Rich Lowry looks at a poll showing John McCain beating Barack Obama 51-36 in terms of his “ability to manage the Iraq war” and writes, “This shows that the success of the surge is probably helping McCain, which makes sense: 1) It vindicates his judgment; 2) the better conditions are, the more likely it is that we can keep drawing down responsibly, thus removing the sting of the ‘100 years in Iraq’ charge.” Maybe, especially on the second point. But McCain’s military service, foreign-policy experience, and perceived independence from Bush may all have something to do with it too. Remember: McCain beat Ron Paul among antiwar voters in the New Hampshire primary and otherwise did well among independents and Republicans who are against the war. I’m willing to guess that they weren’t, in the main, voting for him because of his position on the surge.