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Friday, November 10, 2006
Jabberjaw Recovery
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 9:47PM
It's taken a while to get out from under the past 24 hours -- the biggest domestic news day of the year. But, praise be, I've done it. A pundit's hits:
(1) Pence all the way. I beat this drum silly. There can be only one. (2) I was wrong about one thing with this election: a Bush deal on immigration with the Dems is one rotten outcome that would otherwise have been impossible. My reax to (3) Rumsfeld's ouster, (4) the Dandy War, and (5) this weird new Webb-based consternation over the "Party of Lincoln" concept are all here. Bring on the weekend.
November 11, 1918
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 4:02PM
With due respect for all veterans on Veterans' Day, for many it is still "the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month" that freed a nation from the toils of a conflict that forever changed a nation. The fact that there would be more consuming conflicts in the decades to come and more veterans thus produced only underscores the importance of lessons unlearned on Armistice Day.
The Pence Manifesto
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 3:29PM
Mike Pence has released his vision for the Republican Party. It's well worth the read.
CFIF for Pence
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 2:19PM
Congressman Pence keeps racking up endorsements. The latest is from the Center for Individual Freedom -- their first-ever endorsement. Thanks to On Tap for the heads up.
Re: Dems' Clean Up
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 1:48PM
Philip, I saw Nancy Pelosi touting her new and improved clean House on the news Wednesday night. In addition to Mollohan, the House Dems still have William "Freezer" Jefferson and John Murtha as a potential majority leader.
If this is clean...
Russian Commisars Puking
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 1:26PM
Flake is talking big sense in this Wall Street Journal must-read.
Dems Sure Know How to Clean Up
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 11:43AM
Reason's Radley Balko demonstrates how Democrats are already showing signs of abandoning pledges to clean up Washington. West Virginia Democrat Alan Mollohan will keep his Appropriations Committee seat even though he was dismissed from the House ethics committee. As the Washington Post notes, in winning, he overcame "investigations of his real estate dealings and allegations that he used his influence to shift millions of taxpayer dollars to friends and relatives." Meanwhile, Rep. Alcee Hastings is set to be chair of the Intellegence Committee even though the former federal judge "was impeached and removed from the bench by a Democratic Congress in 1989 for taking bribes."
Mehlman and Rudy
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 11:17AM
RE: "talk along K Street and elsewhere is that he is going to help former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani decide whether a presidential run is a good idea."
Mehlman would be a solid addition to Rudy's team. As a supporter of Rudy myself, the biggest concern I have is that Giuliani will wait too long to decide and thus end up too far behind Romney/McCain as far as building a national organization. In some sense there's an argument for waiting to keep everybody in suspense so once you do announce, it generates more excitement. But there's also a danger that by waiting too long, people assume you're not running, lose interest, and join another campaign. McCain and Romney have the luxury of waiting to make an official announcement because everybody knows they're running. In my view, Giuliani will ultimately decide to run, but if he wants to win, it's imperative that he announce soon to dispell all doubts and demonstrate that he's serious about it.
Mehlman the Mensch
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 8:45AM
Ken Mehlman's mid-term election plan didn't quite work out as planned, but he there is a very good case to be made that he doesn't deserve a lot of the blame for the losses in the House and the Senate. Mehlman did what he was supposed to do: raise money, make sure candidates had the support they required from the national party, and he did that in spades. You rarely if ever heard a GOP candidate complaining about lack of support.
His - and Karl Rove's - efforts have generated more Republicans at the polls than at just about any time in modern history, something that has forced the Democrats to dramatically change their game plan, a game plan, we should add, that simply can't hold up for more than two years as the Democrats will be forced to show their true intentions on tough policy issues in little time.
Mehlman has not publicly stated where he intends to hang his hat, but talk along K Street and elsewhere is that he is going to help former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani decide whether a presidential run is a good idea.
Tom Tancredo Backs Pence
Posted by on 11.10.06 @ 1:50AM
Via Human Events.
This could prove a significant endorsement for Mike Pence, because the one issue that makes Pence vulnerable with conservatives is his support for a guest worker program that has been assailed by immigration hawks as "amnesty." With the endorsement of Tancredo, that issue is nutralized.
Thursday, November 9, 2006
Another Man Card Lost
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 5:39PM
Britney Spears' soon-to-be ex-husband Keven Federline joins Jessica Simpson's Nick Lachey in making claims for spousal support post-divorce.
I'm sorry guys, that's an automatic forfeiture of your man cards. We'll be sending someone by for the anatomy later.
Class Act
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 4:00PM
Sen. George Allen helped himself and the GOP by his magnanimous announcement today that he conceded defeat and declined to request a recount to which he was entitled. It is indeed refreshing to see a political leader take the high road, like leaders used to do, in simply accepting the results of an election and moving on.
Kudlow Tonight
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 3:58PM
I'm sitting in the CNBC Studios on Madison Avenue waiting to talk on-air with my pal Larry Kudlow. Don't know the hit time, but somewhere between 5 and 6 pm EST we'll be talking about the Rumsfeld resignation, Bob Gates and where we go from here. Hope you can catch it.
Conservatism, Liberalism, and the Midterms
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 3:19PM
Ezra Klein has a column out arguing against the idea that conservatism won in this year's election. I would agree with that, but only to a certain extent. Conservatism may not have won this year, but it didn't lose either, because it wasn't on the ballot-nor was liberalism. This was not an ideological election pitting conservatives who want to get government off of people's backs against liberals who believe that more government is the solution to people's problems.
This election came down to corruption and national security. Corruption, like runaway spending, was a symptom of the illness that infected a Republican Party that had fallen in love with power and betrayed its core principles. National security still decided the third election in a row, but this year the climate was more favorable to Democrats. In 2004, most of those who identified Iraq as the most important issue voted for John Kerry, while most of those who cited terrorism voted for President Bush. This time around, because the War in Iraq had become more unpopular, more people identified Iraq as their most important issue and voted overwhelmingly Democratic and those who identified terrorism as the most important issue cast their votes more equally for both parties.
Any attempt to interpret this election as a win or loss for
conservatism or a win or a loss for liberalism is a mistake in my
view.
For more on why I think conservatism didn't lose on Tuesday and why
liberalism didn't win, click
here.
Dems and Their Base
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 3:17PM
The far left is already getting angry over reports that Rahm Emanuel is trying to prevent the Democratic majority's ultra-liberal wing from dominating the party.
One of the most interesting things to watch over the next two years is how progressives who worked hard to put Democrats in the majority will react should the party's leadership push a more centrist agenda once in power. Conservatives who experienced the agony of the GOP's descent into big government Republicanism understand how easily power can change politicians, and the next two years may prove just as frustrating for progressives. Though they are now euphoric over Jim Webb's apparent victory in Virginia, they may soon view him with disgust the way conservatives came to abhor Lincoln Chafee.
Emanuel probably realizes that if the Democrats overplay their hand by seeing this election as a triumph for liberalism, they will only give Republicans fodder to run on in 2008. Let us not forget that Netroots poster boy Ned Lamont got trounced in a state that Kerry won by 10 points, suggesting that the type of pure progressivism and vehement anti-war rhetoric espoused by the far left will not be a winner for the Democratic Party.
Based on the conciliatory overtures that they have been making in the aftermath of their victory, Democratic leaders may have decided that their best bet is to govern as moderates even at the risk of angering their base. Their calculation is probably that even if the base gets disgruntled in the interim, when the next presidential election comes around, progressives will be so desperate to recapture the White House that they'll forgive a wobbly Democratic Party.
Whether moderate Democrats will actually be able to maintain
discipline and rein in committee chairmen such as Henry Waxman,
John Conyers and Charlie Rangel is another story entirely. See also
Shawn's post below.
Origin of the Bipartisan Species
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 1:56PM
Re-linking bits from Drudge is usually fairly tedious for readers and pointless for circulation, but it seems this Insight article is noteworthy enough to break my general rule, especially with all the bipartisan kissy face going on right now. The meat of it:
Democratic Party sources said as House Speaker, Ms. Pelosi plans to block moves that would place hawks into important chairmanships. The sources said a key casualty would be Rep. Jane Harman, a six-term member of Congress who has cooperated with Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee.
"Nancy Pelosi wants total party discipline," a source in the Democratic Party leadership said. "If you played ball with the Republicans during this session, then you're not going to be given an important chair in the next session."
An anonymous source may prove inaccurate, but if not, it looks like the post-election lovefest isn't going to make it out of the Democratic Party never mind across the aisle.
