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Saturday, November 29, 2008
Obama's Money Myth
Posted by on 11.29.08 @ 3:17PM
A new study by the Campaign Finance Institute dispels the notion that small donors (i.e., under $200 total) were a dominant factor in Barack Obama's fundraising:
Although an unusually high percentage (49%) of Obama's funds came in discrete contributions of $200 or less (see Table 3), only 26% of his money through August 31 (and 24% of his funds through October 15, according to the most recent FEC reports) came from donors whose total contributions aggregated to $200 or less. Obama's 26% compares to 25% for George W. Bush in 2004, 20% for John Kerry in 2004, 21% for John McCain in 2008, 13% for Hillary Clinton in 2008, and 38% for Howard Dean in 2004.
In other words, the media-fueled image of Obama relying predominantly on small donors was actually the result of multiple contributions by people who might be described as "big donors on the installment plan." Nonetheless, the relative lack of grassroots support for John McCain's campaign is apparent in the CFI study, which finds that McCain got 41% of of his fundraising from those who gave less than $1,000 total, compared to 53% for Obama.
(Via LA Times and Instapundit.)
Shootout in Aisle 7
Posted by on 11.29.08 @ 8:40AM
In the old days of the Wild West, men met in the dusty streets, six-shooters at their sides. Now? They're killing each other at a California Toys R Us:
Authorities released few details about the mayhem that broke out at the Toys "R" Us store around 11:30 a.m. Friday, sending scared shoppers fleeing. . . .
The victims were identified as Alejandro Moreno, 39, of Desert Hot Springs, and Juan Meza, 28, of Cathedral City. No one else was hurt.
Witnesses Scott and Joan Barrick said they were checking out of the store when the brawl began between two women, each with a man. . . .
One woman suddenly started punching the other woman, who fought back as blood flowed from her nose, said Scott Barrick, 41. The man who was with the woman being punched pulled a gun halfway out of his pocket, then shoved it back in, he said. . . .
The other man pulled a gun and pointed it at the first man but forgot to cock it, Scott Barrick said. The first man tried to run but was blocked by the line of people, then ran back toward the store's electronics section as the other man fired his gun, he said.
The first man reached a dead-end in electronics, turned around and ran toward an exit, pulling his gun and firing back, Scott Barrick said.
(Cross-posted at The Other McCain.)
Friday, November 28, 2008
Myths of Moderation
Posted by on 11.28.08 @ 12:58PM
John Hawkins addresses the false arguments for a more "moderate" Republican Party:
After a GOP beating, there is always a debate between the people who want the party to become more principled and those who want to turn the GOP into a poll-driven pile of mush that they believe will be more appealing to centrists. . . .
One of the most surreal aspects of the post-2008 campaign is listening to moderates pretend that the last eight years never happened.
You say that the GOP can't win as a small government party. Well, we've already tried being a big government party for the last 8 years and it failed. You think running a moderate, pro-amnesty candidate who eschews social issues is the key to winning elections? Well, that's who we ran in 2008 and he received even less votes than George Bush did in 2004.
The big-government approach -- whether you call it "national greatness" or "compassionate conservatism" -- is not a fighting creed, because it does not offer a meaningful alternative to Democratic Party liberalism. Republicans were able to win elections in 2002 and 2004 on national-security issues, but ultimately it was failure to pursue a politically effective domestic agenda that undid Karl Rove's "permanent Republican majority."
More to the point, as I've previously noted, independent voters are not "centrist" or "moderate" in an ideological sense. Independents are actually "low-information" voters whose political ideas are an ill-informed hodge-podge that conforms to no ideological template. There is no coherent middle-of-the-road agenda to which they subscribe.The moderate argument that Republicans lose independents because of specific conservative policy stances -- on immigration, abortion, gay rights, etc. -- simply does not fit the reality of who these voters are. (And there is plenty of evidence that independents tend to be conservative on social issues.)
