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Saturday, January 14, 2006
Zawahiri Alive?
Posted by on 1.14.06 @ 5:09PM
There are several interesting aspects of the apparent failure of the CIA to kill al-Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri. First, for us to be mounting such an attack on Pakistani soil requires first intelligence sufficient to justify the mission and second, permission from the Pakistani government to do it. The latter, since 2001, has been regularly supplied though best concealed. For example, when mounting the attack on the Taliban, the Pakistanis allowed American landings on their soil, but only between dark and dawn. The lengths to which we went to help Pakistan conceal its assistance to us were considerable. That such a mission would be mounted openly now indicates that Musharraf believes his grip on power is greater than it was four years ago.
Second, though we did mount this operation on Pakistani soil, the failure of the mission gives rise to the question of whether the rules of engagement Pakistan has agreed to may have compromised it. Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI, was one of the creators of the Taliban. How much were we required to tell the ISI, and did they warn Zawahiri?
Third, and perhaps most important, is whether the intelligence we acted on was Pakistani, our own, from a third source, or a combination of one or more. Our apparently increasing confidence level in the intel -- if justified -- could be the basis for more action in Pakistan. And in Iran.
Re: Zawahiri Dead?
Posted by on 1.14.06 @ 1:24PM
Dave, Jed: In case you missed it, John Batchelor called it right late last night, in this note in response to "Zawahiri Dead?" which is posted under the "View Comments" to that item:
"See report, am not checking tonight, but am following orthodox response, which Jed follows as carefully, no confirm, no confirm. Wait on this. No confirm."
Friday, January 13, 2006
Zawahiri Dead?
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 9:26PM
"Dr." Ayman al-Zawahiri, the al Qaeda No.2, may have been killed by a US air strike in Pakistan. The forensic tests on the remains will be finished in a few days. But what if he is dead? Bin Laden himself has not been seen -- even on video -- for a year. Rumors of his death are usually tied to kidney disease. And his disease is probably an urban legend. If bin Laden is dead, it is probably for other reasons. If Zawahiri is dead, al Qaeda has lost its most visible presence on the world stage. But has it lost more important assets to other American efforts? Remember the letter Zawahiri sent to Zarqawi in Iraq last summer? In which Zawahiri asked his subordinate for a coupla hundred grand to keep the old school colors flying? Al-Q is now little more than a franchise operation. If Zawahiri is dead, it may have lost more than its operational commander. Most importantly, it may have lost the ability to conceal bin Laden. If Zawahiri is dead, and bin Laden still alive, OBL will have to risk making videos and communicating with his operators and franchises by courier and otherwise. And the more often he communicates, by any means whatever, the more likely we are to get him.
Iran and the U.S.
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 3:39PM
President Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said all the right things on Friday morning, and they appear to be doing the right things too.
According to State Department sources, State Department European expert negotiator Nicholas Burns will be traveling to Europe for meeting early next week to coordinate the united response to Iran's nuclear threats. It appears the United States is now ready to take more of an active role, after leaving negotiations with Iran to European nations for the past two years.
Donner, Party of Zero?
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 3:30PM
American history buffs will enjoy reading about archeologists' findings regarding the Donner Party's ill-fated winter at Alder Creek. Conflicting stories by survivors led researchers to sift through the primary cooking site. Among 16,000 bone fragments found in that spot, none turned out to be human. Of course, this doesn't conclusively discount Donner cannibalism, but sheds significant doubt on the claims.
Damascus Daggerfest
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 3:08PM
Syria fratricide update from trusted source. London and MI6 have hold of General Ali Dubah of the Syrian Air Force, who defected last week to give up the secrets of the al-Assads and to pose a deal for the regime change in Damascus. Ali Dubah offers Rifaat al-Assad, exiled brother of the dead king Hafez al-Assad. London favors this choice because it would team a restored Alawite regime with elements of the Sunni urban elite and also with the Druze of Lebanon and Syria -- the one constituency that London trusts in the region.
Paris and Saudi elements (ancient Crown Prince Sultan and his lean, hungry son Bandar) have a sharply different approach to regime change. They want Khaddim, the Paris-defected vice president who now routinely goes on French TV and rats out the al-Assads as the Macbeths of Damascus. Khaddim wants the crown for himself, and this would ally him with the Moslem Brothers (slaughtered by Rifaat al-Assad in 1982) and with the tribals of the Iraq border region. Khaddim would also continue the insurgency in Iraq in order to maintain the loyalty of the black marketeering tribals. The Saudi elements like this solution because it would keep Iraq in turmoil. Any stable democratic Iraq threatens the Arabian plutocrats.
Doomed, penniless Egypt likes a Sunni urban elite, tribals, Moslem Brother solution as well, but not with the regicidal traitor Khaddim. Hosni Mubarak wants to maintain the clumsy Bahsar al-Assad in power in order to demonstrate that a weakling son can succeed a bullying father, establishing an Ummah precedent for Hosni passing his throne to half-pint Jamal Mubarak without civil war on the Nile.
Iran has gory appetitites too, to maintain the insurgency and keep Iraq bootless; but Iran also worries about losing its access to Damascus and the HizbAllah Shiites of southern Lebanon, so Iran must make a deal with whoever wins in the Damascus daggerfest.
London versus Paris. MI6 versus Deuxieme Bureau. Cairo versus Riyadh. Iran vs. London, Paris, Riyadh. Cairo vs. Cairo. And the United States is completely beside the point, a non respected player, a muscle boy with might and fight but no harem spy cunning. These are the days of the secret war for Syria. Expect daggers, bombs, demarches, betrayals, and a fight to the finish of the brothers al-Assads.
DOCEX is Scheherazade
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 2:32PM
Pleasure to see The Connection author Stephen Hayes's Sam-Spade-work digging into the still unavailable documents of Saddam Hussein's terror regime featured in today's WSJ lead editorial.
Spoke to Steve last Friday the 6th, when he published online at Weekly Standard a summary of the search for the truth so far, to reveal that only fifty thousand of an estimated two million captured documents have yet been translated and archived. The project is titled DOCEX, and it goes slowly and without any P.R. from the Bush team or the DOD. What we have so far, from just the period 1999 to 2002, points to three terror training centers in Iraq, at Ramadi, Sammara, Salman Pak, where the regime ran a rent-a-jihad program for a witch's brew of terror gangs.
Documents also point to chemical and biological weapons training, but the mother lode is the documented linkage with Al Q, which is extensive, detailed, confirmed and confirmed and confirmed. We can presume the links to Iran's IRGC, Syria's Assadists, and the homicidal HizbAllah are also layered throughout DOCEX: dates, cash pay-offs; and we can dream of finding thank you notes from such as gab-gifted rats who are also central London MPs as well as from pompous, sartorial international civil servants now making kiss and make-up calls to Tehran.
The lone explanation for why Team Rumsfeld has kept this satanic treasure chest from us is that there was fear of selective translating by the oppo teams during the '04 campaign. Steve Hayes points to Steve Cambone at DOD as the gatekeeper; but Steve also told me that that is changing or will change shortly. There is no longer any rational explanation for why we don't have these documents. This is evidence that can be used right now for the hot pursuit of criminals to Damascus, Moscow, Paris, Pyongyang. Every suspicion, every name, every twisted motive is somewhere in those papers, because the Saddamists imitated the Berliners in documenting the villainy.
DOCEX is Scheherazade. When we get that doc mountain range dumped on us, there are dozens of careers to be made by journalists, investigators, politicians, statesman, prosecutors, lawyers and the odd historian in retelling the thousand and one vices of Baghdad and its evil djinns.
John Flym Now Testifying
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 11:44AM
RedState did its homework on this lefty law prof so you don't have to. What did they find? An appearance with Howard Zinn in support of Cambridge, Mass., passing a nuclear-free resolution and defense of a domestic terrorist group. The American Bar Association has already dismissed (pdf) Flym's Vanguard claims against Sam Alito, so this raving is just gravy after a week of Democrat rambling.
Checking Bill's Facts
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 11:18AM
A LexisNexis search quickly debunks Bill Clinton's explanation of the failure of his health care proposal.
The first item comes from the Nov. 20, 1994 Washington Times:
But the DLC's growing hostility over the Clinton White House's move from New Democrat ideas really began last fall, when the president unveiled his health care reform plan.
DLC leaders flatly rejected the government-run plan crafted by first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, saying it was an old liberal proposal that could not pass.
At the time, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, a DLC vice chairman, said the plan was "too big, too costly, too bureaucratic."
Publicly, DLC leaders who wanted a cheaper, more market-oriented plan kept their criticism focused on the policy implications of the health care issue. Privately, some of them criticized Mrs. Clinton for pushing the plan on the party and giving Republicans a chance to use it to define her husband as "another big-government liberal."
Looks like costly, ineffective liberalism killed it, even among Democrats. And even the New York Times acknowledged many other factors in its Sept. 27, 1994 health care "reform" postmortem, prominently among them the White House's ineptitude:
The defeat ought to trigger an orgy of blame, and there is no shortage of deserving recipients. White House insistence on secret deliberations produced a bill that no one on Capitol Hill was committed to support. A politically inept health adviser, Ira Magaziner, designed a legislative behemoth that scared most members of Congress -- and the public. Hillary Rodham Clinton alienated the pharmaceutical industry and other interest groups that she ultimately needed to push reform through Congress. Demagogic special-interest lobbying and cynical Republican obstructionism designed by Bob Dole in the Senate and Newt Gingrich in the House played a role in the final stall. So did the listless advocacy of Mr. Mitchell and puzzling embrace of defeat by Mr. Clinton and his disorganized White House staff. There will be plenty of time to figure who did the most damage.
