- Jan 7–13 14–20 21–27 28–31
- Feb 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–28
- Mar 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–31
- Apr 1–7 8–14 15–21 22–28 29–30
- May 1–5 6–12 13–19 20–26 27–31
- Jun 1–2 3–9 10–16 17–23 24–30
- Jul 1–7 8–14 15–21 22–28 29–31
- Aug 1–4 5–11 12–18 19–25 26–31
- Sep 1 2–8 9–15 16–22 23–29 30
- Oct 1–6 7–13 14–20 21–27 28–31
- Nov 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–30
- Dec 1 2–8 9–15 16–22 23–29 30–31
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Boston Media Pounds Romney
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 11:26PM
Romney Team is Busy
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 10:56PM
Today I received no less than seven missives from the Romney e-mail machine including one highlighting the anti-McCain/immigration ad. All were negative attacks on either Huckabee or McCain. Does this permeate to Iowa voters and if so does the barrage of attacks turn them off? The public complains about negative campaigning but candidates do it because it is often successful. Whether that, plus superior organization, is enough to save Romney's multi-million dollar investment in Iowa remains to be seen. On the organizational front, the Romney advantage here may be overestimated. Republican caucus voters essentially just show up and vote unlike the laborious process on the Democratic side which relies on activists to make the case for their candidate and sway their friends and neighbors. Steffen Schmidt, Iowa State political science professor and caucus guru, agrees that Huckabee trails badly in organizational muscle but concludes he "doesn't need it since they vote straight out at each caucus." In other words, if Phil's anecdotal evidence is correct -- Huckabee has the advantage in enthusiasm -- that may be more than enough to overcome Romney's elaborate organizational and communications effort.
Huckabee Outdraws Romney, Big Time
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 5:40PM
OTTUMWA, Iowa--Last night, I attended a Mike Hucabee event at the Bridge View Center here and made the conservative estimate that he drew a crowd of 400 to 500 inside an auditorium that held 650. When I noticed that Mitt Romney had an event at the same place this afternoon, I looked forward to getting an apples to apples comparison. I showed up again today and walked into the auditorium where I had seen Huckabee the night before, only to find it empty. The Romney event "is in a much smaller room on the other side," I was told. Whereas the room where Huckabee spoke was the size of a large movie theater, for the Romney event I was directed to "Conference Room 1," where I counted about 100 people once the event started. With the race in Iowa currently a tossup, everything will hinge on turnout, which is incredibly hard to predict, but crowd size is probably the best measure we have.
To be sure, this is just one anecdote, and perhaps there are differences between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, or other varaibles that I'm not taking into account. Or perhaps Huckabee will follow the path of Howard Dean, who was unable to convert large crowds into turnout. But the dramatic difference in the crowd size is just one small example of the potential for grassroots enthusiasm to triumph over paid organization.
The Paulines aren't going to like this one bit
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 4:22PM
The Ron Paul camp is reporting that their man will be excluded from the upcoming Fox TV forum Jan 6 in New Hampshire. Of course the internationalist neo-conservative cabal is behind this.
HT/LGF
Romney Emphasizes Family In Final Push
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 3:53PM
ALTOONA/NEWTON/PELLA, Iowa -- In a series of talks to the Saturday morning coffee and breakfast crowd in the southern part of the state, Mitt Romney argued that he had the right mix of character, vision, and experience to lead the nation.
Whereas Mike Huckabee tries to connect to the crowds here by presenting himself as being from a southern state with small towns not that different from Iowa in terms of basic values and concerns, Romney puts a heavy emphasis on family.
His wife Ann Romney held his hand at the Coffee House Hollander this morning, standing right by his side on top of a narrow box, as he addressed patrons. The couple spread out afterward so that Ann could hold a series of her own events. Romney also spoke about his father's rise from humble beginnings to a successful business and political career, and through it all, his father remained most proud of raising his four children. It's a sentiment Romney said he shares through his relationship with his five sons and 11 grandchildren.
The emphasis on the family is no doubt two fold--to connect with social conservatives and to counter the image of himself as robotic and unemotional.
Other than talking about family, Romney discussed the challenges including "global jihad," health care, and education--and argued that his background in business, the Olympics, and Massachusetts gives him the experience needed to bring about change in Washington. Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent, who is traveling with Romney, also cited these experiences in calling Romney the "transformational conservative in the race." However, given the problems Romney has gotten into with shifting his positions on a number of issues, I'm not sure "transformational" is an adjective that the campaign wants to employ on a regular basis.
Another interesting note was that the Huckabee campaign, perhaps because it lacks the resources to respond to all of Romney's attacks on television, has taken to sending surrogates out to Romney's events. I spoke with Huckabee supporter Gilbert Baker, an Arkansas state senator, outside the Midtown Cafe in Newton. Baker offered a point by point rebuttal of a Romney pamphlet he said distorted Huckabee's record on immigration as governor. I would write more, but am off to another event right now.