Low-information voters often can't name their representatives or senators, but they usually know who the president is and which party he belongs to, and if they don't like the president (Bush is at 26% approval), his party will pay the price. The Republican Party's electoral problems, then, are more simple than some would have us believe. The simplicity of the problem doesn't mean the solution will be easy, but "moderation" -- chasing a centrist will-o'-th'-wisp -- is unlikely to be part of the solution.
(Cross-posted at The Other McCain.)
Mumbai Massacre
Posted by on 11.28.08 @ 11:59AM
Among at least 145 victims of the Mumbai terrorist attacks were a Virginia man and his 13-year-old daughter. The terrorists killed five Jewish hostages at the Chabad House.
Zell Miller Backs Saxby Chambliss
Posted by on 11.28.08 @ 1:13AM
Sen. Saxby Chambliss received welcome support from Georgia's last Democratic senator, Zell "Give 'Em Hell" Miller. Miller said that Chambliss was the last man standing in the way of the Democrats' "far-left agenda," which may be true if enough ballots materialize to give Al Franken a Senate seat from Minnesota. Miller has mostly been backing Republicans recently, making Joe Lieberman look like Paul Wellstone by comparison, but "Zig Zag Zell" did endorse Max Cleland over Chambliss in 2002.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Be Thankful You Haven't Been Killed by Terrorists
Posted by on 11.27.08 @ 2:23PM
Over at TNR, a good round-up on the latest news out of Mumbai.
Phil was on Fox News earlier this afternoon arguing that Barack Obama needs to do more than issue a statement on this massive, coordinated attack; he needs to appear publicly and strongly condemn the attack. If handled wrong that could look a little presumptuous; as this press release from the Office of the President-Elect notes, "there is just one president at a time." But wouldn't it be nice if President Bush and President-Elect Obama made a joint appearance, just to emphasize that the US commitment to fighting terrorism is bipartisan and continuous?
Thanksgiving Thoughts
Posted by on 11.27.08 @ 1:35PM
In addition to an undefeated Crimson Tide, there are other things for which I am thankful:
It is helpful at times to reflect back on all that God has done for us. There is an old hymn that includes the lyric, "Hither by Thy grace I've come." And those words inspre me as I think back to that moment in August 1987 when I sat in my '84 Chevette in the parking lot of the Calhoun (Ga.) Times, praying that I would get the $275-a-week sports editor's job for which I was about to interview.
The day before, I'd been driving a forklift in a warehouse on Fulton Industrial Boulevard in Atlanta when the call came informing me of this opportunity. "Great," I said. "Just one question. . . . Where in the hell is Calhoun, Georgia?"
Well, it was there that I met and married my wife. Sometimes I recall the prayer I said in that parking lot and think, "Wow. I ought to pray more often."
Read the rest, and enjoy your turkey!
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Nice Column by K-Lo
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 3:25PM
Kathryn Lopez has a nice Thanksgiving column at NRO. Read it. Be thankful.
Re: Bear Necessities
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 3:07PM
Quin, no one who saw it can ever forget that magnificent hit by Barry Krauss that stopped Mike Guman on 4th-and-goal:
It was a head-on collision that nearly knocked Krauss unconscious. Seeing that video reminds me of one change made in the post-Bryant era. Crimson Tide players traditionally didn't have their names on their jerseys. Don't know who changed that policy, but I wish they'd change it back. Progress is the root of all evil.
UPDATE: Let me add video of my second-favorite play in Alabama history, "The Strip" by George Teague, from the 1993 Sugar Bowl vs. Miami:
There was a penalty on the play -- offsides against Alabama -- that nullified the turnover, but if Teague hadn't overtaken Lamar Thomas with that incredible effort and stripped the ball away, Miami would have declined the penalty and been set up for a touchdown. Teague had earlier returned an interception for a touchdown.
We Live the Life of Riley
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 1:42PM
This is very nice. It's a Thanksgiving message from one of the finest men I know in public life, and an absolutely superb governor, Bob Riley of Alabama. Enjoy.
