- Jan 7–13 14–20 21–27 28–31
- Feb 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–28
- Mar 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–31
- Apr 1–7 8–14 15–21 22–28 29–30
- May 1–5 6–12 13–19 20–26 27–31
- Jun 1–2 3–9 10–16 17–23 24–30
- Jul 1–7 8–14 15–21 22–28 29–31
- Aug 1–4 5–11 12–18 19–25 26–31
- Sep 1 2–8 9–15 16–22 23–29 30
- Oct 1–6 7–13 14–20 21–27 28–31
- Nov 1–3 4–10 11–17 18–24 25–30
- Dec 1 2–8 9–15 16–22 23–29 30–31
Saturday, November 24, 2007
No Good
Posted by on 11.24.07 @ 5:46PM
Commercial considerations aside, how can we continue to call the day after Thanksgiving "Black Friday," while the day of Christ's crucifixion remains "Good Friday"?
Any wonder our children think we're crazy?
Romney Spokesman Comments
Posted by on 11.24.07 @ 12:05PM
2. According to a press release at the time Gov. Romney touted the appointment and identified her as one example of his effort to select women for the bench. a) How does this square with yesterday's comments that Gov. Romney was not specifically responsible for this appointment? b) In retrospect should Gov Romney have placed so much emphasis on finding women per se for the bench?
3. What would he say to the father of the murdered child who has blamed him for the appointment?
Bashar al-Assad has Poked You
Posted by on 11.24.07 @ 8:57AM
The "Don't block FACEBOOK In SYRIA !!" group has over a thousand members at the moment, and deserves more.
Howard Out in Oz
Posted by on 11.24.07 @ 8:08AM
"Australia will miss this bloke more than it knows," says Tim Blair.
Romney Touted Appointment of Judge
Posted by on 11.24.07 @ 7:33AM
Yesterday Romney spokesman denied he was really the motivating force behind of appointment of Judge Kathe Tuttman who released killer Daniel Tavares despite objections of prosecutors. The Fox report yesterday says : "Madden said this process of judicial appointment - one that did not disclose the nominee's name to Romney - shows this case is not similar to the weekend prison furlough program former presidential candidate and Democratic Gov. Michael Dukakis maintained in Massachusetts." However, it appears that at the time Romney knew exactly who he was nominating and bragged about it as part of his push to hire women to the bench. In 2006 Romney sent out a press release crowing about his his initial appointment of Tuttman to the trial as "part of the the largest number of female candidates brought forward at one time." This information was pretty easy to find- part of Womenforromney.com.
"MITT ROMNEY
GOVERNOR
KERRY HEALEY
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
April 26, 2006
CONTACT:
Eric Fehrnstrom
Corbie Kiernan
(617) 725-4025
ROMNEY NOMINATES FOUR WOMEN TO JUDICIARY
Governor Mitt Romney announced today that he has nominated four women to serve as judges in the Massachusetts trial court system, the largest number of female candidates ever brought forward at one time.
Romney has made the appointment of women to the state's courts a priority, and recently asked his Judicial Nominating Council to bring forward the names of more female and minority applicants. If these four women are all confirmed by the Governor's Council, women will represent 36% of the appointments made by Romney for judicial office, which includes judges and clerk magistrate positions.
'I am pleased with the outstanding qualifications of the individuals I have nominated to the bench,' Romney said. 'They have the capability, the qualifications and the experience to be fair and balanced jurists.'
Nominated were:
* Kathe M. Tuttman of Andover, as Associate Justice of the
Superior Court;
* Tracy L. Lyons of Marblehead, as Associate Justice of the
Brighton division of the Boston Municipal Court;
* Therese M. Wright of West Barnstable, as Associate Justice of the
Edgartown District Court; and,
* Merita A. Hopkins of Boston, as Associate Justice of the Superior
Court.
Tuttman has served as an Assistant District Attorney in the Essex County District Attorney's Office since 1989. During that time, she has held various positions, including Director of the Family Crimes and Sexual Assault Unit, Superior Court Prosecutor and Lead Prosecutor for Lawrence District Court's Domestic Violence Unit. She has also served on the Pediatric Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner Advisory Group for the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
Tuttman graduated with a bachelor's degree from Brandeis University in 1974 and received her law degree from Suffolk University Law School, cum laude, in 1988."
