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Saturday, December 22, 2007

Romney At Center of the Storm

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.22.07 @ 11:09PM

You don't have to buy into the inference as to motives to find the facts in this compelling on the MLK flap. The the Concord Monitor says in a blistering op-ed "anyone but Mitt." James or others can correct me but I don't recall that any New England paper has done this before. Romney does turn up the heat on McCain but McCain fires back using the credibility issues. Then several notice that Romney has started embracing President Bush very closely. What happened to running as the "change" candidate and "apparently the Surge is working"? The polls tomorrow will tell you why I suspect.

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Rudy Gets Some MSM Help

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.22.07 @ 8:17AM

On the Rudy NY City billing issue the Globe touts its sister publication NY Times story and quotes Rudy advisor and former Deputy Mayor Randy Mastro as claiming vindication. But a Chris Matthews "mea culpa" is really something special.

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Re: I Sorta Saw

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.22.07 @ 7:48AM

Busy news at the end of the day yesterday. Politico found( they actually were sent by the candidate whose father they adore) two senior citizen ladies who say they saw MLK march with George Romney. This seemed strange since when Madden spokesman went on Hardball and got the full Chris Matthews evisceration he didn't bring up the ladies. Well there was likely good reason. This report seems rather persuasive-- If King contemporaneously said Romney wasn't there it makes it tough to say he was. Still it is undisputed that Romney didn't in the real, telling the truth sense of the words "see" any marching or as he once claimed "march" himself. This all seems exactly the conversation Romney doesn't want going on -- talking heads arguing about whether there is a Gore like pattern of exaggeration. By the way, as pointed out in the Boston Phoenix article none of this should diminish George Romney's role in civil rights.

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Friday, December 21, 2007

Politics and Eggnog

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.21.07 @ 11:57PM

Michael Brendan Dougherty provides a nice roundup of the major presidential candidates' holiday commercials. Some, like the Mike Huckabee ad, are familiar. But they're all worth a look.

The Romney family video is nicely done as well. But will the footage of grandpa brushing aside little grandson's concerns about hitting the pole, like a Bain exec dissmissing last-minute objections to a business deal, be the campaign's next dog on the roof moment?

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topics: Business

Populist Cage Match, Continued

Posted by John Tabin on 12.21.07 @ 5:58PM

Rush tosses Huckabee around the ring like a rag-doll.

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What is it About Hope?

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 2:15PM

The Boy Candidate.

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The Gang that Couldn't Sweep Straight

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 1:19PM

H.L. Mencken defined a Puritan as someone harboring the "haunting fear that someone, somewhere, might be happy." Walmartopia's producers and audience seem to have a haunting fear someone, somewhere, might be getting a bargain.

I review the off-Broadway play today at National Review.

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Let Me Tell You How Special I Am

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 1:02PM

Just got a piece of mail encouraging me to subscribe to Jim Hightower's newsletter, The Lowdown so I can keep up on the behind the scenes crimes of the neo-con cabal. Hightower describes the newsletter as, "one feisty, fact-packed and often funny newsletter...to give you the lowdown on what's really going on in Washington, Wall Street and the world at large."

I wonder if this doesn't fall under the category of things you should let other people say about you. And if you are going to say it about yourself, why not go ahead and tell us the newsletter is unrelentingly funny?

Lest I leave the impression Hightower has no fans, however, Willie Nelson ("Hightower rocks!") and Barbara "Elf" Ehrenreich ("..and he charges only ten bucks a year--now that's nickels and dimes!") both make appearances.

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'Mobility Rights'?

Posted by James Poulos on 12.21.07 @ 12:20PM

It's open borders' next frontier. Immigration's too middling a cause for some. Migration's where it's at. Kerry Howley raises the issue at Reason, and I mourn the euthanasia of politics it seems to promise.

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topics: Immigration

The Ranks of Surviving WWI Vets

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.21.07 @ 12:17PM

Has gotten smaller. There are now only two known U.S. World War I veterans who are still alive.

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Re: Huck With Anti-Catholic Bigot

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.21.07 @ 12:05PM

John McCain, Newt Gingrich, Tom DeLay, Joe Lieberman, and Rick Santorum (who is Catholic) have all appeared with John Hagee. And that's just from my personal recollection and some cursory googling -- I'm sure the list of politicians who have appeared with Hagee is even longer. None of them did so because of anti-Catholicism. They appeared with Hagee because of his leadership in Christians United for Israel. President George W. Bush gave a welcoming statement to the group's Washington Summit earlier this year. Hagee has advised Texas Gov. Rick Perry on divestment from Iran.

I'm no Hagee fan myself, but let's be honest: By appearing at Cornerstone Church, Mike Huckabee is trying to appeal to that constituency -- conservative evangelicals and other Christian Zionists -- not the miniscule anti-Catholic vote. If Hagee's theology or other views make him beyond the pale, then there are a lot of politicians who should be condemned.

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topics: John McCain, Catholicism, Iran, Israel

More Robo-Calls in New Hampshire

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 12:05PM

But, unfortunately, still no RoboCop.

Personally, I think the amount of time actual adults--some of whom would like to lead the free world, no less--spend in overwrought, hand-wringing consternation over push-polls and robo-calls in this country is fairly pathetic, but since addressing the concerns of the ever-growing emasculated crybaby constituency is such a big part of the campaign process these days....It looks like some anti-Hillary calls are coming from a group previously linked to a certain aw shucks populist? (No, not that one.)

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Romney Up In Michigan

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 11:54AM

Leaving no early state stone unturned, Romney has launched a new TV ad specifically addressing Michigan's economic problems. If Romney loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll need a win in his birth state to rescue his campaign. If he wins in Iowa or New Hampshire, a win in Michigan could make him unbeatable heading into South Carolina and beyond.

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Re: McCain's Surge

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 11:49AM

Hewitt: "The anti-Romney spammers fill my e-mail box with accusations, and the mature voters laugh and laugh at them."

Where, pray tell, do those mythical creatures frolic? Can I just follow the sound of laughter or is there a wilted old map with a giant X on it Hewitt might be able to scan in for us?

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McCain's Surge in New Hampshire

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 11:39AM

Seems to have Hugh Hewitt in a state of panic.

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Townhall Defends Romney

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 11:26AM

Matt Lewis writes:

Romney critics are making hay out of Mitt Romney's statement that he "saw" his father march with MLK (of course, he did not literally see him march with King).

Unlike Al Gore and the Clintons, there has not been a significant pattern of Romney exaggerating his personal history or family background.

I'm willing to accept the fact that Romney was speaking figuratively ...

Yeah, I mean, Romney never claimed to be a lifelong hunter or anything.

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Populist Cage Match: Huckabee vs. Rush

Posted by John Tabin on 12.21.07 @ 11:22AM

This is hilarious:

What's the Huckabee universe's take on why Rush Limbaugh does not like the man from Arkansas? I asked a prominent DC-based Huckabee ally:
"Honestly, because Rush doesn't think for himself. That's not necessarily a slap because he's not paid to be a thinker-he's an entertainer. I can't remember the last time that he has veered from the talking points from the DC/Manhattan chattering class. If they were praising Huckabee, he would be too."
Why do I find this so funny? Because attacking the East Coast elite is a standard part of Rush's repertoire; he has in fact pulled it me (he held me up as emblematic of "the Beltway conservatives" who were insufficiently loyal to Tom Delay). If the Huckabee camp thinks they can out-populist Rush friggin' Limbaugh, they're obviously morons, and I'd put a fair amount of money on them blowing it in Iowa.

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Huck With Anti-Catholic Bigot

Posted by Quin Hillyer on 12.21.07 @ 11:16AM

I swore to myself I would not blog today, and that I would try to avoid blogging on Huckabee in particular. But now Kathryn Lopez at National Review drops this bombshell about Huck preaching from the pulpit of an anti-Catholic bigot. Wow. She blows Huck away. Meanwhile, over at the Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Strassel calls Huck an ethical time bomb ready to explode to the GOP's detriment. And other anti-Huck pieces are popping up everywhere, including another one at the WSJ, by the wonderful Peggy Noonan. (Among others blasting Huck today: Ann Coulter.)

I am not sure if a Baptist preacher technically qualifies as a cleric, but, if you readers will allow me a little leeway.... what just about every leader in the Reaganite movement is saying these days is, "Please, won't someone rid us of this pestilent cleric?"

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Marching With Mitt And Martin: Video

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 11:16AM

Dave Freddoso is right--the video of Romney's explanation is even worse. This guy really is "Bill Clinton with his pants up." How stupid does he think people are?

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topics: Bill Clinton

Re: I Sorta

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.21.07 @ 10:48AM

The Globe points out that at one time Romney himself claimed to march with King. "Mitt Romney went a step further in a 1978 interview with the Boston Herald. Talking about the Mormon Church and racial discrimination, he said: 'My father and I marched with Martin Luther King Jr. through the streets of Detroit.' Yesterday, Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom acknowledged that was not true. 'Mitt Romney did not march with Martin Luther King,' he said in an e-mail statement to the Globe." Well, depends on what you mean by "march."

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Re: Rudy's Better Day

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 10:25AM

I'm sure he's thinking, a la Godfather II, "I hope they will have the decency to clear my name with the same publicity with which they have now besmirched it."

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Rudy's Better Day

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.21.07 @ 10:19AM

Not only is he out of the hospital but Rudy got some assistance from an unlikely source yesterday. As Phil noted and Byron York pointed out this a,m. the New York Times seemed to exonerate Rudy of any funny business but Byron also pointed out they did a good job of hiding it. The Rudy folks, not known for their fawning praise of the NY Times, sent the link around in a valiant attempt to push back tabloid journalism. When Drudge and the NY Daily News drive coverage even conservative candidates can find some refuge in real reporting-- with facts and everything.

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topics: Business

NY Times Vindicates Rudy on Security Billing

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.21.07 @ 10:17AM

Giuliani's long-time nemesis, the NY Times, reviews city records and concludes that it is "not likely" that as mayor he tried to hide his visits to Judith Nathan by billing them to obscure government agencies, as implied by last month's Politico story that rocked his campaign.

UPDATE: Another thought. Could Rudy actually find a way to turn this story to his advantage? The new narrative could be that the media try to take down a Republican candidate, the NY Times exonerates him weeks later, after the damage has been done, but buries the story on A35?

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The Iranian Hand in Iraq

Posted by Ilan Berman on 12.21.07 @ 10:14AM

In recent weeks, a number of pundits have pointed to the improving security situation in Iraq as proof positive that Iran has begun scaling back its destabilizing influence in the former Ba'athist state. But is Iran really behaving better? The answer, according to the U.S. military, is "not so much." "There has been no identified decrease in Iranian training and funding of illegal Shi'a militias in Iraq," a new Pentagon report to Congress maintains. "Tehran's support for Shi'a militant groups who attack Coalition and Iraq forces remains a significant impediment to progress towards stabilization."

The full report can be found here. It provides a good measure of our recent successes in Iraq -- as well as the considerable distance that we have left to travel.

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topics: Military, Iraq, Iran

I Sorta 'Saw'

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.21.07 @ 7:47AM

His supporters may need an intervention. But listen, I have my own "figurativelies":

When I practiced law with Justice Roberts... (Well, we were both lawyers, in different cities and never met. Except I saw him at the opera.)
When I told President Bush.... (Well when he's on TV I often do talk back to the screen.)
When I traveled with Margaret Thatcher. ... (Well she traveled a lot when I was in college. She went to Russia and I drove home for the summer but we were simultaneously moving. I think.)
When I was an advisor to Richard Nixon... ( I was in high school and repeatedly advised anyone who would listen that he should resign. I don't think he knew I was advising him but I was!)
UPDATE: Others this morning pile on and add their amusing analogies.