Enough Already, Mr. Maverick
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 1:02PM
So John McCain again says he intends to run for re-election in two years. Is there anybody else out there who wishes he would just go away? He ran a campaign that was both utterly inept and in many ways dishonorable, and he's been in Congress since 1982, and he'll be 74 years old in 2010, and he holds bizarre grudges and is temperamentally difficult, to say the least. I know he was a Navy guy, not a soldier, but methinks he should take McArthur's advice for old soldiers and just.....fade....awa......
PLEASE!
Bear Necessities
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 12:24PM
Robert Stacey McCain's encomium to Alabama football this morning is wonderful stuff. The Bear was indeed a beloved figure, not just in Alabama but in New Orleans too, where I grew up. He always was particularly good to the Sugar Bowl -- taking the Crimson Tide there whenever there was any real choice in the matter, and also working to cement a longstanding tie-up between it and the SEC -- and there were years, or rather decades, when New Orleans desperately needed the prominence the Bear brought its way via his Sugar Bowl appearances. I particularly remember being in the Dome when Barry Krauss and Marty Lyons (I think it was those two) stopped Penn State on the goal line to preserve the Tide's national championship; I was looking down from the end zone, directly behind the spot where Krauss and Lyons met the Penn State runner. Awesome!
I particularly appreciated the Bear's loyalty to the Sugar Bowl because the game meant a great deal to my family: My grandfather was a backup on the Tulane team that played in the first-ever Sugar Bowl.
So, Roll Tide, indeed.And thanks to The Good McCain for his column.
Franken Loses on Absentee Ballots -- For Now
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 11:47AM
Minnesota's state Canvassing Board refused the Franken campaign's request to count rejected absentee ballots in the Senate race, but -- and this is key -- they did not rule on the merits of his claim. They only said that it was a matter to be decided by the courts. So in other words, no matter what the final recount numbers show next week, we'll still have a protracted legal fight over these absentee ballots, and that's not even taking into account the thousands of challenged ballots by both campaigns that still need to be ruled on by the Canvassing Board.
Why I Love Mike Huckabee
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 11:34AM
Hugh Hewitt had Mike Huckabee on his show yesterday. I missed it, but read the transcript and found this gem:
HH: Governor, here’s a contradiction in the book, and I read it very closely. On some places like Page 70, you denounce “yuppie greedheads”. Another place, you’re assaulting the management of Halliburton and Home Depot and Pfizer. And then in another place, you’re palling around at the ranch of Chuck Norris, whose done very well in life, and it’s a very funny chapter, by the way. I wish I’d been there when you were filming this commercial. But when is accumulated wealth okay, and when do you find it a reason to denounce someone like a yuppie greedhead? I mean, what’s the difference between a yuppie greedhead and Chuck Norris?
MH: A couple of fists. That’s the big difference.
HH: (laughing)
MH: Now look…
HH: Oh, you’re good, Governor.
Defining Libertarianism Down
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 10:57AM
Shorter Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch: Government regulation and spending may be out of control, but we're all libertarians now because we have Facebook, online dating, and diverse coffee options!
This means that when Obama-Daschle bring socialized medicine to America, I'll still get to order a chai latte and update my Facebook status to read: "We're screwed!"
Live From Minnesota
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 9:49AM
For those who are anxiously following the Minnesota senate race, today's hearing on whether to accept rejected absentee ballots is being held this morning, from 9:30-11:30 am CT, and you can watch the proceedings here.
Palin's Georgia Itinerary
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 9:46AM
Following up on yesterday's news that Sarah Palin will go to Georgia to campaign for Sen. Saxby Chambliss before Tuesday's runoff election, here is the governor's two-day itinerary:
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. -- Fundraiser at the W Hotel Midtown in Atlanta. Tickets are $1,000 per couple, or $5,000 for "hosts." The invitation notes that "The Run-off is a separate election cycle and contribution limits start over."