According to this, Romney caved to pressure to dig up more women nominees when women's grouped complained about lack of "diversity". Aside from this example of affirmative action gone horridly astray, the notion that he so easily fell prey to the drumbeat of groups mouthing classic interest group politics should raise concerns.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Not Me, Really
Posted by on 11.23.07 @ 11:18PM
Aussie Elections
Posted by on 11.23.07 @ 2:15PM
Australian Prime Minister John Howard is going into tomorrow's elections as the underdog. John O'Sullivan has some thoughts (registration required) as to what a Liberal Party setback will -- and won't -- mean.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
The Last Holiday for Grown-ups
Posted by on 11.22.07 @ 2:52PM
If, for some reason, you are surfing the Net instead of basting a turkey or mashing potatoes, I recommend Joseph Epstein's piece on WSJ Online.
Happy Thanksgiving
Posted by on 11.22.07 @ 2:36PM
Yes, it's quiet here today -- we can't all be like Glenn Reynolds, who somehow manages to simultaneously cook and blog. If you haven't already, sink your teeth into the several holiday-themed morsels you'll find on the front page.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Re: Romney v. Giuliani
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 10:53PM
I think James' point is especially true given the enormous commitment Romney made to Iowa. If he spent $5-7M and logged hundreds of "Ask Mitt" meetings just to get the equivalent of the "All I got from my trips to Iowa was a 4 pt win over Huckabee" t-shirt, you can bet the media will play Huckabee as the David to Romney's Goliath. This was perhaps inevitable given Romney's decision to pour huge resources into Iowa and "run up the score" in the polls. And we should keep in mind a similar tightening of the race may occur in NH as Rudy's ads and McCain's full court press register with voters. If Romney narrowly edges Huckabee and wins by a less than overwhelming margin in his own backyard are these tsunami creating events which will carry him to wins in SC and on February 5? Maybe. For now, team Romney is likely in a sweat having postulated the primacy of the early primaries only to see Huckabee within striking range.
Re: Romney vs. Giuliani
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 9:40PM
I agree that Romney and Giuliani are the two candidates with the most credible paths to the nomination. I also don't see why winning the first three or four contests by something other than a landslide margin would be a bigger liability for Romney than potentially placing no better than third in any of them would be for Giuliani.
But there is a context in which second-place finishers will matter. The very same people who don't regularly check RealClearPolitics polling averages are the most likely to get their sense of how the presidential race is going from the news media. If Romney just barely edges out Mike Huckabee in Iowa, Huckabee is going to be the story coming out of the caucuses. That will allow the former Arkansas governor to steal at least some of Romney's momentum from that win, although I'm skeptical that Huckabee has either the funding or the organization to build on an Iowa bounce.
There are plenty of precedents for this, although most of them admittedly pertain to New Hampshire rather than Iowa. LBJ actually beat Eugene McCarthy in the 1968 primary, just as Edmund Muskie won in 1972 and Paul Tsongas twenty years later. On the Republican side in 1992, George H.W. Bush beat Pat Buchanan by 16 points. Yet none of them are really remembered as "winners" after losing the expectations game -- and losing the news cycle. It is a potential problem for Romney (just as maintaining that 16-point Florida lead will be a potential problem for Giuliani if the frontrunner opens with a series of third- and fourth-place primary showings).
Great V-P Choice -- Would be Good Prez, Too
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 5:17PM
Note the phenomenally low unemployment numbers in Alabama. To a huge extent, the success is the result of the leadership of one man: Gov. Bob Riley. He has run a tight ship and an ethical one, and has been a tireless worker. He would make an excellent V-P nominee for Giuliani or Romney or McCain. Frankly, it's a shame he isn't running for president. He even looks a bit like Ronald Reagan, and he is a genuinely good and decent human being as well. Just sayin', ya' know?
Romney vs. Giuliani
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 4:23PM
John Podhoretz correctly notes that Mitt and Rudy are the only candidates with a viable path to the nomination. But I don't really buy his argument that Giuliani is better-positioned for victory:
In all three states where Romney is leading, he is facing distinct challenges. Huckabee is gaining on him in Iowa. McCain has advanced in New Hampshire even as Giuliani has faded some. And he is in a statistical dead heat in South Carolina with Giuliani and Thompson.Frankly, I just don't think the second-place finishers are going to matter that much. I think we political junkies have a tendency to underestimate how much Romney's early success is going to surprise normal people who don't check the RealClearPolitics poll averages every day. Floridians aren't used to living in an early primary state, and thus aren't in the habit of paying attention this long before the election. Romney's place in the January news cycle is going to be worth quite a bit of momentum. Giuliani can overcome this, especially with a New Hampshire upset, but right now I'd rather be in Romney's position.Under these conditions, Romney might win in all three, but do so in a less than commanding fashion that allows the media to focus attention on those who come in second - Huckabee, McCain, and even Giuliani. After all, the only time a win isn't a win is in primary politics. (Quick - which Democrat won New Hampshire in 1992? No, it wasn't Bill Clinton, the self-declared "Comeback Kid." It was Paul Tsongas.)