Reckless Iowa Predictions
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 2:36PM
Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney will finish first. Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney will finish second. Fred Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul or Rudy Giuliani will finish third. Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes will finish ahead of John Cox.
I won't even be this reckless with the Democratic field.
Hot Doddy, Redux
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 1:34PM
It's a bit surprising to see Chris Dodd, he of the strangely self-aware existential crisis, lashing out so late in a campaign he clearly has no shot at winning. (Not so long as Jesus is backing Huckabee, anyway.) After all, a little kindness now towards those who might actually wind up, you know, winning the presidency might make a race for Senate majority leader or his own legislative priorities easier down the road.
No, Dodd's outburst shows extraordinarily poor and short-sighted judgement, which is just one of the many reasons it's a good thing Chris Dodd will never be president. See how it all comes full circle?
Oh, and note to Roger Simon: These Dodd attacks aren't new in either substance or rhetoric, it's just that 95 percent of the time no one bothers to listen to Dodd anyway.
Huckabee Rips Romney Back
Posted by on 12.29.07 @ 2:24AM
OTTUMWA, Iowa-- Mike Huckabee on Friday night accused Mitt Romney of being "desperate" and "dishonest" in his negative attacks as part of the most extensive and direct public criticism Huckabee has yet leveled at his chief Iowa rival as the caucus approaches.
Speaking in front of a crowd of several hundred at the Bridgeview Center here, Huckabee said he wanted to take the opportunity to "set the record straight," and he countered Romney's criticisms of his record on taxes, spending, and clemencies.
Unlike earlier in the day, Huckabee named names. "After watching some of Mitt Romney's ads about me, I'm not sure I would vote for myself," he joked.
Huckabee said that Romney is getting desperate, because he finds himself behind in Iowa despite outspending Huckabee 20 to 1. "When people get that far behind after spending that much money, they get desperate," he said. "Desperate is one thing, dishonest is something else. When you get desperate and dishonest, it's not a pretty site."
In another example of the emerging everybody vs. Romney dynamic of the race, Huckabee came to the defense of John McCain, who has been trading barbs with Romney in New Hampshire over an attack ad. "John McCain is a true, honest to god, American hero," Huckabee said.
He also went after Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts. "Mr. Romney says I raised taxes," Huckabee said. "What he doesn't tell you is that he raised a half a billion dollars in fees, mostly on small business people." In response to Romney's argument that he granted zero clemencies as governor, Huckabee argued that Romney was doing the politically safe thing, and asked the audience for a show of hands as to whether they would have pardoned an Iraq War vet who couldn't become a police officer, because of a BB gun offense when he was 13 (Romney didn't).
Huckabee also questioned Romney's pro-life credentials, noting that he was a recent convert and suggesting the audience look into the Massachusetts health care plan Romney signed, that offered abortions for a $50 co-pay.
"You have the right to know the truth," Huckabee said several times. "Quite frankly, I believe we ought to elect a president not because he's been able to disable his opponents, and not because he's been dishonest with people about his opponents. Because just remember this: if somebody is dishonest in order to get a job, how can you trust them to be honest in the job?"
I was told that the auditorium, about the size of a movie theater, seated 650 people, and I would say 400-500 of those seats were filled--which Huckabee claimed was a turnout twice as big as that of Bill and Hillary Clinton at a recent event at the same place. Romney is also speaking at the venue Saturday afternoon, so I'll be able to compare crowd size.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Biden His Time
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 9:29PM
Okay, I want to be the first on record to go way WAY WAY out on a limb here. I retain the right to revise and extend these remarks BEFORE the caucuses, because I have some other feelers out that I need to check thoroughly before this is a definitive prediction. (How's THAT for hedging my bets?!) Anyway, I think this might be the first presidential caucus/primary in history where the FOURTH place winner is the story of the day. In Iowa, I think there is a real chance for Joe Biden to run such a surprisingly strong fourth place finish that he suddenly gets grouped in the top tier of candidates moving forward, with a real chance after that to do well in South Carolina. Again, this is based on preliminary evidence, but UNLESS I revise this prediction BEFORE the caucuses, it will stand as my official prediction. I am picking up signs of unanticipated Biden strength. You heard it here first.
Romney Responds
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 9:12PM
Romney says this is a typical McCain "personal" attack. This might have been an effective tactic before Romney put up his own negative barrage but the danger for McCain is to take the response too far, making Romney sympathetic. McCain has his chance and an issue-- foreign expertise -- but the challenge to keep his cool and focus.