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topics: Law, Russia

NH Poll: Race Narrows

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.21.07 @ 7:12AM

The latest Gallup poll from NH shows: Romney 34%, McCain 27%, Rudy 11%, Huckabee 9% and Paul 9% and Thompson 4%. This confirms what we have seen in other races-- a surge by McCain but not yet a significant drop off for Romney. Even more dramatically this suggests McCain's rise is at Rudy's expense. They may, at least in NH, be appealing to the same pool of voters. If Rudy is moving resources elsewhere and now just "probing" rather than making a push to win there, the result may be the "not Romney"/national security vote coalesces around McCain.

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McCain Gets Into the Christmas Ad Game

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.21.07 @ 12:49AM

Drew Cline transcribes what he calls "the best piece of direct mail I've ever seen."

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Thursday, December 20, 2007

Third Party Candidate

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 11:31PM

How'd we miss this? Cynthia McKinney is running for president. She will no doubt corner the vote with the pro-cop hitting, conspiracy minded set. Or as these folks put it : "Just as Green candidate Ralph Nader is believed to have pulled votes from Al Gore in 2000, McKinney's campaign is expected to siphon support from The A-Team's Mad Dog Murdock and that bird from the Coco Puffs box. "

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Demise Of The UN Track

Posted by Ilan Berman on 12.20.07 @ 11:22PM

The P5+1 (the U.S., England, France, Russia, China and Germany) met again today in an effort to hammer out a third round of sanctions against Iran. Quite predictably, the results have been less than stellar.

Administration officials are attempting to put a positive spin on the diplomatic deadlock. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has called the differences between the parties merely "tactical." The reality of the situation, however, is quite a bit more grim; in the wake of the new NIE, U.S. policy toward Iran is all carrots and no sticks, something that Russia and China - which are two of Iran's key economic and strategic partners - know all too well.

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topics: Iran, Russia

Re: Rudy Out of The Hospital

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 10:49PM

He has cancelled events tomorrow according to a campaign announcement but will apparently be back on the trail Saturday and Sunday. There is quite a bit of grumpy coverage complaining that reporters didn't get more information during the day. Ohhh a "mystery headache." But it does seem they were told all the basic facts: he felt sick, he had a headache, he went to the hospital, they ran tests and he's fine. Maybe we'll find out something very alarming but raising the specter of Tsongas' lymphoma just seems, well, silly. Unfortunately when you put dozens (hundreds?) of bored press people in and around a hospital they are going to get cranky.

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Re: Tancredo Endorses Romney

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 10:36PM

My point: neither Gilchrist nor Tancredo will move any votes of significance. It's nice that more people know who Tancredo is but I doubt anyone who suspects Romney is a squish on immigration issue or has a transparently inconsistent record (as Thompson argued fairly persuasively today) is going to be convinced. Moreover, Tancredo carries some liabilities. Today he seemed to suggest that Romney would be in favor of deporting millions of illegals ("He'll require those who are presently here illegally to return home"). Unless Romney has had a change of heart again I don't think that's his position. If Tancredo is going to actually do any campaigning he'll get asked about stuff like this.
UPDATE: And in Iowa Rep. King who endorsed Thompson probably has the most credibility on immigration.

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topics: Immigration

Re: Tancredo Endorses Romney

Posted by John Tabin on 12.20.07 @ 9:38PM

Jennifer: I don't know how many votes Tancredo swings to Romney (I suspect it's small but -- certainly in the caucuses -- significant). But to suggest that Jim Gilchrist's Huckabee endorsement makes Tancredo's endorsement a "wash" strikes me as misguided, even bordering on daft. Gilchrist is a fairly obscure figure outside of California. Tancredo is pretty securely positioned, thanks to his presidential run, as a prominent spokesman for hardline immigration restrictionism. A quick and dirty measure of their influence:

Google hits for "tom tancredo" = 555,000
Google hits for "thomas tancredo" = 20,900
Tancredo sum = 576,900

Google hits for "jim gilchrist" = 126,000
Google hits for "james gilchrist" = 69,100
Gilchrist sum = 195,100

576,900 / 195,100 = about 2.957 -- in other words, Tancredo is nearly three times better-known than Gilchrist by this measure. (This almost surely understates the disparity, in fact. There are 1.84 million hits for the word "tancredo," almost all of them referring to the congressman, and while there are more for "gilchrist," that name is too common to allow an apples-to-apples comparison -- the vast majority of "gilchrist" hits don't refer to the Minuteman leader.)

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topics: Immigration

Re: Depends

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 8:30PM

One Fox commentator is having a field day, figuratively, with Romney. Others like the Clinton analogy too.

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Re: Tancredo Endorses Romney

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 6:44PM

I'm dubious that Tancredo carries votes with him to Romney. Huckabee has Jim Gilchrist so it seems like a wash in the near term. Moreover, Tancredo's comments ("Look at what has happened to Miami. It has become a Third World country. You just pick it up and take it and move it someplace. You would never know you're in the United States of America. You would certainly say you're in a Third World country." ) and advocacy for stopping legal immigration aren't exactly in tune with Romney's own views or his pitch to voters in Florida and other states.

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topics: Immigration

Boston Herald Endorses McCain

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 5:44PM

You can argue which of a couple candidates fit the bill but you would be hard pressed to quibble about this as a basis for selecting a president: "There are times in this nation's history so perilous that they cry out for a steady, experienced leader, a person so trusted that we would put the fate of this country in his hands." McCain would certainly prefer that as the standard rather than a check the box list of individual policy positions.

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Thompson

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 4:56PM

He may not be a great campaigner but he's a pretty good political analyst.

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Tancredo Endorses Romney

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.20.07 @ 4:09PM

Finally ending the speculation over his "major announcement," Tom Tancredo has dropped out of the Republican presidential race. I've been critical of Tancredo's campaign, but let's give the man his due. When he entered the race, most of the top-tier GOP candidates appeared to at least be open to the comprehensive approach to immigration reform. Now they all claim to favor enforcement first.

More importantly from Tancredo's perspective, Romney, Fred Thompson, and, to a lesser extent, Mike Huckabee have all embraced the attrition through enforcement strategy of dealing with illegal immigration (though Tancredo seems to find Romney's conversion the most persuasive). Given recent polls showing Republican caucus-goers believe immigration is the most important issue, a Tancredo endorsement could help Romney against Huckabee in Iowa.

There's one other candidate who is impacted by Tancredo's departure from the race: Ron Paul. Paul will have now have to beat some top-tier candidates in the early contests to remain viable. When the field was larger, Paul could distinguish himself by finishing in the middle of the pack. But Huckabee's rise into the top tier and the gradual shrinking of the bottom tier has made Paul's job more difficult. He won't have Tancredo, Sam Brownback, or Tommy Thompson to finish in front of anymore.

UPDATE: In his withdrawal announcement, Tancredo listed John McCain and Mike Huckabee as two candidates who would be too soft on immigration enforcement. Not surprising, but it may shed light on why he found it important to endorse Romney.

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topics: Immigration

Depends

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 3:55PM

On what the meaning of "see" is? How Clintonian.

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Three Card Monte

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 3:52PM

The latest Fox poll has the race a three-way toss-up nationally among Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain.

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Rudy Out of the Hospital

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 3:49PM

From Giuliani spokeswoman Katie Levinson:

"Mayor Giuliani is being released from Barnes Jewish Hospital with a clean bill of health. Doctors performed a series of precautionary tests and the results of all the tests were normal. The Mayor is heading back to New York this afternoon and he continues to be in high spirits."

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Do You Blackle?

Posted by Christopher Orlet on 12.20.07 @ 2:51PM

Still using carbon-guzzling Google? Help save the planet by making Blackle your web search home page of choice. Acccording to its Web site Blackle (maybe) saves energy because its screen is predominately black. Remember every silly little thing counts!

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topics: Energy

Drudge Tells Us Who Has 'Mo'

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 2:26PM

It's no secret who has access to the Drudge headline machine. McCain responded to the latest headline directly and through his spokeswoman. What is interesting is that the canon gets pointed at McCain just as he is rising in NH and perhaps elsewhere. Even Club for Growth takes a rest from Huckabee bashing to go after him on the death tax. I think this confirms that McCain is very much in the first tier. Whether Drudge or the NY Times story amounts to anything remains to be seen but if they just give McCain an opportunity to defend his honor by touting his opposition to earmarks, lobbyists and the like it will have backfired, perhaps spectacularly.

UPDATE: Others figure it out too.

UPDATE 2: And good reason for a certain rival to panic as McCain jumps into virtual tie for first nationally in Fox poll. Rudy 20%, Huckabee and McCain 19%, and Romney at 11%. Wow.

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topics: Earmarks

Romney's Blowback Problem

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 2:05PM

Given the candidate's need to keep the candle lit at both ends in Iowa and New Hampshire, in the past hour, the Romney campaign has unleashed a series of attacks on Mike Huckabee (on meth) and John McCain (on taxes). It's hard to dispute the fact that Mitt Romney has run the most negative campaign, and while I believe that there's nothing wrong with trying to criticize your rivals during a heated election battle, clearly there is a certain degree of blowback. And for Romney, one of the effects of negative campaigning has been that it's hard to conceive of a situation under which any of the other top tier candidates endorse him. So far, Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback have dropped out of the race and went on to endorse Rudy Giuliani and McCain, respectively. Giuliani has already said he would be supporting McCain were he not running himself, McCain can barely contain his contempt for Romney, Mike Huckabee has had kind words for both McCain and Giuliani but sharp criticisms for Romney, and Fred Thompson has repeatedly ribbed Romney for being a flip-flopper while holding fire on his old friend McCain. In making the case for Romney in the magaizine's endorsement editorial, the National Review editors argued that he's the candidate in the best position to keep the party together. But will that argument hold if every major candidate who drops out of the race throws their support behind somebody other than Romney?

UPDATE: I now see that Tom Tancredo endorsed Romney today. This development, although a positive for Romney, is not very relevant to my point, since he is neither a top-tier candidate, nor has he been one of the candidates in Romney's crosshairs.

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topics: Taxes, John McCain

Re: ARG

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 12:16PM

The poll also has McCain ahead of Romney in Iowa which I find not so believable ( 8 pt lead for Huckabee is par for the course) but the NH number fits the general sense that McCain can actually pull this out. If so, Iowa won't be the state to end Romney's chances.

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ARG: McCain-Romney Tied in NH

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 12:10PM

More evidence of the McCain surge in the Granite State.

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Re: Iowa Poll

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 11:54AM

If this is an accurate peek, yet another Iowa poll shows: Huckabee 31% (up 1 from same poll last time), Romney 25% (unchanged), Thompson 16% (up 3), McCain 8%( up 3) and Rudy 6% (down 4). Results for the bottom three vary from other recent polling, in particular reflecting a better showing for Thompson. For the top two there seems to be very similar results across multiple polls. Huckabee isn't going to win the blogosphere poll and his record may eventually catch up with his polling, but there is as yet no sign Iowans are souring on him.