Ed Bradley
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 1:23PM
Comes the news that Ed Bradley has died of a resurgent leukemia at the age of 65. Explains why, on the only 60 Minutes Broadcast I watched at all recently, his gooey interview of Tiger Woods, Bradley looked so sepulchral, and about 20 years older.
Uncommon Sense
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 12:57PM
I commend to you all J. Peter Mulhern's essay today in The American Thinker, Finding Wisdom in the Wreckage here. Mulhern, who first came to my attention during the Clinton impeachment as caller Peter from Annapolis on Rush's show, argues that George W. Bush's genuine "compassionate conservatism" doomed him as a war leader.
"...Blinding compassion is disabl(ed) Bush the war leader.
"In the aftermath of 9/11 any minimally responsible American government would have had to topple Saddam Hussein. We were at war with Hussein (yes, a real shooting war) and we were losing. When the twin towers fell we all knew, at some level, that the Arab world had challenged us. We couldn't respond to that challenge by losing a war to our most vocal and visible Arab enemy. We had to assert our dominance, and Iraq, a major, oil-producing enemy just above the Arabian Peninsula, was the logical place to do it.
"George W. Bush was not the man for this job. Instead of pivoting out of Afghanistan and descending on Iraq like a biblical plague, he took a long detour through the United Nations to argue about flouted resolutions and weapons of mass destruction.
"When we finally got around to an invasion we had to put a humanitarian gloss on an essential demonstration of our power. Instead of Operation Arab Smackdown we got Operation Iraqi Freedom. This was the true blunder that turned Iraq from a political asset into a liability. This blunder belongs to George W. Bush and George W. Bush alone, even though Don Rumsfeld has now paid for it with his job."
Arrogant Little Andrew
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 11:50AM
I don't pay any attention to the hysterics of Andrew Sullivan anymore, but a colleague emailed me this:
I'm sorry I don't feel great sympathy for the legions of conservative commentators who kept drinking and spewing the Bush Kool-Aid, knowing full well it had nothing to do with conservatism, until they are now forced to reveal the truth. Here's an amazing quote from Rush Limbaugh yesterday:"There have been a bunch of things going on in Congress, some of this legislation coming out of there that I have just cringed at, and it has been difficult coming in here, trying to make the case for it when the people who are supposedly in favor of it can't even make the case themselves - and to have to come in here and try to do their jobs."All together now: Awwww. I'm so sorry Limbaugh had to lie through his teeth to try and keep in the good graces of his Republican masters. Have you ever heard of intellectual honesty, Mr Limbaugh? You can look it up in the dictionary.
This from the guy who thinks he's really fooling people by telling us that John Kerry would have been better than Bush on national security. This from the guy who thinks he's fooling people into thinking that his turn against Bush was all about the Administration's so-called bungling of the Iraq War and had nothing to do with the Federal Marriage Amendment (oh, that's right, I'm not supposed say that; it's an "unanswerable smear.")
What was that about "intellectual honesty," Andrew?
What It All Means
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 11:02AM
I know there's a big push right now to figure out what this election means.
Is it a repudiation of Bill Kristol-esque American Greatness Conservatism? If so, how to explain the simultaneous idea of McCain as the last big man standing?
There are lots of grand themes we could discuss here and theorize about why the GOP lost and what it should do to regain its standing, but I think the real answer is fairly simple:
The President is incapable of promoting and defending his policies. I'm not one of those guys who thinks the president is dumb. I agree with Bill Whittle that you can't fly a fighter jet and be dumb. However, he is one of the worst public speakers I have ever seen and he is terrible, TERRIBLE at thinking on his feet.
I had these concerns about him back in 2000 when I watched debates with Bush, McCain, and yes, Alan Keyes, in which Bush was an obvious and distant third at speaking his mind. During his presidency, I have been utterly unable to watch his speeches and debates. They are case studies in ineptitude, particularly for a generation schooled in Reagan and Clinton as effective communicators.
George W. Bush would never have been elected president if his father had not been president. I'm amazed his father was able to accomplish it, but he would never have done it without the aura of Reagan surrounding him. We have got to choose someone next time who is a great communicator and who could win the office even if they came from nothing as Reagan and Clinton did. Those two men gained the office with nothing but talent and potent work ethics to sustain them.
What lost on Nov. 7 was inarticulate conservatism and really no other kind.
Re: Rush Carrying Water
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 10:15AM
More revelations from Rush Limbaugh on his program
yesterday:
There have been a bunch of things going on in Congress, some of this legislation coming out of there that I have just cringed at, and it has been difficult coming in here, trying to make the case for it when the people who are supposedly in favor of it can't even make the case themselves -- and to have to come in here and try to do their jobs. I'm a radio guy! I understand what this program has become in America and I understand the leadership position it has. I was doing what I thought best, but at this point, people who don't deserve to have their water carried, or have themselves explained as they would like to say things but somehow aren't able to, I'm not under that kind of pressure.
Again, Rush has done a tremendous disservice to conservatives, to his listeners, and ultimately to himself. Without intending to, he has allowed the flaws of the GOP to taint himself, and it will take a while for him to recover I think. Now that he has made this admission, people will ask, "Is he really saying what he thinks, or is he just carrying water for his team, which he really doesn't agree with?" The same goes for the Republicans in general. If they try to go back to promoting principles like those in the "Contract with America," who is going to believe them now? It will take a while for them to convince people that they are sincere.
This is the price you pay when you hold back or are not honest about what you really think.
RE: Immigration Agenda Changing Already?
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 8:52AM
Paul: Hmmm...Price doesn't seem inclined to fund the fence.
Do you think that Mike Pence is already whispering in his ear?
Well, This Should Be Fun
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 8:48AM
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack will be running for President in '08.
I wonder if he sent the announcement via email?
Immigration Agenda Changing Already?
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 8:43AM
Change in leadership of course means change in chairmen for
committees, subcommittees, etc. One of those new leaders is almost
certain to be North Carolina Rep. David Price, who is expected to
head the House Appropriations subcommittee that deals with homeland
security. He was asked by The News &
Observer of Raleigh about the fate of the 700-mile fence
along the U.S.-Mexico border:
Price called it "bumper-sticker legislation."
The new fence is just an authorization, with no money attached. Price's committee would have to pay for the thing.
Asked about funding the fence, Price paused to consider.
"I don't know," he said.
For now, Price hopes Congress will come up with what he would consider a better approach to securing the border.
I'm sure he'd have the same answer if asked what that better approach would be.Re: Republican Leaders, Republican Blame
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 7:22AM
Wlady, I too commend Dave for pitching three perfect games, and I also agree with him about McCain and Graham. As far as the Republican future is concerned, they're toast. We need a call back to principles, not an exaltation of media-hungry squishes.
Re: Hynes' Latest Hit
Posted by on 11.9.06 @ 12:33AM
Dave: Good questions, though I imagine McCain and his people will know how to make their case in both areas. You seem almost concerned that McCain could be demagogued on judges and amnesty. I don't think he will; for one thing, the question of judges isn't likely to loom as large as an issue like immigration; besides, he'll be able to point to the confirmations he was able to facilitate. As for amnesty, if he makes it clear that his support for so-called amnesty is consistent with his concern for finding a realistic solution to the question of illegals and his understanding of the economic contribution so many of these people make to our prosperity. Doing so will be consistent with his cheery side -- let those who want to fulminate against him go ahead and be that way. Screamers don't usually win in American politics.
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
How To Beat Your Competitors, European Style
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:45PM
Looks like the Continent is tired of having higher unemployment than Great Britain. The solution? Force Great Britain to adopt the same restrictions on the work week as every other European country.
Hat tip: Amy Ridenour.
20-Year Navy Vet on Rumsfeld
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:44PM
The guy who should have been a pundit in my family -- my Dad, Phil -- had this to say in an e-mail about election results and Rumsfeld's resignation:
The way to fight terrorists is to search them out with small specialized units, Special Forces, SEALS, mercenaries, or clandestine forces, and kill them. Large conventional forces don't work with what military writer William Lind calls Fourth Generation warfare or what some call asymetrical warfare.
But the Pentagon is full of generals and admirals who like to command large armies or large battle groups organized around aircraft carriers. And congressmen with military installations or defense contractors in their districts prefer these kind of officers because of the pork their ideas bring to their districts. Any defense secretary is immediately confronted with these officers, who, like others in DC, cultivate powerful members of Congress in order to get what they want. One of the most famous of these officers was Admiral Hyman Rickover, the father of the nuclear navy. He was a master at using powerful friends in Congress against his foes in the Pentagon. (Read his biography by Norman Polmar and Thomas Matthews)
Rumsfeld's ideas were pretty much overshadowed after 9/11. He had to fight President Bush's war with the organization he inherited.