- Monday, 8:30 a.m. -- James Brown Arena in Augusta
- Monday, 11 a.m. -- MLK Jr. Arena in Savannah
- Monday, 1:30 p.m. -- Georgia Fairgrounds in Perry
- Monday 4 p.m. -- Gwinnett Arena in Duluth
Admission to Monday's events is first-come, first-serve, but attendees are urged to RSVP with the Chambliss campaign.
Today, meanwhile, the Chambliss campaign is hosting a "BBQ Lunch Victory Rally" with Gov. Sonny Perdue and former Gov. Zell Miller in Gainesville.
New Deputy SoS Candidate Steinberg Proposed League of Democracies-Type Org
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 8:53AM
One of the ideas that John McCain had during the campaign, which he spoke of intermittently but that never received much attention, was the concept of some sort of League of Democracies as an adjunct to the existing international system. As it turns out, James Steinberg, reportedly the man being tapped as Hillary Clinton's deputy at the Department of State, proposed something similar in a Los Angeles Times op-ed he co-authored in 2005.
Steinberg declared that, "It would be unfortunate if President Bush’s doctrine of preemption were a casualty of the Iraq war."
The problem, Steinberg argued, is not the concept of preemtive war itself, but of unilateralism:
When states fail to meet their responsibilities, the international community will need to step in. Diplomacy and economic pressure are frequently sufficient to do the job. But there will be times when limited military action will be the only effective way to obviate an imminent threat – before, say, a state produces enough fissile material to make nuclear weapons or before terrorists are fully able to hatch their plots. One problem with the Bush doctrine, then, is not that it is overly reliant on preventive force but that it too narrowly conceives of its use, primarily to deal with terrorism and to remove threatening regimes.
The Bush doctrine’s other problem is that it insists that individual states, or at least the United States, must have the right to decide when preventive force is justified, even though the threat affects the security of many. The decision to use force in these cases cannot be one state’s alone.
Of course, if preemtive action is deemed necessary to retard or eliminate a threat to America's national security, and other nations won't go along with such action, should such action be ruled out? In other words, does all possible U.S. military action need to meet John Kerry's infamous "global test"?
Steinberg goes on to write that the U.N. Security Council is undependable, and that while regional networks such as NATO are more reliable (see Kosovo as the model), global challenges often are beyond their scope. He then proposes:
Which leaves the alternative of creating a coalition of like-minded states. One such coalition could be composed of democracies, because democracies should have an interest in upholding the norm of state responsibility. Because these governments are elected, their collective decision to use force would carry more legitimacy than a decision of any one of them. And if it proved impossible to convince any or most of the coalition’s democratic peers that a state had failed to meet its responsibilities and that intervention was therefore justified, that outcome in and of itself should give pause about proceeding. Iraq was a case in point. Finally, the existence of an alternative decision-making body may prompt the Security Council or a regional organization to act sooner.
Obama Maintains Gates
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 8:53AM
In a nod toward bipartisanship, Obama has reportedly decided to keep Robert Gates on as Secretary of Defense, at least in the near term.
The NY Times also reports:
The developments came as Mr. Obama prepared to begin unveiling his national security team after the long Thanksgiving weekend. Besides formally announcing his nomination of Mrs. Clinton as secretary of state, Mr. Obama was expected to appoint Gen. James L. Jones, a retired Marine commandant and NATO supreme commander, as his national security adviser.
Other front-runners have emerged in recent days, including Adm. Dennis Blair, retired from the Navy, for director of national intelligence; Susan E. Rice, a former assistant secretary of state, for ambassador to the United Nations; James B. Steinberg, a former deputy national security adviser, for deputy secretary of state; and Thomas E. Donilon, a former chief of staff at the State Department, for deputy national security adviser.
Our First Blackberry President
Posted by on 11.26.08 @ 8:23AM
He's quit smoking, but can he quit texting?
Barack Obama wants his BlackBerry back - or at least some good way to communicate better with people outside the immediate circle of the president-elect. . . .
How is the president-elect getting along without that BlackBerry which the Secret Service wasn't happy about the boss carrying?
