I think in a McCain vs. Obama race, you can basically toss aside every bit of micro-analysis we might do between now and November, and realize that the election will boil down to something very simple. Either Obama will be viewed as too green and inexperienced, or McCain will be seen as too old and out of touch. Obviously, all of the issues–the economy, health care, Iraq, etc.–will reinforce these impressions one way or another, but it’s pretty clear that this is what the campaign will boil down to. I think in the current environment, youth and change beats stature and experience. But a lot can change in the next 9 months–a international crisis, for instance, could make voters place a premium on stature.