It's an old story, when John Holland developed his submarine in 1896, he was resisted by the usual suspects in the Navy. He said they disliked submarines because "They had no deck to strut upon." Billy Mitchell ran into the same people in the 1920's when he promoted aviation.
9/11 was a case of events getting in the saddle and riding the horse. If Iraq had turned out they way the neocons thought it would have, Bush, Rumsfeld, and the rest would be celebrating even larger gains in Congress today. Wars, which are almost always ill-advised and preventable, create either heroes or goats. "Success has a thousand fathers; failure is an orphan."
There's no redemption in politics.
That Weird Media, Pt. 2
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:41PM
I've also heard rumors that the economy is getting better. I've heard that very soon the media will be reporting:
1. How good the employment situation is.
2. How well the stock market is doing.
3. How much wages are rising.
4. How low inflation is.
So, if the media reports these things now, but didn't before, say, November 7, then it must mean that the economy is now good but wasn't before.
Correct?
That Weird Media, Pt 1
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:37PM
What happened to all those stories about voting fraud, irregularities, and intimidation? They were all over the news in 2000, 2002, and 2004. The talking heads couldn't get enough of them. But this time, in '06, they barely register a blip on the radar screen.
Anyone know what happened? I can't figure it out. I can only guess that there must not have been any voter fraud, irregularities, or intimidation this time.
RE: Hynes' Latest Hit
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:34PM
Wlady: I should probably leave this alone, but let me clarify anyway.
Perhaps McCain shouldn't be blamed for the immigration deal or the Gang of 14. Regardless, do you think that his opponents in the '08 primaries will heed your advice? Or do you think they will be running commercials claiming he favored amnesty and that his deal resulted in a few judges not being confirmed?
And, finally, how do you think the base will view it? I don't see many GOP voters who are going to look at McCain cooperating with Ted Kennedy on immigration and say, "That's the man I want as president!"
The Mikes!
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:27PM
Mike Pence as majority leader and Michael Steele as RNC chairman. All clouds have their silver linings.
Michael Steele to the RNC?
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:35PM
There's a rumor that he could take over for Ken Mehlman.
Re: Rush Carrying Water
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:23PM
Wlady, I didn't mean to imply that Rush is a complete Bush or GOP toady. His record is out there on Miers, immigration, etc. as you mention, so to assert otherwise would be foolish of me.
But here we have Rush admitting that he was carrying water for people he didn't really believe in. That, to me, is a stunning admission by a man whose stock and following is grounded on the fact that he speaks his mind and doesn't hold back. His reputation is as a risk-taker, unafraid to get verbally slapped because of something he's said.
Rush has made it easy, even fashionable in many quarters, to expose, criticize and mock liberal doctrine. He is a hero to conservatives because he has freed their consciences to openly counterattack their opponents. And as everyone recognizes, he has revolutionized talk radio and still owns it. He should, because he has earned it.
But now he's made it almost too easy to bash liberals, and from my perspective, during the Bush administration Rush often took that easy path instead of doing the hard work of pummeling his party into line. Look how far afield Republicans went. If Rush, as he has admitted, was carrying their water, don't you think he could have done something to help reign them back in?
To be forthright, I don't listen to Rush nearly as much as I used to (a lot of it has to do with my schedule, which rarely enables me to tune in). But even when I do have the chance, I often don't because it seemed like every time I did listen his criticism of liberals wouldn't be anything new to me. Meanwhile his own party was in many ways betraying the principles he (and I) hold so dear, yet he would say comparatively little about that. Therefore my iPod was a more attractive option.
But if Rush says he is now liberated, I am curious about what he has to say. Sometimes you need a significant event in your life to get you to focus, or refocus. I hope that's the case now, so I will listen to find out.
Re: Rush's Carrying Water
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 7:08PM
Paul: Remember it was Rush who found a way to oppose Harriet Miers without being at all unfriendly toward Bush. It was the best sort of non-water carrying. I'm sure there have been other such cases, beginning with his opposition to Bush and Senate on immigration.
Rocky Montana
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 6:59PM
Wonder why the nation was kept waiting into Wednesday to learn which party may be dominant in the United States Senate? The state of gold and silver: Montana. And lord only knows if the result is knowable even now!
Yellowstone County, Billings and environs, is the state's most populous, and the County Election Administrator, Duane Winslow, says a new software program fooled him. Absentee ballots are to be counted first -- about 20,000 for the county. After these were tabulated, Winslow says he was supposed to hit a "zero out" button on the three electronic counting machines to clear the way for tabulating the regular ballots. He is quoted as saying he thinks he hit the button on one machine but may have neglected the other two.
"It's just a mistake I made," he says.
About 12:40 a. m. Mountain Time, Winslow figured the hell with it, no telling how many absentee ballots may have been counted twice, along with the regular ballots, so he decided to do a complete recount! What staff was left in the courthouse would probably be there until dawn, leading to the perplexed faces on all those anchors in the East.
Compounding the Montana dilemma is a new state law that allows election-day registration. This led to long lines of registrant-voters waiting long after the 8 p.m. closing time. (The last ballot was cast in Gallatin County at 11:55 p m.) The statewide database of voters had a technical glitch that prevented two counties from registering new voters for about an hour. The solution: provisional ballots.
Add to the new same-day registration wrinkle and the absentee surge the need to feed some computer cards into the system by hand because of a glitch in automation and you get an idea of why the Treasure State was late in electing a U.S. Senator.
We Can Only Hope ...
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 4:45PM
That newly elected Democrat Rep. Heath Shuler does for his party what he did for the Washington Redskins. The former first round pick was a bust. While the game may have changed, Shuler's brain remains the same, and that apparently has been his ongoing challenge.
According to the folks at ProFootballTalk.com Shuler scored a very John Kerry like16 (out of a possible 50) on the Wonderlic intelligence test at the pre-draft combine in Indianapolis.
One Warner for Another?
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 4:12PM
Virginia Sen. John Warner has to be looking at the campaign his junior Republican colleague came up against and wondering what the hell he's gotten himself into.
Word among Democrat circles in the commonwealth is that former Gov. Mark Warner is already looking at that Senate seat and that after the rally in Alexandria on Monday night for Jim Webb, current Dem recruiter, Sen. Chuck Schumer, was telling staff on Capitol Hill that Warner was game to run for Warner's seat.
Warner himself seemed to hint at such a potential run in his remarks to the crowd in Alexandria.
Why Did It Take This to Liberate Rush?
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 4:04PM
Rush Limbaugh has this posted at his Web site today, culled from his radio program:
Like almost all conservatives, I love Rush. But this comment disturbs me. Part of the problem is that for far too long, he, Sean Hannity, and many of the rest of (popular) talk radio conservatives have done too much water-carrying and not enough calling to accountability. They failed to call President Bush and his fellow Congressional "big government" aficionados on their sins, instead helping them nudge along their misguided agenda.
Meanwhile, genuine conservatives like Rep. Mike Pence and Sen. Tom Coburn have stuck their necks out in order to try and draw their colleagues back to their original principles. Perhaps if their allies in talk radio had been equally as brave the last few years, disasters like yesterday wouldn't have had to happen.
Pence Makes It Official
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 3:44PM
Says he will seek the position of minority leader. Statement here. My thoughts from last week here.
Big Gov't and Election Results
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:44PM
On the conference call I just mentioned, Pat Toomey cited a poll that the Club for Growth conducted Sunday night among voters in 15 races they viewed as the most competitive, as empirical evidence that the Republicans' abandonment of its small government principles hurt them last night. Among the results, which won't be released until tomorrow, was a finding that voters identified Republicans as the party of big government by an 11-point margin.
Memo to Rumsfeld
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:39PM
You're supposed to leap in front of the bullet, not behind it.
Flake Calls For New House Leadership
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:35PM
I'm on a conference call being held by Jeff Flake and Pat Toomey.
Flake just called for a change in House leadership. Said he expected Pence to run for minority leader and Shadegg for minority whip, and he would support them both.
Guns Up
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:11PM
Jeremy Lott looks ahead to 2008:
For what it's worth: If you put a gun to my head and ordered me to choose between Hillary Clinton and John McCain for president in '08, I would mark the ballot for Hillary. Then I would tell you to pull the trigger.