"This is a problem,'' Obama says in the interview airing Wednesday night, according to excerpts released by ABC. "You know, one of the things that I'm going to have to work through is how to break through the isolation and the bubble that exists around the president. And I'm in the process of negotiating with the Secret Service, with lawyers, with White House staff and....''
Does that mean he'll get his Berry back?
"Well, I'm, I'm negotiating to figure out how can I get information from outside of the ten or 12 people who surround my office in the White House,'' Obama said. "Because, one of the worst things I think that could happen to a president is losing touch with what people are going through day to day.''
With its mobile Web connection, the "Crackberry" -- that's how supposedly addictive the devices are -- has become ubiquitous among Washington operatives in the past few years. (Apple's pricier iPhone is not quite so popular.) Attend any event in Washington and you'll see people scrolling their e-mail or surfing the Web throughout the event. And if, perchance, the event occurs in the bowels of a hotel where there's no signal, then as soon they emerge from the event, the first thing they must do is check the device to make sure they haven't missed anything.
Because a Blackberry or cellphone signal could be tracked or intercepted, the Secret Service can't allow the Commander in Chief to carry one, and so add this to the sacrifices the office requires.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Palin to the Peach State
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 6:34PM
Can Sarah Palin save Saxby Chambliss?
Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin will make multiple campaign appearances on behalf of Sen. Saxby Chambliss next week in Georgia, serving as the political closer for the GOP senator who is battling to win a second term.
This is Palin's first campaign appearance on behalf of another Republican candidate since losing her bid to become the nation's first woman to serve as vice president.
Palin will attend a fundraiser on Sunday night, then appear at multiple campaign stops on Monday in an effort to rally the GOP base to turn out to vote for Chambliss. The incumbent Republican is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Jim Martin. A runoff is scheduled for next Tuesday, after neither candidate received the 50 percent plus one vote needed to win on Election Day. . . .
Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said that it made sense for Palin to help Chambliss. . . .
"She is going to bring a lot of energy and enthusiasm to this run-off," said Ayers, a close Palin confidante. "She is widely popular in Georgia, and I could not envision a stronger closer for Saxby in this election."
Chambliss made the mistake of voting for the $700 billion bailout, and faces a runoff because Libertarian Allen Buckley got 127,723 votes (3%) in the general election.
The Minnesota Circus
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 5:18PM
Earlier today, I spoke to several Norm Coleman campaign representatives to get their perspective on the ongoing recount. Here are some of the things they emphasized:
-- They believed the current margin was somewhere in the middle of the 160 to 211 vote range.
-- They were confident that Franken did not make the gains he should have in the highly Democratic and populated Hennepin, Ramsey, and St. Louis counties. They said they were basing this claim on the hard count, not on the fact that Coleman challenges were removing more votes from the Franken stack.
-- Tomorrow, they said they anticpate a "circus" as there is a hearing before the state Canvassing Board, which will rule on whether to count up to 6,400 rejected absentee ballots. They said they anticipate that the Board will rule that the ballots will not be counted, and that the Franken campaign will eventually pursue further legal action on this matter.
-- "I have never seen the intensity in terms of upsetting the apple cart than I have seen on the Franken side," said one representative. "They are pulling out all the stops."
-- There is a chance that the Democratic Senate could get involved, by either declaring the seat vacant, or having Coleman appointed on a provisional basis, one official posited.
The Star Tribune has more from the Franken camp, including their charges of missing ballots and contention that the real margin is only 84 votes.
Don't Hype the Clintonistas
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 12:20PM
Paul Mirengoff has a thoughtful post arguing that conservatives should be less relieved by the large presence of Clinton holdovers -- and perhaps Hillary Clinton herself -- in the incoming Obama administration. His case is threefold. First, he argues that Bill Clinton's moderation was largely a product of the Republican Congress and other outside political conditions. Second, even if Clinton was truly a moderate many of his staffers were not. Third, the differences between Hillary and Obama during the primaries may have been more opportunistic than ideological.