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Romney's Red Herring

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 11:03AM

Back in July over at the Politico, I wrote:

There are many drawbacks to Romney's candidacy. But if the media end up framing the election, as Romney-lover Hugh Hewitt has, by asking, "A Mormon in the White House?" it will only help the candidate by distilling criticism to one issue that he can easily swat away by calling for religious tolerance.
Right now, my prediction is looking quite accurate. Chuck Todd writes:
*** Mitt's speech worked; does Obama now need to give one? Despite once leading both Iowa and New Hampshire and spending millions in the process, Romney had never popped in the national polls -- until now. His 20% is a nine-point increase since November. The reason for his movement, of course, has to be the highly publicized speech on faith he gave earlier this month.
The bottom line is that the more the discussion is about his Mormonism rather than his flip-flops, brief and mixed record as governor of Massachusetts, and mandate-laden health care plan, the better it is for Romney.

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topics: Health Care

Accusing Mark Steyn

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.20.07 @ 10:46AM

The Muslim law students who have filed human rights' complaints in Canada against Maclean's for publishing a Mark Steyn article critical of Islam have taken to the pages of the National Post to explain that all they want is equal time. "If Maclean's wants to publish articles alleging that many Muslims are 'hot for jihad,' it has to provide an opportunity to respond," the students argue (emphasis mine). By this logic, everytime Paul Krugman writes something I find idiotic, the NY Times should be legally forced into publishing my response. Making things even more ridiculous, Stanley Kurtz notes that, "What (the students) don't say is that they have demanded the right to a cover story in Maclean's, with full editorial control over content and art." Another irony is that today they were given space in the National Post, a major newspaper in Canada, and instead of, you know, responding, they just whine about how they were never given a chance to respond. What a sad spectacle.

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topics: Islam, Law

A Thompson Surge??

Posted by Quin Hillyer on 12.20.07 @ 9:09AM

Through reporter Tim Carney in Iowa, Robert Novak reports the following (direct quotes from longer report):

Republicans: Huckabee's lead in the polls hardly assures a victory, and this race could change dramatically in the next three weeks.

  1. The "X factor" in this race is former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.). Most Iowa Republicans did not even mention his name in discussing candidates they supported or opposed. He simply does not register in the minds of potential GOP caucus-goers, but when asked about him, voters have little negative to say.
  2. Thompson has far more upside potential than any other Republican, and he is spending the entire final stretch in the Hawkeye State. Thompson has perhaps the most broadly conservative record of any candidate besides the three congressmen (see below). Many conservative Iowans currently settling for Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee (or planning a protest vote of sorts for one of the congressmen) could certainly jump on board with Thompson. If he defies his reputation as a lazy worker, he could make a spectacular surge here.

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Will Naomi Wolf Be Next?

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 8:58AM

Romney is having his share of credibility issues. The Post gets on him about the story we ran on abortion and related comments saying he always stood up for life. Yesterday Andrew Sullivan ran an item suggesting Romney's statements about watching his father march with Martin Luther King, Jr. were wrong. I followed up with Romney spokesman Kevin Madden who directed me to a Business Week article suggesting no, the march really did occur. Well now we learn that Romney in multiple comments on the topic was speaking "figuratively." This runs the risk of taking on an Al Gore like "I invented the internet" quality. Romney persists in going just a tad beyond the facts as we noted yesterday. There is no need other than an insatiable salesmen-like desire to impress for stretching what are basically good facts( e.g. George Romney supported civil rights) into tales of grandeur. Yet he does. (On the "NRA endorsed me" front I'm more sympathetic. It's hard to keep his positions straight and at some point, when he wasn't praising gun control, some group of gun owners likely did support him.)
UPDATE: Others are following the story too but some dwell on the tears. This sort of thing seems to play into McCain's appeal-- you get what you see-- as the anti-Romney in NH.

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topics: Business, Abortion

Iowa Poll

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 7:46AM

CNN's latest confirms the similar ABC poll results from yesterday : Huckabee 33, Romney 25, Rudy 11, McCain and Thompson 9. Several candidates are likely pleased. Huckabee must be delighted after having the entire conservative blogosphere on his case and getting a full load of Romney negative ads to be steady in the lead. Rudy, who has had zero TV ads and is obviously focused elsewhere, I am sure would be happy with a third, and get some welcomed "underlying strength below the surface" stories. Likewise, a respectable showing by McCain would be confirmation that even when he disses ag subsidies he does fine. The numbers yesterday and today suggest problems for Thompson. His ads and stepped up campaigning have yet to bear fruit. He's got a couple weeks to move the number or get his share of "disappointing" headlines.

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Rudy in Hospital

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.20.07 @ 6:59AM

This morning Communications Director Katie Levinson released this: "The symptoms worsened as the day wore on and shortly after taking off from Chesterfield, Missouri, for New York the mayor became uncomfortable enough that our plane returned to the airport in Chesterfield.To be on the safe side, the mayor consulted with his personal physician in New York and made the decision to go to the Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis for routine tests."

Until then Giuliani was having a good, solid day. He picked up an endorsement in NH by the Foster's Daily Democrat and had a full day of campaigning with Kit Bond and accompanying favorable coverage in MO. He had no prior events scheduled today and no word yet if he'll be in NH as planned on Friday.

UPDATE: Levinson: "After precautionary tests the doctors found nothing of concern at this time and Rudy will be going back to New York later today. He is in high spirits and is grateful to the doctors and nurses who checked him out."

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topics: NATO

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Enough Christmas Ads Already

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 11:58PM

Ok, Hillary's Christmas effort is annoying on multiple levels. First, it unintentionally displays what's wrong with liberal thinking: there is an endless supply of "gifts" and goodies we're getting from the government. Swell. In the next ad she can show us the credit card receipt. Second, this is Hillary's idea of charm ? Just repeat the same laundry list of programmatic promises but, I've got, we'll just put them on wrapped gifts-- that's the ticket! No charm, not even a lame effort to go beyond politics and talk about something other her grab bag of spending notions. Hillary really would give policy programs as gifts if she could because her whole persona apparently is politics. At least she didn't drag Bill into a chummy scene around the fireplace. (You can't compete with a family this gorgeous I suppose.)

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Re: Tancredo Out?

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.19.07 @ 10:35PM

Yes.

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Re: Oh The Humanity

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 9:47PM

Earlier today I praised the latest Romney ad. John Podhoretz looks at the facts and says the girl wasn't in any peril and the "he saved my daughter" line is misleading. Well this would be the upteenth example of Romney always having to go a little too far. Had the ad been about his compassion, leadership and tenacity in organizing the search that would have been beyond dispute. He of course at the time had no way of knowing what the girl's situation was and should be credited with the effort. But that was not good enough because he is in his "humanity" push. He needed the dad in a quaking voice to not just say "I will never forget the effort by Romney," but to go one step beyond the facts and say Romney "saved" his daughter. Why not leave good enough alone? It's politics, everyone wants to look good, etc. But for a guy with a veracity and slick salesman issue this may not have been such a good idea.

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Poll Irony

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 9:19PM

For months the Romney folks said : "National polls don't matter. There is no national primary. Look at the early state polls." I still don't know whether they were right then or should be pleased now but the situation is in some respects reversed for their campaign from six or twelve months ago. In the RCP national averages Romney is in third, his best standing ever and within single digits of Giuliani who barely holds on for the lead. If you look at the trends in the chart Rudy and Thompson are heading down while Romney and Huckabee are headed up. If you think national polls really do mean something after all then there is some evidence that we are heading for a Huckabee vs. Romney face off. But what about the early state theory? For months Romney held commanding leads in NH and Iowa. Now, if we look at Iowa Huckabee is up 5.5 points in the RCP averge although the trends show narrowing between Romney and Huckabee. Others are so far behind the order of finish may be irrelevent. In New Hampshire Romney is 11 pts up but the chart shows McCain making a striking run and beginning to narrow the gap. Again, others (including a sliding Rudy) lag far behind. Moving on to South Carolina, Huckabee leads by almost 7 pts in RCP and again his trend is up, up, up. Romney has had an uptick and the others lag. So what's it all mean? If Romney loses in Iowa and NH do the national poll numbers mean anything? If Romney pulls out Iowa and NH he's in good shape, if not, he may be out (figuratively only since his money will last forever). If McCain beats expectations in Iowa and wins NH he may be the man to beat. If Huckabee wins Iowa, places well in NH and wins SC he's going to be hard to beat. Rudy? Chaos, divison and mixed results are his best shot --along with the hope that Huckaboom fades and security reemerges as a top concern. His best result may be Huckabee winning big in Iowa, Romney knocking out McCain in NH although not impressively, a close race in SC and a general sense that among those heading into Florida and February 5 none but he has foreign policy chops to deal with the world's bad guys. That may be the proverbial inside straight. For now, watch the NH poll numbers because that state will either save Romney, give McCain his lift, keep Huckabee in play, doom Rudy -- or maybe some combination of these. After awhile it's like figuring out the wildcard playoff spots ( If Cleveland loses to Minnesota, but Green Bay beats Dallas...).

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topics: Foreign Policy

WSJ/NBC: Rudy-Romney Tied Nationally

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.19.07 @ 7:34PM

More bad news for Giuliani, and great news for Romney. Huckabee is close behind.

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Tancredo Out?

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.19.07 @ 6:27PM

Tom Tancredo has scheduled a major announcement about his campaign for tomorrow. Given his place in the polls, some are speculating that he will drop out. Marc Ambinder is suggesting that an endorsement of Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney is possible. Or perhaps, given Tancredo's unpredictability, his announcement will be about something else entirely.

I've written about Tancredo's failure to do better as a presidential candidate, even as he draws his opponents closer to his immigration positions. Shawn recently wrote about him being a nice guy.

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topics: Immigration

McCain

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 3:59PM

No Santa ad for him. Instead we have this. Now if McCain does make the comeback of the year (the decade?) he might point to this week as a turning point. One poll has him third in Iowa, he is getting traction in NH and the plaudits from the pundits continue to roll in. He has the benefit of playing strongly in early states where within days someone's momentum can be halted or voters suddenly say "Isn't there anyone else"? He has the benefit of less glaring policy faults than Huckabee (on foreign policy most clearly) and less baggage than Romney (on policy reversals and doubts about conviction). He is certainly working hard unlike well... you know who. If at the beginning of the primary season he seemed old news or grouchy he now might seem like a breath of fresh air from the religion war that has consumed a couple of weeks. He has significant policy differences with some in the base and he has a serious money problems but who can doubt that he has a shot at the nomination?

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topics: Foreign Policy, Religion

Re: Rudy and Santa

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 3:43PM

Then there are the naughty and nice jokes. This explains there are actually multiple versions and "Merry Christmas" is included. Rudy is not one of those politicians who dresses down to ingratiate themselves with the masses so the most striking thing about the ad, I thought, was the "sweater look." It works!

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Democratic Fabricators....

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.19.07 @ 3:04PM

...use extremely misleading quoting methods to try and make the New Hampshire Union Leader out to have said something it didn't.

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McCain: Gen. Petraeus Should Have Been Time POY

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.19.07 @ 2:33PM

John McCain said on a recently concluded conference call with bloggers that Gen. Petraeus should have been named Time's Person of the Year rather than Vladamir Putin.

Of the Russian elections, McCain said, "We knew a puppet show was going on, but we didn't know who the puppet was."

In the call, McCain sounded more upbeat than he has in a long time. He joked that while all year he has dismissed polls as "bogus, and terrible, and unreliable," now that they are improving for him, he said that he now believes we should "take them as gospel truth."