Meanwhile, Giuliani still leads by an average of 16 points in Florida. If he wins there, he erases every advantage Romney might have attained, including a delegate lead. And heads into the big primary as the name in the headlines.
Related: Two good Weekly Standard profiles by Fred Barnes and Matt Continetti, on Romney and Giuliani, respectively.
A New Approach for Democrats?
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 4:21PM
Maybe the economy is too good? Well, no, of course not. Still, this paragraph in a recent Wall Street Journal article, "Wave of Home Invasions Put Wealthy On Alert," made me giggle a bit.
One reason for the rise in home invasions is demographic: The numbers of rich people with homes to plunder has risen fast in recent years.
Heat on Huck
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 4:00PM
Now the Politico does a good job providing a compendium of Gov. Mike Huckabee's controversies over ethics. An entirely neutral observer might ask: Is this really what the Republican Party needs to be dealing with in the wake of an election lost in significant part because of ethics problems (Abramoff, etc.)?
Re: The Latest on Those Calls
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 1:25PM
Paulists of the World, Unite
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 12:49PM
A great write-up of Ron Paul's supporters by Stephen Dinan in the Washington Times, providing plenty of ammunition for Paul fans and critics alike. I especially liked the bit about the two white liberals backing Obama trying to convince the black Paul supporter that her candidate is a racist.
The Latest on Those Calls
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 7:56AM
Iowa
Posted by on 11.21.07 @ 12:24AM
Huckabee within 4 in Washington Post/ABC poll. It also shows Thompson moving up to third. I think the latest poll says several things(aside from the obvious that Huckabee is indeed competitive). First, the stepped up attacks on Huckabee on his economic record ( from candidates and third party groups) at this stage seem to be having no effect. Either the arguments haven't permeated locally yet or voters don't care or Huckabee has successfully deflected them. Second, does Romney's early state strategy depend on a big win or any win, no matter how thin a margin of victory, in Iowa? Certainly Huckabee will claim the "moral" victory if he ends within shouting range of Romney. Third, Thompson says he must finish third and he may becoming more competitive with the help of those TV ads. Fourth, McCain is in single digits tied with Ron Paul. Hard to see how this turns out well for him. Fifth, how long before Romney acknowledges he must turn his guns directly on Huckabee and will he risk offending the "nice" voter sentiment in the Hawkeye State? UPDATE: Jonathan Martin has a good take on why Huckabee is rising and what Romney's challenges are- some which may be fixable and others perhaps more difficult.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Romney Spending
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 9:32PM
Re: Supreme Court Gun Case
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 7:58PM
So we're right on schedule for a ruling in June. The lefty interest groups are going to respond by freaking out and beating the drum for more liberal judges, especially if the ban is overturned, and the Democratic nominee will be under a lot of pressure to attack the pro-Second Amendment justices -- thus alienating gun owners and mobilizing them against her.* Should be fun.
*(Yes, I'm still assuming it'll be Hillary, Obama's Iowa poll numbers notwithstanding.)
Slow Down on Stem Cells
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 5:57PM
Ramesh Ponnuru cautions against moving too quickly on evaluating the politics of today's stem-cell discoveries. I think he's right. We pro-lifers should take a wait-and-see approach to the science as well.
Dem-Gaz Defends Huck...From Romney
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 4:32PM
Lest I be accused of noting nothing but bad things about Mike Huckabee, it is worth noting that this past Sunday the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, a right-leaning paper (where I once worked) that tended to support Huck's agenda while sometimes questioning his judgment and/or ethics, came to the ex-governor's defense against Mitt Romney's criticism of him on the subject of college tuition for children of illegal aliens. Their defense did NOT give a blanket endorsement of Huckabee's character, but it did say that in this case he showed more character than Romney. Key parts of the editorial:
Character test
Mitt vs. The Huck
DON'T LOOK now, but the presidential campaign just got interesting...
The interesting part of this or any other political campaign is when character reveals itself. That's when We The People get an insight into a candidate. Funny thing about these character tests-the winners don't necessarily go on to be elected. They're luckier than that. They leave the campaign with their integrity intact. They get to sleep well at night. And when they look in the mirror the next day, they don't have to explain their new, slick selves to their old ones.
All this came to mind when the political news out of Iowa (but we repeat ourselves) took a predictable turn: A candidate decided to do a little demagogin'.
The candidate: Mitt Romney. The issue: ILLEGAL ALIENS!
The target: Michael Dale Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and suddenly surging candidate for president. At least in Iowa, USA.
Mitt Romney had ripped into The Huck for supporting legislation that would have given the children of illegal immigrants in Arkansas the same college tuition breaks available to other instate students.