Donald Lambro, writing in the Sept. 22, 1994 Washington Times chalked it up to transparency: once Americans saw what they'd be getting, they tossed it out on its ear:
The Clintons blame the defeat of their plan to nationalize the health care system on wicked, powerful and greedy special interests and a litany of lies about what their plan would have done.
But in the final analysis their bureaucratic concoction and its House and Senate Democratic substitutes fell under their own weight.
Their opponents, using the democratic power of the mass media, merely had to explain what the plans contained and what they would have done to the most modern health care system in the world, to business costs, jobs and ultimately to our entire economy.
But the yearlong story behind the unraveling of the Clintons' attempt to push the heavy hand of government much deeper into our lives and our economy is more complicated than that. And a review of the mistakes they made should be instructive to future would-be social engineers.
Teddy's Own CAP
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 11:03AM
It should come as no surprise that the man from Hyannisport belongs to an exclusive group of Harvard students and alumni, the Owl Club.
Clinton Transcript
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 10:45AM
On this morning's "Morning Edition" on NPR, Steve Inskeep interviewed Bill Clinton about worldwide health issues. In the course of discussing his efforts arould the world, Inskeep raised the 1993-94 HillaryCare fight:
Clinton: Well, I don't know if I have any advice for him, but I think that what we tried to do back in '93 and '94, still has some relevance. The real problem was that we didn't have any money 'cause we had a big deficit so we couldn't provide universal coverage without some sort of employer mandate.
Inskeep: Also couldn't build enough political support for a specific solution in '93 and '94.
Clinton: Yeah, well, that was because we had big opposition from the health insurance companies. I
think people now see that for what it is. We are spending 16
percent of our income on health care. No other country spends more
than 11 [percent]. We spend more on the last two months of life
than anyone else. And we also have a lot of defensive medicine
because malpractice insurance is so expensive. If we had more
self-insurance in big pools, we could also bring that price way,
way down.
Bremer Backs Down
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 9:18AM
There was a bit of consternation among Pentagon leaders when L. Paul Bremer's book about his
"First, repairing the damage to
"Last, much attention has been paid to my concern about the need to retain adequate manpower to defeat the terrorists and insurgents. Our military leaders said they had sufficient forces to ensure law and order, and that additional soldiers might increase Iraqi hostility. Theirs was a respectable argument. But I disagreed with it. And while I had concerns about the quality of Iraqi forces two years ago, their training has since been revamped. Today they are playing an increasingly important role in defending
Bremer is being honorable about the disagreement, but not entirely about when it occurred. If he said anything about it to DoD, it wasn't until shortly before he left in 2004. The issue of how large our troop "footprint" is in
History According to Bill Clinton
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 8:37AM
I just heard Bill Clinton on NPR's Morning Edition, waxing reminiscent about his administration's spectacularly failed health care plan. When he claimed that it bombed because of high deficits, the commentator (a quick one) quickly countered by referencing the political opposition. Roughly quoting: "Oh, well that was just because the health insurance companies didn't want it. But there's enough support today for it." Perhaps they didn't want socialist health care.
I'll check back later this morning with a more accurate transcript.
Maryland and Business
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 8:33AM
The Maryland General Assembly extended open arms to business growth yesterday, overriding Gov. Ehrlich's veto of their anti-Wal-Mart health care bill:
"We don't want to kill this giant. We want this giant to behave itself," said Del. Anne Healey (D-Prince George's County), the lead sponsor in the House. "We want this giant not to be a bully."
That bully employs 17,000 citizens in your state. Maryland makes me proud to be a citizen of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Alito Strategy
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 7:43AM
Look for some clarity on the nomination of Judge Samuel Alito by mid-afternoon. By then, the Senate Republican leadership will have completed a strategy conference call, Sen. Bill Frist will have taken the lay of the land on the Judiciary Committee, and Sen. Harry Reid will have decided just how badly he wants to destroy the United States Senate.
Sources tell us that Sen. Harry Reid is being heavily pressured by Sens. Ted Kennedy and Patrick Leahy to do everything in his power to help them delay the final vote on Judge Alito to the Supreme Court into early February. Reid and Frist discussed such an option yesterday, or should we say that Reid mentioned the idea and Frist told him to go pound sand.
Senior Republican Senate aides expect that Reid will once again approach the GOP leadership with the same proposal today. We are told that Senator Frist before Christmas asked his senior staff to prepare for use of the "Constitutional Option" in the Alito vote. They are ready to go, have a war room prepared and we wouldn't be surprised if they have a big red button for Frist to push at the moment that he wants to launch his first salvo in the fight to put Alito on the bench.
Shadegg Shifting
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 7:37AM
If this is the way Rep. John Shadegg makes a decision, perhaps he isn't the right man for the House GOP leadership slot.
Mid-afternoon yesterday, Shadegg supporters were emailing associates around town that their man had decided not to seek the Republican leader position. A few hours later, upon further consultation with advisers and members of the Republican caucus, he indicated that should Reps. Roy Blunt or John Boehner not move closer to wrapping up a win, he will enter the race.
At this point, his "I'm out, but I'm in" approach to political gamesmanship is making him look indecisive and rather small.
Crossing the Line?
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 6:41AM
Jed, last night John Batchelor pressed an analyst from Stratfor.com on Iran's actual intentions. The analyst said that as long as Iran "didn't cross the line," there would be something Iran could settle for as a nuclear power in the Middle East, something, he implied, that could be acceptable to the United States, too.
How can this be? President Bush memorably said, at West Point, that you can't wait for Chicago to be in smoke before reacting to a threat, and surely that's right -- especially in the case of a mad theocracy with nuclear weapons.
I don't see Iran being happy to "settle" for anything. And I don't see any way out than some kind of military action, probably within the year.
How do you see it? Generals always consider logistics first, and the logistics are awful.
Cantor Survived Abramoff, Reed, Norquist
Posted by on 1.13.06 @ 2:36AM
Spoke to Eric Cantor of 7th Virginia tonight with regard to the revolting facts about a 2000 anti-Semitic smear campaign run against him during the Republican primary in his district. The facts from the investigation by both the Washington Post and Hotline point to Jack Abramoff and Ralph Reed and Grover Norquist as the major figures behind the scenes manipulating a shadow 527 named the Faith and Family Alliance of Virginia Beach, Virginia. Faith and Family Values used up to $100,000 to distribute pamphlets and make robo-calls to constituents to say that Eric Cantor did not represent "Virginia values" and that his opponent was the "only Christian in the contest."
Cantor won by a few hundred votes in June 2000.
Cantor knew nothing of the generation of Faith and Family Values at the time. He especially did not know that Jack Abramoff used Faith and Family Values to launder internet gambling money (eLottery) to finance a cynical and successful lobbying effort to defeat a Congressional ban on internet gambling, and that the laundering process not only involved Reed and associates but also another major Republican op, Grover Norquist. The Black Hundreds character at Faith and Family Values who actually handled the checks in and out of the shell, Robin Vanderwall, is now serving a seven-year sentence for internet sex crime.
Cantor finally learned of the Abramoff-Reed-Norquist connection to Faith and Family Alliance from the Susan Schmidt and James V. Grimaldi reporting in late 2005 in the Washington Post. Cantor told me that back in 2000 there was no requirement for transparency for a 527's donors.
The darkest turn in this tale is that in 2003 the back-stabbing Abramoff sponsored a fund-raiser at Abramoff's deli in Washington, praising Cantor to his face as a prominent liaison between Congress and the Orthodox Jewish and Christian evangelical communities.
Cantor also told me that he believes the DOJ is now deeply involved in investigating Faith and Family Alliance for its money manipulations. This means that the Abramoff scandal, with Abramoff obliged to cooperate with DOJ in exchange for a ten-year sentence, is looking not just at ten to twenty members of Congress, but is also pointed at Ralph Reed and Grover Norquist. No mention of Rove, not yet.
Cantor's unnecessarily humble response when prompted how he felt about the smear at the time, how he feels now to learn that Abramoff , Reed, Norquist were responsible in a labyrinthine fashion for maintaining (and probably funding) the Faith and Family Alliance, was to say, "Politics is a very interesting business."
I also asked him if the former majority leader DeLay spoke to him about the smear after the facts were published. No comment from DeLay.
Cantor is now a potent candidate for the elected post of Majority Whip. He is also a survivor of the grotesque Abramoff and others now scurrying from the light.
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Re: The Real Radicals
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 6:40PM
What are the left-wing bombers called? "Professor."
(Think I'm joking? Read up on Northwestern's Bernadine Dohrn and UIC's Bill Ayers.)
Kremlin is Caesar
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 4:31PM
Russia returns. And this time it is an empire in control of the landmass from Normandy to the Japan Sea. The short summary of the collapse of the Ukraine Orange Revolution in a food throwing confusion the last days is that the Russian cabinet under the nimble, tsarist Putin has cowed the EU and reestablished Russian supremacy. Ukraine will now be handed back to Moscow in a red ribbon come the new elections. The most important man every morning in London, Brussels, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Athens, is not George Bush but Vladimir Putin. The few hours of natural gas choke off through the pipelines in Ukraine has left the EU in surrender. The battle of Europe is over. Kremlin is Caesar.
The planet now enjoys the paradoxical policies of not one but three superpowers. First is the United States with an uncontested blue water Navy for power projection and an as yet uncontested air fleet of satellites, bombers and drones that can target hombres in real time. Second is China with an expansionist economic policy that will become the planet's gross domestic product within moments. And third is Russia with its bottomless energy reserves and a concentration of Gazprom power in the hands of an ironbound gang of secret police trained nationalists and their kindred of Cain.
Of the trio, my choice for most potential to get what it wants short of EMP ending digital commerce is the new tsar, same as the old tsar.
All Hooah, no Dooah
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 4:05PM
A little while ago, I participated in a conference call with MGen. Steven Speaks, director of force development for the Army and MGen. Jeffrey Sorenson, the army's acquisition chief. The subject was body armor for the troops. They set some facts straight.