There's a certain amount of truth to all three points, particularly the first. Bill Clinton's administration was further to the left in 1993-95 than it was after the arrival of the Republican Congress. Clinton made a career for himself as a DLC Democrat in recognition of the more conservative political climate of Arkansas and also to compensate for his party's political weaknesses during the Reagan era. But it was only after the voters rebuked his turn to the left during his first term that Clinton embraced triangulation.
Nevertheless, the differences between the Clinton and Dean wings of the Democratic Party are not all window dressing or different reactions to existing political circumstances. Bill and Hillary have, since the 1990s, been more willing to use military force (even if not always when U.S. national security interests were most at stake). Rahm Emanuel is certainly more hawkish than your average liberal. And the relevant fact isn't whether partisan Democrats eventually became critical of an unpopular war initiated by a Republican president -- that part was inevitable -- but how long it took these Democrats to follow the rest of their party to that point.
The real question mark here isn't Hillary's foreign policy views. It's Barack Obama's, which may or may not turn out to be more hawkish than either his supporters or detractors suspect. If conservatives do end up liking his foreign policy better than they originally thought, those conservatives probably won't be the Obamacons.
Obama Praised Daschle's Federal Health Board Idea
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 10:52AM
Barack Obama said earlier this year that Tom Daschle's idea of creating a Federal Health Board (modeled after the Federal Reserve) to manage the nation's medical system showed "great promise."
"The American health care system is in crisis, and workable solutions have been blocked for years by deeply entrenched ideological divisions," Obama wrote in a blurb on the back of Daschle's book, Critical: What We Can Do About the Health-Care Crisis. "Sen. Daschle brings fresh thinking to this problem, and his Federal Reserve for Health concept holds great promise for bridging this intellectual chasm and, at long last, giving this nation the health care it deserves."
Now that Daschle is expected to shepard Obama's health care plan through Congress as Secretary of Health and Human Services this takes on an added importance.
Here's how Daschle described the idea in his book:
"Like the Federal Reserve, the Federal Health Board would be composed of highly independent experts insulated from politics. Congress and the White House would relinquish some of their health-policy decisions to it. For example, a shift to a more effective drug service would be accomplished without an act of Congress or the White House."
However benign Daschle tries to make the idea sound, just as, over time, the power of the Federal Reserve grew dramatically beyond its original intentions (ironically, the more it messed up, the more power it got) its easy to see the Federal Health Board morph into an all-powerful entity dictating every aspect of health policy over time, with limited oversight, as America marches toward a socialized system. This is a scary thought, and it's at the heart of Daschle's health-care policy vision, which President-elect Obama is sympathetic to.
Financial Incest
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 10:33AM
Just in case you thought Obama was going to rid Washington of insider cronyism:
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr.; Citigroup board member Robert E. Rubin; and Timothy F. Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have for years followed one another in and out of jobs in government and industry. Their close relationships helped pave the way for one of the largest and most dramatic government interventions to date in the financial crisis. . . . The bailout came only days after Paulson made comments that many in the financial markets took to mean that he would leave any future bailouts to the Obama administration. But once Citigroup's stock price plunged 60 percent last week, Rubin, an old colleague from Goldman Sachs, told Paulson in phone calls that the government had to act, according to industry sources familiar with their discussions. Geithner, too, shared a close relationship with the pair. He worked for Rubin at the Treasury Department in the 1990s and now is President-elect Barack Obama's nominee to follow Paulson as Treasury secretary. As Citigroup's lead regulator, Geithner was deeply involved in the rescue of the firm, participating in meetings and conference calls with Paulson through the weekend. He did, however, withdraw from direct interactions with Rubin and other Citigroup leaders in these negotiations after his name was leaked as Obama's nominee, according to people familiar with the discussions.
You voted for Hope. You got Goldman Sachs.
UPDATE: A friend writes:
It doesn't matter who you vote for. You always get Goldman Sachs. As someone famous is reputed to have said to Nelson Rockerfeller, "Why do want to run the country? You already own it."
Indeed, but you'd think that voters would eventually see through the liberal class-warfare charade. But if it weren't for gullible voters, where would the Democratic Party be?