Why not? Those kids had done well in high school by dint of hard work.
Why slam the college door shut on them?
Of course such an idea is unspeakably fair, even enlightened. Mitt Romney, who sounded a little desperate, wasn't having any of it.
"Giving a better deal to the children of illegal aliens than we give to U.S. citizens from surrounding states," said former Governor Romney, "is simply not fair and not right."
How . . . slick.
What the ex-governor from Massachusetts leaves out is that these kids may have been brought here as babies or toddlers-and then reared right here in the good ol' U.S. of A. They grew up in-state, went to high school in-state, and have the grades to make it into a state college. Why not give them the same deal as any other kid who did the same?
Watching his lead in Iowa being nibbled away by this upstart from Arkansas with no campaign chest to speak of, Mitt Romney faced a character test: to demagogue or not to demagogue. He failed it.... As for Candidate Huckabee, he had two choices: (1) He could spin his way out, claiming Mitt Romney was overstating his position back home in Arkansas, or that he'd come to change his mind after seeing the light on the road to Des Moines. Or (2) he could own up to the fair stand he's always taken, even championed, back in Arkansas, and explain why he thought, and still thinks, it's a good idea to love one's neighbor as oneself. He chose Number Two.
... The upshot of this little exchange in Iowa: Mitt Romney failed his character test; Mike Huckabee passed his. Who is this Michael Dale Huckabee, anyway-some kind of Christian?
-----A new poll shows Mike Huckabee in second place among Republican candidates in Iowa, and catching up with Mitt Romney.
What's going on here? Can sticking with your principles actually pay in American politics? Hard to believe. But maybe there's an explanation. ...
At one meet-and-greet session in West Des Moines, a little ol' lady in the front row peppered Mike Huckabee with question after question about ILLEGAL ALIENS! She seemed convinced They were plotting to take over Us-not just trying to become one of Us.
After the candidate's speech, the newspaperman went up to the little ol' lady and asked if Mike Huckabee had satisfied her on the question of, you know . . . Them! She shook her head no.
So who would get her vote?
Mike Huckabee.
Huh? Why for goshsakes?
She said she thought she could believe what he said.
Not a bad editorial. I'll have plenty more to say about Huckabee later.
Re: Supreme Court Gun Case
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 4:20PM
Rudy's statement: "I strongly believe that Judge Silberman's decision deserves to be upheld by the Supreme Court. The Parker decision is an excellent example of a judge looking to find the meaning of the words in the Constitution, not what he would like them to mean." Rudy also spoke about Silberman's decision at the Federalist Society on Friday.
Jonah Golberg Doesn't Heart Huckabee
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 4:14PM
In this Los Angeles Times column, Goldberg compares Mike Huckabee unfavorably to Ron Paul and also labels him the "bastard child of Lou Dobbs and Pat Robertson."
Chuck Norris will not be pleased.
Just a thought for Turkey Day
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 4:12PM
Isn't calling your Air America radio show The Young Turks (who were responsible for the Armenian Genocide) sort of like calling your radio show The Hitler Youth?
Immigration
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 3:53PM
The Rudy/Romney immigration squabble goes on today. Surrogate Rep. Peter King spoke out- accusing Romney of fudging his record and not offering his own plan. Romney kept up the drum beat on NY as a sanctuary city and didn't like a Pew study Rudy's team used to show the growth of illegal immigration in Massachusetts. ( How many people are following this nitpicking? Not counting bloggers and MSM reporters, I mean.) Marc Ambinder ( the individual link is out but check out "No One is Pure On Immigration") has about the fairest and most complete summary of where each GOP candidate is on this.
Swift Boat Sweepstakes
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 1:25PM
T. Boone Pickens made quite a bit of news at our annual Bartley Dinner when he offered $1 million to anyone who could disprove the charges in the 2004 Swift Boat Veterans ads. John Kerry himself came forward and said he could collect the $1 million on behalf of Paralyzed Veterans of America (Kerry didn't elaborate on which fact he was able to dispute). Pickens responded that he'd glady pay $1 million if Kerry would provide his military record and the journal he maintained while in Vietnam, and then contest the accuracy of the ads. If Kerry could not do so, Pickens challenged the Massachusetts senator to donate $1 million to the Medal of Honor Foundation.
Pickens appeared on Hannity & Colmes last night to talk about the wager, challenging Kerry to show his hand.
Stem Cell Success
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 12:48PM
The Associated Press and numerous other outlets are reporting that scientists have suceeded in making ordinary human skin cells mimick the pluripotency of embryonic stem cells. Through "direct reprogramming," these somatic cells could theoretically be turned into virtually any other kind of cell.