First, we're not scrimping on spending for the armor. The body armor now being issued to troops costs about $2100 per soldier. Adding the planned shoulder/upper body armor costs about another $300 and the side armor -- now being produced -- adds $1000 more. Right now, there is more than enough armor to give every soldier in
Second, there are a number of companies -- among them, according to Sorenson, one named Pinnacle -- that are making unsubstantiated claims about their products. Pinnacle, Sorenson said, is "all hooah and no dooah." The army has run preliminary tests on the Pinnacle armor plates and found that they are deficient in stopping power, ten pounds heavier than the current 31-pound armor set, and about 50% more expensive. Offers to buy Pinnacle armor sets have been answered by the company by statements that production versions of their "dragon skin" armor aren't available for testing.
Third, there are a lot of variables people on the Hill and in the media aren't thinking about. A 200-pound Marine can carry a lot more than a lady military policeman who weighs in at about 115. And he usually does: two weapons, water, rations, ammo and a lot of other mission-specific stuff. On the other hand, that Marine -- who may have to dive through doorways or windows, or point weapons up quickly -- may not want to be hampered by body armor that restricts movement. The obstacle to swinging an arm may create more risk than a lack of side armor plating.
Fourth, there is too much loose talk about what the body armor can and can’t do. The more people blather about the details, the more the enemy knows about how to defeat the armor.
In short, there's a lot being done to protect the troops. Not by Congress or the media. The effort is not stagnated, and is not penny-pinching, and -- most of all -- is not helped by Congressional grandstanding. (Note to Sen. Clinton: You might want to send your staffers back to their laptops to find something you might be right on. There’s gotta be something out there.)
Guns of August?
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 3:23PM
Guns of August, 1939? Iran's confrontation with the IAEA over the Natanz nuclear fuel facility has triggered a genuine crisis in the European Union -- a war-worrying, back-stabbing, bush-whacking, America-launch-on-warning crisis. Daniel Dombey, the Financial Times diplomatic correspondent at Brussels, told me last night that the definition of a crisis is when there is no acceptable solution. EU Foreign Secretary Javier Solana is talking like a Texas cowboy. Line in the sand. Britain's Straw, Germany's Steinmeyer, France's Douste-Blazy, meeting in heated, whispery emergency session in this news cycle, have declared talks with Iran at a "dead end." Russia also shows profound frustration and confusion with Iran's adamancy, and the opaque RU foreign secretary Lavrov has signaled support for the EU crowd's aim to refer Iran to the UN Security Council.
Guns of August, 1939? Iran's Regime is savvy, well-financed beyond imagination, hostile, paranoid, and motivated with an apocalyptic vision of paradise. Ahmadinejad's declarations that he wants Israel wiped off the map, that the Holocaust is a lie, that the United States is the great Satan, are sincere expressions of his and his cabinet's hallucinatory thinking. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council has just lost its aggressive chief and ruthless intelligence chief in a plane crash, and their replacements will redouble the IRGC capability for mischief and aggression.
Guns of August, 1939? The United States policy is to join with the EU and the Security Council to threaten Iran with trade sanctions and other non-military punishment. The PRC is the one mystery card, but China has never used its veto on the Security Council without the support of one other permanent member. France and Russia, very good customers of Iran's oil money, are not presently available to give China cover.
Guns of August, 1939? History does not offer a model where political or economic sanctions work to back down a revolutionary military power intent on dominating its region. Not the Bonapartists. Not the Confederacy. Not the Prussians. Not the Nazis. Not the Japanese militarists. Not the Soviets. Not the Maoists. Not the Baathists. Not the jihadists. No model works short of gunplay.
Guns of August, 1939? Many sources confirm that Natanz contains a secret underground facility with a cascade of centrifuges capable of manufacturing 90% enriched fissile material. Many sources confirm that Iran has the capability of a multistage ballistic missile. Many sources confirm that Iran has the plans and intention to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for a ballistic missile.
Guns of August, 1939? The numbers tell the tale succinctly: light sweet crude neared $65 per barrel in New York, entirely on the Iran nuke news. And in the event of any retaliation by Iran to an economic sanction or the eventual logical scenario of a blockade, a barrel of light sweet crude has no calculable price at this time.
Guns of August, 1939? It is September 1938. Appeasement? Concessions? Contest? Europe failed the test, and the German tanks, after one one swift, mass murdering year, massed at the Polish and Belgian borders the last weeks of August, 1939, and then the apocalypse.
Shadegg Shagging It
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 2:33PM
Word is out that Rep. John Shadegg has decided not to seek the Majority Leader's position.
It will be interesting to see whom he endorses, or whether he uses his higher visibility to create a critical block of votes to barter with.
The Real Radicals
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 2:17PM
It is ironic to hear the Concerned Alumni of Princeton today in the Kultursmog described as "radical." The organizations of the late 1960s and early 1970s that were described as radical were on the left and had the sympathies of liberals such as Senator Kennedy. What they did was more robust than anything the Concerned Alumni is accused of doing. They bombed buildings and robbed banks. In fact at Princeton they destroyed the ROTC Building, thus arousing the alarm of students such as Alito. Yet today his organization is being called radical in the media. And what are the left-wing bombers called, if they are remembered at all? Urban renewers?
Together At Last
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 2:17PM
Ted Koppel and the New York Times op-ed page are joining forces.
Democratic Wish List
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 12:40PM
Democrats in the House, speaking privately, say that they have a clear favorite in the House Majority Leader race: Roy Blunt.
"We can run against him nationally, no problem," says one Democratic member from a Blue Dog state. "Boehner presents a bit more of a challenge, but not much more."
Regardless of who is elected on the Republican side, though, the tempest across the aisle seems to have emboldened Democrats to look at their own leadership. The Democrats say that regardless of where Republicans go with their leadership, and regardless of how their party fares in the mid-term elections, there is a sense inside their caucus that they will change leaders, too.
"Nancy Pelosi is a goner," says another Democrat. "I look forward to the day when I can call Steny Hoyer my majority leader. Or minority leader."
There have been rumblings for months about this, but those noises are growing louder. Pelosi has increasingly been under scrutiny for her lack of leadership, inability to communicate with both her caucus and the public, and her less than stellar handling of policy issues. Hoyer has been quiet, sitting back and letting it all play out, but has been careful not to get tainted by Pelosi's bungling.
Lindsay Graham and Mrs. Alito
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 12:39PM
Human Events reports that the AP got the story of Mrs. Alito crying wrong, that she began crying at Sen. Lindsay Graham's apology for the Democrats' behavior, not at his "are you a closet bigot" question. No matter. In his defense or not, Graham's question was ridiculous and offensive.
Shagging Shadegg
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 12:33PM
The boys over at RedState are now officially pushing the candidacy of Rep. John Shadegg for Republican Majority Leader in the House.
Shadegg has been speaking a bit more in the past couple of days, talking about his consultation with his fellow members. But we're hearing that Shadegg intends to make a formal annoucement within the next 24 hours.
Supporters of both current candidates for the job -- Reps. John Boehner and Roy Blunt -- have been speaking with Shadegg since Monday in an attempt to head him off from entering the race. It isn't clear that either man would lose a huge number of commitments to Shadegg, but probably enough to make their own election a bit more questionable.
EU-3 Call Emergency IAEA Meeting
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 12:29PM
Germany, France and England have called for an emergency meeting of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency to consider Iran's reopening of its Natanz nuclear facility. This is the prelude to bringing Iran before the Security Council for sanctions. This is good news and bad. The EUnuchs say they realize that their diplomacy with Iran has failed. But their remedy is to try more diplomacy in another forum. This will tie up the effort to defeat Iran's nuclear weapons plans in the UN for months or years. In that time, Iran will almost certainly achieve their ambition to have, and be able to manufacture, nuclear weapons.
A Breathless House Race Tally
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 12:23PM
For those following the leadership race in the House, The Hill has set up a daily tally page. From what I'm hearing, though, the moment-by-moment coverage of this may be a waste of breath -- until members actually return to town, phone commitments probably don't mean as much as personal commitments. And as we've already seen with the Shadegg entry, the winds can quickly change with a news story in one direction or another.
Schumer Should Talk
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 11:41AM
A TAS exclusive: Ol' Chuck Schumer is accusing Samuel Alito Jr. of being a bigot? Look at Jay Homnick's piece and find out the truth here.
With a Whimper, Not a Bang
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 9:26AM
T.S. Eliot was wrong when he wrote, “This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.” The whimper precedes the bang, as it now does regarding
This pallid response of timorous men would be laughable were the threat not so serious, or the time to deal with it not so short. Before the Security Council can take up any resolution on Iran, there will be many debates about what it should accuse Iran of, what sanctions can best be imposed without inconveniencing any “innocent” nations that may be its trading partners (i.e., Russia and China) and just what will the Arab nations do if ever a vote is taken? When the Security Council takes up any resolution on
We have as little as six months to deal with
But
Milbank Nails It Again
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 9:08AM
Confirming the addage that even a stopped clock is right twice a day, Dana Milbank captured yesterday's confirmation hearing circus:
Thus did Democrats take their last stand against Alito. It had become clear that the committee, with unified GOP support, would clear the judge. Surveying the various lines of attack against Alito -- his opposition to abortion, his support for a powerful president, his conflict-of-interest issues -- Democrats concluded that their best hope was in Alito's membership in a group opposed to gains by women and minorities. Clarence Thomas had Anita Hill. Alito would have the Concerned Alumni of Princeton.
Trouble in Montana?
