Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave a speech on the “Power and Purpose of American Diplomacy in a New Era” at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies on Sept. 13, in which he declared that the post-Cold War era is over, and now we are experiencing “more than a test of the post-Cold War order.” Blinken’s statement is dramatically different from the previous U.S. official standpoint — the White House persistently denied a cold war with China — and could mark the beginning of yet another Cold War era.
Blinken’s statement came in the context of the absence of Xi Jinping from the G20 CEO Summit in India from Sept. 9 to 10, which left Biden disappointed. Right after that speech, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta on the weekend of Sept. 16 — yet another attempt by the Biden Administration to ease the tension between the two nations and pave the way for a Xi-Biden meeting at the APEC Summit in San Francisco in November. (READ MORE: Biden Makes a U-Turn on China’s Taiwan Invasion Risk)
These events demonstrate that the U.S. is anxious to maintain its relationship with China at a time when ties are strained and there is mutual suspicion between the rival powers. Given these circumstances, Blinken’s statement could be a stress test for China in an attempt to bring China back to the negotiating table and could also be more rhetoric than meaningful action before the Biden-Xi Summit.
Although the next step is unclear, it is certain that the U.S. faces greater challenges than ever in maintaining its global dominance. The expansion of BRIC represents a new China-led international organization formally beginning its parallel development with the post-Cold War international order. Despite divisions among the BRICS members, there is an emerging consensus that the international order is not working and that a new one is needed — so, they are forming an alternative world order and we are one step closer to Cold War 2.0.
As China’s challenge to the United States escalates, the U.S. is required to prepare for a new stage of the great power competition. There are several possible scenarios in the coming years: The U.S. and China could become locked in a new Cold War, with each side competing for influence and power around the world; they could continue to compete with each other on a variety of fronts; or they could also learn to coexist despite their differences. (READ MORE: Stumbling Into World War III)
The Biden administration has a few options going forward. A successful Ukrainian counterattack would be a major setback for Russia and a victory for the United States and its allies. If it’s not successful, it would weaken the U.S.-led international order and strengthen China’s position as a challenger. Putin’s trip to Beijing in October added variables to the war in Ukraine and U.S.-China relations. Taiwan’s 2024 election could have a significant impact on China-U.S. relations. If the Democratic Progressive Party wins, it is likely to increase tensions between the two countries. If the Nationalist Party wins, it is likely to decrease tensions.
The trajectory of China-U.S. relations will also depend on how China and the U.S. handle their domestic hurdles. Xi Jinping’s top priority right now is to consolidate his central power by balancing opposition factions inside the CCP and stabilizing the Chinese economy, as an economic crisis could lead to unrest and threaten the legitimacy of the CCP. Likewise, Biden faces a number of challenges, such as inflation, the border crisis, supply chain disruptions, and a potential economic recession. Both Xi and Biden need to promote stable relations for the benefit of their domestic governance.
U.S. Congressional divisions have been deepening ever since the ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House speaker. China may take advantage of this turmoil and intensify its pressure on Taiwan and disputed areas.
In the U.S. election year, the Biden administration will be particularly sensitive to popular opinion on China. On the one hand, the administration is more reluctant to take risks for fear of creating dangerous tensions with China. On the other hand, about 83 percent of American adults have negative views of China, so a tougher China policy could benefit Biden’s campaign for office. Biden will likely seek to set up guardrails so that the U.S. can continue to compete with China without destabilizing the relationship.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will attempt to maintain its influence worldwide. The U.S. will support Ukraine’s counterattack to weaken Russia, increase military aid to Taiwan, enhance its partnerships with China’s neighboring countries (especially Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, and Vietnam) to contain China within the first island chain, and impose more sanctions on North Korea at the expense of the new coalition between Russia, China, and North Korea. The escalation of power competition between China and the United States will be reflected in some regions.
In addition, Hamas initiated a war against Israel when the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were in the midst of negotiating a security pact and exploring ties with Israel and while China is expanding its influence in the Middle East. An article published by the CCP’s Phoenix News, “If You Touch My Taiwan Strait, I Will Touch Your Israel,” implies that the Hamas–Israel war is part of China’s global strategy. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made its stance clear, stating that the Palestinian issue lies at the core of the Middle East problem; the crux, according to him, is that justice has not been delivered to the Palestinian people. He even accused Israel instead of Hamas, saying that Israel’s actions in Gaza have gone beyond the scope of self-defense, and called for an end to the collective punishment of the people of Gaza. It’s clear that the competition between the two nations is intensifying in the region.
Although Biden did not accuse China of any involvement or responsibility for the war in his address, China’s role in the Middle East has obviously created more difficulties in predicting the future of U.S.–China relations. The possible Biden–Xi summit could be a benchmark that indicates the development trend of U.S.–China relations. (READ MORE: Xi’s Counterfeit Confucian Dream)
If Xi meets Biden as planned at the APEC Summit this November, it is probable that these two leaders will reach an agreement aimed at improving communication and cooperation on some issues, possibly involving some concessions from the Biden administration. Conversely, if Xi does not attend or meet with Biden, it might suggest that China is not inclined towards dialogue or collaboration with the United States, instead opting to pursue its interests and agenda unilaterally. However, this would not necessarily imply an immediate initiation of a Cold War or hot war between the two countries at this juncture.