This is an enormous scientific achievement in its own right, but it also may be a major breakthrough in the debate over embryonic stem-cell research. Though this is by no means certain -- many scientific questions remain -- this discovery paves the way for reaping the potential benefits of stem-cell research without the ethical dilemmas of cloning and embryo destruction.
Rudy McRomson Breaking Up?
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 12:30PM
Reckless prediction: Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, will force at least one if not more members of the Republican top tier out of the race.
Chuck Norris and Johnny Rotten will laugh.
UN: AIDS Epidemic Overstated
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 11:49AM
But, then, what's a few million between friends?
The most telling quote from the Post piece: "Some researchers…contend that persistent overestimates in the widely quoted U.N. reports have long skewed funding decisions and obscured potential lessons about how to slow the spread of HIV. Critics have also said that U.N. officials overstated the extent of the epidemic to help gather political and financial support for combating AIDS."
"There was a tendency toward alarmism, and that fit perhaps a certain fundraising agenda," said Helen Epstein, author of The Invisible Cure: Africa, the West, and the Fight Against AIDS. "I hope these new numbers will help refocus the response in a more pragmatic way."
Just how wrong was the UN? "The United Nations has cut its estimate of HIV cases in India by more than half because of a[n alternate, non-UN] study completed this year."
Another Unsettled Settled Question
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 11:35AM
So what if the UN was off with regard to both science and statistics on AIDS! It was in pursuit of a good cause! And, of course, they're absolutely on target with their global warming prophecies, right? I mean, the UN would never stoke fears to extort cash, would they?
That New Hampshire Poll
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 11:35AM
Yesterday, Jennifer noted this CNN/WMUR poll, which was terrible for Giuliani, absolutely disasterous for Thompson, great for Romney and Paul, and okay for McCain.
In the poll, Romney opened up a 15-point lead over his closest rival, McCain, 33 percent to 18 percent. That wasn't due to any great surge by McCain--he just held steady--but a result of the fact that Giuliani nosedived 8 points to 16 percent. Keep in mind that in the same poll taken in September, Giuliani was within one-point of Romney, but in this one he's 17 points back.
Thompson, meanwhile, has dropped to sixth place in the poll to a paltry 4 percent. Just behind Huckabee, but with only half of the support of Paul, who doubled his showing to 8 percent. Unless Thompson does something to stop the bleeding, he's looking more and more like a regional candidate who will be holding out for South Carolina, where he's also been weakening. Paul's surge is likely a result of his new television ads running in New Hampshire, a state that is likely to be among the most receptive to his libertarian message.
As for Giuliani, the poll is clearly bad news, but it should also be noted that he's just started to run TV ads and spend more time in the state, so polls a few weeks from now may be more telling as far as his showing in the state.
And this remains the biggest caveat of all:
This and That
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 11:32AM
The battle between Romney and Rudy on immigration continues. Rudy visited the border yesterday, camp Romney beat the "sanctuary city" drum and today Rudy's side blasts back with "Mitt's Fits: Immigration Edition" reminding anyone who hasn't been following this debate that Romney's effort to deputize state agents was a last gasp, never implemented plan and that he had his own sanctuary cities. (And in case you forgot: there's a reminder of those illegal immigrants working on his front lawn.)
There is a revealing Byron York piece in which a miffed Romney demands to know why people still find it hard to understand how he changed his mind on abortion. It is surprisingly only in that Romney appears less than his usual calm cool self. (And to answer his question: 1) Because the tale of the meeting which prompted his conversion has been disputed by the stem cell reseracher who was present; 2) Because he was such a forceful and impassioned advocate for the opposite position just 2 years ago and 3) Because he has changed on so many other issues-- guns, sex education, campaign finance, immigration, etc.)
Finally, never good to have a headline "Is Fred dead or just resting?"
Has Hell Frozen Over?
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 11:08AM
For the second day in a row, the NY Times has a story highlighting positive developments in Iraq. Here are the key grafs:
As a result, for the first time in nearly two years, people are moving with freedom around much of this city. In more than 50 interviews across Baghdad, it became clear that while there were still no-go zones, more Iraqis now drive between Sunni and Shiite areas for work, shopping or school, a few even after dark. In the most stable neighborhoods of Baghdad, some secular women are also dressing as they wish. Wedding bands are playing in public again, and at a handful of once shuttered liquor stores customers now line up outside in a collective rebuke to religious vigilantes from the Shiite Mahdi Army.
Meanwhile, the McCain camp is claiming a share of the credit for this success, and deservcdly so. Say what you want about McCain, but for years he had been calling for more troops, and he did so again just before Bush announced the new strategy. McCain became closely identified with the surge, and stuck with his position, despite being mocked when he visited Iraq and said things were improving. Even as the chattering class chattered about how his stong support for the surge was erroding his poll numbers among independents, McCain stood firm in his belief that the surge was the correct course of action. If any candidate benefits from improvements in Iraq, it should be McCain.