Re: Hynes's Latest Hit
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:09PM
Dave: I wouldn't hit McCain for the judicial deal -- it did lead to important confirmations. At least something got done, in other words, no mean achievement with this last Senate. Nor would I hit McCain on immigration and amnesty, which for the right in their opposition is a huge loser and which for McCain is a position consistent with this views from the Reagan years -- the McCain all of us loved. If conservatives want to cut their noses off to spite their faces on illegal immigration, they'll end up taking the Tancredo route into crankiness and irrelevance. Twelve million plus are not going to be deported. Unless you want economic collapse and huge instability, you'll seek out a practical solution. That's what politicians are supposed to do. Instead of confronting the welfare state, the right prefers to demand the building of walls and huge population transfers. That's not how to broaden your appeal.
Reveal the Scales!
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:08PM
Evan Derkacz at AlterNet:
Pelosi has said that she supports investigations but doesn't see impeachment as a goal. Of course, that was before the election when the threat of impeachment would have been a powerful rallying cry for Republicans.
RE: Hynes' Latest Hit
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:15PM
Wlady: Of course he isn't feeling confident. If your guy had been instrumental in preventing the Senate from taking the nuclear option on judical nominations and had sponsored an amnesty, how would you feel?
McCain is going to walk away from the '08 GOP primaries having his you-know-what handed to him and muttering, "The MSM didn't save me...."
Hynes' Latest Hit
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:04PM
Our friend Patrick Hynes is touting, I mean, taunting, Mitt Romney as the big loser yesterday. His employer John McCain -- whom Patrick doesn't refer to by name -- is no doubt pleased. In any case, so much for Republican unity at a time of need. And so much for Patrick's feeling confident about his man's chances down the road, despite McCain's near coronation last night as the key Republican left standing.
Pulling No Punches
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:02PM
Hugh Hewitt nails it:
Handed a large majority, the GOP frittered it away. The chief fritterer was Senator McCain and his Gang of 14 and Kennedy-McCain immigration bill, supplemented by a last minute throw down that prevented the NSA bill from progressing or the key judicial nominations from receiving a vote. His accomplice in that master stroke was Senator Graham. Together they cost their friend Mike DeWine his seat in the Senate, and all their Republican colleagues their chairmanships. Senator McCain should rethink his presidential run. Amid the ruins of the GOP's majority there is a clear culprit.Obviously, McCain, Graham and Frist aren't the only ones to blame, but many of the others, like Dennis Hastert, will be on their way back to the private sector.A second loser was Bill Frist. To be the Majority Leader of a majority that did not lead is lethal to his presidential ambitions. Like Senator McCain, it would be easier on everyone if he just exited the stage.
A Good Start for January
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 11:45AM
1. FIND veto stamp
2. BUY ink for veto stamp
3. ASK Alberto how Executive Privilege works again
Re: Jim Leach -- and David Hogberg
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 11:42AM
Quin: Jim Leach's defeat is a stunner, yes, though thanks to Dave Hogberg's report on Leach's district a few years back I wasn't at all surprised. It kept moving left on him, and he could only hold off the barbarians for so long before the walls crumbled.
One more thing about Dave Hogberg: he called this year's Senate races to a T, just as he did the Senate and Electoral College results in 2004. That's three perfect games he's now pitched, two more than Don Larsen.
Re: Not Just Mike Pence
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 11:22AM
In my own little knee-jerk, irrational, unbecoming gut reaction to the idea of Hensarling in leadership, I say this: Can we take a little break from the Texans for a while?
Not Just Mike Pence
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 11:02AM
Looks like Florida's Jeb Hensarling is also angling for a leadership position:
Hensarling Statement on Elections
"Republicans have experimented with Big Government and it has failed. The era of Republican Big Government is over"WASHINGTON, D.C. - Rep. Jeb Hensarling (TX-05) today issued the following this morning following Republican election losses:
"I am extremely disappointed with the outcome of today's elections. Our party will see many good public servants leave our ranks, taking our Majority with them. I am deeply saddened by their departure, and I wish each of my departing colleagues and their families the very best.
"With loss comes a time for reflection. As Republicans, it is time for our party to look in the mirror and reflect on where we have gone wrong. Today, the American people have sent us a clear message, and that message is that we've deviated from our principles and values.
"The American people empowered us because of a shared commitment to reform government, to balance federal budgets, and to promote individual freedom while remaining true to our American values. Instead, over the last several years, Republicans have experimented with big government, and we have now seen the result. The Bridge to Nowhere has led us here. The era of Republican Big Government is over.
"There is no doubt that great anxiety over the War in Iraq played a role in our defeat. There is also no doubt that the American people and our fellow Republicans grew sick and tired of the scandals that too often plagued our Majority. Yet, all of the problems that have led to the defeat of our Majority are traceable back to one issue: an out-of-control government.
"To return to our Majority, we must renew our commitment to the principles of Ronald Regan and the Contract of America. Our core vision of limited government, individual empowerment, a strong national defense and traditional values enabled us to effectively establish a trust with the American people. We will now return to these principles and communicate our vision effectively, building a new Republican Majority in the process."
Re: The Pence Campaign Begins
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:50AM
After reading the postmortem articles this morning, my first thought was to bounce back and support Pence for minority leader. In that spirit, I created a Pence for minority leader Facebook group. Turns out Pence already announced. We get results!
They Have To Spin, Even In Victory
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:37AM
From the National Committee to Preserve [sic] Medicare and Social Security:
The Voters have SpokenHey Barbara, can you show me one single race where Social Security reform was a "chief" issue? I'll be holding my breath waiting for your answer.
They Said "No, Thank you" to Privatization Candidates NationwideFrom Pennsylvania to Florida, voters have cast their ballots to "privatize" Congressional incumbents who've supported the President's plan to divert billions from Social Security to create risky private accounts. "Americans were clearly ready for a change. While many different issues drove voters to the polls yesterday, chief among them is the President's continuing plans to push the privatization of Social Security. Once again Americans have voiced their opposition to private accounts by casting votes against the President's key privatization supporters"
Barbara B. Kennelly,
President/CEO
Re: The Pence Campaign Begins
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:32AM
Phil: Compare Pence's candor with John Boehner's disingenuousness. This is from the statement Boehner issued late last night.
"I've said since January during my run for Majority Leader that that we as Republicans must return to the spirit of '94 and its focus on reform. The American people strongly supported our ideas and agenda in 1994, and they still do. We made progress this year by instituting greater fiscal discipline, rejecting some $45 billion in wasteful Democrat spending, enacting comprehensive earmark reform, and continuing to provide tax relief, but clearly we must do more and we must do better.
That's right, blame the Democrats for wasteful spending under the Republicans' watch.
RE: 2008 Looks Bad
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:31AM
Quin: Got to take issue with your Senate analysis. Most of the Republicans are in heavily red states (go here and look at the ones listed as "Class II"). The ones that are not--Coleman, Allard, Sununu, and Smith--are in states that are purple, not predominantly blue. Then there is Democrats Landrieu and Johnson, who are in states that are heavily red. They are far more vulnerable than any Republican.
Leaching Away
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:20AM
One big shock last night was the defeat of Iowa GOP Rep. Jim Leach. He's a centrist, one whose voting record ordinarily would not make him a particular favorite of conservatives. But there are two sorts of moderates: those who are just weak, as in lacking backbone, shifting in the wind rather than standing firmly for principles. Then there are the (rare) true moderates, people who actually do have a well-defined, well thought-out belief system that they can explain and defend and will do so with courage and grace, a belief sytem which puts them inthe middle of the political spectrum. Jim Leach is one of the latter. A very good man, a deep thinker, a little bit odd perhaps, but a man of principle. He particularly stood on principle in pursuing ethical problems in the Clinton administration. It is a shame he lost. He will be missed.
Forgettin' Who Brung Ya
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:19AM
So what was played at the victory party for North Carolina's newly elected House member, Heath Shuler?
The Tennessee fight song!
2008 Looks Bad
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:16AM
Not to throw an even wetter blanket on an already miserable situation, but a very quick examination of results does not offer much hope for a GOP return to power in 2008. In the House, with the Dems at 229 seats (and seven key ones still out, most of them probably Democratic when the votes are certified), I count only 15 seats in which Dems should expect a super-tough race in 2008. Meanwhile, whenever Chris Shays retires, his seat will certainly go Democrat. But if Simmons, Gerlach, or Fitzpatrick holds on, all three of those seats will STILL be prime targets for the Dems next time. Only two seats held by the Dems, the two Georgia ones (if they do indeed stay Dem), will be very hard for the Dems to defend. Meanwhile, in the Senate, the GOP is defending a whole lot more seats, including at least as many tough seats, as the Democrats are.
