John: A friend of mine described Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. Casey is going to have to do better than leading people to think that he will raise taxes and that he is no different from other Democrats on values issues. And, as you are well aware, the immigration issue has been HUGE this year. It animates many voters and I'm betting a lot of them are paying attention.
As for the polls, two things: I should have pointed out that a few months ago Casey was ahead of Santorum by close to twenty points, so his lead clearly is shrinking. The second one is embarrassing. The first poll I referred to was from last year. Oh boy. This D.C. heat is really getting to me.