Posted by on 1.12.06 @ 1:40AM
If Rasmussen is to be believed, it looks like the Abramoff scandal is taking its toll on Conrad Burns. Burns hasn't quite fallen behind either of his likely challengers, and the backlash may have long since peaked and receded by November. But this isn't good news.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Flake, Shadegg, Arizona Rising
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 11:01PM
Spoke tonight with fresh, convincing Jeff Flake of 6th Arizona with regard the succession crisis in the Republican House of Representatives, and he called on all self-announcing candidates for leader and whip to give up their current posts and compete as unprivileged back-bench members. This especially applies to Roy Blunt of Missouri, who is campaigning for leader from his whip post, which Flake explained meant that Blunt, should he lose, would be required to advance the agenda of a man or woman he opposed just moments before. Flake also believes it would strengthen Speaker Hastert if he submitted himself to re-election on February 2, though this would also mean that the Democrats get involved in the election process separate from the Republican leader and whip races.
Flake responded most readily to mention of John Shadegg of 3rd Arizona running for leader. "I've talked to him a number of times," Flake told me, "and I'm encouraging him to get in."
Flake was adamant that the Republican House needs not just a change of leaders but a change of principles. Fiscal discipline. End to earmarks. End to lobbyists using free travel to grab lapels. End to DeLayism.
Later I spoke to Chuck Todd, editor in chief of the Hotline, with regard to his tough column today on Speaker Hastert. Todd calls on Hastert to step up and speak up about the abuses under Tom DeLay. Todd also believes that Hastert has the power to call for Blunt to give up his whip post while he stands for election, and that Hastert will do this presently. Nevertheless Todd has doubts about Hastert's intentions, The Speaker is a creation of the Gingrich-Armey-DeLay teamwork of the late 1990s. When and how does Hastert separate himself from the egregious DeLayism that puts the House majority at risk?
With regard to the election of February 2, Flake urged all members to stay uncommitted until the candidates, toe-to-toe with each other, stripped of their mantles, present their policies to change the culture of the Republican House. He also wants the President's State of the Union to acknowledge that the party is in turmoil. Good advice, though hard to imagine the White House writing such a line while the communications team is still searching for any and all photos of the President with the most infamous VIP of the new century, Smilin' Jack Abramoff.
Blunt Fundraiser Cancelled
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 6:10PM
If you've been tracking the going's on today in the House Republical Leader race, you'll know that the big story was Rep. John Boehner's touted plan to change the way legislative earmarks are dealt with in legislation: namely, he'd make earmarks as we know them today a thing of the past.
Getting earmarks inserted into legislation is big business in Washington and there is no better outfit at getting their clients earmarks than the mega-lobbying and advocacy firm of Cassidy and Associates. So no big surprise that Cassidy was hosting a mega fundraiser for Rep. Roy Blunt's leadership PAC, Rely On Your Beliefs (ROYB).
Problem is, the fundraiser -- $5000 per head -- was to be held on January 26, a week before the election for House Leader.
Late today came word that Blunt had canceled the fundraiser.
I Nominate Sam Alito for Sainthood
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 5:03PM
Or at least a medal for having Lindsay Graham patronizingly ask him, "Are you a closet bigot?" I don't care if Graham's trying to help him. No one should have to sit and answer these questions with a straight face and such comity.
Delay's Texas 22nd Goes Blue: Worse Ahead
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 4:15PM
"Put not your trust in princes." -- Psalm 146
The Republican Party needs CENTCOM to mass 3rd Infantry Division at the District border and invade Washington to liberate the tyrannized American citizenry from the U.S. Congress. How bad is the Abramoff scandal? We may soon need a Coalition Provisional Authority to prepare for a transition from DeLayism to democracy.
The DOJ leak this morning that five members of Congress, Burns, Dorgan, Reid, Hayworth, Ney, are targeted by Team Abramoff at the Office of Public Integrity means that the road ahead is an insurgency fog. Expect obtuse Reid to fight like Uday Hussein in a palazzo, guns blazing, and to threaten to take Ensign of Nevada down with him in a hail for smoke grenades. Expect steroid-voiced Hayworth of Arizona to crusade to invade Mexico City and perhaps Havana in order to divert fury. Expect Burns to depart with incoherence and Dorgan to wrap himself in victimization. Ney is a road bump to the charging Coalition tanks.
Last evening I spoke to Gurwitz of the San Antonio Express-News with regard the DeLay troubles in Texas. Gurwitz dismissed the Earle launched Travis County indictment for campaign finance chicanery as junk; however he believes the Abramoff scandal has much weight in Texas eyes, and that DeLay is in deep trouble holding onto Texas 22nd District this November. Redistricted former congressman Democrat Nick Lampson is now in the race against DeLay, and Gurwitz says there is a wildfire building to turn the 22nd blue.
This early DeLay disintegration is the beginning of serious damage to the GOP's numbers in the House. Will the Abramoff scandal disgust all voters and make the mid terms a low turnout nightmare, or will both sides take enough hits to confuse the casualty rate?
The threat model is 1874, with the supremely opaque Grant in the President's mansion, and the all powerful Republican Party -- rotten with graft, gold manipulation, railroad scandals, party boss knuckleheadedness -- humiliated at the mid-term by a shrunken but monolithic Democrat vote in the restored South and the disgusted New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania districts. The Republican mascot of the (hysterically spooked charging) elephant dates from that fiasco.
My choice today is that we use armor to liberate the District and pull down the Senate and House office buildings, then raise a modest hand-painted banner, Mission Accomplished. We few, we happy few, will fight on from the hills. Long winter, check the water supply and matches. Liberty!
Re: Scandal Survival
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 3:46PM
Wlady: Now you have me confused. Is it that DeLay is dirty for associating with Abramoff or is Abramoff dirty for associating with DeLay? And where in the New York Times shall I go for guidance on this?
Scandal Survival
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 3:39PM
This has bothered me since yesterday. A Washington Post page 1 story was headlined: "Lobby Firm Is Scandal Casualty: Abramoff, DeLay Publicity Blamed for Shutdown." A seemingly related New York Times front page story ran under this head: "Lobbyist's Firm Escapes From a Scandal."
So which is it? Is past affiliation with Jack Abramoff and/or Tom DeLay a kiss of death or isn't it? In the first case, the firm in question, Alexander Strategy Group, is a small business that last employed about a dozen lobbyists in Washington, some very close to Abramoff-DeLay. In the second case, the firm in question, Greenberg Traurig, is a major law firm employing some 1,500 lawyers in more than 25 offices in several major cities. Abramoff earned a mere $1 million a year from it before he was fired in 2004. Clearly, in pure business terms, there is safety in size and numbers. But interesting how the New York Times seems to prefer bigger game.
Iran's Adamancy on Nukes
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 3:17PM
From the Iranian News Service comes the latest sermonizing from the terrorists as to their "rights" to have nuclear power (i.e., nuclear weapons):
Former president Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said here Wednesday the Iranian nation will get with wisdom its rights with respect to its nuclear program.
"The arrogance and its allies will be regretful if they obstruct the Iranian nation's access to the latest science, said Rafsanjani in his second sermon to a large group of worshipers at the auspicious Eid-ul-Adha (Feast of Sacrifice) congregational prayers at the Tehran University Campus.
"We cannot give up our rights," he added.
The Expediency Council Chairman dismissed the wide-scale hue and cry launched by the western political, military and economic circles against
Calling as "heavy and unprecedented" the anti-Iran propaganda, Rafsanjani said, "In the age of democracy, the natural right of a country, which wants to make use of the latest sciences, is subjected to assaults." He said the motive behind assaults on
"The root cause of these assaults lies in the colonialist nature and policies of the West, whose plan is to keep countries backward." Rafsanjani said the main motive behind their attacks is to punish a country which has stood on its own and has been able to gain access to the latest science and technology and broken the talisman of ignorance.
"Under the worst conditions when our country was chemically bombarded by the enemy, we refused to go beyond humanitarian limits and avoided using inhumane weapons." Rafsanjani further said, "To settle the nuclear issue both parties are required to show wisdom and if they take an unwise move, they have done injustice to the region and the world and they cannot resolve the problem through sanctions and so on."
The Iranians advise patience and diplomacy. That's their recommendation to leave them alone long enough to achieve their ambitions of nuclear weapons. So what's our alternative?
Kennedy's Ploy
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 2:46PM
According to Senate Judiciary sources, Sen. Ted Kennedy this morning was informed that a number of media outlets -- including the New York Times, as well as both Democratic and Republican staff from the committee -- had reviewed a wealth of documents related to Concerned Alumni of Princeton and that there was no evidence that Supreme Court nominee Judge Samuel Alito played a major role personally or financially in the organization at any time. This information was passed to Kennedy after he raised the issue of possibly requesting a subpoena for all of CAPs documents before he entered the hearing room for the third day of confirmation hearings. "We told him we'd gone through it, and that seemed to be the end of it," says a committee staffer. So big surprise that despite knowing what he needs to know, Kennedy decided to simply create a few moments of entertaining political theater for the nightly news.
Nothing Like a Hearing's Transparency
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 2:23PM
Those bothering to watch the confirmation hearings for Judge Samuel Alito are being treated to the Senate's inner workings and finer intellects. Sen. Ted Kennedy's temper tantrum against Sen. Arlen Specter should be the talk of evening news shows (the Washington Post website is already featuring it). But you know it's bad when even the New York Times' correspondent, Elisabeth Bumiller, is moved to mock the Senators for their vanity and verbosity. Postie Dana Milbank, typically no friend of Bush or his allies in his critical portraits of Washington goings-on, noted the Senators' tendency to soliloquies. And then there was Russ Feingold, apparently fresh from reading the Village Voice, questioning Judge Alito's integrity and honesty without a shred of evidence.
If the Senate is the dignified side of Congress, I'll take the House.