In seriousness, he said that that this is a very volatile election in which there wasn't a designated successor and a lot of voters still haven't made up their minds.

He said of his rivals that, "I can out-campaign any of these people." He noted a boost in turnout and enthusiasm in his town hall meetings, and an "uptick" in fundraising which has enabled him to take out ads in South Carolina. I asked him about the $3 million line of credit his campaign took out, and specifically what was used as collateral. He said he only knew that a bank was willing to extend the loan to the campaign (not to him personally), but did not know the specifics of the agreement.

[McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker called me afterword to add that the loan was secured with "campaign assets" rather than against potential federal matching funds, and that the campaign was in "full compliance" with FEC law. The significance of this is that in the past, the FEC has ruled that using potential federal matching funds to secure a loan locks a candidate into the public financing system. Hazelbaker would not specify which "campaign assets" were used to obtain the loan.]

McCain also dismissed talk of a brokered convention, saying that he believed the nomination battle would follow the pattern of every one since 1980 -- that whoever wins two of the first three contests, would go on to win the nomination. McCain was encouraged by this morning's Rasmussen poll in Iowa showing him up to 14 percent, and now plans to spend some time there as well as New Hampsire and South Carolina.

As for the Huckabee surge, McCain said it reinforced the volatility of the race, since three weeks ago he wouldn't have been considered among the top candidates. Like Rudy Giuliani, McCain benefits from Huckabee beating Romney in Iowa, so it wasn't surprising that he took the opportunity to compliment Huckabee who he said he has gotten to know over the course of the campaign. McCain said Huckabee is doing well because he comes across as the "sincere, decent person that I think he is."

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topics: John McCain, Law, Russia

South Carolina Ain't the Hawkeye State

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.19.07 @ 2:33PM

Over at NRO, Jim Geraghty has a smart piece on the differences between the heavily evangelical states of Iowa and South Carolina. Iowa is more populist, less hawkish, and and more receptive to candidates who emphasize social issues while South Carolina has a religious right that is more divided, more integrated into the party establishment, and more hawkish on issues of national defense.

Some of this is slightly oversimplified, but it is definitely true that Iowa has tended to be where socially conservative candidates have peaked while South Carolina is where the party establishment has circled the wagons against insurgent candidates. Since 1988, S.C. is essentially where George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George W. Bush won the GOP nomination, while Iowa has been the best state for Pat Robertson, Alan Keyes (and Steve Forbes), and, if present trends continue, possibly Mike Huckabee.

There is a socially conservative majority to be had in South Carolina. It will be interesting to see if Huckabee succeeds where Pats Robertson and Buchanan failed.

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Re: Rudy and Santa

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.19.07 @ 2:15PM

Wait until someone comes out with the negative ad attacking Giuiani's record of trying to make the Yuletide gay.

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"Sometimes...A Few Drinks and a Dido Record"

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.19.07 @ 1:40PM

Michael Brendan Dougherty looks at the left's big beef with Enemy of Real Freedom Ron Paul.

Could we be facing the Forced Pregnancy Presidency?

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Going Over Better Than A Le(a)d Zeppelin

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.19.07 @ 12:30PM

The press releases coming out of the Ron Paul Blimp camp have been consistently amusing. I noted the PR 101 lesson last week, and today we have a note on the blimp's visit to Washington, D.C.:

Due to the no-fly zone restrictions the blimp will not be able to fly within 15 miles of the White House. We would like to assure the public that the blimp is not a threat to national security, only to other Republican presidential candidates.

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Where There's Smoke

Posted by Reid Collins on 12.19.07 @ 12:07PM

Interesting scene from Old Executive Office Building fire this morning. Fireman inside is viewed from outside smashing panes of large window, and finally destroying the entire window frame, after which smoke is seen pouring forth, the fire having been sufficiently aerated by the now-open window area.

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Poll:McCain Surges in NH;IA a Mitt-Huck Dead Heat

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.19.07 @ 12:01PM

We've given a lot of discussion to the validity of Rasmussen robo-polls, but this latest New Hampshire one provides us with some evidence that a McCain surge is underway--he's closed into with 4 points of Romney 31-27, with Giuliani way back in third place at 13, Huckabee at 11, Paul at 7, and Thompson at 3.

In Iowa, Huckabee and Romney are virtually tied at 28 to 27, with McCain a strong third at 14, Giuliani and Thompson tied at 8, and Paul at 6.

Needless to say, in both cases, great news for McCain and more bad news for Rudy.

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No Kid, No Comeback

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.19.07 @ 10:58AM

David Weigel is a skeptic of the McCain comeback meme.

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Oh the humanity!

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 10:41AM

"I'm a normal person. I have emotions." Hillary? No, Romney. Yes, we've had a few days of misting up on the trail and efforts to humanize a candidate not known for reaching out and touching people. Not very effective and smacks of rank manipulation (yeah, who'd have thought in the middle of a campaign?). But this is one heck of an ad and does something that I and many have been suggesting for awhile: show something in his business background that convinces people he has the personal attributes and skills to be president. Probably his most effective ad yet.

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topics: Business

Rudy and Santa

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 10:24AM

A very nice mix of levity and issues in his Christmas ad. He's got Santa but goes the "Happy Holidays" route. But with no "floating cross" or mention of the Savior how's he going to convince people he's qualified to be president?

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NH Push Polling Investigation

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.19.07 @ 9:58AM

The Union Leader has an update on the investigation into the anti-Mormon calls placed in November. According to New Hampshire's deputy attorney general, "Bud" Fitch, the state's ban on so-called push polls does not apply to the primary, only the general election, so the investigation will hinge on whether the language used in the poll asked who somebody would vote for for president, rather than just the nomination.

Meanwhile, there is a separate batch of anti-McCain and pro-Huckabee calls being made in the state, by an outside Virginia-based non-profit group led by Patrick Davis. Davis said the calls will continue, even though Huckabee himself has asked for them to stop.

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A Cultural Difference to Celebrate?

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.19.07 @ 9:11AM

Unicef has got a sick sense of humor, as Karol notes at Alarming News this morning.

UPDATE: Eh, on further investigation the disturbing picture is meant to highlight a bad practice. Unicef, I apologize.

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Polls

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 8:49AM

The latest from NH has : Romney 34( plus 2), McCain 22 (plus 3), Rudy 16( down 3), Huckabee 10( plus 1), and Paul 5 (minus 2). The McCain folks are delighted-- showing a distancing from Rudy and a mild bump in their own numbers. For now, however, Romney can take some comfort in his lead ( but will it survive two more weeks of the Union Leader and an Iowa loss)?

Meanwhile, Huckaboon and Rudy woes continue in national polling.

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Union Leader

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.19.07 @ 6:48AM

The Union Leader which endorsed McCain goes after Romney on immigration, saying he "shouldn't have to lie." If you have a respected home town paper not only echoing your themes but amplifying them (I don't think McCain himself ever said Romney was "lying") it sure does make your job easier.

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topics: Immigration

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Re: Rumor Has It

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 10:41PM

How refreshing to have a good sex scandal. War, trade, entitlement reform, tax policy -- enough already. Sex and religion. That's the way to decide the next leader of the free world. And if rumor is true does Obama benefit, scooping up the "anybody but Hillary vote"? Or is the new "personally revealing" ( ok, ok another mental image please) Hillary going to capture the scorned women's vote?

UPDATE: And for those of you boring folks who think we should be choosing candidates based on hokey things like good judgment, this is further evidence that there are alternatives out there.

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topics: Trade, Religion

Ya Think?

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 10:33PM

Insightful headline of the day is here.

UPDATE: You just can't make this stuff up. (Rather than the NY Times tag it should be renamed the Stuart Smalley tour: "Because I am good enough, I am smart enough, and gosh darn it, people like me.")

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Re: White (Album) Christmas

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.18.07 @ 9:49PM

"If we are so politically correct in this country that a person can't say enough of the nonsense with the political attack ads could we pause for a few days and say Merry Christmas to each other then we're really, really in trouble as a country," Huckabee said.

Translation: If I actually have to withstand the scrutiny of other candidates and the media during the run-up to the caucus my preening, endlessly self-congratulatory campaign for the presidency might really, really be in trouble.

If a pause in campaigning means I won't have to listen to this sort of gag-inducing I'm not campaigning! campaigning I'm all for it.

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Rumor Has It

Posted by John Tabin on 12.18.07 @ 9:18PM

"At least two news outlets are preparing to break new details" on the story the National Enquirer printed a few months ago alleging that John Edwards cheated on his wife with campaign volunteer Rielle Hunter, says Daniel Radosh.

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I'm Dreaming of a White(Album) Christmas

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 8:24PM

Huckabee is just really good, maybe better than anyone on the nonpolicy, communication part of campaigning. Religious and conservative voters and those who fancy themselves as culturally hip (yeah, people who use "hip" and remember the White Album, aren't ) will all find something to like in this. Listen, the better campaigner doesn't always win, but he often does.

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The Week Ahead

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 7:41PM

Rudy will spend Wednesday in Missouri (Feb 5 state), Friday-Sunday in NH and the 26th-28th in Florida. He returns to Iowa on the 28th. That says it all: make a run at NH but lock down Florida. Iowa is not high on the priority list. For Huckabee and Romney you can imagine a reversed list of priorities-- do what ever they can in Iowa, divert some time to NH and the rest is just not at the top of the list. The Iowa expectations game is in full swing: Will Romney declare anything less than 15 pts is a win? Is a close third for Thompson "really" a win? In this regard the voters are a lot more sane than pundits -- a win is a win and a win by a big margin is a big win. Everything else is a loss and the magnitude just makes it more embarassing.

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Rack Up Delegates or Bolt

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.18.07 @ 6:00PM

Ross Douthat has some advice for Ron Paul, the $18 million man: Try out the early states and see if you do well enough to win some delegates. If yes, keep running in order to influence the Republican nomination process. If no, take the money and run -- to the Libertarian Party. It's different than the advice I would give, but it's interesting in light of Paul's new flexibility on the third-party question.

Douthat has advice for the other Republican contenders as well.

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NH Mail Wars

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 4:20PM

Lots of talk of ad wars in Iowa but below the radar screen (at least the TV screen) in NH McCain is getting tough with his mailer on Romney's flip flopping. By making the specific issues into a global "trust" issue McCain tries to play to his strength-- character, integrity -- and raise the attacks on Romney to a new level. On one hand the mailer focuses on immigration but it really attempts to make a larger point. As we saw with Rudy, it is hard when you get bogged down in he said/he said and whether statements from one year are really in conflict with those from another, or just a shift in tone. McCain tries to get beyond that and makes a basic argument about character. So far Romney's lead in NH remains solid but McCain will try to put a dent in that lead and pull an upset which, if not for Huckabee in Iowa, would be the story of the race.
UPDATE: Meanwhile Romney goes after everyone in SC in front of a his first crowd of a busy day of 30(?!) people.

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topics: Immigration

Paging Senator Byrd

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 4:03PM

Next time someone says Labor (meaning unions, the guys who do the work don't get the capital "L") is on the side of the good guys, recall that their time and money( deducted from the hard earned wages of their members) often is spent on stunts like this. Not only is the SEIU's delaying tactics on the sale of this West Virginia business costing a "big company" money -- it's taking money out of the state pension plan which is there for benefit of course of actual employees. Charming.