History Lesson
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 10:05AM
In May 1942, General Joseph Stilwell officially ordered the evacuation of
"IÂ claim we got a hell of a beating. We got run out of
RE: Referenda Update
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:57AM
Paul: The reason Arizona's amendment went down to defeat is that it was the only one to also ban domestic partnerships and civil unions. To me, this suggest that voters don't like gay marriage, but are only willing to ban it alone.
Eminent Domain
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:32AM
Nine states passed measures to limit or ban the government use of eminent domain to transfer property to another private entity. Only Communist California failed to pass its referendum to to restrict property takings.
The Backlash Begins
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:32AM
Already you're seeing people criticizing outgoing Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist for the failures in the Senate. Frist certainly deserves to take hits over his inability to control the likes of Sen. John McCain during legislative battles, but without Frist the election might have looked even worse. Tennessee right now is the only strategic hold the Republicans got on Tuesday night, and it was largely because the Frist operation saw Corker's problems earlier this year, took charge of the campaign and got him back on track. And while some Republicans - Allen, perhaps being the greatest offender - chose not to run on the judges issue, Corker, in fact, did. And he won. That wasn't an accident.
Re: Conservative Turnout Data
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:31AM
David, your criticisms are fair enough. I wrote my post more as a way to start a discussion rather than as a final judgement, and as I have more time to process data and hear the different arguments I may alter my view. From the outset, I just really wanted to view the data as objectively as possible. In our world, all the talk has been about conservative turnout, so I wanted to take a step back and make sure I wasn't missing the forest by focusing on a few trees. As someone who has written extensively on the impact of the dispirited base and who wants to see the Republican Party return to its small government roots, I have an interest in being able to prove that weak conservative turnout did the party in, but I also want to try and be fair--perhaps in my desire to be fair I went overboard in the opposite direction. My initial reaction though is that given the closeness of the Virginia race, a dropoff in conservative turnout may have cost Republicans the Senate, and possible some House seats, but the Democrats would probably have won the House comfortably anyway. So, weaker conservative turnout may have been one story in this election, but probably not the story of the election. But again, I'd love to hear opposing arguments.
The Pence Campaign Begins...
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:14AM
Mike Pence, likely candidate for Minority Leader, is out with this statement this morning:
"While the scandals of the 109th Congress harmed our cause, the greatest scandal in Washington, D.C. is runaway federal spending.
"After 1994, we were a majority committed to balanced federal budgets, entitlement reform and advancing the principles of limited government. In recent years, our majority voted to expand the federal government's role in education, entitlements and pursued spending policies that created record deficits and national debt.
"This was not in the Contract with America and Republican voters said, 'enough is enough.'
"Our opponents will say that the American people rejected our Republican vision. I say the American people didn't quit on the Contract with America, we did. And in so doing, we severed the bonds of trust between our party and millions of our most ardent supporters.
"As the 110th Congress convenes next year, Republicans must
cordially accept defeat and dedicate ourselves to advancing our
cause as the loyal opposition knowing that the only way to retake
our natural, governing majority, is to renew our commitment to
limited government, national defense, traditional values and
reform."
The Bright Side Is...
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 9:12AM
...America still exists! Oh, and the world's still got its money, too.
Nov. 7-Lyndon LaRouche issued the following statement at 3:30 PM EDT, Tuesday, Nov. 7 on the 2006 midterm elections.
"There is a pattern of unprecedented, wild irregularities in voting machine operations and voter suppression that would be impossible to carry out in a decentralized way. It is coming from the top. What has happened is that President Bush-or those who control him-have put into a play a major operation to suppress the vote because the Bush-Cheney circles knew that they were going to lose the election. The fraud is the result of the desperation of the pro-fascist Bush administration. What will happen under present circumstances, is that, if Bush pulls off this vote fraud, there will be a collapse of the international financial system and the United States will disappear as a result."
More Recriminations
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:55AM
There is already some talk of Sen. Rick Santorum making a play for a senior position in the Bush Administration, but there are some inside the party who would prefer he simply go away for a while after what is expected to be a light lame duck session, should one even occur.
The anger toward Santorum is palapable in some quarters, particularly among Republican strategists who felt the national party and Senatorial campaign committee should have cut back financial and other resouces to his floundering campaign and refocused those resources elsewhere, such as in Missouri, Maryland and Minnesota.
In the end though, it's doubtful that money was the downfall for Republicans, who walked away from some of their best issues and lost such important voting blocks as white, Roman Catholics. "Why we didn't push harder on the judges issue around the country is beyond me," says one longtime Republican observer. "We'd done a lot, but there was still more to be done." Similar thoughts go to Sen. George Allen's seeming desire to separate himself from the marriage amendment being voted on in Virginia. The amendment out-polled Allen, and easily won across the state.
Dem Strategy
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:47AM
Democrat strategists around town say that the new House Majority leadership has had a plan in place for PR efforts upon retaking the House. Look for it to unfold in the next 48 hours or so.
That plan does not involve putting potential new House Speaker Nancy Pelosi front and center by herself. Rather, modeled after what Republicans did in 1994, the Dems will be looking to elevate some of the fresh blood they have brought in.
Democrat conquering hero Rahm "Twinkle Toes" Emanuel is said to be touting Heath Shuler, the supposed moderate Democrat elected out of North Carolina, for a high profile in the coming few weeks. There are several other new members out of Indiana and Kentucky that might also be given a higher profile.
The message: "Ethics, getting out of Iraq, and realigning budget priorities," says the senior adviser to the Demcrat leadership. "With both Houses in our control, the budget has suddenly become a very big weapon for us to use. The Republicans have no idea what they are about to experience in the areas of budgeting and appropriations. And neither does the White House."
Re: Referenda Update
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:46AM
Correction to my post last night: Arizona did not pass a same-sex marriage ban.
Let the Recriminations Begin
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:42AM
Republicans will probably have a couple of additional seats to defend in the House, as by January, such longtime GOP leaders as Rep. Dennis Hastert will be looking to retire rather than deal with serving as a backbencher for potentially another few cycles.
"The reality is, we lost seats in areas where we probably aren't going to get them back for a few years," says a senior GOP strategist. "This is not a short-term issue as far as some of us are concerned. We need to get the problems out of the way and fix our party. Clean it up, as it were."
In the Senate, current Republicans campaign committee chairman, Sen. Elizabeth Dole will take the bulk of the hits on what turned out to be a disastrous election cycle that is leading into a potentially worse cycle in 2008. There is already talk of her mulling retirement from the Senate.
Also, look for the Rep. Mark Foley issue to again get the spotlight. The House Ethics committee has been collecting information for weeks on the matter, and now that Democrats are in charge, there will be no control over what gets leaked to the media. And what is going to be leaked will be damaging, we hear, to a number of Republicans.
On The Other Hand...
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 8:11AM
Here's something I'm not going to be so gracious about.
In 2004, I nailed both the Senate races and the electoral vote count for the Presidential race. Yet outside of the Spectator's readers, I recieved little notice. Unfortunately, I didn't do much to "spread the word" on the blogosphere.
Not this time. If I've nailed the Senate races for this election (and Montana is still a question mark) then every major blogger I can think of is going to get an email. So if you are reading this and can think of anyone to email this blop post to, please do so.
Sorry to toot my horn. But as I learned from '04, few notice your accomplishments unless you make some noise about them.
Some Magnanimity
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 7:59AM
I think we need to give some congratulations to the Democrats.
Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel ran an effective campaign. They kept the focus on the War and on the GOP scandals of the last two years. That was more than enough for victory.
It also appears that Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer have done the same for Senate Democrats.
So, congratulations on a hard-earned victory.
RE: Conservative Turnout Data
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 7:48AM
Phil: I have to disagree.
Midterm elections are usually decided by how well each side does among their base, so the 2% drop in conservatives surely did in a more than a few Republicans across the nation, especially with fairly close defeats in Missouri and, likely, Montana.
You are right that the War in Iraq was a big issue and helped Dems win the moderates. But a dispirited GOP base was a big part of the story this election.
A Few Bright Spots
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 7:38AM
Well, let's emphasize the positive, what little of it there is.
Governor Tim Pawlenty defied the polls and hung on in Minnesota.
On ballot initiatives, all of the bans on same-sex marriage passed, as did the ban on affirmative action in Michigan--despite it being outspent by something like 10-to-1.