Making the Alito Hearings Interesting
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 12:50PM
Finally, the solution: Daniel Drezner is holding a competition for the dumbest thing that a Senate Judiciary Committee member utters during the hearings. Have at it. (h/t Instapundit)
Re: ABC's NSA
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 11:22AM
Mark: You hit the nail on the head. And there's more. The ABC, NYT and the rest of the leakers' amen chorus is entirely wrong in labeling them "whistleblowers." The federal Whistleblower Protection Act does not - repeat not - give leakers immunity from prosecution for the crime of leaking secrets. It protects real whistleblowers who report possible wrongdoing through set channels. In the case of secret information, those channels prevent disclosure of such as the NSA intel gathering program and the CIA detention of terrorist prisoners in secret locations overseas.
ABC's NSA
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 9:25AM
ABC's Brian Ross had yet another breathless (and misleading) exclusive last night. Fired NSA analyst Russle Tice (apparently stripped of his security clearance and let go last year over "psychological concerns") is claiming to be "a" source for the NY Times' NSA story.
Note to the FBI investigators probing the leak: This guy ain't it. He may have chimed in after the NY Times got the story, but he certainly is not the original leaker. The timing of the story (right before the Patriot Act vote) points to a time-honored pressure tactic by political sources: when your original leak didn't make it into the paper, to have the originally intended impact (in this case right before the 2004 presidential election to harm President Bush), wait for an opportunity to make political hay. A year goes by and Risen's source sees the Patriot Act vote as another big opportunity. I'd bet the source threatened the Times that if they didn't publish that Friday, the story would be given to a competitor.
Mr. Tice certainly isn't that crafty. Nor is he an expert on the statutes governing surveillance of foreign threats operating domestically or of Constitutional law for that matter. He obviously missed the class on Article II in his high school government class.
Mr. Tice is yet another disgruntled guy who got canned and wants his pound of flesh no matter the cost to our safety and liberty.
ABC should have pointed out in its piece that every President since Jimmy Carter (due to the passage of FISA in 1978) has specifically reserved to himself a Constitutional authority to conduct warrantless surveillance to protect America from foreign threats -- including those threats that operate here in the good ol' US of A. That authority has been upheld in the courts, most recently by the FISA Court of Review's 3-0 smackdown of the FISA Court which stated that they "take for granted" the president's authority to conduct such surveillance.
Nice try ABC, but you get a failing grade...again.
Alito Update
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 9:13AM
Building on what we reported yesterday, Republicans were thrilled with the first day of questioning by Judiciary Committee members of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito.
"He held up very well late into the day, which is something we were concerned about," says a committee staffer.
The same cannot be said for the Democratic members of the committee. According to several Democratic staffers, they were taken aback by the tone and line of questioning Sen. Russ Feingold took with Alito. "That wasn't part of the game plan," one staffer told us last night. "During the lunchbreak his staff said that he was extremely unhappy about the morning session, very frustrated and angry that Kennedy and Biden weren't pushing harder."
The result: one of the more embarrassing performances in recent memory. Feingold essentially called a Supreme Court nominee a dupe for the White House, and grilled Alito on his preparation sessions with White House staff.
"We didn't know he was going to do it, and if we had, we'd have advised him not to go that route," says another Democratic staffer on the committee of Feingold. "We knew that this was going to be a challenging hearing, because the private meetings with Alito across the board had gone well with our members. He's a serious guy, and our members came away impressed, so we knew that he'd be formidable. We just didn't expect our guys to perform so poorly."
Things can change, but there is a clear sense among Democrats that there is almost no way they could possible mount a filibuster against Alito at this point. "It just hasn't gone the way we would have hoped. They [the White House and Republican committee staff] have just done a good job, and the nominee has been very strong. That's it."
More on Shadegg
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 9:02AM
As we reported yesterday afternoon, the predicted end of the House Majority Leader election that other blog sites were reporting never came, and now it appears Republicans in the House have settled in for the long haul. No more than about a third of the GOP caucus, if that, has truly committed to either Reps. Roy Blunt and John Boehner. Why?
"Almost certainly it's because we're waiting for the other shoes to drop on both of them," a Republican House member explained. "If a member is in Washington, they are already hearing that reporters are circling around the 'Boehner is a party animal' stories from a few years ago. You're hearing there are major pieces on Blunt's relationships with lobbyists being developed. Beyond the most loyal supporter none of us is willing to go out on a limb that might get sawed off pretty quickly. If you're out of town you're hearing if from your colleagues on conference calls we're holding."
Yesterday, during a lunchtime conference call among conservative Republican House members, there was an acknowledgement that neither current candidate was strong enough on reform, or perceived to be "clean" enough for them to support. Rep. John Shadegg's (AZ) name came up continually.
Shadegg is remaining fairly quiet, but it is clear that he and his operatives continue to indicate to supporters in the Republican Study Committee and elsewhere that his entry into the race can only be achieved if there is groundswell of support generated to allow him to enter the race with strong momentum. That would require a commitment of between 30 to 50 members, to ensure that he enters the race with at least as many commitments as the other two candidates, if not more.
All that said, Shadegg appears to be looking very carefully at entering the race and a decision may come sooner rather than later in the process. Keep an eye on this over the next couple of days.
Phew
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 8:30AM
Imagine my relief when I read in this morning's NY Times Corrections column:
An article yesterday about the awards ceremony for the sex-films industry included erroneous information from AVN Publications, the program organizer, on the name of one award-winning film by Vivid Entertainment. It is "The New Devil in Miss Jones," not "The Devil in Miss Jones."
The Times should be more cognizant of the stress and argumentation such careless errors can cause among people of good will.
Re: Illusions of Safety
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 7:02AM
I understand why people are surprised, but not why they're so surprised. Sure, Cleveland Park feels safe, but you can take a Metro from there to some of the most dangerous 'hoods in the country. The illusion of safety is premised on assuming criminals will be lazy. Usually they are -- but not always. And when law-abiding citizens are forcefully disarmed, they become easy targets.
Think this'll make DC rethink its handgun ban? Of course not.
Loud Whisper Shadegg
Posted by on 1.11.06 @ 2:19AM
Co-host Larry Kudlow tonight was irrepressible in his loud whisper campaign for John Shadegg of 3rd Arizona as a fresh challenger to the apparent stand-off between Majority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri and John Boehner of 8th Ohio in their bruising contest for House Republican majority leader. Shadegg is the fifth ranking Republican in the House now, chair of the House Republican Committee, and enjoys an iron-bound reputation for his chair of the stalwart Republican Study Committee in the first Bush term.
We spoke to Thaddeus McCotter of 11th Michigan, who promoted John Boehner as the man to change the unsavory ways of the pork barrel Republicans. McCotter is not RSC, and did not speak for or against RSC chair Mike Pence of 6th Indiana or other tyros. McCotter spoke in favor of a transformation in the way the House conducts business. Discipline, honor, transparency, humility. Blunt is business as usual -- Delayism without the cash binges. Boehner represents the unglamorous labor of government; McCotter added that Boehner had offered no plum for McCotter's vote, and no favor was asked.
My measure of this fevered, secretive politicking in the House conference is that the leader race as well as whip race is still open; and that the early names could fall out if none gain a majority in head counts. Reminds me of the rumor-tossed Republican national conventions once upon a time, 1856 to Willkie in 1940, before the primaries began to dominate the process after Ike in 1952. Wait on the Republican Study Committee to show its music; and Shadegg is the RSC bass player alongside lead guitar Pence.
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
Illusions of Safety
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 11:16PM
A revealing aspect of the grisly mugging murder of New York Times veteran David Rosenbaum in Washington last weekend are reactions of residents in the pleasant neighborhood in which the crime occurred. The Washington Post's coverage has included fewer expressions of outrage at the cruel fate that met the accomplished Rosenbaum than words of new found fear for one's own safety:
"We already take more precautions after dark. This is just terrible news." "It's a remarkably safe neighborhood, or it feels that way...until now." "We have very small children. We'll have our guard up even more, use our alarms more religiously." Before this crime, "There was no fear of things."
"When there's a terrible murder," the writer Paula Fox said in a New York Times Magazine profile five years ago, "people who are interviewed say, 'This has always been a quiet neighborhood.' That is so dumb and uninformed! The earth is not a quiet neighborhood. There isn't anyplace that's a quiet neighborhood...."
Boys' Night Out
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 10:49PM
The Vice President's undisclosed location has been discovered! Wait for it... the new Clyde's in Chinatown. It was noticed that St. Michael's neighbor, and longtime friend, the Secretary of Defense, also dined at the new restaurant this evening. We just don't know if they ate together. Anyway, so soon after his recent hospital visit, what was VPOTUS doing in a joint featuring fatty oysters and wings?
What the Heck, Over?
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 6:13PM
So now we know who is the Republican equivalent of Joe Biden: Lindsay Graham, aside from preening for the cameras, has done more to corner Alito today than all of the Dems put together. His entire line of questioning on enemy combatants should have elicited from Alito the "can't answer because it may come before the court" response. Unfortunately, the judge may be a bit tired after a long day and got into issues of the Hamdi case more than he should. Graham is supposed to be a Republican, but he is acting like someone who wants to corner Alito and sink him. Can't anyone shut Graham up?
Catching Up
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 4:30PM
Sorry, we've been busy with Alito hearing stuff. A few things for the late afternoon roundup:
1. The White House is extremely happy with the proceedings in the Senate confirmation hearing of Judge Samuel Alito.
2. Democrats are not. They are so frustrated by their members' poor performance and inability to get traction that they have indicated a willingness to Chairman Specter to cancel a third day of questioning by members (the 20-minute followup question round) and go right to the panels.
3. Look for the conservatives in the House to put formally press Rep. John Shadegg into the House Leader race. There is growing concern about both both Reps. Roy Blunt and John Boehner, and conservatives are looking for a third option.
4. Rep. Jerry Lewis is not that option.
More on all of this going into tonight and tomorrow morning.
