According to the latest Gallup poll, I don’t need to worry about frontrunner failure because there is no real frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Nobody is getting more than 18 percent of the vote, Mike Huckabee is actually the guy with the plurality, and when the margin of error is factored in it is actually a three-way tie for the lead. This is probably the best shot somebody polling at 3-5 percent even this far out has at winning the GOP nomination since George Bush went from being an asterik candidate to the second-place finisher behind Ronald Reagan in 1980.
That being said, I think you can still call Romney the prohibitive frontrunner because he is already clearly running and it is not certain that either Huckabee or Sarah Palin will get into the race. Without Huckabee or Palin, Romney looks a lot more like a traditional frontrunner. And he already looks a lot to me like John McCain last time around. (Though if we go by popular vote, Huckabee was the second-place finisher last time and should win this time because it’s his turn.)
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