Rassmussen has a helpful list of polls for this year’s Senate races. In most of the competitive races, the numbers don’t look good for the Republicans. Alaska has to be added to the list of competitive races, since Ted Stevens is below 50 percent and essentially even with Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich at 46 percent to 45 percent. Norm Coleman is below 50 percent and basically tied with Democrat Al Franken. Democrat Tom Udall has opened up a double-digit lead in New Mexico.
In Virginia, Mark Warner is predictably slaughtering Jim Gilmore. In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen still leads incumbent Republican John Sununu but by a smaller margin. Democrat Tim Johnson is way ahead in South Dakota, one of the few Republican pickup opportunities. Mitch McConnell is below 50 percent in Kentucky, one of the Democrats’ reach states, but still holds a 7-to-10 point lead over his potential Democratic opponents.
The only bright spots for the GOP are in Maine, where Susan Collins leads her Democratic opponent by double digits, Oregon, where Gordon Smith is ahead, and Colorado, where Bob Schaefer is competitive for an open Republican-held seat. But only Collins is above 50 percent, and Schaefer is trailing (though within the margin of error). On the one hand, Democrats will fall short of a filibuster-proof majority even if they run the table in all the states where they are now leading or even. On the other, if Republicans lose conservatives in Colorado and New Hampshire and fail to pick up Steve Pearce in New Mexico, keeping Collins or even Smith won’t do very much to help maintain filibusters.
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