This Ain't Beanbag
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 8:59PM
Mark Halperin at The Page has the McCain ad responding to Romney's latest attack. McCain makes use of anti-Romney editorial opinion from local press that has been blistering. McCain is banking that the doubts about Romney's credibility have gained some traction and Romney's decision to strike first will make the public more receptive to an ad that essentially says: "Romney can't be trusted." McCain is aided by New England op-eds plus independent fact checkers whose remarks his campaign is widely circulating that he hopes will help convince voters that he is indeed the straight talker and Romney is not. While Romney is engaged in a two front war in NH and Iowa Huckabee is up with his own ads and encouraged by another poll showing him holding with a 7 pt lead. Meanwhile, Rudy is blanketing the cable news shows to remind voters he's just the right tough guy in a tough world. And Rudy by the way is spending a whole lot of time in NH between now and the 8th-- perhaps hoping that a Romney loss in Iowa and an effective barrage by McCain will leave open the possibility that he can edge up on the NH leaders, make a comeback kid finish and snag some headlines to gain momentum going into Florida.
Free Market Fred
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 4:51PM
OTTUMWA, Iowa -- Say what you want about Fred Thompson, but the man is not pandering.
At an event here at the Ottumwa Hotel this afternoon, Thompson called on a man in the front row who let out a huge cheer during his formal remarks, perhaps expecting a softball question. What Thompson got instead was a question from Mickey Hucks, Sr., who retired eight years ago from Deere & Co. and received notice in October that his health care plan would be changed in a way that will force him to pay more out of pocket. Hucks wanted Thompson's thoughts about a large company that would switch health care on its retirees.
"Well, I hate to see that," Thompson responded. But then he retorted, "What are your thoughts concerning what we can do about that as a federal government?"
Hucks was impressed. "Good comeback," he acknowledged.
Thompson went on to argue that the only responsibility of government is to support policies that would allow the free market to thrive, and as long as businesses are following the law and abiding by contracts the government should step aside so they can compete.
"And have record profits and never are satisfied?" Hucks followed up.
"Well, there's nothing wrong with record profits," Thompson shot back.
"Except when they're taken off the back of the worker that put you there," Hucks interjected.
Then Thompson implored him to "look at the whole picture" rather than one situation. "What I'm saying is that as a general rule, the President of the United States cannot sit there and make a case about what some company ought to do down in Houston, Texas, or somewhere like that," he said. "What a president can do is insist on lower taxes, less regulation, less interference, a decent Fed policy through appointment to the Federal Reserve Board, and things of that nature that will make for a good, free, viable, economy. And if companies do wrong in the free market place, they're usually punished by that same market."
I spoke with Hucks afterward, who said Thompson gave a "fine" answer and that he understands that the federal government has limited power in his circumstances.
"I'm going to support Senator Thompson, without a doubt," he told me. "I like his fundamental conservative thoughts on everything, especially that comment about high fences and a wide gate." That was a reference to Thompson's philosophy on immigration.
Hucks said he had also considered Mike Huckabee, but had issues with his record on immigration as governor. He dismissed Mitt Romney by saying Romney had switched his positions on several issues, so he doesn't trust him to maintain his current positions going forward.
Despite the endorsement of Hucks (and as happy as I was to see Thompson defend free market principles), I saw no evidence of a late Thompson surge that some were predicting following his excellent debate performance earlier this month. Though the event was standing room only, it would have been pathetic if it weren't, since it was held in a tiny room with just about 40 seats. Unlike Huckabee, who made a clear closing argument based on his populist appeal to the electorate, it wasn't obvious what Thompson was going for. He mentioned that conservative commentators universally praised his Social Security and tax proposals (and rightly so), but while a stronger candidate at this point in the race would have been able to have a tight explanation for what's so special about them, he referred the audience to his website and said he could answer any questions about them after his remarks for those who wanted more details. Then he went on to say that voters aren't going to vote for a proposal on Jan. 3, but for a leader. That's fine too, but it kind of undercuts any attempt to use his proposals to sell his candidacy. While Huckabee skillfully wove in references to Pella throughout his remarks this morning, Thompson didn't mention Ottumwa during the speech --even though the local newspaper endorsed him on Wednesday. There's only so much you can tell from one event, to be sure. But I would be surprised if, with less than a week to go, the man I saw this afternoon has a strong showing next Thursday.
Huckabee's Pitch to Iowans
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 3:33PM
PELLA, Iowa -- With the roads slick and covered in snow this Friday, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson held competing events here this morning, a few blocks from one another along Main St. I caught up with Huckabee at Pizza Ranch, where he spoke to a packed room and people in the back stood on chairs to try and get a glimpse of the Iowa frontrunner over the standing crowd and cameras.
