The Spectacle Blog
Also, said friend told me he was at a party for GOP volunteers where the mood was quite glum. Lots of dispirited people complaining about Iraq, gay marriage, immigration, and spending. Some were declining to volunteer this time around on election day. Others were looking foward to 2008.
The party ended early.
A friend sends me the link to this article:
Reps. Christopher Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons - GOP moderates in a Democratic-leaning state - have been on everyone's vulnerable list for months. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to win the House, and the three Connecticut districts consistently have been part of the calculation. Lieberman has the support of 73 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of independents, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday. Schlesinger trailed far behind in single digits in the head-to-head matchup. Lieberman's coattails could carry the GOP incumbents to re-election and undercut Democratic hopes of majority control of the House. "It does help me," Shays said in a recent interview. "I know there will be a lot of Republicans who will vote for him, as well as a lot of independents and Democrats. ... Joe is the kind of person who reaches across the political divide, and I am like that as well."
Said friend writes:
Yes, the article I linked to described the write-in procedure as well, and you're right, most likely it's too complicated and Republicans will lose the seat. But the conventional wisdom has been that the seat is a sure pickup for Democrats, so I found it worth noting that a Gibbs win is within the realm of possibility.
ATT MR. and MS. MIDDLE CLASS FAMILY
Would gas at $7 per gallon - jumping up all at once - influence your lifestyle?
If so - be worried - because $7 / gallon is roughly the monetized equivalent of letting the Democrats allow the Bush's tax cuts to sunset out.
Figure one thousand gallons of gas per year, and figure a tax rise (including vanishing child tax credits) of $4,000. Place those four thousand dollars onto the thousand gallons of gas and - voila - you have $7 at the pump.
Phillip: In theory, the seat is up for grabs. In practice, I doubt it. The mechanism for casting a write-in vote, explained here, is just way too cumbersome. (Since Sekula-Gibbs had to drop the hyphen from her name in campaign materials to accomodate the voting machines, why didn't she go ahead and campaign as the easier-to-spell Shelley Gibbs?)
This is about as good as could have done. I think this story is pretty much over, in the sense that there's nothing much left to put Kerry or other Democrats on the hot seat over. But it may have some lingering electoral resonance; Kerry really pissed off a lot of people (particularly people in military families), and reminded them why they don't quite trust the Democrats. Perhaps enough of them will be motivated to turn out and punch the "R" to make a difference somewhere.
In other news, Perry said that he thought Republicans actually had a chance of winning the Tom Delay seat, and he cited the recent Houston Chronicle poll. That poll found that 35 percent planned to vote for a write-in candidate, which was statistically even with the 36 percent who said they would vote for Nick Lampson, the Democrat. Most of those saying they would support a write-in candidate identified Republican Shelly Sekula-Gibbs as their choice.