Ross Kaminsky makes the case that Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the Republican nomination have improved as a result of his performance in Monday’s night GOP Presidential Debate in New Hampshire.
I am not convinced this will come to pass. Why? Two words:
Since its inception in 1980, all Republican standard bearers have won the South Carolina primary. In 2008, Romney finished fourth in the S.C. primary trailing even Fred Thompson. Now it’s true that in a poll released earlier this month by Public Policy Policy Polling had Romney leading all Republican aspirants with 27% with Sarah Palin at distant second at 18%. Yet when one takes a closer look at the poll it is noted that things could change dramatically if favorite son Jim DeMint were to jump into the race. And let’s not forget the likes of Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. I also think that a Southerner like Herman Cain or a very conservative Northerner like Michele Bachmann are going to have far more resonance in South Carolina than Romney.
I suspect that a lot of that 27% for Romney is soft. These South Carolina Republicans might support Romney today but it doesn’t mean they will support him next month, never mind next year.