Huckabee's speech was more about appealing to Iowans as if he were one of them than it was about advocating specific policies. Other than a throwaway line about instability in Pakistan, there was scant mention of foreign policy, while the domestic policy discussion involved a brief mention of the fair tax and the need to secure the borders.
Instead, much of the speech tried to connect the type of values one would find in a small town in Arkansas with Pella--a neighborhood where Huckabee said "Ozzie and Harriet could have lived" and "going to church is not an oddity." Noting the children in the audience, he said that when he was governor, everything he did had in mind a 7 year old living in Dermott, Arkansas--an impoverished part of the state. That's what motivated him to expand access to health care for children as well as improve roads and schools. He referred back to the 7 year old throughout the speech.
Huckabee also took aim at his top rival in Iowa, though he did not mention Mitt Romney by name. Huckabee said he is pro-life as a matter of personal conviction, and he did not become that way because he was running for president. He noted that he has been outspent 20 to 1 and that his rival was spending "10 gizallion dollars" on negative ads, but the election, he said, "should not be about who raises money, but who raises hope." Responding to some of the charges in the ads, he said that he cut taxes 94 times, that meth penalties were 4 times harsher in his state than Massachusetts, and that he allowed 16 people to be executed (thus he is not soft on crime).
Pakistan and the Presidential Candidates
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 1:31PM
Center-right pundits love "the holiday from history is over" narratives, so I'm not surprised to see that becoming the conventional wisdom in the wake of Bhutto's murder. Polling data will soon enough confirm or refute the idea that the events in Pakistan will sway our own presidential politics. I suspect it will influence the Republican primary electorate, which is concerned about radical Islam, far more than the Democratic electorate, which seems more interested in a break from the Bush foreign policy than what that break might entail.
As noted earlier, these events have already pitted John McCain, who has foreign policy experience but has never run any large organization, against Mitt Romney, a skilled executive with no foreign policy experience. But maybe the beneficiary will be Rudy Giuliani, who can claim a bit of both. I happen to think that the claims on behalf of his executive prowess are far stronger than those made on behalf of his foreign policy know-how, but for most of the past year a plurality of Republicans has regarded Giuliani as the candidate who best understands the war on terror.
Personally, I'm with Ross Douthat -- the crisis in Pakistan ought to make us more skeptical of people who claim they can manage the complex affairs of foreign nations to our benefit rather than less skeptical. Considering the amount of knowledge required, even the most skilled and experienced 2008 candidates may as well be reading from 3 X 5 cards. But if Pakistan figures prominently in the minds of Republican primary voters, it probably will push them towards the candidates they view as the strongest leaders.
Landslide Dapper
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 12:55PM
Larry Henry's column remembering Dapper O'Neil reminded me of one of my favorite bits of political bravado. Dapper used to boast, "They aren't gonna be counting my votes. They're gonna weigh 'em."
Re: So It's Settled...
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 12:01PM
And by Andrew Sullivan's own logic, wouldn't we be punishing ourselves by at least potentially allowing a landslide-validated Barack Obama to pass an enduring liberal program, revive liberalism as a popular governing philosophy, and maybe even usher in that new Democratic majority Texeria and Judis are always going on about? No thanks. At least the worst of the Republicans are likely to discredit themselves in four years.
So It's Settled...
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 11:45AM
...true conservatives will vote for Obama! What? Don't snicker! It's perfectly logical! Ask Andrew Sullivan! Or are you one of those sellout Republicans who doesn't want to use Obama to "punish their own party for its abandonment of conservatism, embrace of dumb authoritarianism abroad and spendthrift liberalism at home"?
Look, Andrew, the Republicans we have running are bad enough, okay? I already feel like I'm being punished. Why I would want to compound that pain by voting for a kneejerk liberal who is going to spend the next four years lecturing me on the never-ending list of virtues he attributes to himself--before going ahead and injecting the government into ever further reaches of my life for my own good anyway? I mean, if I wanted a preening, pious megalomaniac I'd just vote for that Baptist guy who stays at the Holiday Inn Express.
My other quibbles with Sullivan's fawning Obama piece in The Atlantic live here.
Re: Hewitt Rips
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 11:28AM
It's fair to conclude that the Romney team is in a state of "heightened concern." Running a negative ad against McCain in NH after promising to put out their positive closing message suggests they are equally if not more concerned about a NH loss than an Iowa upset. If you caught Romney on John Gibson or on Hannity and Colmes last night you saw a candidate struggling to escape generalities and relying on rather cliched set phrases. On Today he invoked Reagan as an example of a candidate nonexperienced in foreign affairs. But of course, Reagan had written and given speeches for years on Communism-- the equivalent of writing and speechifying for years on Islamic terrorism. McCain is fighting back, smartly putting out email briefings debunking Romney's ad and citing Romney's own shortcomings on immigration and tax cuts. But the real issue for Romney, and for Huckabee, is that voters got a wake up call yesterday. This is no time for a candidate operating on 3X5 notecards who has never met with world leaders, never questioned the joint chiefs, never seen a Pentagon budget and never dealt with skittish allies. The ground has shifted and Romney's surrogates are right to be worried.