King Paulson Speaks
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 10:31AM
Our Dear Leader, Hank Paulson, just wrapped up a press conference on the financial crisis. He said it would be "much worse" if Congress didn't give him $700 billion to unclog credit markets by purchasing troubled mortgage assets, er, spend however he wants and make stuff up as he goes along.
Daily Must Reads
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 9:58AM
- Prop 8 ruling could destroy fair and open arguments (WSJ)
- People feel poorer, so they're about to get poorer (Washington Post)
- When in doubt, look to a parable. Even for the economy (NRO)
- Bush, Obama, and Bastiat, failing to communicate (Forbes)
- Sec. of State Clinton raises her own salary, becomes inelegible (Volokh Conspiracy)
- Obama sets the bar low but the media will fawn over him when he clears it (IBDeditorials)
The State of the Senate Update
Posted by on 11.25.08 @ 9:05AM
In Minnesota, Norm Coleman's lead has grown back to 210 votes. (At the start of the recount process, Coleman was up 215 votes, but during the recount Franken had narrowed the gap to as low as 120.) The catch is that, with 77 percent of the recount in, the campaigns have challenged more than 3,000 ballots, so it's hard to say for sure who is gaining or losing votes. Nate Silver has done some statistical work suggesting that Franken's gains have been understated, and that actually he's the favorite to win. His analysis is based on the idea that Franken has gained in counties in which there are either no challenges or few challenges, and that Coleman's gap widened as challenges increased dramatically. But I'd take a bit different of an approach. If Coleman's lead stays in the 200 vote range, it would seem difficult for Franken to gain that many votes in a universe of just a few thousand challenged ballots. Keep in mind that these ballots have already been ruled on once by an elections judge, so you'd have to assume that an overwhelming majority of the challenges will fail, and right now the campaigns are challenging roughly the same number of ballots. So, if Coleman maintains his current margin as the Canvassing Board meets to rule on the challenged ballots, I think he'd be an pretty good position.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, Saxby Chambliss looks like he has the edge in next week's run-off, with a new PPP poll showing him crossing the magic 50-percent number with a 52-46 lead. An internal Democratic poll shows Chambliss below 50 percent, but still leading 48-46. I would add that the final PPP poll prior to the election showed Chambliss with a 48-46 lead, and he ended up winning the initial vote by a 49.8-46.8 margin. So in other words, the poll didn't skew Republican. I continue to believe that without Obama on the ballot, Martin won't benefit from super-sized black turnout, and that the state's traditional voting universe favors Chambliss.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Howdy, Pardoner
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 10:27PM
Good news and bad news about our ability to influence public policy with cogent writing.
The good news is that President Bush was without a doubt profoundly moved by my column, "I Beg Mister Vick's Pardon."
The bad news -- but par for the course in this White House -- is he pardoned the wrong Mr. Vick.
Breaking Up is Hard To Do
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 5:27PM
Hannity and Colmes are breaking up. No word on their solo albums.
Reaching Out to Pro-Lifers
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 5:19PM
Aren't you shocked that President-elect Obama has chosen Ellen Moran, the executive director of EMILY's List, to be his communications director instead of some pro-life Obamacon like Doug Kmiec?
Biden Adviser to Succeed Him in Senate
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 4:56PM
Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner has announced she is appointing Ted Kaufman to Joe Biden's Senate seat until the 2010 special election. By passing over several Democratic politicians in Delaware in favor of a close adviser to Biden, Minner is likely installing a placeholder to hold the seat until Beau Biden, the vice president-elect's son, returns from Iraq.
