The district hasn't been polled since June, so who knew what movement there's been since, but today the Civitas Institute (a conservative North Carolina think tank that does respected polling) announced a survey in which Democrat incumbent Rep. Bob "Who Are You?" Etheridge trails GOP challenger Renee Ellmers:
According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.
Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers' lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent....
Ellmers is able to build a lead due to strength among unaffiliated voters who are supporting her by a 52-19 margin. Etheridge is also losing 20 percent of his Democratic base vote to Ellmers.
Support for Etheridge tracks nearly in line with voter support for President Barack Obama in the district. An identical 41 percent of voters both approve of the job Obama is doing as President and say they are voting for Etheridge. Ninety-seven percent of voters who say they disapprove of the job Obama is doing are voting for Ellmers.
Charlie Cook and Real Clear Politics have the seat leaning Democrat. Maybe that ad promoting his health care vote wasn't such a good idea.