And that's about it.
Re: Blue England Complete
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 6:24AM
Shawn. Damn. After the 2004 election, when New Hampshire started to go blue, it was common wisdom that the difference was expat Massachusetts types moving up -- i.e., the southern counties. But, if you looked at the county by county red-blue maps of 2000 and 2004, it was evident that the blue wave was coming from the west -- Vermont -- not the south. Be interesting to know how the regions broke out this time.
Conservative Turnout Data
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 5:46AM
Leading up to the election, one of the big debates on this blog and within the conservative community was whether the Republican Party's abandonment of conservative principles would hamper turnout on Election Day and deliver Congress to the Democrats. Now that Democrats have taken over the House and appear likely to win the Senate as well, it's only fair to try and assess whether lower conservative turnout was the culprit. I did a crude analysis based on the 2004 Presidential exit polls and 2006 Congressional exit polls, and I did find an erosion of support among conservatives, which may have been a factor in Virginia, but it does not account for the magnitude of the gains the Democrats made across the country.
First, my analysis compared the percentage of voters from each ideological category in the past two elections:
2004 2006
Liberal 21 21
Moderate 45 47
Conservative 34 32
As you can see, self-identified conservatives represented 2 percent less of the electorate in this election, while moderates accounted for 2 percent more of the electorate and the percentage of liberal voters remained constant.
Next, I looked at how each ideological category voted this year compared with 2004:
Kerry ('04) Dems. ('06) Bush ('04)
Reps. ('06)
Liberal 85 87 13
11
Moderate 54 61 45
38
Conservative 15 20 84
78
This shows that a lower percentage of conservatives voted for Republicans this year than voted for Bush in 2004, and more voted Democrat. While it would be easy to point to this alone as vindication of the theory that conservative angst sank the GOP, it deserves to be noted that moderates shifted to the Democrats in about the same numbers, but since moderates make up a higher portion of the electorate, their shift had a more significant effect on the election results.
According to exit polls, in the Virginia race that will decide the Senate, Allen actually had more support among conservatives than Bush did in 2004, but conservatives made up a higher percentage of the state's electorate two years ago and the percentage of liberals increased this year:
2004 2006
Liberal 17 21
Moderate 45 44
Conservative 38 35
Kerry ('04) Webb Bush ('04)
Allen
Liberal 83 88 17
12
Moderate 57 60 42
40
Conservative 15 12 85 88
So, to the extent that this data is reliable, you could make an argument that relatively lower conservative turnout in Virginia may have cost Republicans the Senate.
However, given the number of seats Democrats picked up on
Tuesday, it would be myopic to simply blame lower conservative
turnout and skyrocketing government spending. As much as I'd like
to believe that big government Republicanism was to blame for these
election results, it seems pretty apparent that the election went
the way it did because of Bush, Iraq, and Republican corruption.
Final House Update
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 4:23AM
In races that have been called, so far Republicans have done better than I predicted in 2 races and worse in 5 race, while Democrats have gained three seats that weren't even on my radar. If the rest of my predictions hold, that adds up to a 231-204 House (a net 28-seat gain). If Democrats sweep the rest of the districts I've been following, their majority will get as wide as 236-199 (a net 33-seat gain); if Republicans sweep them, the Democrats' majority will stay as narrow as 227-208 (a net 24-seat gain).
The results of some of these races aren't going to be known for a while, possibly for days, so I don't recommend waiting up; I certainly won't be. Here's my final tally before bed.
Kudos to the Ohio GOP
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 3:22AM
I expected losses in Ohio to form the core of the Democratic takeover tonight-- I predicted they'd lose 3 out of 4 contested seats. Instead, they only lost one, the district vacated by Abramoff-scandal-disgraced Bob Ney. Sure, the Dems made up the ground elsewhere, but it's still worth noting that in bad circumstances Ohio Republicans did pretty well. (Yes, I've updated the House scorecard.)
Referenda Update
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 2:52AM
Colorado: No to domestic partnerships while banning same-sex marriage. And no legalization of marijuana.
Idaho: Bans same-sex marriage.
Oregon: No to requiring parental notification and 48-hour waiting period before a minor can receive an abortion.
South Dakota: Bans same-sex marriage but no to medical marijuana.
Overall, all states with same-sex marriage bans on the ballot passed them. All states with minimum wage increase referenda passed them.
Talent Is Conceding
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 2:28AM
It's official. And as Quin notes, there's little chance of things going Allen's way in Virginia. The Hogberg record looks safe.
No Chance for Allen
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 2:22AM
I don't know why the TV stations are so slow on this, but the Virginia Secretary of State's web site continues to update the vote totals, and the numbers are substantially higher than Fox or CNN show. But the word is very bad for the Allen recount idea. With just nine precincts left to count, at least one ot two of them from a heavily Democratic congressional district, Allen now trails by 7,811 votes, 1,167,037 to 1,159,226. This means the Senate is pretty much lost, because Talent and Burns also look like goners.
Claire McCaskill
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 2:15AM
She seems to be declaring victory at the moment, though no one has called the race yet.
Crow
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 2:04AM
Does anybody out there have any good recipes for crow? I need to eat a lot of it.
Bill Kristol Calls It
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:24AM
"If you had to bet right now, you'd bet on a Democratic Senate." (1:02 a.m.)
House Update
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:20AM
Some more results have come in, including another one that wasn't on my radar: The Democrats picked up Kansas's 1st. Jim Geraghty notes that one handicapper ranked that number 60 on his list of most competitive districts, which goes to show how hard it is to know what's going on in every single House district.
Will My Record Hold?
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:04AM
Well, Tennessee has now been called for Corker, I haven't missed yet.
Burns appears to be going down in Montana, Webb has a slight lead in Virginia, and McCaskill leads in Missouri. If those hold, I've done it again.
It would be bittersweet. More bitter than sweet.
Virginia
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 1:02AM
Not only is it so close that there could be a recount, there are still some absentee ballots outstanding-- some precincts closed up without finishing their count. We're not going to hear the end of this one until tomorrow at the very earliest.
Hanging By a Thread
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:54AM
North Carolina's 8th District -- again, supposed to be a "Likely Republican" seat -- is currently led by incumbent Robin Hayes by a 50.19 to 49.81 percent margin over the $35 candidate, Democrat Larry Kissell. The challenger's big gimmick in this race was to spend a day giving away gasoline at $1.22 per gallon -- the price when Hayes first entered office. A big part of this district represents Fayetteville (Fort Bragg).
Virginia
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:42AM
Jim Webb leads by about 2,200 votes with almost 100% of precincts counted.
Minority Leader ?
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:37AM
Lot of speculation on FoxNews earlier about whether Dennis Hastert will step down. I hope so.
Question is, who will replace him? Here's my vote.
Iowa
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:17AM
Yep, Culver wins. Third gubernatorial loss in a row for the Iowa GOP.
Oh Crap...
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:07AM
Back in September I wrote this about all those conservatives eager to see a GOP loss in the House:
There are other areas where the Bush Administration could cut deals with House Democrats that should disturb conservatives. With the Democrats in charge, a Senate-style immigration bill -- i.e., amnesty -- is far more likely to pass the House. From there it is a quick trip through the Senate to Bush's signing pen.
Just heard on FoxNews that the word from the White House is that there might be room to deal on immigration reform that was blocked by the GOP in the House.
Bugger.
More New Hampshire
Posted by on 11.8.06 @ 12:05AM
Both Congressional districts go Democratic and, then, this from the Union Leader:
MANCHESTER - 11:32 p.m.: The Associated Press reports that the Democrats have clinched control of the New Hampshire House for the first time since 1911. Their current count in the 400-member chamber: 213-153 Democratic. Staggering GOP losses in Manchester and Strafford County were part of the landslide.
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
Speaker Pelosi
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:57PM
Gonna take a little time to get used to saying that.
And get ready for all the glowing news stories about "the first woman Speaker in the history of the House." It will be cloying, to say the least
WaPo Pulls Its Call in MD, Continued
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:56PM
Michael Barone just gave a convincing explanation for why Fox is sticking with its call for Cardin. Steele's totals in more conservative counties just aren't high enough to think he's still got a chance.
Great Ideas Ignored
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:56PM
I've now seen McCain and Mehlman, in somber tones, speak tonight about recommitment to Republican principles like "limited government" and "reduced spending," etc. Should have thought of that a few years ago, guys.