"What's the Worst That Can Happen?" Revisited
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 4:09PM
I spent the election doing a lot of spectualting over whether Obama would merely be a center-left president in the Clinton mold -- i.e., one who enjoys short-term political success while failing to seriously advance liberalism -- or whether he would actually be a transformational liberal leader who creates enduring big government institutions a la FDR and LBJ. Having been able to take a look at some of his early appoints, right now, it's looking more and more like the Clinton model. As Jim noted, there is already growling among the left because Obama has steered clear of radical progressive appointments thus far. Also, while what we know of the economic stimulus package thus far should be disconcerting to conservatives -- a $500-$700 billion price tag, plenty of room for pork in infastructure and environmental handouts -- none of it seems to be creating any lasting institutions that will be with us when the economy recovers, and/or irreversible during any future conservative administration. Obama also left open the possibliity that he wouldn't raise taxes on those making over $250,000 until the tax cuts are set to expire in 2011. With that said, there are clear long-term threats to the free market, with the most troubling on regulation and health care. Given that the ultimate cost of the bailouts will be in the trillions of dollars, and government will end up with huge stakes in banking, insurance, and the housing market, it's inevitable that we'll end up with a massive increase in regulation. Furthermore, Daschle's appointment to HHS signals that Obama is serious about creating universal health care, and the former Senate majority leader's keen understanding of the legislative process makes this a real possibility.
W. Liked Fannie and Freddie Too
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 3:24PM
Steve Sailer dusts of this Realty Times article reminding us that President Bush's program to increase minority home ownership relied heavily upon the generosity of Fannie and Freddie. Sailer asks, "By the way, do you ever get the feeling that historians will someday look back on the Bush-Obama years as a single era?"
Don't Blame Greed
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 11:28AM
There are two kinds of intellectual experts: (a) overeducated fools, and (b) experts who agree with me. From category (b), Professor Lawrence H. White explains the financial meltdown:
Those who fault "deregulation," "unfettered capitalism," or "greed" would do well to look instead at flawed institutions and misguided policies.
The expansion in risky mortgages to underqualified borrowers was encouraged by the federal government. The growth of "creative" nonprime lending followed Congress's strengthening of the Community Reinvestment Act, the Federal Housing Administration's loosening of down-payment standards, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development's pressuring lenders to extend mortgages to borrowers who previously would not have qualified.
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae grew to own or guarantee about half of the United States' $12 trillion mortgage market. Congressional leaders pointedly refused to moderate the moral hazard problem of implicit guarantees or otherwise rein in their hyperexpansion, instead pushing them to promote "affordable housing" through expanded purchases of nonprime loans to low income applicants.
The credit that fueled these risky mortgages was provided by the cheap money policy of the Federal Reserve. Following the 2001 recession, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan slashed the federal funds rate from 6.25 to 1.75 percent. It was reduced further in 2002 and 2003, reaching a record low of 1 percent in mid-2003 - where it stayed for a year. This set off what economist Steve Hanke called "the mother of all liquidity cycles and yet another massive demand bubble."
His full Cato Institute briefing paper is online in PDF format.
No Cabinet for Liberal Men
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 11:01AM
Or liberal women, children, and other living things, for that matter. So far the criticisms seem confined to the left side of the blogosphere -- folks like Chris Bowers and Chris Hayes -- and not your average rank-and-file Democrat. But they are probably not the only people who believe, "Not a single, solitary, actual dyed-in-the-wool progressive has, as far as I can tell, even been mentioned for a position in the new administration."
Daily Must Reads
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 10:27AM
- The Mormons are now in the thick of it, and there's no turning back (Washington Post)
- Obama fails the leadership test on Detroit (Bloomberg)
- Handicapping potential Bush pardons (Slate)
- Palin does T-day better than the Washington Post (NRO)
- All about CEA head-to-be Christina Romer (Marginal Revolution)
- "Research Shows..." something dubious (Times Higher Education)
- Where is a president-elect to find a Jeremiah Wright in DC? (Politico)
Somebody Teach Trent Edwards Supply-Side Economics
Posted by on 11.24.08 @ 6:45AM
He was the first Buffalo Bills quarterback to run for two touchdowns since Jack Kemp. I'm sure Matt Cassel is open to persuasion on these points as well.
- Michael Ledeen on Iran and Democracy
- The Right of Conscience in the Age of Obama
- Feeding the Beast