Democrats are trying to downplay the results of Tuesday’s special election to replace the late Bill Young in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. While the election results speak for themselves, a deeper analysis suggests that FL-13 portends a disastrous November for Democrats nationally.
Contrary to Democrats’ implications that their candidate should never have been considered the favorite, the district is not “heavily Republican” but rather slightly Republican-leaning in voter registration, at 34.6% Dem and 37.0% Republican. (On the other hand, news outlets like ABC make the district sound more Democrat than it is by implying that the 13th CD contains the entirety of Pinellas County.)
But these are not hard-core Republican base voters: Alex Sink won the district while losing the Florida governor’s race to Rick Scott in 2010. Barack Obama won the district in both 2008 and 2012.