More (Real) Polls
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 6:40AM
Devalued Reserve
Posted by on 11.20.07 @ 12:10AM
Beginning today (Tuesday) the Federal Reserve loses its customary reserve and joins the ranks of plain prognosticators. It will forecast the basic economiic measures of the economy: GDP, rate of inflation, unemployment, etc. It will do this not once but four times a year, with estimates going out for three years from the forecast time.
In short, what had been valued for its rarity and remoteness becomes another bunch of the boys, predictors in the dismal science, the mystery and thus the power stripped away.
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Upside of the Writers' Strike
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 7:20PM
You knew there had to be at least one.
Romney Poll Story
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 5:42PM
I have largely avoided comment because I agree with Phil's take and have had no additional facts to add to this story. I did get some general background from Charlie Cook, a real honest to goodness pollster, who I think provides some perspective on terminology and what is at issue: He explains:
" First, there is no such thing as a push poll. There are polls that test weaknesses of the client/candidate or the weaknesses of opponents, and there are negative phone banks that spew venom, but something is either a poll or it is not. One is designed to gather information, the other is designed to disseminate (negative) information. That's why, as someone who is a former pollster and works closely with polling, I never use that term and hate it when others does. It just perpetuates the confusion.
Second, for at least a quarter century, pollsters have tested not just the potential vulnerabilities of their opponents but also of their clients. Those pollsters are known as competent pollsters. Anybody that doesn't test their own candidate's potential problems, or testing which arguments work better than others, isn't competent.
The question is whether they called a sample (say 1,000 or less) voters in a state, or was it more of a mass call, and did they ask at least a few demographic questions, so that the results could be analyzed [and] how much argument or information did or did not move various types of voters. If there are no demographic questions, it almost certainly isn't a poll."
Polls (The Real Kind)
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 5:23PM
Alex Gage responds
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 4:02PM
TargetPoint Consulting's Alex Gage has released the following letter:
"To Interested Parties:
Today's unfortunate article written by Mark Hemingway and posted
National Review Online concerning allegations over anti-Romney
push-polling that suggests that TargetPoint Consulting was somehow
involved is both inaccurate and inexcusable.
To set the record straight: Whether the calls were in fact
push-polls or some ridiculous attempt at message testing,
TargetPoint Consulting has absolutely nothing to do with the calls
in question. To be even clearer: TargetPoint Consulting has NEVER
and will NEVER conduct a push-poll. TargetPoint is in the business
of promoting Governor Romney, not manufacturing fantasy plots that
involve smearing him.
Neither I nor TargetPoint was contacted before publication of this
piece. Not by email. Not by voice mail. If the person representing
National Review had contacted us, we would have told him on the
record that TargetPoint Consulting had nothing to do with this and
that his theory was erroneous and absent any merit.
I am not sure what, if any, motives the author may have, but now
that it has been published, this piece has unfairly smeared me, my
firm and the Romney campaign.
If there is any mystery to be uncovered regarding these polls, it
will be by real reporting and not irresponsible speculation that
tramples the good names of reputable pollsters and polling
firms.
Sincerely,
Alex Gage, TargetPoint Consulting"
Tom Kean Endorses McCain
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 2:51PM
The former New Jersey governor and co-chair of the 9/11 commission is behind John McCain. While by itself the endorsement doesn't carry much weight with Republicans, Kean may prove a useful surrogate for McCain. If he gets dispatched to go after Rudy Giuliani's record on 9/11, it will generate headlines.
Anti-Mormons Are Due on Maple Street
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 2:40PM
Jim Geraghty offers a theory on the push polls:
Caution
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 1:28PM
I truly hope, as Phil does, that the good news continues, and wholeheartedly greet positive developments from the surge, but I also have to say that I stood not far from that mosque in Samarra a month before it was blown up and was told very similar thing about fantastic reductions in violence and a new leaf being turned over with the residents. (Although Samarra was the first place I was called infidel in a non-ironic way.) Samarra was going to be the model, and, believe me, I saw first hand some of the amazing humanitarian projects undertaken by U.S. soldiers at great risk to themselves in an attempt to cement those gains. My take-away from the whole tragic episode--and tragedy is the only fitting term when I think of the Iraqi children I met living under such chaotic and despicable circumstance--is that al Qaeda and the violent sepratist sects that have a vital interest in maintaining disorder are never more dangerous than when things are getting better. They watch the news, too, and strike accordingly. This time seems different. Caution, however, remains a useful refrain.
