There are a fair number of pro-lifers who cannot, as a matter of conscience, vote for a pro-choice candidate. Whether they are numerous enough to swing an election, I don’t know. But there will be a far bigger opening for a conservative third party with Giuliani as the nominee than there has been in decades. All it would take is 1 to 3 million votes.
That said, you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Just as Christian conservatives lack a candidate in the Republican primaries, there is no logical head for their third party. Ron Paul and Alan Keyes are running as Republicans. Roy Moore is a possibility, but he has declined politically since losing the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley in Alabama. The Constitution Party’s best showing was with Howard Phillips in 1996, and even then they drew less than 200,000 votes. When Phillips stopped running in 2004, the CP had to turn to Michael Peroutka, a no-name-recognition candidate who wasn’t able to gain any traction from conservative dissastisfaction with George W. Bush.
If they are going to be stuck with a candidate whose name recognition is closer to Peroutka’s than Pat Buchanan’s, the conservative third party effort would have to have already started raising money to compete seriously. There is no indication that this has happened at a level that will impact the presidential race. Given that reality, my guess is that James Dobson himself would have to run to pose a serious threat to a Giuliani-ized GOP.
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