Reid Wilson has helpfully created a whip count on National Journal. It provides a convenient list of Democrats who most need public pressure–either to shore up their opposition to a government health care takeover, or to encourage them to shift from support to opposition.
A reminder of where we stand now: Health care legislation passed by a 220-215 margin on Nov. 7. Since then, Reps. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), Robert Wexler (D-FL) and Eric Massa (D-NY) have resigned. Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) passed away. Of that group, Abercrombie, Wexler and Murtha voted in favor. Massa voted against. Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-LA), who voted for the bill, has said he will vote against.
That means Pelosi has lost 4 votes, bringing her to 216. Because there are only 431 members of the House, thanks to the vacancies, Pelosi needs exactly that number to pass reform. Arcuri’s decision today brings the number of yes votes down to 215 — one below the number needed to pass.
Enter Stupak, who claims to have a dozen total votes against the bill if abortion language remains the same. For each member Stupak has convinced to switch their vote, Dems will need to convince another “no” voter to vote yes the second time around.