Election 2010

Global Warming Meets Campaign Ad

By on 10.15.10 | 7:46PM

The Colorado gubernatorial race is a mess for Republicans, with former Congressman Tom Tancredo jumping in as a third party candidate against GOP nominee Dan Maes, with the expectation that the fracturing on the right will benefit the Democrat, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. But this ad produced by my friends at the Western Tradition Partnership, which attacks Hickenlooper's advocacy to spend heavily to fight global warming, might have some effect:

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What Was Her Name Again?

By on 10.15.10 | 8:46AM

Other than what's been relayed to us by Jeff Lord about his exchange with NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh about Christine O'Donnell's campaign, I don't know where the truth lies. Seems like Walsh makes some valid points, but as we all know, activity and support go beyond just money.

On the other hand, Charles Krauthammer's column this morning (his assessment of the overall campaign season, in which he doles out several "honors") seems telling:

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Reuters: It’s Over in the House

By on 10.13.10 | 1:37PM

The news service says it explicitly after today's poll release:

American voters unhappy at high unemployment are poised to oust President Barack Obama's Democrats from control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2 elections, a new Reuters-Ipsos poll found on Wednesday.

The national poll found that Americans by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent plan to vote for Republicans over Democratic candidates, an edge that is likely to allow Republicans to pick up dozens of seats in the House and make big gains in the U.S. Senate.

Ipsos pollster Cliff Young said the poll numbers show Republicans would win around 227 seats in the House to 208 for the Democrats.

Good thing for the Democrats it's not 2012:

In a punctuation mark to a tough political year for the Democrats, Obama's approval ratings dropped to 43 percent from 47 percent last month, with 53 percent disapproving of the way he is handling his job, according to the poll.

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Arizona’s Ruth McClung Taking Off Like a Rocket

By on 10.11.10 | 1:03AM

Confirming indications of a building Republican "wave" this fall, polls now show Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva in a dead-heat with his little-known challenger in Arizona's 7th District. Politico reports that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is now directing campaign cash to help Grijalva against insurgent GOP candidate Ruth McClung.

A big part of Grijalva's problem is that earlier this year, the incumbent Democrat joined those calling for a boycott of Arizona after the state passed a tough law aimed at curbing illegal immigration. Grijalva may have expected that stance would endear him with voters in the 7th District -- where about half of voters are Hispanic -- but it appears to have backfired disastrously. Polls show the Arizona law is popular, while Grijalva's support for a boycott was seen as harmful to the economy of a district suffering with high unemployment.

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Alan Grayson Targeted for Abortion Vote

By on 10.5.10 | 4:05PM

A Florida Democrat widely considered one of the most endangered incumbents in Congress is the target of a new radio advertisement from a leading national pro-life group.

"Congressman Alan Grayson voted for taxpayer-funded abortions in Nancy Pelosi's health-care bill," says the ad aimed at pro-life voters in Florida's 8th District, south of Orlando. "Alan Grayson doesn't represent Florida values. In Washington, he voted for the largest expansion of taxpayer-funded abortions ever."

An outspoken liberal, Grayson was called the "most loathsome member of Congress" by Reason magazine's Michael Moynihan after the Democrat aired a TV ad blatantly distorting a statement by Republican challenger Daniel Webster.

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Christine O’Donnell Ad: She’s Awfully Hard to Hate

By on 10.4.10 | 11:57PM

Ten weeks ago, after three days of shadowing Christine O'Donnell's campaign team at the Right Online conference in Las Vegas, I wrote this:

"[C]onservatives in Delaware have the benefit of backing an indisputably telegenic candidate. O'Donnell . . . has the kind of 100-watt smile that lights up a room."

That political candidates are judged nowadays in large part on how they look on TV is lamentable. Insofar as that factor influences the Delaware Senate race, however, it works to the Republican's advantage.

Much online debate was engendered Monday night by the debut of O'Donnell's first TV ad of the general-election campaign, which begins with the memorable line: "I'm not a witch."

The problem is that the people debating the effectiveness of the ad are political junkies, and typical independent voters -- "Ordinary Americans," as I've sometimes called them -- don't look at politics the way we junkies do.

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Democrat Jane Harman Profits From Firm Outsourcing California Jobs Overseas

By on 10.3.10 | 11:34PM

California Democrat Rep. Jane Harman's family business is laying off American workers - including engineering employees in California - and shifting jobs overseas.

A letter from the human resources director of one Harman company, obtained exclusively by The American Spectator, describes a "permanent" layoff of dozens of California workers that went into effect last week.

"I am writing to inform you that Harman Consumer, Inc. has decided to consolidate their global engineering operations located at 8500 Balboa Boulevard, Northridge, California 91329, to Shenzhen, China," Sandra Buchanan wrote in the letter dated July 20. "The separation is expected to be on September 30, 2010 and will affect forty-eight (48) employees. . . . The layoffs are expected to be permanent . . . ."

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Obamacare Vote Tipping the Scales?

By on 10.1.10 | 7:44AM

Two political scientists -- Steven Greene at North Carolina State University and Seth Masket at the University of Denver -- write in The News & Observer of Raleigh today about their analysis of the votes on Obamacare (both for and against) by Democrat Congressmen in swing districts (the poli sci guys call them "conservative" districts). Their methodology isn't clear to me, but here are their findings anyway:

Our results...further bolster the case that voting in favor of health care created lasting damage for Democratic members in conservative districts. With our controls, we found statistically significant evidence that Democratic supporters of health care reform are running just over 3 percentage points behind Democrats who opposed the bill.

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YouTube Bans Pelosi Opponent’s ‘Wicked Witch’ Video; Political Pressure Suspected

By on 9.29.10 | 12:30AM

A campaign video for Republican John Dennis, challenging House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in California's 8th District, has been removed from YouTube.com.

The ad, which depicted Pelosi as the Wicked Witch of the West, went "viral" after being linked by the Drudge Report, and had gotten more than 600,000 page views. The video was removed after complaints of copyright infringement from EMI Publishing, which holds rights to the musical "The Wizard of Oz."

One legal source familiar with the case said the copyright-infringement claim was "sub-frivolous," as the video was protected under the "fair use" doctrine.

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Scozzafava Redux: Doheny Wrecks GOP Chances in NY-23

By on 9.25.10 | 10:57AM

I reported here in May that New York Conservative Party chairman Mike Long had warned against Matt Doheny's campaign for the GOP congressional nomination in the upstate District 23.

Doheny rebuffed the Conservative Party in the 2009 special election and instead donated the maximum $2,400 to Dede Scozzafava on Oct. 10. Three weeks later -- the weekend before Election Day -- Scozzafava dropped out of the NY-23 race and endorsed Democrat Bill Owens, who edged Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman by fewer than 3,600 votes out of more than 150,000 ballots cast.

Which brings us to the situation for 2010, as I explained in May:

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