Iran is waging a proxy war against us in Iraq, and they don’t need nukes to do it. Regime change is the thing. I wrote in August that if the NIE is correct, we have time to seriously pursue regime change before a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities (a strike that could seriously complicate the relationship between the US and Iran’s dissident population). But El Baradei’s statement that he agrees with the dire assessment of Israeli intel is the latest in a long line of data points that suggest ample reason to fear that the NIE is way off.
So, Jed: What are the relative prospects for regime change after an American strike vs. after an Israeli strike? Do the military obstacles to an Israeli strike outweigh its relative geopolitical utility?