NPR is reporting a 1-point lead for the Republicans on the generic ballot for Congress. A Rasmussen poll has the GOP up 3. Congressional Quarterly still rates the Democratic majority as secure and points to three House seats where the Republicans are very vulnerable. (A fourth will no doubt be added if Michael Castle decides to retire or run for Senate in Delaware.) My only quibble with the CQ analysis is that it doesn’t take into consideration the number of seats held by Democrats in conservative districts who have never faced a tough election cycle. The national trends will be different enough in 2010 to make a number of Democrats who could win in 2006 and 2008 tough sells next year.
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