So, let’s plunge right into it. What is the story on the elections?
First, to the extent that the elections are about the state of the economy, the Democrats should do surprisingly well. Here is why. The economy has revived very considerably from the Crash of 2008. That Crash was unequivocally caused by the policy failures of the Bush administration. The policies that saved us from a Great Depression were also created by the Bush administration, but who remembers those? And besides, the GOP is running from its own most successful economic gambits, the bank bailouts, a vital necessity when they happened. TARP and the saving of the big financial houses should be worn with pride by the GOP, but they are not.
The Obama administration’s immense deficits probably did help to stabilize the demand side of the economy. The piper — those damned deficits — will have to be paid, but that’s far in the future. The Democrats are happy to claim credit for stabilizing the economy when really most of it goes to Bush 43. If the GOP refuses to take credit even for what it did right, it has problems.