Some of the early exit polls suggested that California’s Proposition 8 might lose narrowly (though I see CNN’s weighted exits are now more consistent with the actual results). With 95 percent of precincts reporting, it looks all but certain that it is going to pass despite a Democratic landslide in the state, the controversy over the initiative’s wording, and the fact that same-sex marriage was already in effect. All along, I suspected large numbers of black and Hispanic voters would turn out to vote for Barack Obama and against gay marriage. (Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians also voted more pro-life than whites.) With Arizona easily adopting a ballot initiative that was less broadly worded than the one that failed in 2006, every state that has gotten to vote on gay marriage has rejected it — even blue states and states that have voted for it more than once. The only states that have adoped this innovation are the ones where the people can’t vote or, in Massachusetts’ case, the politicians won’t let them.