According to the Washington Times, a new Field poll shows a majority of Californians supporting gay marriage for the first time in any public poll, by a margin 51 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-four percent oppose the idea of a constitutional amendment reversing the state supreme court ruling on the issue, a number that drops to 51 percent when respondents are they are told they will get to vote on the amendment. This is consistent with what happened in Massachusetts, where a defense-of-marriage amendment surely would have passed before Goodridge but gay marriage actually gained in popular support afterward.
Yet that’s not the final word on the matter. A Los Angeles Times poll last week found that 54 percent of Californians supported the defense-of-marriage amendment and only 35 percent opposed it. Social conservative groups say this result is closest to their own internal polling.