Hewitt Rips McCain's Foreign Policy Credentials
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 8:43AM
In the wake of the events in Pakistan, Romney flak Hugh Hewitt took aim at his man's New Hampshire rival on his radio show:
If Hewitt is going to argue that he'd rather have a president and commander in chief who has executive experience, or that McCain's national security bona fides don't make up for his faults in other areas, that's one thing. But to insult McCain's foreign policy credentials because you disagree with his vote against the Bush tax cuts is just plain silly. And I don't think it's a wise tactic for Romney surrogates to employ (and let's face it, that's basically what Hewitt is at this point, and he gets paid in book royalties).
His Name is Dollar for a Reason
Posted by on 12.28.07 @ 8:10AM
Sen. Charles Grassley's inquiry into the spending of church ministers who promote the "prosperity gospel" has spurred a number of articles about that belief system, including an Associated Press story today about those critical of the movement. One of the ministers under investigation, Atlanta-based Creflo Dollar, is the only one of the six under Grassley's scrutiny to defy the senator's request for documents about his church's spending habits.
That doesn't surprise me, after having written an in-depth feature about him back in 2001. He may have a lot to hide. By the way, after all the subjects I've written about, the search term "Creflo Dollar" has by far driven the most hits to my personal Web site, which amazes me to this day.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
New York City...
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 10:52PM
...the place where ideas too stupid to live in other cities and states come to roost. Seriously, it's like the dodos of the law world have found a place where they can finally, oddly survive.
It Matters Plenty
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 8:49PM
Unlike ARG which shows a narrowing lead for Huckabee in Iowa, the LAT/Bloomberg poll shows Huckabee with a healthy 14 pt lead. However, the same poll also shows Romney maintaining his NH lead. (My undisclosed vacation location has iffy access so I apologize for the lack of links for a couple of days.) Do check out Jonathan Martin's savvy take at Politico.com on why Romney can't seem to get a clear shot at McCain. On the tragic events today in Pakistan it seems once again that voters are reminded that it really matters terribly who is president and whether that individual has experience and judgment. I caught Romney on CNN saying something to the effect that compared to the events today the presidential campaign pales by comparison in importance. I think this is exactly wrong. The assassination makes clear that the choices we make in the next few weeks are crucial for both the US and the world and we should think twice before electing a candidate -- Huckbee or Obama -- who seems naive in the extreme or one --Romney -- whose entire experience consists of briefings by experts in the last year. Bob Novak seems to think it's McCain's moment. Could be but Thompson and Rudy may also find this the opportune moment to remind voters of the importance of sober, hard headed foreign policy judgment by folks who know their way around the international stage.
Don't Forget Jason Werner
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 2:44PM
Although I failed to mention him in my column on the main site, Jason Werner is also running for the Republican nomination to take on Dennis Kucinich.
My Grandfather Is No Lady
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 1:56PM
A local New Hampshire paper I spent a few years freelancing for, Foster's Daily Democrat, does well what local newspapers all too often forget to do--tell the stories of the community it is based in. This week the paper chose to tell the story of my grandfather's 1936 Christmas. It's got all the good holiday story stuff: Poverty, brothers who care even as they jibe, a Dear Santa letter and....dolls.
Panic-stan
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 12:13PM
If the broken-English reports at the impeccably well-named Pakistani Spectator are accurate, all hell is breaking loose.
Hillary on Bhutto
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 12:07PM
I might have misheard, but Hillary Clinton, in her on her on the stump comments to Benazir Bhutto's assassination, took some factual liberties, suggesting that Bhutto's autobiography begins with her father's "assassination," which isn't what one would normally call an execution. Hillary also hailed her as the mother of two children, when she had three.
Benazir Bhutto, RIP
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 10:50AM
Back on October 25, George Wittman saw tragedy in the making:
Her friends say that she is a careful and analytical person, but willful in matters important to her. Her courage cannot be doubted. That may be so, and these may be characteristics acceptable in business and even in politics in normal Western democracies, but in Pakistan there is a high potential that these traits can result in death long before one's time.
Romney on Bhutto
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 10:05AM
NASHUA, NH -- In between retail glad-handing of voters over breakfast at local diners, Mitt Romney stopped to comment on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, calling it a reminder of "the extraordinary reality of global violent radical jihadism." Asked if the attack made him reconsider his criticism of Pervez Musharraf's martial law declaration, he said no.