Now Reverse Discrimination Lawsuits
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 3:41PM
That's the word out of the U.K., where Princess Camilla's bodyguard has been awarded a large settlement after suing for "over-promotion."
Big Chief Crook Abramowich
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 12:52PM
Expert source Fergus Bordewich identifies the 1988 Indian Gaming Regulatory Act as the primary virus that has infected all of Congress and transformed business as usual graft into a national threat. It is moments before we become the United States of America versus the United Casinos of America, and guess who, with 228 tribes and 405 gambling operations in 30 states, has bought dozens of members of both Federal houses and hundreds of members of state legislatures to protect its interests and silence the opposition? Confessed big chief crook Abramowich was working for Congress-created Big Chief Crook. The sham of Indian gaming rights is the same sham as one for the road rights. There is no rationality in granting the abused native American descendants a license to endorse lawlessness and suicidal vice; and there is no excuse for pretending not to notice that organized crime and ravenous state legislatures now exploit the casinos as robber kingdoms preying on the elderly and stupid. Abramowich exploited the exploiters; he was not much more than a disease carrier like Typhoid Mary. The virus that Congress created is the virus that Congress now watches lay waste to national virtue and its own honor.
Offer a bald example that you must stomach if you believe you are immune to the virus. The compulsive gambling magnet Foxwood's in Connecticut is now one of the largest casinos on earth. It hangs upon the mindlessly lawyerly 1983 claim that two elderly Mashantucket Pequot Indian women lived on a strip of Connecticut land in the 1930s, and so therefore their descendants enjoy the sovereignty of Monaco or Singapore. If this makes you laugh, you are not the solution, you might be infected. If this makes you grimace that Congress has declared two plus two equals Abramowich and don't-forget-my-share-of-the-take, then you are ready to fight the pandemic of the 1988 Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. Now.
Most Fevered Brow of the Week
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 11:58AM
I know. I know. It's only Tuesday, and most fevered brows are scowling at Judge Alito. But none compare with Bob Fitrakis of the Columbus Free Press, who offers the following:
"What are e-voting machines and central tabulators that pass the voting results over electronic networks from the internet to phone lines? No more than data easily spied on and tapped into... "Bush and his cabal are notorious for collecting raw intelligence data and using it for their political gain. While many progressives accept the fact that our government manufactured an illegal war in "The Bush administration’s utter contempt for the U.S. Constitution and the specific information we now know about its use of the National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance network should further call into question Bush’ 2004 presidential “election.” In a recent revelation, we have learned that the NSA shared the fruits of its illegal spying on behalf of Bush with other government agencies.
From the Columbus Free Press to the New York Times. You can look for it there. But you saw it -- and laughed at it -- here first. Yes, it's possible the week will give us a more fevered brow. But whomever it is will have to rise to new heights to beat Fitrakis. So where is Babs Streisand this week?
Finally, a Question
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 10:46AM
Pat Leahy drones about his own biography... "with that in mind," and asks about the Concerned Alumni of Princeton. This is the biggest ammo these guys have. So Sam Alito opposes Ivy League liberals. Next question?
Watch Mrs. Alito
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 10:35AM
She's facially expressing what her husband can't as Leaky Leahy waxes poetic about his frequent diatribes against tyranny on the Senate floor
No Super-Duper?
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 10:03AM
Specter called Casey v. Planned Parenthood a "super precedent" and "super stare decisis." What, not "super-duper precedent," as he termed it in the Roberts hearings?
Alito: "I personally wouldn't get into categorizing precedents, or super precedents, or super-duper precedents."
Browbeating the Nominee
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:58AM
Arlen Specter is coaxing Sam Alito into affirming the "living Constitution" (that is, the meaningless Constitution). So much for no ideological litmus test.
Bird Flu? What Bird Flu?
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:54AM
Tom Bethell has a little more ammo: a new study suggests that avian flu may not affect humans as severely as feared.
Immigration Reform? A Better Idea
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:52AM
The Central American clown show -- meeting in Mexico City -- reportedly demanded that the US allow more immigration and legalize the illegals already here. I have a better idea.
Those nations - especially Mexico - that, as government policy, export their troubles to us, should pay a high price for doing so. All of these countries are on the dole. We should deduct $100,000 from their foreign aid grant for every illegal from their nation captured here (with double the penalty for everyone caught more than once). I'm just throwing that figure out. It may be far too low.
The tinfoil-hat crowd that rules most of these nations might get the message if illegal immigration started costing them money, instead of us.
Blunt Talk
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:47AM
Interesting the the Blunt camp last night was spinning to folks that they almost had the election wrapped up for GOP Leader.
This election does not have the feel of one that will be short and sweet. We're hearing that both sides are whipping each other's "confirmed" endorsements pretty aggressively. That's not an indicator that anyone is confident that they are close to victory.
Shadegg Shaking Things Up?
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:45AM
Word this morning is that some conservative House colleagues of Rep. John Shadegg (AZ), who has insisted that he is not seeking the House Majority Leader position, are looking for an opening to press him into challenging Reps. Boehner and Blunt for the job. Shadegg is viewed by many off Capitol Hill - in the blogosphere and among party activists - as the "true conservative" option to Boehner and Blunt. This is interesting, if only because the "Two B's" running both have stellar conservative pedigrees and voting records. The fact that Shadegg's name continues to be floated would indicate that the zeal for "reform" that is being tossed about isn't being addressed as readily as perhaps the "Two B's" whip operations believe with their candidates, and that there is a well spring of support for a third candidate.
The Big Alito Yawn
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 9:41AM
It's official. While the Beltway/legal/political world is watching the confirmation hearings for Judge Alito as Supreme Court justice like most folks watch the Super Bowl, the rest of the country just doesn't care.
The Judean Authority
Posted by on 1.10.06 @ 12:56AM
Source in Jerusalem reports a breakaway clique of West Bank settlers calling themselves the Judean Authority is challenging the authority of the Israeli Government to evict them from their homes and turn over their homesteaded land to the terrorists called the Palestinian Authority. The settlement that houses these vigorous rebels is approximately 40 minutes from Jerusalem in the barren rolling hills of what is called Judea. The Israeli police have already identified the clique as hostile and led a raid on the settlement's guard dog training kennel last weekend in order to intimidate the hotheads. However in the way of the world when the state turns its brute force against its own patriots, the nascent Judean Authority grows stronger as the state becomes ridiculous in its fears of dissidents. The leadership crisis in Jerusalem, with no Sharon successor in sight, means there is rich ground for mischief on the basis of the settlements. The fiasco in the Gaza Strip last summer, handing over Jewish farmsteads to lawless schemers who have transformed the Gaza Strip into a rocket filled rogue state that has broken with the PA and sided with homicidal Hamas, means that the new Israeli leadership will have no facts to support a new step of evicting West Bank settlers such as the Judean Authority utopians. Also, Olmert and Forward are chained to unilateral withdrawal policies: Netanyahu and Likhud oppose all withdrawals; the PA is broken, powerless, one election from laughter.
An autonomous, Jewish-only, militant, impossibly unstable Judean Authority is a fantasy, a dream, a ploy, a trap. So was said of the Jewish State once upon a time.
Monday, January 9, 2006
Pushing Chafee
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 4:43PM
Just in on the fax: Family Research Council is launching a pro-Alito/pressure-Chafee ad campaign in Rhode Island (a best buy political move since Providence-New Bedford market blankets the state), heavily playing the Italian Catholic card. (Brief tangent: it's a wondrous sight to see a predominantly evangelical group, Catholic employees aside, going this route.) Read the text here. Though Rhode Island is heavily Democratic, at 63 percent it's also the most Catholic state in the country -- the one state this tactic may work.
Flaking Out
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 4:34PM
So Rep. Jeff Flake (AZ) gets the ball rolling to push Rep. Tom DeLay out the door, but he's unhappy with the chaos he created. Both Flake and his colleague, New Hampshire Rep. Charlie Bass, are now circulating a "Dear Colleague" letter chastising their fellow Republican caucus members for so aggressively endorsing and campaigning for open, or potentially open, positions.
To be sure, their broader message -- that publicizing support undercuts the caucus's ability to force real change and reform -- is the right one. But shouldn't this have been something they tried to impart before they blew the whole thing up on Friday?
Whipping Support
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 4:30PM
As we reported this morning, Rep. Mike Rogers (MI) this afternoon circulated a "Dear Colleague" letter announcing that he is challenging Rep. Eric Cantor for the Republican Whip position.
Does Boehner Get It?
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 4:05PM
Flipping through his campaign booklet, "A Majority That Matters," I have my doubts. He tosses about keywords such as trust and vision. He has a road map for compiling a vision.
More substantially, he correctly diagnoses the power of the budgetary process as part of the Abramoff problem. His solution is vague and not compelling:
We need to get our arms around the power that our budget represents. We need to distinguish, for example, between legitimate earmarks with a clear local need and those for which the merits are less well demonstrated.
Congressman, I'll help you get your arms around it: It's too much. The government's too big. Any significant reform of the House, the Republican Party, or the "process" must involve a firm commitment to smaller government.
So I searched the document for the word "spending." The results were not encouraging. It's mentioned seven times:
-Once in reviewing highlights of 10 years of a Republican House: "We've brought overdue accountability to the spending of federal taxpayer money."
-As one of his major goals for 2006: "Pass a Budget conference report that holds the line on spending by early April at the latest." Stirring stuff, huh?
-And the other five references come in this section chock full of somewhat technical appropriations language:
Taking Control of the Budget.
