The Spectacle Blog

A Poll to Think About

By on 7.24.07 | 8:55PM

Not surprisingly the Giuliani team is trumpeting the new Washington Post-ABC news poll which shows him with an enormous 20 pt. lead over John McCain and Fred Thompson (with Gingrich not in the race). We can all do the obligating tut-tutting over early national polls and find contrary polls but it is worth a look at three of the "internals."  First, GOP voters it appears overwhelmingly think he is the most electable candidate. Perhaps the more likely a Hillary nominee, the more important "electability" and the perception that Rudy could be the one to expand the geographic playing field for the GOP. If you can't bear the thought of Hillary, let alone Bill back in the Oval Office, you may be willing to overlook a few differences on issues.  Second, Giuliani also has a "reverse gender gap"-- 41% of GOP women and 32% of men support him. Those darned "security moms" sure have a way of popping up each election. Are women more taken with the 9-11 image of someone who will keep the country safe? Does the “he cleaned up New York" theme resonate more with women who are concerned about personal safety? Third, 54% of GOP voters -- a tad higher than any other GOP contender -- think he is "about right" on social issues. We have gotten past the point where his opponents can claim that GOP voters are simply ignorant about Giuliani's social views (only 7% have no opinion). It seems GOP voters may be making their peace with him on this score.

 

Giuliani of course still may not win. It is way too early to declare a winner or even a safe bet. Thompson could live up to expectations or McCain could revive or social conservatives could finally rally around Mitt Romney. That said, some pundits are going to have to drop the assumption that the GOP is incapable of selecting someone who is not pro-life.

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