Here's the (not terribly good) audio in .wma format. (That might mean it won't play on Macs, and if so, sorry -- I don't have time to convert it to .mp3 at the moment.)
UPDATE: Fox News had a better microphone; here's the video.
Now THIS On the Other Hand...
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 9:27AM
Re: A Week Left
Posted by on 12.27.07 @ 8:20AM
Romney now has editorial opinion (from the Boston Globe and Herald to the Union Leader) clearly arrayed against him and is fighting back, contending the Concord Monitor is just a liberal rag out to get him. McCain folks are happy to point out that Romney did seek their endorsement and more conservative papers have also come out in favor of their man McCain but the "anybody but" editorial stung hard.
While I'm sure every candidate would like to be endorsed by everyone, everywhere, Romney doesn't have to "contend" the Concord Monitor is a "liberal rag." Well, actually, it's not a rag. It's one of the best papers in the state for local features and they were kind enough to print many pieces I wrote while at the Associated Press that I didn't believe would get picked up anywhere. Many great and kind reporters work there. Still, the editorial page is frequently so over the top you'd think it was a parody of Daily Kos postings. No Republican partisan or true blue Granite State conservative would ever go to the Monitor for voting advice, never mind take the paper's word over David Keane's or National Review's or all the many other endorsements he's racked up from, you know, people and publications who actually share their general philosophy.
Indeed, I doubt very seriously that if you read a week's worth of Concord Monitors you would still be of the opinion that this editorial "stung hard." If anything, I would presume it made a few New Hampshire Republicans supporting other candidates wonder what it is about Romney that the state's liberal stalwarts are so afraid of. Union Leader for McCain hurt Romney. The Concord Monitor only helped, would be my guess.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
The Elizabeth Edwards Cult
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 9:26PM
MANCHESTER, NH -- There's a handmade banner in the Manchester headquarters of the John Edwards campaign that reads "New Hampshire [heart]'s Elizabeth + John." Isn't that a peculiar order to put it in?
To be fair, Edwards no longer seems to be playing the wife-with-cancer card on the stump. When I caught him at an appearance in Laconia this afternoon, the theme he kept returning to is that he's a fighter (although the "kick that guy's butt" line he's used in Iowa has been softened to "don't ever walk away from a fight"*). More on that Friday, though, when I'll have a column wrapping up this trip, which if all goes well will include a day with Mitt Romney tomorrow.
*quote corrected
Quin on Hannity and Colmes
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 9:25PM
As I type, our Quin Hillyer is weighing in about McCain, bird-hunter Huckabee, and flopping Romney on tonight's edition of Hannity and Colmes (starring Rich Lowry in Hannity's slot).
A Week Left
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 8:53PM
Most of us are still vacationing or returning those odd Christmas gifts but McCain and Romney have left the Christmas spirit behind. The reason? McCain can vault into a commanding position in the race by winning NH and Romney by his own admission must win both NH and Iowa. Romney now has editorial opinion (from the Boston Globe and Herald to the Union Leader) clearly arrayed against him and is fighting back, contending the Concord Monitor is just a liberal rag out to get him. McCain folks are happy to point out that Romney did seek their endorsement and more conservative papers have also come out in favor of their man McCain but the "anybody but" editorial stung hard. Meanwhile Rudy spends several days in Florida, banking that Huckabee, McCain and Romney will rough each other up and his Florida-February 5 strategy won't look so silly a month from now. His medical clean bill of health he hopes will put to rest the media chatter and allow him to focus on the issues which are his strong suit-- terrorism and the economy.
A Straw In the New England Wind
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 4:00PM
LACONIA, NH -- I spent the last hour or so on the highways in New Hampshire, and I saw exactly one bumper sticker for a presidential candidate (I'm not counting a couple of cars I saw that still had Kerry/Edwards stickers). It was a Ron Paul sticker. Presumably this means there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm for any of the mainstream candidates.
Re: All Hucked Up
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 3:45PM
Quin, I very much agree with you that Huckabee's rise signifies long-term problems for the Reagan coalition (even if Republicans do ultimately end up uniting behind the eventual nominee). I agree even more strongly with this point of yours: "The roots of this bizarreness lie in Washington. Since 1998, the majority of congressional Republicans have shown they have no clue about what motivates most right-leaning voters and even less of a clue about what constitutes good public policy."
But I'd quibble with this: "Oddly enough, it is the social conservatives who seem to feel most victimized, even though President Bush has stayed true to them on every issue under the sun while giving the back of his hand to the Goldwaterites." First, I don't think their anger is primarily with President Bush. It is with a party that, until the emergence of Huckabee as a top-tier contender, didn't provide them a viable 2008 candidate who shared their values to the same extent as Bush.