Somebody Just Found a Sunbeam
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:53PM
John Podhoretz at NRO:
WHAT DEMOCRACY SHOULD BE:
Happy or suicidal with tonight's results, something colossal and profoundly important has happened in the United States beginning in 2000 - the re-engagement of the American people with politics. We have had four enormously consequential elections in a row now in which voters have cast their ballots in numbers that we were told we'd never see in our lifetimes. I don't see how you can view this as anything but a wondrous development for the United States.
CNN, FOX, ABC: Dems Win House
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:52PM
I'm now at the Democratic Party shindig at the Hyatt, where it's a packed house and obviously a much different scene. Kool and the Gang's "Celebration" was just playing.
South Dakota Abortion Ban...
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:50PM
...rejected by the state's voters, CNN says.
Dem House, Officially
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:49PM
Enough Dem pickups have been added to make up the margin. Among them: TX-22, Tom Delay's district. Clearly the write-in mechanism was too tough to operate. But this is automatically the most likely Republican pickup for 2008.
One district that I didn't even mention has flipped to the Dems: New Hampshire's 2nd, which Andrew and Shawn discuss below.
Blue England Complete
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:48PM
Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley, despite a nine point lead or thereabouts lead in most polls, has conceded to anti-war challenger Carol Shea-Porter. This is an honest-to-goodness shocker. The State Senate here is likewise heading Democratic and we are already being promised a smoking ban. Super. Let the dismantlement of rugged individualism begin. Forgive me if I end up looking a bit epicene upon my next visit to Washington, D.C., friends. Something in the Massachusetts water must be leaking across the border.
No Ariz. Voter Lottery
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:40PM
Arizona says no to an election lottery, which would have awarded $1 million to a randomly selected voter through a drawing.
Webb, Interrupted
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:31PM
"This is a very very close race as all of you know..."
"This is, uh, yeah, we're gonna win. We're gonna win."
"We've been following this within [sic] great detail
upstairs..."
"It looks very very good for our side..."
"It's gonna take a while to count all the rest of these
votes..."
"I want you to stay with us on this...it's gonna take a while."
"At some point very soon, I think we're gonna be on top."
Michigan's Proposition 2
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:27PM
Michigan, according to CNN's projection, has voted to "prohibit...state entities from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin." Goodbye affirmative action.
Looking Good For Negron/Foley
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:21PM
Negron/Foley within about 3,000 votes, and they still haven't counted the heavily Republican Highlands County.
Taylor Goes Down
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:18PM
Republican Rep. Charles Taylor just conceded to Heath Shuler in North Carolina's 11th District race.
House Race Scorecard
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:17PM
Instead of cluttering the blog with a new post for every House race called, from now on I'll just update this post and link back to it every hour or so. The middle column indicates my prediction: + means gain, - means hold. When I'm right I'll add a /, when I'm wrong an X. (Remember, my prediction was a 223-212 Democratic majority.)
The question mark next to IN-9 refers to this situation.
KY-3 +D /Also add New Hampshire's 1st district, which wasn't even on my radar, to the Dem pickup total. Another that wasn't on my radar that the Dems picked up: Kansas's 1st district. And another: The Dems pick up NY-19.
KY-4 -R /
GA-8 +R
GA-12 -D
IN-2 +D /
IN-8 +D /
IN-9 +D / (?)
FL-13 -R /
FL-16 -R X
FL-22 -R X
OH-1 +D X
OH-2 -R /
OH-15 +D X
OH-18 +D /
TX-22 +D /
NH-2 +D /
CT-2 -R
CT-4 -R
CT-5 -R X
PA-4 -R X
PA-6 +D
PA-7 +D /
PA-10 +D /
IL-6 -R
IL-10 -R /
NC-11 +D /
AZ-5 -R X
AZ-8 +D /
NY-20 +D /
NY-24 +D /
CO-4 -R
CO-7 +D /
NM-1 +D
IA-1 +D /
CA-11 +D
Virginia, Slim III; Man of Steele
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:16PM
As of now, the Green Party vote is throwing the election to Allen. As of now. It's a killer 23,000 votes. ABC has chosen not to mention this.
Steele: "hang in with me tonight." More counting, more precincts, more absentees. "This is an incredible night, because the world is looking at Maryland." Well, as SecDef says, goodness. "A whole lot of fight left in me," sez Steele. "I intend to go as long and as far and as hard as I have to to take this seat. [...] There's food, there's drink, there's time...God bless you." Now that's a pep rally.
Another Scandal-Related Loss for GOP
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:16PM
CNN just showed Joe Negron (Republican running for Mark Foley's seat) conceding.
Clay Shaw
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:11PM
"Not low-hanging fruit." ABC. Flashbacks to Oliver Stone's JFK.
Weldon also being zonked. "Touched by scandal."
Rahm, their Emanuel
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 11:02PM
Looking a little woozy, a little droopy-eyed. I think he just said "Ken-wuck-ey." It has been a long day. I suppose.
Blue New England
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:58PM
New Hampshire is going blue, folks. It's a Democrat wave. Charlie Bass, NH-02, has conceded, and the left-wing outisder candidate that no one gave a chance is leading in the 1st District with 79 percent of the precincts reporting. Rep. Jeb Bradley could still win the First, but right now the Moveon.org candidate is leading. In Republican New Hampshire. The Democrats are gaining in the state Senate, House and Executive Council (an elected executive board designed to weaken the governor). All of New England is now blue.
More Ballot Initiatives
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:58PM
As projected by CNN:
Arizona approves English as its official language.
Nevada and Ohio raise their minimum wages.
Wisconsin bans same-sex marriage.
Virginia, Slim II
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:55PM
Look here to see Loudon and Prince William counties: with less than half the precincts reporting, Webb's up in both. Down to the wire we go.
Please Let Me Be Wrong...
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:46PM
...oh please, oh please. Talent is leading in Missouri with 20% of precincts reporting. If McCaskill wins, those cynical, manipulative Michael J. Fox ads will re-appear in many elections to come.
The Party I'm At, Update
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:39PM
The Pugliaresi's are the gracious hosts for the party this evening. The food has been great!
Virginia Absentee Ballots
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:35PM
According to the AP:
Bigger Wage in Big Sky
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:31PM
Montanans also voted tonight to raise their minimum wage. I'm going to march into the office tomorrow and get my co-workers to vote ourselves a raise.
Legal Dispute in IN-9?
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:31PM
Immediately after calling it a Dem pickup, Fox just reported that a problem with absentee ballots could be litigated. Ugh.
Fox Calls CT-5 for the Dems
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:27PM
Darn-- this is the first race to defy my predictions.
Virginia, Slim
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:27PM
A little scattershot, but these unofficial Virginia results update every 2 minutes. Hat tip: Will Schlickenmaier.
Oops...
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:26PM
FoxNews just called CT-5 for the Dem Murphy. Well, so much for that theory.
Iowa
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:20PM
Given how much the Iowa GOP sucks, I'm betting Culver wins the governor's race.
NOVA
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:17PM
Anyone else hearing Mehlman-attributed murmurs about the Northern Virginia results already having clicked in?
The Party I'm At
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:16PM
I'm at a nice place in Georgetown, and the party is beginning to break up. Another harbinger of doom?
I'll need to find out who the gracious hosts are.
RE: That All-Important District Attorney Race
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:14PM
If I was cynical, I'd say that it proves there is no justice in the world. Wait, I am cynical.
That All-Important District Attorney Race
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:10PM
Mike Nifong wins the Duke Lacrosse referendum.
Rhode Island Logic for You
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:05PM
Paula Zahn and Bill Schneider just discussed how Lincoln Chafee received a sixty-something percent approval rating by exit poll respondents, yet still lost, because he belongs to the Iraq War party (even though he voted against it).
Huh?
Re: Ehrlich Ending
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:04PM
Ouch indeed. This was a close one, but it isn't a surprise after the news in the Cardin/Steele race.
Ehrlich Ending
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:03PM
FoxNews just called Maryland's gubernatorial race for O'Malley. Ouch.
Senate Dem, But Not The House?
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:02PM
It's early, but you have to wonder if that might happen. Looking at some of the key Connecticut House races, the GOP candidates are hanging on. Although, it is still early there too.
Fox Calls FL-13 a Republican Hold
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:02PM
The first of my GOP-friendly predictions comes true...
Another in Indiana
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 10:00PM
Fox has called IN-2 for the Democrat. Now two out of the three Dem pickups I predicted in Indiana are in; still waiting on IN-9.
Most Important Data Point
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:54PM
In case you missed it, Michael Barone said, on Fox, that they were throwing out the exit polls because they were biased toward Dems by 6 to 8 points. Stay tuned. This is going to be a long night.
