John Avlon is once again writing that “extreme right-wing” candidates are faring poorly and centrist Republicans, as he defines them, are excelling. Let’s stipulate that some conservatives are bad candidates and some moderates are good fits for the electorate. Overall, I think it takes a pretty selective view of this election cycle to make the argument that conservatives are dragging the Republican Party down to defeat.

Sharron Angle is struggling as much because she’s running against the sitting Senate Majority Leader as for any of her own flaws. Carl Paladino is a fairly terrible candidate, but the more moderate Republican who actually bothered to run was also poised for electoral disaster, even though the GOP isn’t getting completely blown out in down-ballot races. Finally, I’d be willing to make this prediction: every Tea Party-backed Senate candidate who made to the November ballot will win except for Christine O’Donnell. And even she will break 40 percent of the vote.