Good News From Iraq
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 12:41PM
On the front page of the NY Times:
Data released at a news conference in Baghdad showed that attacks had declined to the lowest level since January 2006. It is the third week in a row that attacks have been at this reduced level.
Re: Scary Rudy
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 12:26PM
A lot of political definition is determined by your friends and by your enemies. Some politicians ask to be judged by their friends. Rudy is just as happy to be judged by his enemies: Arafat, the ACLU, the New York Times and Al Sharpton. I think a dichotomized world view with good and bad guys is what underlies much of his appeal -- and drives his enemies to distraction.
Scapegoating Social Conservatives
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 12:16PM
Over at NRO, David Freddoso takes apart one of my least favorite memes: The idea that social conservatives are primarily to blame for the Republican Party's woes.
Scary Rudy
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 12:02PM
From one of my former collegues, comes this:
Add to those views a reputation for being combative, and Giuliani often evokes the word "scary" from opponents who find the tough-guy image that served him so well after the September 11 attacks now a cause for concern as he seeks the U.S. presidency.
Type the word "scary" and names of Republican candidates for president into a leading database of articles. The name of the former New York mayor will get the most hits.
More support for my
point.
Re: Prowler Updates on Glendon
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 10:59AM
Just to be clear, in light of today's Prowler update on the Mary Ann Glendon situation: It matters not WHO is putting the hold on Glendon, I repeat that it is an incredibly misguided hold for all the reasons I outlined on Friday. And I repeat that ANY anonymous hold of longer than a couple of days, or any participation in a "rolling" hold that is anonymous and that is intended not for informational purposes but for purposes of killing a nomination, is cowardly in the extreme. (Why the exception for a few days? Because the original idea of a hold provided for a case where, for instance, a senator might have heard a rumor that reflects badly upon a nominee and want to check it out without going public about the rumor, the secrecy being for the EXPRESS PURPOSE of protecting the reputation of the nominee himself. In other words, if a senator publicly identified himself as the source of the hold, he would immediately be questioned as to why, and the identity of the senator himself might hint at the sort of thing the senator might be concerned with and thus lead to a greater chance for an unsubstantiated rumor to be aired. But again, the idea is NOT to protect the senator, but to protect the nominee -- and the idea was that the hold should last only until the senator had time to do the appropriate quiet research to alleviate -- or prove the truth of -- his concerns.) All of this skulking around in the dark, as it were, is behavior unbefitting a high official in a free society. If somebody objects to Mary Ann Glendon because he thinks her support of Romney somehow throws into question her pro-life bona fides (being pro life being obviously an important position for somebody going to represent us to the Vatican), THEN LET HIM SAY SO PUBLICLY and thus let him be forced to answer questions about whether or not such a concern is at all reasonable.
I swear, to behave otherwise is to treat the U.S. Senate like the most small-minded but overly powerful of college fraternities, blackballing people not only for their own membership but for other positions (on campus or in goverment) based on pathetic little private agendas that the senators don't have the guts to discuss in public.
Romney on McCain and the Anti-Mormon Calls
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 10:04AM
I got pulled away on another story when this first came up Friday afternoon, but I found Romney's comments attempting to tie the anti-Mormon calls to McCain-Feingold to be a cheap shot. Keep in mind that the comments came on the same day that McCain strongly condemned the anti-Mormon push polls, and called on the NH Attorney General to investigate the matter.
CBS's Horserace notes:
When asked about McCain launching an investigation into the push polling, Romney said "it's kind of ironic that Senator McCain is filing that request for an investigation."
He added: "Senator McCain is the father of McCain-Feingold and it's McCain-Feingold that opens the pathway for this very kind of political technique. McCain-Feingold is the monster that we're having to deal with here."
Not Willing to Settle for Gay Candidate?
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 9:57AM
Democrats in North Carolina have searched all year for a candidate to take on Sen. Elizabeth Dole, whom they view as a fundraising powerhouse but vulnerable. Optimism has grown for Dems in the Tar Heel state after the 2006 victory of Rep. Heath Shuler and the near-removal of Republican Rep. Robin Hayes at the hands of unknown Larry Kissell (who is running again), who lost by about 300 votes last year despite raising no money and getting no help from the national party.
Several potentially viable choices turned the party down on a Dole challenge, with most of them seemingly afraid to lose their current offices or stature. After the top dozen (at least) possibilities begged off, another unknown stepped forward: former Wall Street investor Jim Neal.
But it seems that despite the surprising near-success that Kissell had, Democrats are not willing to try that strategy again with Neal. They went back to state Senator Kay Hagan, who had earlier rejected the idea, and convinced her to run against Dole.
Why? Some think it's because Neal is gay. But as you can imagine with this situation arising with Democrats rather than Republicans, any charges of homophobia are muted.