Two North Carolina Races
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:53PM
As expected, Heath Shuler and Rep. Charles Taylor are running neck-and-neck in Western North Carolina.
But somewhat unexpectedly, N.C. 8th District Rep. Robin Hayes is experiencing a very tough challenge from Democrat Larry Kissell, who at one point had only $35 in his campaign coffers. At worst some pundits had this race only in the "Likely Republican" category.
Re: Cardin
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:52PM
Meanwhile at the New York Times (I know, I know) Steele is up 68% with 0 reporting. But if it will be a "long night," we may as well ask aloud if the Senate is toast. And if it is -- was I right that even with both houses the Dems can't get any traction?
Rhode Island
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:50PM
Fox just called it for Whitehouse. So a real Democrat will replace a fake one.
RE: Fox Calls For Cardin
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:47PM
John: I beat you. Ha-ha!
Seriously, though, I too am surprised they were able to call it so early. I had hoped that it would be close enough that they wouldn't be able to call it until at least 50% of the precincts reported.
Anyway, that is probably a bellweather of things to come. Had it been close, the GOP could probably be confident of hanging on to either Missouri or Montana (or maybe both). Now, it's going to be a long night.
Steele Over
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:45PM
So much for Fox's Steele boomlet in Maryland. Brit Hume just called it for Cardin. Oh well. Steele, though he didn't exactly let you know, was running as a Republican.
CNN Calls for Yarmuth in KY-3
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:45PM
Another win for the robopollsters. (Look under 6:00 PM if you don't know what I'm talking about.)
Granite State Crumbles?
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:44PM
In New Hampshire Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley is having a much tougher time holding on against anti-war candidate Carol Shea-Porter than expected, despite one of the state's most liberal papers issuing this scathing editorial grudgingly endorsing Bradley. In the other district, Charlie Bass is facing hard times as well.
AmSpec contributor and Union Leader Editorial Page Editor Andrew Cline has the goods liveblogging here. He writes: "It's still early, but in New Hampshire, things are looking very, very good for Democrats. I've heard the following metaphors so far: Tsunami, tidal wave, and wipeout."
Webb-Allen; Cardin-Steele
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:42PM
Only 10,000 votes seperate them with 77% of precincts voting.
Fox, ABC calling it for Cardin.
It's looking like whoever wins that Virginia seat will take the Senate.
Fox Calls For Cardin
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:41PM
I expected it, but it still stings. I'm a bit surprised it came this early in the night, though.
Virginia
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:40PM
It is nip and tuck between Allen and Webb right now, with over 70% of precincts reporting. A lot will depend on how many precincts in Northern Virginia are reporting. If none or few have, you can probably kiss Allen goodbye.
And Now the Commercials
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:37PM
The all-new Infiniti G -- "engineered to alter your experience." My experience? Sorry, which experience?
The homeless walk -- volunteering "felt like the right thing to do." And as for whether or not it actually was the right thing to do?
How much more vague can our wants become before they disappear?
Kisses to Joe
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:34PM
Fox now projects a Lieberman win. So much for Iraq being a losing issue.
SC Joins Va. and Tenn.
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:25PM
South Carolina is the third state tonight to ban same-sex marriage, according to CNN.
Enthusiastic Schumer
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:17PM
Just saw an ebullient Schumer on TV announcing Democratic pickups in Ohio and Pennslyvania to a cheering crowd. He said that they feel confident in Virginia, with many Democrtatic precincts in northern Virginia yet to be counted. But what struck me most was the contrast between the enthusiastic scene there and the rather quiet scene here at the NRSC. Libby Dole was down here about a half an hour ago saying she felt confident that they would retain the majority. When asked why things were so dead here compared with on the Democratic side, she played it down and said there would be plenty of time to celebrate down the road. Obviously, this is just anecdotal, but figured I'd pass it on and you can interpret it how you like.
RE: Santorum Loses
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:13PM
No surprise, but for conservatives it's gonna hurt.
Re: DeWon't
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:09PM
Brit Hume just explained that Fox was holding off on calling Ohio while the polls were held open in some precincts; they went ahead and called it after broadcasting live footage of Chuck Schumer claiming victory there.
DeWon't
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 9:06PM
The herd thins. It's an MSNBC call -- and an exit poll based on 9,000 votes -- but it's a call.
Brit Slip
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:54PM
I think Brit Hume just unveiled his view on an issue by accident. In a discussion with Jim Angle about the projection of Tennessee's passage of a ban on same-sex marriage, Hume responded "Oh, great," then tacked on that "it's good we can go ahead and project something...."
That Allen-Webb Race
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:52PM
Wow! It's up and down like a yo-yo! I'm getting dizzy.
Oh, wait, that's the two glasses of wine I've had.
Re: Kentucky Results
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:44PM
In district 3, Yarmuth (D) now up 50.3-48.5 over Northrup (R), with 81% of precincts reporting. It's difficult to see how Republicans could retain the House if those results hold.
Not Ready For Primetime.
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:43PM
Such a big night, and what do the networks show? Dancing With the Stars and related primetime fare. You'd think there was a national party convention going on. More curious still: at the top of the hour Washington, D.C.'s NBC affiliate went local for a few moments to give results of the Allen-Webb race -- with 10 percent of the vote in, Allen was ahead 52-43 percent. Don't these people read Drudge? At that point he was already showing the race tied with some 30 percent of the vote in.
Tennessee Marriage, Missouri Wages
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:42PM
CNN says Tennessee has passed it's own marriage amendment, and Missouri via ballot initiative has raised its minimum wage.
Re: Salty Exit Polls
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:36PM
That Virginia number seems particularly suspect. It's hard to imagine Webb won by 5.
Still Doing the Splits
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:32PM
VA SEN [27.55% IN]
ALLEN 313,736 49.23%
WEBB 313,736 49.54%
Drudge reports. If this reflects a broader
trend, it has been an inevitably unbearable one that has extended a
remarkable six years. More or less down-the-line parity, begun more
or less in 2000, has continued with mild fluctuations at the
federal and state levels. The implication,
if things cut Democratic, as it seems certain they will, is that
the GOP has hit a high water mark -- among conservatives, and that
has eroded, for reasons we all know. The enduring question may be
whether Republicans over the past six years have lost more from the
top (swing votes) or the bottom (base).
Indiana 08 Goes Democrat
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:22PM
Fox News just called Indiana's 8th for Ellsworth over Hostettler. That's the one of the three GOP incumbents there that was most expected to turn Democrat.
Exit Polls (Serve With Salt)
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 8:20PM
These have been floating around on a few blogs, so I thought I'd pass them along, even though I don't think they mean that much; at least some of these almost certainly underpoll Republicans thanks to exit pollsters' bias toward urban areas.
Democrats leading:Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)Republicans leading:
Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)
Marriage = Marriage
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 7:50PM
CNN [you know where to find it: Ed.] projects that an amendment to the Virginia Constitution defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman will pass.
Can the country really stand a state-by-state definition of marriage? I'd like to think so, on federalist principle. But marriage has a legal as well as a technical definition, and ultimately the future fight may well be over the right of couples in civil unions to not feel stigmatized by the offical withholding of the honorific "marriage." Since such claims can ultimately only be resolved at the national level, or so we believe, my crystal ball saith the Supreme Court will ultimately be forced by the People to issue either one Smackdown or the Other.
Apologies to Paul. "Please don't make me redundant!"
More Warmup Predictions
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 7:42PM
With this postmodern conservative stuck grappling with Max Weber's charismatic calling, the esteemed Dr. Lawler at No Left Turns issues another drumroll:
Nobody much is saying the Democrats have a plan or could do better; it's more that the administration needs the wake-up call. I'm not evaluating these claims today, although obviously a vote that will comfort our enemies and make the president's tough job of adjusting the course more difficult isn't the remedy I recommend to those who make them. But there's no doubt in my mind that we will feel their strength today in the House elections. It's good to remember that lots of people voting Democratic today agree more with the Republicans on most issues.
Read the whole thing here, as the iceberg pokes slowly out of the dark.
Not a Good Sign
Posted by on 11.7.06 @ 7:28PM
Is this final proof the Republicans don't have their house in order? Just received a call from an insistent if sweet-sounding taped female voice saying she's from the RNC and reminding me that it's still not too late to vote today for low taxes and a secure future. Polls in Virginia, she added, will remain open today until 7:00 p.m. So how come I received the call at 7:03 p.m.?