Second, I think if you look at the social conservatives, despite being the largest single voting bloc in the GOP they have accomplished fewer of their goals than any conservative/Republican faction with the exception of the more libertarian conservatives. On prayer in school, church-state jurisprudence more broadly, gay rights, and, above all, abortion, everything social conservatives have accomplished -- even under Bush -- has been at the margins. That is not entirely the fault of the GOP, but it is a factor in their frustration.
Finally, I think Huck's rise has to be understood in the context of Rudy Giuliani. For almost all of 2007, Giuliani was the Republican frontrunner despite his social liberalism. Yet you can count on one hand the number of conservative pundits who argued that his record on social issues or position on abortion should disqualify him from the nomination. Conservative pundits were far less forgiving of Huckabee. You can certainly make the case that Huckabee has deviated from traditional conservative orthodoxy on more issues than Giuliani, but it just so happens that the issues where Giuliani has deviated are the same issues that got many Huckabee supports involved in politics in the first place.
In a field where just about every candidate takes a heterodox position on this or that issue, a food fight within the conservative coalition was perhaps inevitable. But with Giuliani and Huckabee as leading candidates, the priorities of the largest single conservative constituency have been pitted against those of the rest of the right.
All Hucked Up -- My Latest
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 2:16PM
In my latest column -- this one at Comment is Free (of the Guardian online) -- I argue that the strength of Huckabee and, to a lesser extent, McCain, is a sign of rough times for the old Reaganite conservative coalition. Read it and see if you agree.
DJ Jazzy Jeff Wouldn't Have Mentioned Hitler
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 11:41AM
Now this is a story all about how/My quote got flip-turned upside down.
Will Smith learns that making complicated points to celebrity profilers, especially those involving Hitler, is a PR no-no.
About Hillary's Resume...
Posted by on 12.26.07 @ 11:18AM
Jonah Goldberg says that Barack Obama and John Edwards should excerpt this New York Times story and put it on every windshield in Iowa. He's right. The first few paragraphs:
As first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton jaw-boned the authoritarian president of Uzbekistan to leave his car and shake hands with people. She argued with the Czech prime minister about democracy. She cajoled Roman Catholic and Protestant women to talk to one another in Northern Ireland. She traveled to 79 countries in total, little of it leisure; one meeting with mutilated Rwandan refugees so unsettled her that she threw up afterward.
But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president's daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda.
And during one of President Bill Clinton's major tests on terrorism, whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan in 1998, Mrs. Clinton was barely speaking to her husband, let alone advising him, as the Lewinsky scandal sizzled.
In seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton lays claim to two traits nearly every day: strength and experience. But as the junior senator from New York, she has few significant legislative accomplishments to her name. She has cast herself, instead, as a first lady like no other: a full partner to her husband in his administration, and, she says, all the stronger and more experienced for her "eight years with a front-row seat on history."
Hillary has been making the case that she brings almost as much to the table as her husband, the former president. In reality, her record is, as Dick Cheney might put it, frankly not very distinguished. She is only slightly more experienced than Obama.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
See you on December 27
Posted by on 12.25.07 @ 11:48PM
In the interests of civilized discourse, our main page will clear its head on December 26 and return with a full lineup on Thursday, the 27th. See you then. Hope you had as merry a Christmas as we did.
Faith in the Ballot Box
Posted by on 12.25.07 @ 6:58AM
Merry Christmas to all my AmSpec friends. My friend Rick Martinez, who writes a weekly column for The News & Observer of Raleigh, today has a great piece about why some people have legitimate reasons - like religious beliefs - for not voting for who otherwise might be their best "issues" candidate:
Why not? What's wrong with voting for or against someone because of his or her religion?
I know, it's the whole church versus state thing. But implicit in the right to vote is the freedom to base that vote on any factor one desires, including a candidate's religion.
Rick goes on to say how he has recovered from his own "informed voter" snobbery, among other things. Terrific read.
Christmas with Bing 'n' Bowie
Posted by on 12.25.07 @ 12:06AM
This "Little Drummer Boy/Peace on Earth" duet between the late great Bing Crosby and David Bowie has always been one of my favorites. Merry Christmas.
Monday, December 24, 2007
It's the Mitt Romneyest Time of the Year
Posted by on 12.24.07 @ 1:26PM
Join in John Derbyshire's 2007 Christmas sing-a-long.