No Comments on Glendon?
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 9:51AM
Come on, folks, I am very disappointed that nobody else wants to discuss what to me seems a huge story, that of a Republican senator apparently blackballing (okay, blue-slipping) a Republican president's nominee for a high profile ambasssadorship -- especially when I tried to make my comments on the matter so provocative. If somebody as eminent as Professor Glendon is blocked due to sheer pique, to me that represents EVERYTHING that has gone wrong with the Republican Party and the conservative movement: Pettiness, self-absorption, lack of statesmanship, random (rather than well-thought-out) lack of party discipline.... all sorts of things.
Did Romney Push-Poll Himself?
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 9:44AM
Over at NRO, Mark Hemingway notes potential connections between the anti-Mormon calls and Romney's inner circle. There is still a lot of speculation involved, so I think it's best to refrain from further comment at this point.
UPDATE: Romney spokesman Kevin Madden pushes back hard against the article.
UPDATE II: Alex Gage, the Romney consultant named in the article, also fires back
The Profs and Pundits Primaries
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 9:14AM
David Bernstein tallies the law professors who are allied with Republican candidates. Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson all boast impressive line-ups -- especially Thompson.
And Ramesh Ponnuru tallies the support the candidates are getting from righty commentators, noting Giuliani's disproportionately large fanbase. (Phil and Jennifer are mentioned.) Ramesh warns that rooting for a candidate can color a pundit's judgment. On a related note, I just realized that I've missed Maryland's deadline for changing my party registration -- because there haven't been any important Republican contests around here in the past couple of cycles, I'm registered as a Democrat -- and therefore I won't be voting in the Republican primary. Obviously, this makes me an entirely clear-eyed and unbiased observer.
You Won't Believe This...Or Maybe You Will?
Posted by on 11.19.07 @ 9:07AM
Michael Brendan Dougherty, as Sylvester Stallone circa 1982 might have said, drew first blood against the neo-atheists with "Secular Fundamentalists," a piece from The American Conservative on a recent Virginia gathering of non-believers. But now the empire of the godless has struck back.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Romney Comments
Posted by on 11.18.07 @ 10:09PM
Kevin Madden, Romney spokesman answered a few questions about Thompson's remarks today and the push poll controversy. What was his reaction to the comments concerning Terry Schiavo? "I've read the transcript and I still can't figure it out. His response was somewhat meandering. " What is the Romney reaction to Thompson's remarks concerning management experience not being essential to the presidency? "Unfortunately for Fred Thompson, hitting a gavel in a committee hearing room isn't the type of management experience people are looking for in a president. " And what about his comments regarding Romney "whining" about the NRLC endorsement? "Governor Romney is working hard at town halls and meeting as many voters as possible in order to earn the support of Republican activists. Hard work and bold ideas are what motivates supporters, and Governor Romney has plenty of both. Fred Thompson should do more with the endorsement than just ruminate over why others didn't receive it. As a campaign, we respect those pro-life advocates who have offered their support for other candidates, just as we are thankful for the support of those who are working with Governor Romney. Ultimately, we look forward to working together with all of those involved in the pro-life movement throughout this campaign." Finally, if a campaign is tied to the push polls what should they do( e.g. fire people, cooperate in a criminal prosecution)? "I'd expect any campaign that was involved with the calls would likely have to take quick action against those responsible. The criminal prosecution part is a question for the New Hampshire AG's office."
The LA Times Smears Fred Thompson
Posted by on 11.18.07 @ 5:20PM
The LA Times portrays Thompson's prosecutorial career as unimpressive. Patterico -- a prosecutor himself -- looks at Thompson's actual win/loss numbers, which he got from blogger Anwyn, and concludes that "they seem pretty standard for someone of his experience level." The punchline: "[Anwyn] got the information she was looking for . . . from the reporter! You see, he had that information. He just didn't think it was relevant to include in an article about Thompson's record as a prosecutor."
Thompson on This Week
Posted by on 11.18.07 @ 4:20PM
Rudy Revealed
Posted by on 11.18.07 @ 12:03PM
Although the Rudy folks didn't send this around, at least not yet, this piece in the Weekly Standard gets at the nub of his appeal: he's all about fighting the bad guys. Social conservatives looking for him to directly repudiate Roe v. Wade will be disappointed again but there is plenty about his views on strict constructionist judges. The ending reads: "You sometimes hear that Giuliani is a cipher, that he has hidden or downplayed his true self in order to appeal to the Republican primary electorate, and the American electorate more generally. Nothing could be further from the truth. His instincts, his thoughts, his goals, his tactics, his audacity--it is all there in the open, like it or not, as it has been from the beginning."
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