John Guardiano wonders if President Obama is poised to win re-election next year based on Larry Sabato’s latest analysis of the electoral map.
What is most interesting to me with regard to the electoral map are the states that Obama won in 2008 which were won by Bush in 2004 (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida). Demographic trends notwithstanding, I am not sure anyone can operate on the assumption that Obama will retain all of those states. One cannot also operate on the assumption that Obama will retain states that have voted Democratic in recent elections namely Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and especially Wisconsin.
Unseating an incumbent President is never an easy task especially when no primary challenger has come forward. But it won’t be an insurmountable one if the economy should regress or if another disaster (economic or otherwise) strikes and Obama isn’t equal to the task. Should that be the case it will only be a question of the American electorate feeling comfortable enough with the Republican candidate. Then again if Trump opts to run as an independent and splits the anti-Obama vote then all bets are off.
Still just viewing it from the perspective of an electoral map I think it comes down to those thirteen states.