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topics: Business, Unions

Romney's Secret Weapon In Iowa

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.18.07 @ 3:25PM

Soren Dayton crunches the numbers, and argues that the 22,500 Mormons in Iowa make Mitt Romney's position in the state stronger than at first glance.

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Evangelical Identity Politics

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.18.07 @ 3:10PM

Here's a column I wrote about evangelicals practicing identity politics after Harriet Miers's Supreme Court nomination was pulled.

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topics: Supreme Court

Re: K-LO Hits the Mark

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.18.07 @ 1:58PM

It seems to me that the larger problem is one of evangelical identity politics -- a certain number of evangelicals starting to view themselves as an identity/interest group rather than voters with concerns about particular issues. It was on display during the Harriet Miers debacle, when supporters of her nomination used her faith as a reason conservatives should trust her. It's a helpful trend for Mike Huckabee, but less so for evangelicals and their conservative allies.

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Re: K-LO Hits The Mark

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 1:20PM

I agree with both her and Quin on Huckabee's excesses. Only Fred Thompson (told ya he was growing on me) so far in this race had the nerve not to feign religious observance for the sake of political brownie points. (Doesn't go to church much and he's fine with that.) The Speech by Romney could have been used to draw some appropriate lines but it did not. What purpose does a line like " I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind" serve in a political speech? Ramesh Ponnuru and others were not nitpicking when they pointed out that the omission of nonbelievers in The Speech was a "tell" - a sign this was not about religious tolerance but an attempt by Romney to bond with a particular religious group. In short, I am NOT defending Huckabee in this regard; I am simply observing he is not the only candidate to try this approach and supporters of all candidates should discourage these sorts of stunts for the reasons KLO and Quin mentions.

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Rudy's Florida Woes

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.18.07 @ 12:20PM

It's not just Rasmussen. SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision are also out with new polls showing Giuliani's lead evaporating in Florida. Though these polls don't have him trailing (as Rasmussen did), his long-standing double digit lead is now just 5 points in SurveyUSA and 4 points in Strategic Vision. Needless to say, this is a most unwelcome development for Giuliani, as winning in Florida was a central part of his strategy. If his lead cannot withstand a Huckabee surge in December, how will it survive going 0-4 in the major nominating contests in January? No doubt, this is the most wild and unpredictable GOP primary season in decades, so anything can happen, and in a few weeks we could be writing about a much different narrative. But right now, things aren't looking good for "America's Mayor."

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Pejman for Fred

Posted by Quin Hillyer on 12.18.07 @ 12:15PM

The always thoughtful, learned, conservative Pejman Yousefzadeh, writing at RedState, makes quite a pitch for Fred Thompson. (He also quotes me, kindly, but that is not why I provide this link. I provide it because of its thoroughness and thoughtfulness. As I have done all year, he notes that Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and even John McCain have much to recommend them to conservatives. Along with Thompson and Duncan Hunter, I think they comprise the BEST GOP field since at least 1988 and probably since 1980. But I digress.) Read it and see what you think.

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topics: John McCain

K-Lo Hits the Mark

Posted by Quin Hillyer on 12.18.07 @ 11:58AM

In this column, Kathryn Lopez absolutely nails her subject. She writes that Mike Huckabee is playing divider rather than uniter on all sorts of issues, ESPECIALLY religion. Kathryn is, of course, no liberal. And she is a devout Christian (as her columns make clear). But there can be no doubt that Mike Huckabee is crossing lines that should not be crossed.

Now, what follows is not K-Lo talking (read her excellent column for yourself), but me launching from her column...: I think that no matter how politically and tonally brilliant is Huckabee's "Christmas" ad, it is a horribly cynical use of Christianity for overtly political purposes. Pretending to offer an escape from politics, it is instead purely and entirely political ad, deliberately designed to use Christianity to gain votes. If Huckabee is so eager to wish Iowans a merry Christmas, why is this the first time he has ever done so? This is a candidate cleverly using overtly religious symbolism to gain votes. It makes me sick.

Now, to understand where I am coming from, let it be said that I am a devout and conservative Christian. I absolutely reject the idea that the Constitution constructs a "wall of separation" between religion and government. I wholeheartedly believe that religion and religious references are not constitutionally barred from the public square. I believe prayers are appropriate at official events by goverment officials in times of great moment or crisis. I believe that there is nothing wrong with using religious language or references to unify the public.

But none of this is what Huck is doing. What he is doing is trying to win votes by stressing his Christianity (and, hint, hint, making a contrast between his own Christianity and the less orthodox [small 'o'] faith of certain of his opponents), in a way that claims to be doing otherwise.

The real problem with earlier governmental establishments of religion is not that religion threatened government, but that government threatened religion (especially those that were NOT the ones being established). By so overtly inserting religion into a political campaign, you also open that religion up to being attacked in the political process as well -- and when you make religion central to politics, you open a Pandora's box that puts faith at risk of state sanction. This is dangerous stuff.

Not to be trite, but there was a reason why Jesus made the distinction between what was to be rendered to Caesar and what should be rendered to Gog. Huckabee is blurring that distinction... and NOT to the benefit of Christianity. Look at it this way: With this ad, is Huck putting himself at the service of Christianity, or is he using his Christianity to serve himself? The answer is, quite obviously, the latter. Huck is for Huck is for Huck. And Christians who want to protect their faith from cynical politicians ought not to let Huck hijack it.

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topics: Religion, Constitution

"A Nation Will Be Redeemed"

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.18.07 @ 11:18AM

John Edwards, action movie star, Wyatt Earp wannabe and...absolute ham.

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Re: Romney's Planned Parenthood Event

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.18.07 @ 11:12AM

[Former Massachusetts Planned Parenthood President] Ms. Gamble says that she and others understand that politicians do change views on abortion but says: "What's disturbing in Mitt Romney's case is that he makes the switch at exactly the most politically opportune time. That is what is worrisome."

Ah, yes, I'm sure if Romney had his change of heart on abortion a few years earlier the magnanimous Ms. Gamble would now be defending the former Massachusetts governor in the reluctant-yet-principled manner her famed organization is so well known for. Please. This is an absolute joke. I wonder how "worrisome" Ms. Gamble found the politically expedient conversions of Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Jesse Jackson and Ted Kennedy underwent from pro-life to pro-choice? Maybe just a smidgen less, is my guess.

Seriously, though, Jennifer, congratulations on getting Gamble, apparently our new moral arbiter of conservatism, away from what was probably a busy morning of filling out Choice on Earth holiday cards to take a whack at Romney.

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topics: Bill Clinton, Abortion, Conservatism

Romney Attended Planned Parenthood Event

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 10:54AM

Mitt Romney was fully aware of a $150 donation to Planned Parenthood made by check in his wife's name and indeed himself attended the Massachusetts Planned Parenthood fundraising event in 1994 in connection with the donation, according to former Massachusetts Planned Parenthood President Nicki Nicholas Gamble. This contradicts previous statements by the Romney campaign.

In April of this year ABC news reported that Romney's wife Ann had made a $150 donation to Planned Parenthood in 1994. The story reported that Romney spokesman Kevin Madden contended that " an internal review of Romney's personal records has not turned up any instances in which Romney, a Massachusetts Republican, himself sent money to groups that supported expanded abortion rights." Madden also said that "he did not know whether the former governor was aware of the donation, but he noted that Romney had been publicly committed to upholding a woman's right to an abortion until late 2004." In August ABC reported that Mrs. Romney said "I don't even remember writing the check."

In fact Romney personally attended the Planned Parenthood event in question on June 12, 1994. Gamble, the President of Massachsuetts Planned Parenthood in 1994, also attended the event at the home of a Republican, Eleanor Bleakie, the sister-in-law of a Planned Parenthood Board member. Both Romney and Michael Kennedy, who appeared on behalf of nephew of Ted Kennedy, attended the event. Ms. Gamble says that it would have be routine to invite pro-choice candidates currently seeking office. Checks were solicited both on the invitation and at the event. Romney and his wife bo
th attended and the check written in Mrs. Romney's name was one of those donations made in response to the fundraising appeal. At the afternoon event, Romney discussed with Ms. Gamble his then pro-choice views and commitment to Roe v. Wade. Ms. Gamble says that she and others understand that politicians do change views on abortion but says: "What's disturbing in Mitt Romney's case is that he makes the switch at exactly the most politically opportune time. That is what is worrisome."
Messages to Romney spokesmen seeking comment were not immediately returned.

UPDATE: Romney Spokesman Kevin Madden responds that Romney when asked earlier in the year had no recollection of the check or the event and still does not. He indicated that since Romney was pro-choice in 1994 it would have been logical for him to attend such an event but even with the photo does not recall his attendance at this particular gathering. View photo

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topics: Abortion, Law

Anarchists and Methodists Together

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.18.07 @ 10:53AM

Baltimore anarchists are rallying to aid a United Methodist congregation with a transsexual pastor, the Institute on Religion and Democracy reports. Somehow I don't think transsexual anarcho-communist-Methodism will catch on.

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topics: Religion

Conservative Student Not Attacked

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.18.07 @ 10:48AM

I'd meant to post yesterday on the strange story of a socially conservative Princeton student who was allegedly beaten unconcious for his views on premarital sex and same-sex marriage. Both are no doubt unpopular positions on most college campuses, but it just seemed odd. Apparently, the student in question has now admitted that the attacks were a hoax.

We've had enough liberal campus hoaxes like this in recent years, hopefully conservatives aren't going to make it a habit as well.

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Huckabee Wins (the day)

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.18.07 @ 7:20AM

Campaigns often talk about "winning" the day or winning the news cycle. There's little doubt Huckabee came out on top in the last 24 hours. When your opponents' endorsers are swooning over your, not his, ad it's been a good day. Huckabee wins the battle of the ads among conservative commentators and MSM analysts kvell. Meanwhile, Romney is finding coverage rougher and is pulling a page from the playbook of the Clinton( Bill's and now Hillary's) -- getting misty eyed. ( I'd get misty eyed too if I spent $8M, or whatever the total is up to now, to find myself trailing Huckabee and hearing footsteps from Thompson.)

UPDATE: It really must be part of a new Iowa former frontrunner routine?

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Monday, December 17, 2007

Rudy Leads in Gallup

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 6:09PM

Team Rudy is pleased by a new poll showing him leading by 11 points nationally. The Rudy folks have been maintaining a very constant response to the December poll news: we've been through the booms before, the second place guy has shifted but we are still on top. This is a little evidence to bolster that line at a time when there is much second and third and fourth guessing about the "Florida to February 5" strategy. (Hey, if Romney loses Iowa big he'll also be saying it doesn't matter.) More importantly, Florida at least to date, has closely followed national poll numbers( makes sense since it's a diverse state with losts of transplants from other places) so they will be hoping this is a sign the Sunshine state will hold firm.

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Social Conservatism Survives

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.17.07 @ 6:08PM

In the current Weekly Standard, Jeffrey Bell argues that social conservatism isn't dead yet. I tend to agree.

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topics: Conservatism

Pastors vs. CEOs

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.17.07 @ 6:01PM

An interesting article, in Mother Jones of all places, on Iowa's Romney-Huckabee divide. I haven't talked to many Iowans myself this cycle but the sentiments the author, Jonathan Stein, describes sound like the kinds of things I'm hearing from other Republicans elsewhere.

