Dave Weigel talks to PA conservative activists and concludes that the answer is: probably not.

Conservatives are not at all happy about a Luksik run – it creates some hope for Specter, where a one-on-one race with Toomey meant his certain defeat. But Toomey, who won the endorsement of Dr. James Dobson in 2004, can outflank an activist who has never won an election and who left the Republican Party before Miley Cirus was born. The Luksik run could create space for Specter, or it could allow Toomey to portray himself as the pragmatic conservative in between a moderate and a fringe activist.

A precedent would be last year’s Republican primary in Maryland’s First Congressional District, when both Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin challenged Congressman Wayne Gilchrest from the right and Harris still beat Gilchrest. Meanwhile, Matt Lewis says to look at Specter’s card check vote as an indicator of whether he’s planning to switch parties.