Over at NRO, David French says things aren’t so bad where it concerns Republicans in the 2016 presidential race by making the “We’re not Democrats” argument.
I hope French will forgive me if I don’t feel reassured. Yes, it appears that Hillary Clinton has broken a litany of laws and very serious ones at that. But does anyone seriously think the Obama Justice Department is going to prosecute her? Is Bernie Sanders going to suddenly make an issue of her damn e-mails? Not a chance on both counts. Hillary is above the law and that is just fine with a lot of people in this country if it keeps Donald Trump out of the White House.
This isn’t to say that Hillary is generating the passion that Bernie is. Far from it. But while Democrats are worried there are a few hardcore Bernie supporters who won’t vote for Hillary, when push comes to shove most of them will pick Hillary any Republicans any day of the week and twice on Sunday where Trump is concerned. I strongly suspect that the 2016 presidential election could end up like the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial race between Edwin Edwards and David Duke. It may be unfair to compare Trump to Duke, but Trump’s incendiary language against Mexicans and Muslims makes him little different from Duke in the eyes of Democrats. The slogan from that election was “Vote for The Crook, It’s Important”. Even if Hillary isn’t indicted she may be appropriately cast as the Edwin Edwards of 2016.
Given what is at stake, I believe there will be a lot fewer Democrats who refuse to vote for Hillary than Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump. Even if most Republicans do come around and support Trump, it will not be enough to off-set the majority of Democrats and Independents who cannot stand the sight of Trump. If Nate Silver is right (and he invariably is when it comes to polling data), Trump is going to get walloped in November.
In which case, it isn’t the Democrats who need to be worried.