The single most direct challenge I think we all face is the budget. Whether you’re a budget hawk or a tax-cutter, you know that federal spending is on a path that directly imperils the future of our children and our nation. But we’ve learned all too well that both the current process and the
culture are stacked against fiscal discipline. Washington Here’s what I’d propose:
Fix the Congressional Budget Act. Essentially, we’re the victim of a process set up by Democrats in 1974 – who were so committed to increasing federal spending that they tried to impeach the sitting President for not spending enough. The CBA locks in annual increases so that even a slight reduction in the rate of a program’s growth is labeled a cut, even if the program is reformed to provide greater benefits for less money. The tax policy scoring process dramatically underestimates the real revenue generated by growth-building tax policies. And year-in and year-out, their numbers are consistently wrong, almost always underestimating the importance to the federal budget of a strong and growing economy.
We need to fix the CBA and the scoring models so that they respect growth and they don’t affirmatively discourage fiscal responsibility which is politically viable. Several of our colleagues have explored the idea at length and I think it’s important we give their ideas urgency and action.
Prioritize Budgetary Discipline. We simply have to make spending discipline as specific and vital a part of our individual and committee responsibilities as any other part of our agenda. Just as we seek individual ways to cut taxes, we need to look for, identify, and move on ways to spend less money while still respecting the vital commitments from the federal government that many Americans rely on. If you have an idea for cutting spending, I’ll want to hear about it, and I’ll make sure it gets heard and, if it’s viable, acted on.
Prioritizing earmarks? Fixing the CBA? That's the solution to runaway federal spending? Hardly. I could be wrong here. I could be misreading this. But the lack of resolve in Boehner's master plan promises more of the same ol' Republican House if he's elected majority leader.
News from Mordor: Trotsky Dead Again
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 3:36PM
News from Mordor: Rising star Kazemi, warlord of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council, died along with his intelligence chief in the crash of a small aircraft in bad weather near Tehran Airport.
Significance? Kazemi and his staff were intimates of the firebrand President Ahmadinejad, who is a veteran op for the IRGC. Think of the two as Stalin and Trotsky to the demi-Lenin in Ayatollah Khamenei. Now Trotsky is dead, by accident, by design -- no matter, the result will be a vacuum in power that Ahmadinejad will fill with Semtex.
At the same time, the IRGC is the epicenter and funding authority of asymmetrical warfare on the planet, sometimes call state-sponsored terrorism. Al Q and HizbAllah both had good relations with Kazemi and his now charred staff. The bad-bad boys will take it hard that their off-budget emergency requests now go to new taloned-hands.
Watch for more concentration of toadies in the days ahead, all power to the mouth of Mordor, Ahmadinejad, who shows talent to climb to the role of the 21st century's first great Sauron malevolence.
Indicted War Criminal Volleyball
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 3:10PM
Are you a war criminal concerned about your prospects for decent housing when awaiting trial? Have you been kept up at nights in a cold sweat, not thinking about the blood on your hands but whether your roommate will snore, your beds bunked, or internet access abridged?
Well, keep going to that gym and working out, because you're going to have to have the spirit to win! I don't mean win the trial (ha!), but win in indicted war criminal volleyball! Slate details how accomodating the UN is with its mixed nuts:
Inmates here certainly don't lack for entertainment options. Besides television, radio, and access to any print media they choose to subscribe to, the prisoners have access to English classes (which boast almost universal attendance), computer workshops, and a range of art instruction from ceramics and painting to more esoteric techniques like model-ship building. There are comfortable visiting facilities, including rooms reserved for conjugal visits. Weekly religious services are led by Muslim, Roman Catholic, and Serbian Orthodox priests, who are shipped in by tribunal authorities. And evenings are time for gym class, when a roomful of pudgy fiftysomethings rushes around playing volleyball or indoor soccer under the close supervision of a trained physical-education instructor.
Alito MEGO
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 3:04PM
Poor judge Alito. Can you imagine having to sit through a day of Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer without responding? I think he's learned the same skill I did in the second year of law school. If you sleep with your eyes open, you can endure almost anything.
Mark Larson - KOGO, San Diego
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 3:03PM
I'll be subbing for Mark again today on AM 600 KOGO, San Diego. Hope you can catch it. I'm going to take on Ralph Neas on Alito.
Cantor Endorsing?
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 2:20PM
We're hearing that Republican Whip candidate Rep. Eric Cantor is endorsing Rep. Roy Blunt for House Republican Leader.
Word is the Pence decision to step aside isn't so much about support or lack there of. Rather, it's a matter of the Congressman doing what's best for the caucus. Reading between the lines: there is more afoot here than meets the eye.
Vanguard and Alito
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 2:17PM
Sen. Russ Feingold's biggest gripe with Judge Alito's integrity is the old yarn about his investment in Vanguard mutual funds. This accusation is already warmed over from the months of scrutiny of Alito's record: judges are encouraged to invest in mutual funds precisely because doing so avoids conflict of interests. Alito (rightly) didn't recuse himself from a case involving Vanguard because he's their customer, not an investor. Their success or failure in a case has no bearing on the worth of his investment in their funds.
Abramoff Angina
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 2:13PM
Howard Dean spoke way too soon about the Democrats being lily white and pure on accepting money from the Jack Abramoff. We're hearing that that the Democratic campaign committees in both the House and the Senate are running full audits to find out just have much they have accepted.
Senator Harry Reid apparently reached out to Dean and told him to keep his mouth shut. Dean, according to DNC sources, believes the Abramoff story has traction, based on what the party is seeing out in the states. We shall see.
The upshot, though, is that Democrats can only attack Jack Abramoff for so long before a number of prominent Democratic activists/lobbyists/fundraisers come under close scrutiny.
Biden Bite
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 1:39PM
Just another reason to subscribe to The American Spectator, Joe Biden, our fave all around bad guy Democrat Senator, just said told soon-to-be Justice Alito that he should be "proud" to be a subscriber to The American Spectator and National Review.
I guess our political contributions to him are paying off. (Just kidding!)
Become part of the group that provides talking points to Democrat senators. Subscribe now!
The Republican Party is the News
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 1:15PM
House Republicans thrash in search of a new leadership team. Sam Alito stands before the fully armed Judiciary Committee firing squad, with a trembling Leader Bill Frist in the wings, fearing a direct hit and the offensive of a filibuster he cannot break. Meanwhile the natural successor to the lame duck President Bush, Dick Cheney, spends more hours in the hospital, suggesting a crisis even before the nasty battle for succession in the winter spring of 2008.
All told, Republicans appear to be in turmoil and doubt. And does this translate to Democrat triumph? Negative. The reason the Republican Party is so much in the news with its intricate adjustments to the needs of the country is because the Republican Party is the news. The Republican Party has become a surrogate nation state in wartime. The Republican Party's rude manners, strange choices, char-broiled tastes, deep bench talent, Henry V fate, is all the excitement the Republic can imagine. Jettisoning DeLay was good corporate governance. Sending an exceedingly well-built Alito machine into the lion's den is the same as sending a carrier battle group into harm's way; it is power-projection. And questioning the health of the VPOTUS, like that of the POTUS, is a moment to look ahead, to sort out the next brood of Republican leaders for the CINC job.
Where are the Democrats? In the same bottle-fed, undemanding, ceremonial position the Republicans endured during the long struggle against fascism in FDR's years: coat-holders, hostesses, ushers, protesters, whiners, commentators and my favorite, voices of conscience.
Blunt Talk
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 12:00PM
Just as we are mulling Blunt's standing, Rep. Jack Kingston (GA) endorses him. Kingston is a bellwether for conservatives.
Blunt
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:58AM
Folks on the House who are having a tough time seeing where the Pence announcement plays out elsewhere.
The assumption was that if Rep. Roy Blunt were leading John Boehner in "whip counts" for the Leader position, the House Republican Whip position, which Blunt currently holds, would be a wide open race for conservatives. With Pence stepping aside, the Whip job appears to be now Eric Cantor's, assuming Blunt ascends. "It's odd that Pence would take himself out this early in the game, but perhaps he's hearing a count that indicates Blunt is not doing well,. and the Whip job isn't going to be open."
That is not the case, according to two GOP operatives who cover the House, and who say that Blunt's whip operation is reporting strong responses, and a firm belief that Blunt is ahead of Boehner in the count.
Pence's committee, the Republican Study Group, would, on its face, be a natural spot for Blunt to find strong support. Where that group's members go will be a strong indicator of where Blunt ends up.
Re: Pence Out
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:42AM
It's disappointing news, but quite understandable that Pence wouldn't seek the post if he's lacking the support. He avoids a likely bruising loss, and builds his reputation and support for next time.
Pence Out
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:34AM
Rep. Mike Pence has decided not to seek a leadership post. A "Dear Colleague" letter is circulating now.
Boehner Making Inroads
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:33AM
Things are moving fast. No sooner does Republican Study Group Chair, Rep. Mike Pence, appear to weaken as a leadership candidate than Rep. John Boehner begins to chip away at the RSC.
This morning, Rep. Gresham Barrett (SC), a member of the group, and vice chair of the GOP class of 2004, endorsed Boehner for leader. This is significant only in that the RSC is viewed as a leading conservative base in the House.
The more moderate wing of the Republican caucus, most visibly represented by the "Tuesday Group" intends to hold interviews with both Boehner and Blunt and whomever else might choose to run for the slot at the end of the month.
Slandering Alito
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:20AM
Having lost his witness who was prepared to attack Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito for his activities at Princeton University 30 years ago, we've learned that Sen. Patrick Leahy is looking to add a new witness to replace him.
Last Friday Leahy lost Stephen R. Dujack after it was revealed that, among other things, he equated the eating of meal with meat to the Holocaust. Dujack was a Princeton alum, who was prepared to attack Alito for his membership in a Princeton alumni group.
Now, Leahy's staff is looking to add to its panelists another Princeton alum to attack Alito for his time at Princeton: Prof. Sally Frank, currently a teacher at Drake University, and a Princeton grad in 1980. Frank was a well-known campus political activist who protested -- among other things -- apartheid in South Africa and the failure of Princeton to provide locks on bathrooms. She is best known for her lawsuits to make Princeton's famous eating clubs co-ed.