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Duck-a-Huck

Posted by The Prowler on 12.17.07 @ 5:45PM

Interesting side note to the odd landscape that is shaping up in Iowa - continued internal Romney talk that their candidate continues to flail in the polls, Thompson internally talking up the possibility of surpassing lowered expectations, McCain feeling rejuvenated and possibly jumping into the fray.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is refusing to let his staff put his name forward as a guest with Tim Russert on "Meet the Press." "There is no way he'll do it without at least two weeks of prep time and we can't do that now," says a new arrival to Team Huckabee in Iowa. "He's focused on winning Iowa, note playing 'gotcha' and being embarrassed on 'Meet'."

Russert is believed to have wanted Huckabee for the 23rd or 30th, but has been put off.

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Omnibusting

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 5:38PM

The Heritage Foundation has launched a new site "to track the pork projects, policy riders and budget gimmicks in the mammoth omnibus spending bill."

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Re: NH AG Report

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 5:31PM

Actually Jennifer, I spoke to the New Hampshire AG's office today, and was told that they hope to make an announcement before the primary.

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NH AG Report

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 5:13PM

Others are asking where is the report on the now weeks long investigation of the anti-Mormon calls. When I talked to the AG's office a few weeks back they expressed the view that it was not a priority to reach a conclusion before the primary. While no stone should be left unturned in the search for truth and the political calendar should not drive the result the reputation of the NH AG's office would certainly be enhanced by a prompt resolution that can answer basic questions like : was the law broken and by whom? Rushing an investigation to make news before a primary would be entirely inappropriate but so would needlessly delaying its conclusion. Voters and the candidates need to feel that the legal system did its job in a timely and fair manner.

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topics: Law

Re: Romney Ad

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 4:48PM

Huckabee put out a long response (tip: The first line of these should always begin "In a desperate attempt to...") which Phil details below. Not a bad response if accurate. He appropriately does raise the interesting topic some of us have asked: Why did Romney never grant a single pardon? Well Anthony Circosta would like to know too.

UPDATE: From a GOP operative not associated with either Romney or Huckabee comes this observation: "The contrast between the warmth of Gov. Huckabee's latest ad and the shrillness of the Romney attack ad is stark. The former reflects a relaxed, confident, almost content figure. The latter is the ad of a desperate politician with everything riding on Iowa. Coupled with his weird emotionalism and cavalier disregard for the facts on Meet the Press, Gov. Romney is looking less presidential by the minute." Another pipes up: "Mitt Romney is attacking on crime? This is like Hillary Clinton attacking on universal health care, or John Edwards attacking on expensive haircuts. I don't think he has much credibility on this one."

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topics: Health Care, Hillary Clinton

Huckabee Responds to Romney Ad

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 4:44PM

The Huckabee campaign just issued a response to the Romney ad.

First, on meth:  

In a new attack ad released today, Governor Romney attempts to contrast his position on drugs with that of Governor Huckabee. The ad says that Romney got "Tough on Drugs Like Meth," while Governor Huckabee "Reduced Penalties for Manufacturing Meth." What Romney fails to mention is that -- even with the reductions -- Governor Huckabee was tougher on methamphetamine manufacturers than Governor Romney was. 

--- The "reduced penalty" in Arkansas was a requirement that meth manufacturers serve 50 percent of their sentence rather than 70 percent before being eligible for parole. In Arkansas, the average meth dealer spends an average of 10 years in prison.

--In contrast, the source quoted in the Romney ad that claimed Romney "got tough" on drugs notes, "The punishment would be either 2 1/2 years in jail or five years in prison."

On the clemency issue, the Huckabee campaign responds that:

The ad also states that Romney "never pardoned a single criminal."  But this begs the question:  how many clemency cases did he actually review while he was governor of Massachusetts?  Or did he simply avoid his responsibility as chief executive of the state to review clemency cases and give petitioners a fair hearing?  

The campaign also goes onto argue that, in contrast, Huckabee took his clemency duties seriously, and reviewed 8,698 applications during his 10 ½ years in office, denying 88 percent of them.  

Also:

During the 10 ½ years Mike Huckabee was governor the number of government agencies and businesses that conducted background checks increased at an incredible rate. The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001, have resulted in increased concerns regarding security. Potential job candidates and long-time employees considered for promotion are under increased scrutiny.

Before the mainstream use of background checks, most people could have some youthful arrest, change their lives and become good, tax-paying citizens without that earlier arrest coming back to haunt them.

Governor Huckabee found during his time in office that each year the number of people needing clemency to clear their record increased. Denying their request prevented them from continuing to earn a good living and pay taxes. The majority of the clemency requests he granted were for this reason.

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topics: Taxes, Business

Re: Romney Ad

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 4:33PM

I thought the ad went off on a bizarre tangent by saying that Romney "got tough on drugs like meth." True, I'm quite libertarian when it comes to the drug war, but still, it seems like an odd diversion.

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Prudent Pessimism

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.17.07 @ 4:16PM

Whatever you do, don't cheer up a lawyer.

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topics: Law

What's the Non-Christmas Version?

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 4:14PM

Romney is up with a negative attack ad-- taking on Huckabee's crime record. What this tells me is he is down, and down so big it's worthwhile to run a no holds barred spot like this, at Christmas no less. The contrast with the Huckabee ad Phil posted on could not be greater. Steffen Schmidt, political guru at Iowa State University, who I asked about the ad says simply that Romney is in "disarray" in Iowa. The danger is that this type of ad, and image of a flailing candidate, affects his chances elsewhere.

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Holding the Lines

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.17.07 @ 3:42PM

Paul Sands uses some new Congressional Budget Office numbers and what he describes as his "mad Gnuplot skillz" to further deconstruct the profound misunderstandings/representations of our nation's ever-expanding army of class warriors.

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The IQ Farm

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.17.07 @ 3:13PM

Robert VerBruggen catches Malcolm Gladwell in an all-too-easy fudge.

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Re: Romney's Quiet Boomlet

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 2:04PM

It's not just in New Hampshire. Nationally, Romney has ticked up and is now polling consistently in the mid-teens. Huckabee's rise may be hurting Romney's electoral chances, but it isn't coming directly at Romney's expense.

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Huckabee's Christmas Ad

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 1:51PM

Mike Huckabee will be launching a new ad in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina tomorrow called "What Really Matters." I think it's a strong one. In the Christmas-themed ad, Huckabee dons a sweater, and comes across as warm and likable and says he empathizes with voters who are sick of hearing political ads. "At this time of year, sometimes it's nice to pull aside from all of that," he says. It's a nice way of communicating an above the fray image, and subtly suggesting that voters should tune out the negative attacks that are being directed at him, especially in Iowa. He also reinforces his shared values with the base of voters who he is trying to appeal to. "What really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ and being with our family and our friends." I think this is also indicative, in a larger sense, of the type of ads we can expect to see given the campaign for Iowa is entering its final stretch during Christmas season. As Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen put it at a panel I attended recently, "You can't air attack ads with 'Silent Night' playing in the background."

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Big Government, Big Business, Best Friends

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.17.07 @ 1:27PM

Tim Carney takes John Edwards to task for claiming that corporate "special interests" are consistent foes of regulation.

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Romney's Quiet Boomlet

Posted by John Tabin on 12.17.07 @ 12:24PM

There's been a lot of chatter recently about McCain making a comeback in New Hampshire, and understandably -- McCain has risen into a statistical tie for second place with Giuliani. What's less been less widely noted is that Romney's lead in New Hampshire has been growing. You can see it clearly in the Pollster.com graph. What it looks like to me is that the McCain boom is actually a Giuliani bust -- for whatever reason, Rudy's numbers are falling, and McCain and Romney are both benefiting. That's good for McCain, of course, but it's even better for Romney.

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Re: Don't Deceive the Inspectors

Posted by John Tabin on 12.17.07 @ 12:20PM

If Hillary won't allow robust and intrusive inspections, will the Israelis resort to airstrikes?

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topics: Israel

Don't Deceive the Inspectors

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.17.07 @ 11:54AM

I didn't mind when Barack Obama used the kick the tires and check under the hood metaphors during the Des Moines Register debate last week. But did Hillary really have to invite Iowans to "inspect" her?

"You can look inside my mouth if you want," Mrs. Clinton said. No, thanks. That's quite alright -- I think I'll pass.

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topics: Barack Obama

You Don't Always Get What You Pay For

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 11:41AM

This listing of the nubmer of ad spots each candidate has run is an eye opener. Notice Huckabee isn't even on the list. To Phil's point, it also may explain Rudy's December. If you are invisible on the air, you're not going to hold your own in the polls for very long. (Even Ron Paul is ahead of him in ad spots.) At some point there must be diminishing returns (the 18,000th ad for Romney doesn't have as much impact as the first few thousand, I would imagine) but it suggests that Huckabee and others may still have room to boost their recognition and appeal.

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Belligerent in Baku

Posted by Ilan Berman on 12.17.07 @ 11:38AM

Last week, I passed along the news that the Azeri government had convicted more than a dozen militants for plotting a coup to overthrow the government of president Ilham Aliyev with the help of Iranian security services. Now comes word that those radicals might have been doing a bit more than simply seeking governmental change in Baku. From the Associated Press yesterday: "Azerbaijan's security agency said Saturday that 15 people convicted this week of treason had passed information on U.S., British and Israeli activities in the ex-Soviet republic to Iranian intelligence… The National Security Ministry gave new details about the group, which allegedly passed to Iranian agents details on Western embassies, companies, pipeline operations and employees operating in Azerbaijan from 2005 to 2006." Lovely.

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topics: Iran, Israel

Re: Spinning Against Robo-Polls

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 11:37AM

John, I will say that thus far this year, Rasmussen has had the most volatile results of the major polling companies based on my observations. I cannot say whether that is due to robotic calling or because it has a different sampling technique. (Though given my own frustration when I call customer service somewhere and get an automated operator, I can definitely see robo-calls being problematic.) My issue with the Rasmussen Florida poll showing Giuliani in third place, 8 points behind Mike Huckabee, is that it is wildly at odds with every other recent poll I've seen showing Giuliani with a comfortable, double-digit, lead in the state. So while I wouldn't dismiss the Rasmussen poll out of hand, I wouldn't allow this one poll to uproot what months of polling has told me about the state of play in Florida. If there are several other polls that come out with similar findings, that's another story.

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Way Out on a Limb

Posted by Quin Hillyer on 12.17.07 @ 11:34AM

Way, way back in the long ago days of February, I suggested that "The fully frontloaded system replaces not the slow unfolding of primary and caucus states common through, say, 1976, but an already semi-frontloaded system instead. It is the latter, the semi, that produced overly quick ends to the nomination battles -- but the fully frontloaded system may do just the opposite.... RATHER THAN PROVIDING UNSTOPPABLE momentum to any one candidate, in other words, the widespread voting on Feb. 5 could serve to keep all three "major" candidates and even a couple of minor ones alive. Nobody could claim a mandate, the vitriol would continue to grow, and the dissatisfaction already being voiced by conservatives might take on pandemic proportions."

The idea of a national convention that actually decides something was very much in my mind.

Anyway, I am still seeing this as a real possibility. Here's the deal: the two big-money, big-organization candidates, Giuliani and Romney, are doing slow fades. On the other hand, because they have such combinations of money, organization, and name ID, they are likely to keep fighting for quite a while.

