This is War Warning Part Five, in three sections.
Section 1: Tehran War Plan R.
1. The Tehran war plan has a code name that is unknown. For the purposes of this construction, it is Operation R.
2. The window for R remains September-October of 06, coterminous with Yom Kippur.
3. Tehran will tempt the US with provocations from now through the summer.
4. The major R provocation will resemble a surge of terror strikes from the witch's brew of terror gangs. The surge will be directed against sacred sites as well as strategic and civilian sites; the surge will include Israel, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and possibly Europe. Note that the Al Aqsa and Islamic Jihad gangs on the West Bank are working to show that they deserve to be part of the surge. Hamas is a junior partner. The tyro Zarqawi has proposed himself as a regional commander. Al Q is a full partner, though junior to HizbAllah.
5. R has two victory points. If the US does not respond to the surge, Tehran wins. If the US does respond, Tehran wins. The Tehran regime is supremely confident. Ayatollah Khamenei fuels the confidence, but the regime is not dependent upon one man. The regime is a counter-counter-revolution. The regime believes that it must strike now because the most young population is feral and disloyal.
6. Critical to understanding the Tehran regime's confidence in R is its radical Shiite theology. Ahmadinejad is a sincere messianic voice: he represents a monolithic, Mahdist, apocalyptic cadre in the IRGC leadership. The inspiration for these Mahdists is not Ayatollah Khamenei but rather is a shadowy ayatollah who was long in Germany before the revolution: what is most critical about this most radical and treasured ayatollah is that he has declared that it is legitimate to use nuclear weapons to advance the revolution.
7. For a thousand years, Shiites have been the practical, coherent, accomodating minority in Islam, forced by the persecution of the Sunni majority to find expedient solutions to threats. What is new and profound is that the present Tehran regime is committed to a confrontation with what it believes is satanic forces. The Tehran regime believes that democracy is the work of Satan. The Tehran regime believes that the United States is a demon that it calls World Arrogance. The Tehran regime believes (Ahmadinejad especially) that the chaos and ruin that will follow nuclear exchange will at the same time prepare the entry of the 12th (Invisible) Imam and the delivery of the faithful to paradise on Earth.
7a. The distinction made by some voluble commentators in the EU that there is a division between Ahmadinejad (and his IRGC allies) and the wiseman voice of the old crocodile Rafsinjani and the young crocodile Larijani is a false note. Rafsanjani has just comleted an embassy from Damascus to Kuwait City in which he informed the sheepish Gulf emirs that in the event of air strikes, anyone who aids the US will be burned. National Security Council adviser Larijani is a servant of the Council of Elders. In the event of crisis, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorses the necessity of nuclear launch: twice in the last two yars, Khamenei has provided his signature of the launch codes during war exercises.
8. Operatation R includes conventional and nuclear components. In the event of a US strike, Iran will respond with conventional and nuclear weapons. (The regime has nuclear warheads that it purchased from the Soviet stockpiles in the early 90s.) R will strike at the Arabian oilfields and Israel: a version of the war plan has been published in the Saudi Arabian press, with the caveat that it calls for suicide strikes on all Gulf states that support the US: the shahid detail is theological language and not strategic: the IRGC has sufficient Shahab missiles and other hardware to launch a decapitating strike on the critical oilfield nodes: also Plan R calls for a nuclear tipped strike in the event that the US strikes and assaults become untenable.) R calls for the destruction of at least one US carrier battle group. The Tehran regime believes it will survive the US strikes in deep and hard sites. The Tehran regime believes that the very disequilibrium of the contest -- the overwhelming US force compare to the IRGC force -- is demonstration of its imminent success. The Tehran regime believes that Allah will provide the fate that is required to defeat the US strikes.
9. R holds that the UN or other non combatant agents (EU, NATO) will intervene after the first round of strikes, and that the ceasefire will prevent the US from consolidating its advantages with combat ground units. Tehran believes the ceasefire through the winter months will turn into a truce that will leave Iran the regional hegemon and the US in retreat.
10. The Tehran regime believes that the humilation and disintegration of the US democracy is imminent. The Tehran regime believes that Satan will perish at the end of days. The Tehran regime believes in the Day of Judgement.
More soon: (Next: United Nations Security Council Plan)