At least not according to political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who argues that the Democratic shift in the Interior West is overhyped. He points out that despite a general Republican tilt, Democratic candidates have enjoyed a number of electoral victories there over the last three decades. Focusing on the past two election cycles gives you misleading picture.

Generally true. Yet it does seem that the Democrats have tested a systematic political model, combining aspects of centrism and economic populism, that can frequently yield electoral victories in this region. This model has become more politically relevant in a country with a 50-50 divide. There’s a case to be made that Democratic victories are less candidate-driven out West than in 1984. But it will take another couple of election cycles to determine how durable this shift really is.