John McCain’s problems with the conservative base are no secret, Philip. You write: “Whatever Obama’s weaknesses as a candidate, the fundamentals still overwhelmingly favor him” — yes, but Obama’s weakness as a candidate is just the problem that euphoric Democrats (and discouraged Republicans) keep trying to overlook. Responding to David Weigel, I made this point:
[V]oters will not have the choice of voting for a generic Democratic president — or against a generic Republican. In 1996, I was among those who believed that any Republican could beat Bill Clinton. Unfortunately “any Republican” wasn’t on the ballot; Bob Dole was. He got 41%.
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