Turnout Is Fair Play - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Turnout Is Fair Play
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Below Phil notes that some Republicans are holding out hope that the race, like objects in the rearview mirror, is actually closer than it appears. Even the public polling that assumes fairly traditional turnout tends to show a competitive Obama-McCain contest. It’s the polls predicting a large uptick in new, particularly young and black, voters — and an unprecedented Democratic party ID advantage — that have Obama up big. I’m skeptical that self-identified Democrats will outnumber Republicans by double digits and think some of these popular vote leads are inflated. But like Phil, I think people assuming traditional turnout are also mistaken.

Here’s just one small bit of anecdotal evidence. On a train to Baltimore last night, I sat near an elderly black gentleman. He asked me if I had voted yet. I told him I was voting on election day. He said he had already voted and stood in very long lines despite the early voting. He also informed me that he had never voted before. He didn’t ask me who I was voting for and I didn’t ask him who won his vote. I didn’t have to.

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