Meanwhile, the other three "front runners" COULD all stay alive, and could actually emerge from South Carolina into what looks (falsely) like ONLY a three-way battle, with the Rudy-Romney show apparently dead. Here's how:

Huckabee wins Iowa, but all the well-deserved attacks on him finally start to sink in, so his victory margin isn't very large. Finishing a stronger-than-expected second by picking up votes from a fading Romney and a stumbling Huckabee, while benefiting greatly from the endorsement of Rep. Steve King, is Fred Thompson. In New Hampshire, McCain wins with Romney second. In South Carolina, Thompson ekes out a close win over Huck, with McCain a strong third. (Nevada will also have gone to McCain, perhaps.)

THEN, pray tell, who is the front-runner? Nobody. All three candidates will have done well in two out of three contests. All three will be strong enough to fight another day.

But - AHA -- Florida awaits, with Giuliani suddenly being able to say, hey, I TOLD you that nothing would be solved by the first three big contests, so Florida IS indeed relevant -- and, Floridians, here is your chance to put YOUR stamp on things by going for me and finally showing those three early states that they have had the spotlight and power for far too long.....

And so on, with ebbs and flows and rises and falls throughout the winter and spring. Even Ron Paul will win a state, perhaps (Alaska).

You heard it here first.

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topics: Alaska

Romney's King Folly

Posted by The Prowler on 12.17.07 @ 11:26AM

Team Romney was doing a bit more than hoping. In Iowa, Romney's campaign was promising reporters a "major" endorsement today from Congressman King. Our guess is that now, that endorsement -- to Thompson -- is just a blip on the radar screen.

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You Are There: The Ron Paul Revolution

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 11:21AM

Dave Weigel was an eyewitness to history, having attended a Ron Paul Tea Party last night, "where Paul supporters wrote the names of government agencies or programs on boxes, threw them on the ground (dubbed the 'Potomac'), and smashed them to bits."

For those keeping score, after yesterday's record haul, Paul is at $18.2 million for the fourth quarter as of this writing.

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Spinning Against Robo-Polls

Posted by John Tabin on 12.17.07 @ 11:04AM

Larry Thornberry reports that the Giuliani camp is responding to Rasmussen's poll showing a Huckabee lead in Florida by questioning Rasmussen's methodology. This is deeply unconvincing. The perception that robo-pollsters are less accurate isn't backed by sound data; automated pollsters have performed very well in the past. I'm not even sure there's an intuitively sensible theory as to why automated polls should be more prone to error. (Thornberry's comment that he'd hang up on a recording is inapposite. People hang up on live pollsters, too, and it shouldn't matter unless there's a specific demographic or ideological trait that corresponds more to hanging up on one than on the other.)

There's a very good chance that the poll in question is an outlier. To be precise: The margin of error is +/- 4 points with a 95% confidence level, which means that we can expect that, in one out of twenty polls taken with this same method, the margin of error will not hold -- that is, the error will be greater than +/- 4 points. But that's true whether a poll is automated or not. After all, the Giuliani camp surely isn't prepared to dismiss the (also automated) SurveyUSA poll, which showed them way ahead in Florida a couple weeks ago.

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Drunks and Stamp Collectors

Posted by Shawn Macomber on 12.17.07 @ 10:52AM

Is Michael Savage, that infamous wayward playmate of Allen Ginsberg and maxed-out Jerry Brown contributor, about to play a role in a small and stupid bit of primary politics in New Hampshire? Are we finally to get to the bottom of this Santa Claus debate? All Signs Point to Yes, says my pal Dan Tuohy from the ground in the Granite State. Is it too late to make a plea for Iowa Polite in New Hampshire?

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Rudy's December Slump

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 10:51AM

A number of reasons have been given for Rudy Giuliani's sagging poll numbers. Some have mentioned the decline of national security as an issue, last week I brought up Hillary Clinton's loss of inevitability, and obviously the flurry of NYPD security stories couldn't have helped. All of these are valid reasons. But I think another explanation is that we're already seeing the perils of Giuliani's early state strategy. For months, due to his celebrity and national frontrunner status, Giuliani was dominating media coverage for good (taking on the NY Times, Clinton and MoveOn in defense of Gen. Petraeus) or ill (answering his cell phone at the NRA). But in the last month, media attention has shifted from focusing on the national frontrunner to those doing battle in the early states, even though they have a lower celebrity profile. Because Giuliani isn't a factor in those states, he has been boxed out of media coverage, and even his major speech this Saturday was overshadowed by the Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney rivalry in Iowa, and John McCain's potential for a surge in New Hampshire. It's not only affecting the type of coverage he can get, but also removes him from debates that would be helpful to him. For instance, if he were in the mix in Iowa right now, Giuliani could be contrasting his fiscal and tough-on-crime record with Huckabee's fiscal record and penchant for granting clemencies to violent criminals. When Huckabee came out and accused Bush of having an "arrogant bunker mentaility" and called for talking to Iran like they were a parent or friend who hasn't been spoken to in awhile, it normally would have been perfect fodder for Giuliani to go after him and bring the discussion back to his strength--national security. But because he isn't competitive in Iowa, he needs Huckabee to take down Romney, and thus has to sit on the sidelines. Instead, Romney was the one who took the oppourtunity to defend President Bush and mock Huckabee's foreign policy statements. By waiting until Florida rolls around, Giuliani may find himself crowded out of the race, with difficulty getting any ink. And his fate will be largely out of his control. His success is now very much determined by variables outside of his control--the early states being split in a favorable way for him, or a major news event that somehow changes the nature of the debate in the race.

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topics: Foreign Policy, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Iran

Re: Fred's Opening

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 10:41AM

Iowa Congressman Steve King, a champion on the issue of illegal immigration, just endorsed Thompson -- throwing the Romney folks who somehow were convinced the nod was going to their guy. Woops.

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topics: Immigration

Re: Fred's Opening

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 10:08AM

I think Fred Thompson would probably need a surprise second place showing in Iowa and a subsequent Huckabee collapse to turn this thing around. Finishing third in a field in which Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are essentially not competing in the state I don't think will provide the necessary boost to convince people he's for real. Also, Huckabee's rise has come at the expense of Thompson more than anybody else. Should the Huckaboom turn out to be a Huckabubble, Thompson will be the most likely to benefit when it pops. Given that Thompson has remained in the mix in South Carolina even as he has faded elsewhere, should Huckabee make an early exit, Thompson would be the favorite to win there. There's no doubt that a lot of Republicans were dying to get behind Thompson, but many lost hope that he would take off. Should he have a late surge in Iowa, he may be able to convince people he's viable again, and we could get a second Fredboom in January.

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topics: John McCain

Just Like he Planned?

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.17.07 @ 8:34AM

It isn't hard to find fault with Thompson's campaign effort and goodness knows I found my share of faults. It is easy to roll out the "what a disappointment" stories, but in some ways the race is conforming to the premise of Thompson's run. The other fellows one by one are proving either not very conservative (bashing Bush on Iraq, defending healthcare mandates, etc.) or not very likable. He is both, he contends. Yes, Huckaboom is in full swing and barring a significant event in the next couple of weeks, he will win Iowa. But beyond that, Huckabee's views may just not fit the base's desire to escape compassionate conservatism. If Romney (who never had a Mittboom) indeed loses Iowa and can't win decisively in his own backyard the field narrows further. Then the consensus, all- purpose conservative who has grown slowly as the sober, non-annoying choice becomes quite viable.( Not being annoying is a vastly underrated quality in politics.) Yes, others must fail for him to succeed but that was in some sense the "plan" all along. It would certainly help to stay out of malls and on the trail but his campaign is becoming more focused (the email research delivery service is in high gear) and he has the opportunity to exceed expectations with a strong third place in Iowa. I wouldn't be writing him off quite yet.
UPDATE: Psst, guys --I'm not sure you want to be raising expectations for a second place finish. (Unless they have polling we don't, there is no reason to be setting up third as a disappointing result.)

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topics: Iraq, Conservatism

Re: Speaking of the NFL

Posted by Paul Chesser on 12.17.07 @ 6:34AM

Did anyone notice that the New England Patriots will go 6-0 in their division if they can manage to defeat the 1-13 Miami Dolphins next weekend?

Bill Belichick did.

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topics: Sports

Ron Paul Money Bomb, Nuclear Edition

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.17.07 @ 12:23AM

With December 16 now behind us, it's looking like Ron Paul raised north of $6 million in a single day, far above his previous Nov. 5 haul. Assuming these numbers hold up, it would set a new record. Paul's total for the quarter is just a hair shy of $18 million. He's now almost certain to lead the GOP fundraising race for Q4, and may even best the Democrats as well. Meanwhile, on our main site, Shawn Macomber reports on the huge crowds Paul is drawing in Iowa.

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Sunday, December 16, 2007

Final MTP Thoughts

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 10:35PM

Lots of folks are picking through the MTP interview but one exchange stands out. He was asked about running as a moderate against Kennedy. The sequence is long but you can read it for yourself. He repeatedly rejects the "premise" that he ran in 1994 or in 2002 as anything other than a rock ribbed conservative. If you have spent any time studying those races, watching the debates or reading press accounts you know that's just hooey. Not even Romney claimed at the time to be a conservative. The quotes are now familiar-- and all from him:

"I Am A Fiscal Conservative And A Social Moderate." (2002)

"I Was An Independent During The Time Of Reagan-Bush. I'm Not Trying To Return To Reagan-Bush." (1994)

"I don't know that the world is pining for a progressive-on-social-issues governor of Massachusetts." (2002)
After some badgering by Russert today on the issue of his change in position on federal employment legislation to ban discrimination against gays Romney finally said this: "If you're looking for someone who's never changed any positions on any policies, than I'm not your guy." Given the voluminous public record nicely preserved for all of us via Google and YouTube, it's unclear why he hasn't been more candid on all of this and just come right out and said: "I was trying to get elected in Massachusetts for goodness sakes" or "I really have changed on a bunch of issues in the last few years." It is the pretense of consistency that is so unsettling. Does he not remember or he thinks we're too dim to "look it up"?

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Never Mind

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 8:35PM

Romney fessed up -- no NRA endorsement.
On the subject of fees and taxes a pre-The Note Rick Klein reported in 2003: "A survey of states grappling with spending crises has found that Massachusetts imposed more fee hikes than any other state in the nation this year - at least $500 million. Governor Mitt Romney and the Legislature, faced with a multibillion dollar shortfall, made it more expensive to get a marriage license or a divorce, file a court case, buy a house, renew a driver's license, or tap into a host of other state services. The governor points out that he helped avoid a broad-based tax increase and says the targeted fee increases for specific services. But taxpayers still feel the bite, even if it's not in the form of taxes. 'I'm not surprised we're number one,'said state Representative Paul C. Casey, a Winchester Democrat and chairman of the House taxation committee. 'Our approach was to hit every fee in sight.'" Taxpayers didn't buy the distinction between taxes and fees according to the report: "But fiscal watchdog groups say the avoidance of taxes in Massachusetts was driven by political considerations and didn't take into account the best way to pay for essential state services. Many of the fee hikes enacted this year raise money for general state operations, not a particular service, leading an outside budget analyst to complain that their broad impact means they're essentially taxes disguised under less offensive names. 'These are just indiscriminate, broad-based fee increases because of a reluctance to raise taxes,' said Michael J. Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. 'It's been disingenuous to say there's no new taxes, in the sense that there's very little connection to the fee increases and the cost of services that the fees are supposed to represent.'" Groups like Citizens for Limited Taxation at the time were similarly suspicion about the distinction. Maybe at the next debate in NH the moderator can ask for a show of hands on a "No Tax --or Fee" pledge.
UPDATE: More evidence the Thompson Team is getting into fighting form.