A Democratic Judiciary Committee staffer says no decision has been made on adding Frank.
Alito's Rise
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 11:18AM
This is perhaps one of the best pieces I've read on how Alito came up through the ranks. Sure, the Post is obsessed with appellation (Reagan's policies weren't just policies but conservative policies), but the Post is also familiar enough with the give and take of luck and preparation so characteristic of political grooming that it doesn't immediately attribute Alito's rise to some cabal of conservative conspirators. It also puts to rest some talking points of the left.
Whereas some people are likely to talk about his role in dismantling affirmative action, the Post evenhandedly provides evidence that Alito was no racist:
And is he going to be a problem to confirm like Bork?
Solid reporting, it would seem.
The Heartless Right
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 10:19AM
A New York Times reporter is killed in a heinous crime, and how do some on the right react? Not too humanely, I'm afraid. Disgracefully, crudely, barbarically, in fact.
A Dignified Statement
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 10:06AM
After his breakfast meeting with Judge Alito, President Bush offered praise for his nominee and guarded optimism for the hearings:
And my hope, of course, is that the American people will be impressed by the process. It's very important that members of the Senate conduct a dignified hearing. The Supreme Court is a dignified body; Sam is a dignified person. And my hope, of course, is that the Senate bring dignity to the process and give this man a fair hearing and an up or down vote on the Senate floor.
Methinks the President isn't holding his breath.
Cantor
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 9:30AM
So Rep. Eric Cantor and his backers are trying to clear the field for House Republican Whip with word that he has upwards of 110 caucus member backing him. Cantor was an early dark horse for GOP Leader, and he is popular among conservatives.
It's interesting that Rep. Mike Pence has not been able to gain any traction coming out of the appropriations fight he so honorably fought.
Not Just a Pretty Face
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 9:30AM
Republicans electing Rep. Mike Pence as majority leader would do more than "send the right message," writes TAS contributor James G. Poulos. With this "rigorous, kinetic, unfreighted" man at the helm, Republicans would regain the initiative.
Setting the Alito Plate
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 9:25AM
So High Noon it is.
Word out of the White House and Capitol Hill is that Samuel Alito will most likely not go the Chief Justice Roberts route and go unscripted for his opening statement.
Committee Chairman Arlen Specter and his staff were working over the weekend to coordinate and map out what will happen today. Specter appears ready, according to sources, to push back against his liberal critics and give him some running room. We shall see.
As we learn more, we'll post more.
Jumping the Filibuster Gun
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 7:53AM
If I were a Senate Democrat who had it out for Judge Alito, I would keep a much better poker face than the showboaters who hit the TV studios Sunday morning. I would say I'm looking forward to hearing from the nominee, have some concerns, and remain firm but upbeat. But instead Schumer, Feinstein, Leahy, and Kennedy openly threaten a filibuster before the hearings even begin. How do they expect to be taken seriously when they show their cards before Alito's said anything in the hearings?
Welcome, John!
Posted by on 1.9.06 @ 6:03AM
My son and I consider "The John Batchelor Show" the one absolutely indispensable radio broadcast. To our disappointment, WRKO in Boston (THE Talk Station, as they style themselves) has dropped the Batchelor show in an evening re-shuffle. The Celtics occupy most early evenings; the post-10 slot gets a re-run of Michael Savage.
With my birthday coming up, I have asked my wife for two long-range AM radio antennas so we can reliably pull in New York's WABC.
You will be a credit to the AmspecBlog, John. Welcome, welcome!
Sunday, January 8, 2006
Zbiggy's Sour Choice
Posted by on 1.8.06 @ 6:34PM
Zbigniew Brzezinski - he whose Solomonic wisdom led us from the Shah to the Mullahs' kakistocracy - has delivered himself of another masterpiece in today's WaPo. He, like the rest of the lib hierarchy, can't stand the idea that we can and may win in Iraq. So he rephrases the "cut and run" suggestion of Pelosi, Murtha and the rest into a choice between "cut and run" (which he paraphrases to a 'relatively prompt disengagement') and a prolonged military occupation that the American people won't support. Does anyone doubt his preference?
Zbiggy says the prez should call in several Dems (such as George Mitchell) to redefine victory. How? In terms of "...an attainable yet tolerable outcome in Iraq." In other words, Brzezinski wants to redefine victory in terms of an acceptable level of defeat. Anyone who is surprised, please go to the back of the class.
Lear in Damascus
Posted by on 1.8.06 @ 6:13PM
Trusted source reports that a failed palace coup in December has left the al-Assad clan of Damascus in an Elizabethan state, with no safe resolution available. King Lear is dead, and the wretchedly banal and predictable children fight on for the throne.
Aged, bitter Hosni Mubarak and the unstable Egyptian Intelligence back the momentary President Bashar al-Assad, who damaged his credibility as an Arab warlord when he ordered the murder of Rafik Hariri last winter. King Abdullah of Arabia and French Intelligence back a combination of younger brother Maher al-Assad and his brother-in-law Intelligence Chief and skilled assassin Assef Shawqat, both supported by sister Bushra al-Assad, who is the vital powerbroker of the throne room; however, that palace coup failed in December, leaving a stalemate between brothers and sister.
Meanwhile Crown Prince Sultan of Arabia and his ambitious son Bandar favor a Sunni solution, an unnamed alternative to the al-Assads. Yet the Saudis lack conviction: they are reluctant schemers, filled with self-doubt, inferiority, weak imaginations.
Then the third act twisted within the last several days. A Syrian Air Force general who knows all the secrets of the last 34 years of thuggery, intrigue, regicide, greed, and collaboration with Saddam's Baathists defected to British Intelligence, and he brought with him an iron-minded solution: restore Rifaat al-Assad, the deposed, exiled, disgraced, bloody-handed brother of the dead Learish potentate Hafez al-Assad.
The Americans, led by the frightened, deaf, naïve, Davos-obsessed State Department, refuse to entertain credible alternatives to the inept Bashar or vengeful Bushra; however, the momentary American choice for the throne is a nameless weakling, hiding in Los Angeles.
On Saturday, Great Britain closed its embassy in Amman, under terror threat. Why the threat? Perhaps because the al-Assads are paralyzed and must lash out to make Britain pay for aiding the case for the return of the 1982 butcher of Hammah, Rifaat al-Assad.
What happens next is wormwood, wormwood, wormwood. Pull up a seat. Not too close. Blood splatters.
A Clear View From Down Under
Posted by on 1.8.06 @ 4:54PM
The Sydney Morning Herald has a great analysis of the Bush presidency -- this from our ever-steady friends in Oz. From the piece, entitled "Bush Survives -- with a little help from his enemies," comes also this gem about the Democrats:
There's something else Bush has going for him: a politically inept and hopelessly divided Democratic Party in which it is never clear who speaks for it on any issue.The excuse Democrats make for their ineptitude is that they control neither house of Congress nor the White House, which means they are virtually powerless to influence, let alone dictate, policy. But that does not explain why the leadership of the party in Congress is so mediocre or why, after John Kerry's bitter defeat in November 2004 because he couldn't decide where he stood on Iraq or the war on terrorism, the Democrats can't make up their minds where they stand on either issue.
Why can this fact be so easily acknowledged abroad, but those inside the Beltway remain blind to it? It's called "having a message," people. And is all the better for Republicans as they head into another important election year.
Schiavo Sharon
Posted by on 1.8.06 @ 3:06PM
Ariel Sharon's grave condition has become a political event that can be and will be manipulated by the succession crisis in Jerusalem and the Sharon family troubles.
When and if the life support systems are turned off, Sharon will fail quickly if not immediately. Therefore all preparation of the state funeral now turns on that moment: security, transportation, accommodation. The funeral will be the gathering of the clans that defines the last of the 20th century order of battle: the ancien regime marching behind Sharon the way it marched behind King Edward's hearse in 1910 in London.
More, the funeral will be a sharp break with Sharonism, and this does not favor the unremarkable Ehud Olmert. There is motive for Olmert and the quarreling players of the unborn Forward Party (including the decaying Peres), to delay the funeral as long as possible in the 100 day run-up to the election in order to feed on the sympathy vote for a fallen hero.
At the same time, Sharon's eldest son Omri is under threat of jail time for corruption and is facing even more charges over other graft deals. There is motive for the Sharon Family -- two sons of uncertain political loyalty -- to delay the death while they work out a deal with prosecutors over the legacy of their celebrated patriarch See Horatio Nelson legacy and the betrayed Emma Hamilton.
The longer the delay of the natural order of things -- Sharon is Schiavo writ large -- the more dangerous and cynical the game. Olmert, Netanyahu, Peres, Peretz, Shalom, Mofaz, all of them watch for their moment to lay claim to (undefinable) Sharonism at the graveside. They just need a grave to start their stem-winding praises of Caesar.
And what is the U.S. risk here? Sharon was the Bush administration Mid-East policy since the fall of Baghdad in 2003. Without Sharon, without Arafat, without certainty, let loose the jackals of peace.
Iran's Intent
Posted by on 1.8.06 @ 10:46AM
A Memri translation of a December 3 editorial in an Iranian newspaper states Iran's offer to help establish terrorist militias in other countries. Here's the money quote:
"...Iranian daily Kayhan International urged Muslim countries to establish a paramilitary force patterned after
The daily added, "It is the heroism and the awe of the word Basij that have deterred the global arrogance [i.e. the U.S. and the West] from trying any new military adventure against the territorial integrity of Islamic Iran and its resolve to achieve scientific and technological [i.e. nuclear] progress."
Ahmadinejad will tie Iranian trade and military aid with the establishment of these militias to create an Iranian force inside whichever Muslim countries risk continued ties with Iran. Iran's determined campaign to establish terrorist regimes throughout the Muslim world continues.
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