (millions)":

The reason for the dramatic shift is that the Lewin Group has anticipated that with government setting lower reimbursement rates for doctors, hospitals and other health care providers, the government plan will offer lower premiums than private plans. However, the flip side is that the Congressional Budget Office estimates providers will lose $361.9 billion in revenue over the next decade if the House bill is passed. That will mean lower quality of care, shortages in doctors and hospitals, and/or increased shifting of costs on to those with private health care. Should further cost-shifting occur, it will then in turn erode private health care coverage even more dramatically.

UPDATE: Over at Investor's Business Daily, David Hogberg explores the key question concerning whether the government plan will be operating on a level playing field: will a government-run plan be allowed to fail?

View all comments (9) | Leave a comment

Mike| 7.21.09 @ 1:09PM

And why would we believe this report based on speculation rather than fact; contracted by a conservative organization. Should I start believing all things from MSNBC as well?

Independant | 9.16.09 @ 6:54PM

This is a crock of shit.

"would shift more 83.4 million American.."

Shift? You mean 'review their options'?

If their coverage now sucks, or they feel that their in constant threat of being dropped from pre-existing conditions ranging from acne to gallstones, then they'll choose the Government plan. If they have fantastic coverage now; they stay. This 'shift' is called 'New choice'.

"Congressional Budget Office estimates providers will lose $361.9 billion in revenue over the next decade"

Perhaps 'private/personal' revenue which is being used right now to kill real health reform by paying off Lobbyists and Legislators instead of the 'high quality care' we're all so eager to employ. If they don't want to loose customers they'll lower premiums and change policy; that's true competition to better for the people. How is that a loss for America as a hole; Because the wealthy can't be as wealthy (at the cost of 22,000 uninsured deaths a year)?

mili8951| 5.10.10 @ 2:24AM

http://www.edhardycawholesale.com/

Pat Deaper| 7.31.10 @ 10:45AM

When ever we start something new there will be people on both sides of the fence with their own facts to back up their point of view. The thing that scares me is the fact that we are starting so big. If we are wrong even by a small amount the cost is going to be huge. Could we not just start a little bit smaller and test this out? Maybe state bye state? Or maybe by age? Why does it have to be all or nothing...

Richard| 8.28.10 @ 4:55AM

It is terrible that there is a price put on peoples life and health.

Brent S| 9.1.10 @ 12:37PM

Just wait.....now that this monstrosity has passed we will start to see the effects. Expect your premiums to dramatically increase in 2011. As a result, people will have no where to go but to the government option. I hope the repubs will retake Congress in November to get rid of this awful bill.

James Morgan - Puritan Financi| 9.13.10 @ 8:46PM

In all, the government plan would have 103.4 million members once implemented, according to the Lewin analysis. President Obama has repeated the mantra that anybody who likes their health insurance plan can keep it, but in reality about 63 percent of covered Americans get their health care through their employers, and if employers decide to drop their current health plans in favor of the government plan, workers won't have any choice but to sign up.