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topics: Taxes

New Hamsphire Appeal

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 4:48PM

If there were not an active Democratic primary with a candidate like Obama who is very attractive to Independents I think the Lieberman endorsement would be huge. As it is, it keeps McCain in the news and does give him a "rise above the fray" sense. He is not presently at the center of many of these day to day fights between candidates. While Romney and Huckabee are tied down in Iowa he can roam NH free from incoming fire.

Romney is not so lucky. The tax and fee issues may be one that follows him alfter today. From a rival camp that seems willing to make hay, at least for now: "Mitt Romney's explanation on increasing fees by hundreds of millions of dollars was completely disingenuous. Not only did he raise fees more than any other state, but many were in fact broad-based and nothing more than a back door to increasing taxes. Who knows how many more flip-flops and contradictions we would have heard if Meet the Press had gone on another hour."

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topics: Taxes

Speaking of the NFL

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 4:14PM

Congrats to Brett Favre for breaking Dan Marino's all-time passing yards record.

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New Hampshire Wild Card

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 4:13PM

The Iowa caucuses fall on a Thursday (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary is on the following Tuesday (Jan. 8). Sandwiched between those two dates will be a frenzy of campaigning in the Granite State. But there's a problem. That weekend also happens to be NFL wildcard weekend--arguably the best football weekend of the year. How much attention will be paid to the candidates when there will be 4 playoff games to watch?

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Re: McCain and Lieberman

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 3:57PM

It will make the Brooks-Broder crowd swoon, for sure, but it should be intersting to see how it is greeted in New Hampshire. It could help McCain make the pitch to independents, and combined with his endorsement by the Union Leader, reinforce the idea that he is the one Republican who can appeal to everybody and win in a general election. Also worth noting that Lieberman came in a distant fifth in the 2004 New Hampshire primary.

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Lieberman to Endorse McCain?

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.16.07 @ 3:25PM

The Weekly Standard is reporting that Joe Lieberman will endorse John McCain tomorrow.

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There's A Reason People Give Ron Paul Money

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 3:06PM

Russert asked Romney today: "Mitt Romney runs for president. Healthcare plan. No mandate. No conversation about health insurance, auto insurance. No fine if you don't sign up. Why, if it's good for Massachusetts and it's working in Massachusetts, wouldn't you apply it to the rest of the country." Romney responded: " I would." Pressed again on whether he would favor a mandate (presumably for individuals) Romney said: "I think it's a good model for other states. Maybe not every state, but most. And so what I'd do at the federal level is give to every state the same kind of flexibility we got from the federal government, as well as some carrots and sticks to actually get all their citizens insured. And I think a lot of states will choose what we did. I wouldn't tell them they have to do our plan. Governor Schwarzenegger, for instance, in California, has his own healthcare plan. He's going about it in a different way. I like mine better than his; he likes his better than mine." This is why Ron Paul will get 10% of the NH vote. For those who believe in free markets, who don't think the government --whether Hillary led at the federal government or Arnold/Romney led at the state level -- should be bludgeoning the population into buying healthcare it is disturbing to see a Republican blithely pushing this sort of thinking. Simply put: it's worse when the federal government does it (there's no escaping it then) but mandates at the state level aren't something Republicans should be encouraging. Republicans should be the ones cautioning against coercion, pointing out the costs associated with state written insurance plans(which is what results from a mandate) and favoring interstate insurance sales which break down state mischief making. For a party sick of "compassionate conservatism" I don't see anyone rushing to fill the "good ole grumpy conservative" niche, saying "no" to individual and employer mandates and explaining that "free markets" and "individual choice" are not buzz words but should have real application in policy choices.

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topics: Conservatism

Re: Romney on NRA in 2002

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 1:22PM

"I also was pleased to have the support of the NRA when I ran for governor," is what Romney said on Russert this morning.

Further Jennifer's post, I just did a Nexis search and it yielded no results indicating any such support.

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Sierra's fecal molds

Posted by Christopher Orlet on 12.16.07 @ 1:07PM

What is it about artists and two-year-olds that they are so obsessed with doodie?

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Ron Paul Exceeds Q4 Fundraising Goal

Posted by W. James Antle, III on 12.16.07 @ 1:03PM

In the midst of his supporters' Boston Tea Party "money bomb," Ron Paul has raised over $14 million this quarter. This exceeds their goal by more than $2 million, with much of the day left to go and 15 days left in the quarter.

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Bob Kerrey Endorses Clinton

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 12:52PM

First the Register, now Kerrey. Friends in the media and the party jump into the water to rescue a foundering Hillary Clinton.

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topics: Hillary Clinton

Mitt Says NRA Endorsed Him In 2002. But Did They?

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 12:39PM

Romney today said the NRA backed him in 2002. I think this is not correct. In 2002 he said in a debate with Shannon O'Brien "We do have tough gun laws in Massachusetts; I support them. I won't chip away at them; I believe they protect us and provide for our safety." I found it hard to believe the NRA would support someone with that viewpoint. Indeed, the NRA grading sheet from 2002 shows no endorsement and gives both he and his opponent a "B" which is defined for a candidate hasn't held office as someone " who may have made some statements or taken positions against the NRA on some issues." I have not received any response to my inquiry to the Romney camp on this.

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topics: Law

Thompson Pounces

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 12:22PM

Hard to conjure up that image but it's true. Thomspon sends out an e-mail blast taking issue with Romney's statement today on MTP that "every piece of legislation which came to my desk in the coming years as a Governor, I came down on the side of preserving the sanctity of life." The "fact check" includes this:

"Romney's health care legislation provides taxpayer-funded abortions for a co-pay of just $50. Romney vetoed EIGHT provisions in his health care bill that he deemed objectionable, including the expansion of dental benefits to Medicaid recipients. He did not veto Planned Parenthoods' guaranteed position on the Advisory Board or ensure that abortions were covered only in medically necessary situations (as required by MA court ruling). All abortions are covered in the Commonwealth Care program with no medically necessary limitation. Under the program, abortions are available for a copay of $50...

Romney included in his health care legislation a guarantee that Planned Parenthood would have a representative on his MassHealth Payment Policy Advisory Board. No such provision was included for a pro-life representative. ...

Romney forced private Catholic hospitals to provide the morning-after-pill, a position applauded by Democrats and pro-abortions groups. .."
More interesting than even the substance of this is the fact that Thompson is becoming more focused in his attacks on Romney. After a long period of silence we now have two consecutive days of challenging Romney's conservative bona fides.

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topics: Health Care, Medicaid, Abortion

Re: Romney Meets Russert

Posted by Philip Klein on 12.16.07 @ 12:22PM

I just got finished watching Mitt Romney's performance on "Meet the Press." There wasn't much of major news value, which is good news for Romney, but those who watched who haven't been following the election that closely thus far got a crash course in the staggering number of issues Romney has altered or reversed his prior positions on. Romney may be helped by the fact that Tim Russert spent the first chunk of the interview discussing religion, which will probably grab all of the headlines and overshadow some of the other noteworthy things.

Here are some points I found interesting:

--On abortion, Romney said before he faced a decision on embryo destruction as governor, the issue was purely "theoretical." But that's clearly contradicted by the fact that in 1994 and 2002 Romney's explanation for why he was pro-choice was that a family friend died of an illegal abortion. The death of a family friend is "theoretical"? Also, I thought it was odd that he said he believes from a "political perspective" that life believes at conception. I can understand believing that life begins at conception from a moral, religious, or scientific standpoint. But for him to say "political perspective" is almost an unintended acknowledgement on his part that his views on abortion are driven by political calculations.

--On guns, he may have gotten himself in trouble, in an attempt to diffuse the flip-flop label, by standing by his support for the Brady Bill and the 1994 assault weapons ban. He even said he would have signed an extension of the assault weapons ban when it expired in 2004. He also employed the odd phrase "weapons of unusual lethality" to describe the type of guns he would ban.

--On immigration, Romney was utterly Clintonian. He said that when in November 2005 he described the Bush/McCain approach to immigration as "reasonable" and "quite different" from amnesty, he wasn't endorsing the proposal, but just describing it. He hadn't formulated his own position on immigration at the time. That's right up there with Hillary Clinton saying in the debate that she didn't say she supported driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, but she just said that a proposal to do so "makes sense." Even if we were to get into the Christmas spirit and be extraordinarily generous by granting Romney that an elected official saying pending legislation is "reasonable" doesn't constitute support for the legislation, it still doesn't get him off the hook. His description of the proposal was that it was "quite different" from amnesty, and yet during this year he has ceaselessly leveled attacks on McCain by accusing him of supporting "amnesty." So even being generous to Romney, this constitutes a major change in position, not just from some long ago Senate race in 1994, but from late 2005.

--On health care, I thought it was noteworthy that Romney hopes other states will follow the Massachusetts model so that insurance will be mandated nationwide (even if it isn't by the federal government). So philosophically, he still holds out hope that every American will be forced to purchase health insurance, but he just thinks that personal liberty should be violated on a state-by-state basis.

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topics: Health Care, Hillary Clinton, Religion, Abortion, Immigration

Mugged By Reality (In Asia)

Posted by Ilan Berman on 12.16.07 @ 11:56AM

Earlier this year, as part of its diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea, the Bush administration pledged to remove the DPRK from the State Department's list of terrorist-sponsoring nations. But now, a new study by the Congressional Research Service could make that commitment somewhat difficult to carry out, to put it mildly. "The State Department’s long-standing claim that North Korea 'was not known to have sponsored any terrorist acts since 1987' was particularly important in 2007 in view of the clear goal... to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism," says the CRS study, released on December 11th. "However, questions about the credibility of the claim are relevant in view of the appearance of reports from reputable sources that North Korea has provided arms and possibly training to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka.”

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topics: North Korea

Romney on MTP

Posted by Jennifer Rubin on 12.16.07 @ 11:33AM

Russert spent a bit of time on religion. Romney did as well as you could expect and said he'd have no problem putting a nonbeliever on the Supreme Court. My sense is he'd rather not be talking about this topic but this is what inevitably flows in the post-Speech environment. Russert marched through the flip flop issues. (On these you either buy each individual explanation or you sit back, look at the totality of the shifts and say "no way.") Romney did acknowledge that although he believes life begins at conception he would not ban use of so-called surplus embryos for stem cell research although he wouldn't use tax money. The trickiest part for him was Russert's effect questioning on Romney's no tax pledge as a candidate for governor. He has contended he kept the pledge although he raised hundreds of millions in fees and loophole closings. Romney fenced for a bit but conceded: "A fee could be called a tax. I'm not trying to hide the fact. We raised fees $240 million." Lo and behold this winds up in my inbox to illustrate the point. Whether Romney's rivals will make a big deal of it, especially in "Live Free or Die"/ No Tax NH, remains to be seen. Russert also grilled him on his criticism of Huckabee's "bunker mentality" remark, noting that Romney called Iraq "a mess." Romney said it wasn't the same thing. On this point I think Romney made the wrong argument against Huckabee. The issue is not what Huckabee thinks or says about Bush, it's what Huckabee thinks himself. Like the line-item veto argument Romney tends to go for a less central issue rather than the jugular. Finally, Romney gave a rather wishy-washy "I hope so" when asked if we was going to beat Huckabee in Iowa. Not exactly the big boost people need to encourage them to get out on caucus night.

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topics: Religion, Environment, Supreme Court, Iraq

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