Note to Israel: It's The Taxes, Stupid
Posted by on 12.24.07 @ 1:03PM
The Jerusalem Post notes that the rate of aliya--or Jewish immigration to Israel--has dropped to a 20-year low. One official laments:
NH Battle
Posted by on 12.24.07 @ 8:11AM
Romney is feeling the heat-- taking a shot at McCain and getting a blast back. McCain throws in big and little issues in a comical list of insults. It may be that the biggest damage done by Huckabee to Romney was not in Iowa but in NH. To fend off Huckabee Romney has had to dwell on his social conservative credentials, spend gobs of time in Iowa and focus 90% of his fire on Huckabee. Meanwhile McCain has been the steady guy, wooing the locals in NH with his townhall performances. After a week more of pounding it's not at all certain Huckabee will hold on in Iowa but McCain may very well win NH on the strength of his own efforts helped by the Union Leader and other favorable coverage. UPDATE: Fascinating reading here on "apprehension but not panic" in Romney camp.
GOP Class Warfare
Posted by on 12.24.07 @ 12:26AM
Terry Eastland, who has probably been more sympathetic to Mike Huckabee than anyone else at the Weekly Standard, writes about the "Republican as class warrior."
A Victory for Tancredo?
Posted by on 12.24.07 @ 12:04AM
Reuters is reporting an uptick in illegal immigrants self-deporting, due in part to stepped up enforcement. This is in line with other reports I've seen, although the evidence still seems largely anecdotal.
In other immigration hawk news, some members of Americans of Legal Immigration have been expressing concerns about Tom Tancredo's endorsement of Mitt Romney.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Re: Grosse Pointe Blank
Posted by on 12.23.07 @ 9:09PM
I have no problem with people attacking Mitt Romney for inconsistencies, policy shifts, opportunism, lack of credibility, and the rest. On the abortion issue alone, there is plenty of ammunition. But this particular story is just dumb, the self-righteousness of the anti-Romney Boston Phoenix aside.
At the very worst, Mitt Romney embellished his own recollection of his father's strong civil rights record, which is hardly worse than the Rudy Giuliani time at Ground Zero controversy. George Romney marched in support of Martin Luther King, met with King and other civil rights leaders, and was a strong proponent of equal rights for black Americans. Given that there are many more promising lines of attack against Mitt Romney's credibility and trustworthiness, there is no reason to focus on one where his father's legacy can easily wind up as collateral damage.
Thompson Coverage
Posted by on 12.23.07 @ 5:21PM
Now if anyone has the right to complain about recent coverage it is Thompson. This explains the latest from the LA Times. Then of course there was the coverage of the firehouse event that has since been largely discredited. Is it some secret bias against Thompson or just lazy reporters? Regardless, Thompson's fate largely rests with Iowa voters who will judge for themselves whether he is working hard to stay in the race. With the harsh treatment Romney and Huckabee are getting voters there may look for an alternative who doesn't seem so troubled by his past. That could be Thompson or McCain who picked up another Iowa newspaper endorsement today.
Re: Grosse Pointe
Posted by on 12.23.07 @ 4:58PM
I agree with James to an extent. If it was just one hazy memory the Romney MLK flap would be a one day or less story. But of course it follows others and his more general problem of credibility/conviction due to his many policy changes which other candidates are not burdened with. (I have already written and entirely agree none of this has anything to do with George Romney's civil rights record.) It becomes more important because as we noted yesterday McCain is playing this to the hilt and the Boston Globe poll numbers including the drop in Romney's trustworthiness numbers show there is some traction. When MSM and blog media get into the act on the shading/ flip flop storyline it makes McCain's job infinitely easier. Is it more important to voters than Huckabee's ethical and policy positions? More important than McCain's position on immigration?
One More Reason Not to Vote for Huckabee
Posted by on 12.23.07 @ 11:52AM
The Dallas Morning News endorses him, and it's no caricature to say they like him because they infer that he's a liberal at heart.
Grosse Pointe Blank
Posted by on 12.23.07 @ 12:55AM
I think this "did he march with Martin Luther King" story is overplayed. It was wrong for Mitt Romney to imply that he had witnessed something he had not. His phrasing did not sound like he was speaking figuratively, if that was in fact his intent. Romney does have a pattern of gilding the lily (although he isn't the only Republican candidate to have that problem).
That said, there do seem to be conflicting recollections about whether George Romney marched with Martin Luther King Jr., as well as conflicting sources. David Broder and Stephen Hess describe the two men marching together in their book The Republican Establishment: The Present and Future of the GOP, which was published only four years after the Grosse Pointe march had taken place. It doesn't appear that anyone came forward to dispute their account at the time.
Based on various accounts, the most likely scenario may be this: The two men both participated in major Michigan civil rights marches within a few days of each other, King in Detroit and George Romney in Grosse Pointe, and some people honestly got mixed up. There were other ties between King and Romney, and George Romney's stalwart civil rights record is indisputable.
In any event, we should be careful before imputing bad motives to anyone who thinks they remember the elder Romney marching with King. Mitt Romney should be careful in describing events he did not actually witness. And we should all be careful not to allow a minor campaign kerfuffle detract from George Romney's true record.
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