Quin, I agree with most of your analysis here but I’m not sure about the Obama vote. I suspect this is a lot like “comprehensive” immigration reform: either they will all jump together or the left-right coalition behind it will fly apart. Obama likes to vote for things that pass overwhelmingly and if Obama votes against the bailout I would think that’s a sign it is cooked. I think conservatives starting to peel off would also make it harder for the deal to pass.
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